Fantasy Football Player Notes
2021 Draft Rankings
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1.
Patrick Mahomes II
KC (at DEN)
We're now 46 games into Mahomes' career as a starter, and in those games he's totaled QB1-type numbers in 69.6 percent of them. There are just two other quarterbacks who've posted those over 59.5 percent of their career since 2000, and one was Justin Herbert who has just a 15-game sample size. When Mahomes is on the field, he's producing. The question is this: By drafting him in the early rounds, which running back or wide receiver are you passing on to get him, and is the dropoff more from the quarterback you'd get in the later rounds? If you wanted to draft Mahomes in the third round, you can, but know you're going to need to hit on a player or two later in your draft to make up the ground.
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2.
Josh Allen
BUF (vs . NYJ)
All you can ask for out of an NFL quarterback is improvement. Allen has done that every single year, and it's translated to fantasy football as well. His percentage of QB1-type games by year: 41.7 - 43.8 - 56.3. He tallied 26-plus fantasy points in eight games last year, which tied for the most in the league. Even better is that he had just one game that was labeled a bust, which lets you know he's a set-it-and-forget-it quarterback who can be played, regardless of opponent. When spending a high-round pick on a quarterback, that's what you need. Allen can start to be considered around the fourth round.
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3.
Kyler Murray
ARI (vs . SEA)
Murray was extremely good to fantasy managers last year, delivering QB1-type performances 68.8 percent of the time, which was the third-best mark in the league. He wasn't just barely hitting those numbers, either, as he tallied 26-plus fantasy points on eight separate occasions, tied for the most in the league. The Cardinals added A.J. Green and Rondale Moore, while losing Kenyan Drake. This suggests there's going to be more dropbacks, which in turn means more fantasy points. Murray is an every-week starter and worthy of a top-five quarterback selection in the 4th/5th round.
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4.
Lamar Jackson
BAL (vs . PIT)
Do you know how many times Jackson has finished with fewer than 16.5 fantasy points since taking the starting job in 2019? Four. He's posted 21.3 or more fantasy points in 22-of-30 games during that stretch, which is flat-out ridiculous. Since becoming the starter two years ago, he's posted QB1-type numbers in 76.7 percent of his games. The only other quarterback who's posted higher than 64.8 percent in their career is Patrick Mahomes, who's sitting at 69.6 percent. On top of that, Jackson now got better weapons to throw to, yet some are ranking him as the fourth-best quarterback in fantasy? Not me. Jackson should be in the conversation to be the first quarterback off the board.
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5.
Dak Prescott
DAL (at PHI)
Prescott is battling a shoulder injury, but all indications are that he'll be ready for the start of the season. Assuming he is, he should have an outstanding season. Here's a fun fact: Prescott's 27.0 fantasy points per game in 2020 was the second-most all-time. What makes that stat even crazier is that his 4.05 percent touchdown rate was below the league average of 4.80 percent, so there was room for more. Of the top eight single-game performances by quarterbacks in 2020, there was only one quarterback on that list twice: Prescott, and he only played four full games. With the receiving weapons he has available, the sky is the limit, though his ankle injury could hamper his rushing upside in 2021. He's certainly someone who's going to throw for a lot of yards and touchdowns, but you need the rushing upside to get into the top-three conversation, so his risk bumps him out of that conversation.
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6.
Russell Wilson
SEA (at ARI)
Why is Wilson continually hated by the fantasy community? His late-season struggles last year have many avoiding him in 2021, though you shouldn't be one of those people. Over the course of his career (now 144 games), he's posted top-12 type numbers in 50.7 percent of his games, which ranks sixth among quarterbacks who've started 50-plus games since 2000. That's a better career mark than Drew Brees, who was continually drafted as a top-three quarterback during his prime. Wilson has never finished worse than QB11 and has finished as a top-three quarterback in four of the last seven seasons. He's as stable as they come.
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7.
