Fantasy Football Player Notes

I was all aboard the value train with Rodgers last year, but now that he's coming off his 2020 MVP campaign, he's going to be drafted higher than I'm willing to go. Why? His touchdown rate was 9.1 percent in 2020. Every quarterback who's ever finished with a touchdown rate of 8.5 percent or more has regressed the following season. If we dial that number back to Rodgers' career mark of 6.3 percent, which is still elite, he would've finished as the QB10 instead of the QB2 that he did. He doesn't offer mobility anymore and his offense isn't what we'd describe as "pass heavy." Don't forget that many left him for dead after the 2019 season when he posted QB1-type numbers just 31.3 percent of the time. There's probably an in-between here, but that's the issue: I'm unwilling to pay for last year's performance. In reality, he's a safe QB1 who requires an ultra-high touchdown-rate to finish top-five. The same can be said about Tom Brady, who is likely to come a few rounds later in drafts.