Aaron Rodgers
GB (at DET)
I was all aboard the value train with Rodgers last year, but now that he's coming off his 2020 MVP campaign, he's going to be drafted higher than I'm willing to go. Why? His touchdown rate was 9.1 percent in 2020. Every quarterback who's ever finished with a touchdown rate of 8.5 percent or more has regressed the following season. If we dial that number back to Rodgers' career mark of 6.3 percent, which is still elite, he would've finished as the QB10 instead of the QB2 that he did. He doesn't offer mobility anymore and his offense isn't what we'd describe as "pass heavy." Don't forget that many left him for dead after the 2019 season when he posted QB1-type numbers just 31.3 percent of the time. There's probably an in-between here, but that's the issue: I'm unwilling to pay for last year's performance. In reality, he's a safe QB1 who requires an ultra-high touchdown-rate to finish top-five. The same can be said about Tom Brady, who is likely to come a few rounds later in drafts.
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8.
Justin Herbert
LAC (at LV)
What Herbert did in 2020 was miraculous. There's no two ways about it. To be handed the starting job just one hour before the game in Week 2, then go on to break the rookie record for passing touchdowns (31) is ridiculous. Now, with that being said, he still finished as the QB9 last year while throwing 595 pass attempts, the fourth most in the legaue. Now that he's got a defensive-minded head coach and a healthy defense, we could see the pass attempts dip a bit in 2021, which would certainly hurt his appeal. The Chargers did increase the talent on the offensive line, but also replaced Hunter Henry with Jared Cook, which is a certainly a downgrade. Herbert should still be a solid low-end QB1, but it's tough to see him finishing as a top-five option in 2021.
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9.
Tom Brady
TB (vs . CAR)
To think that Brady would join a new team at 43 years old, have zero offseason, then proceed to throw for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns is mindblowing. He's going to be 44 years old when the season starts, which brings us back to the conversation, "When does he fall off?" I'm done trying to predict that, but it must be factored into his price in fantasy drafts. Was last year a best-case scenario? He finished as the QB8 even with those numbers, as mobility is almost neccesary to finish higher in today's game. Because of that, Brady shouldn't be drafted as anything more than a low-end QB1 with a limited ceiling.
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10.
Ryan Tannehill
TEN (at HOU)
Tannehill has been disrespected by the fantasy community long before Julio Jones was traded there. Tannehill became the starter of the Titans in Week 7 of 2019. Since that time, he's tallied 575.3 fantasy points, which ranks third among quarterbacks, behind only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. That's right... despite ranking 16th in pass attempts during that time (26-game sample size), he's finished with more fantasy points than Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, and Deshaun Watson.
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11.
Jalen Hurts
PHI (vs . DAL)
We saw a glimpse of what Hurts can bring to the table last year, though it was just a four-game sample size. He started four games for the Eagles, and each of those games netted at least 16.3 fantasy points, highlighting a floor that's hard to find. He also flashed upside with a 37.8-point outburst in Week 15 against the Cardinals. The downside is that it was a small sample size, and Hurts appeared to get worse every time out. Even then, it's still a small sample size. There's a new coaching staff, along with a new No. 1 receiver, but if what we saw from Hurts in 2020 was his floor, we're in for a treat in 2021. If he can hone in and improve his accuracy numbers from 2020, there's legitimate top-six quarterback upside.
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12.
Matthew Stafford
LAR (vs . SF)
When you put Stafford's fantasy career alongside his peers, he's essentially the same quarterback as Matt Ryan. The difference? Stafford hasn't had a play-caller to bring out the best in him for quite some time and it's crushed his fantasy upside. Welcome to L.A. where you'll be working with Sean McVay, whose offense has been handicapped with Jared Goff under center. Could this be the change Stafford needed to reach the next level? The only concern would be that the Rams defense is so good, we won't get the volume needed for a pocket passer like Stafford. He has upside to finish as a top-10 option, but knowing his limitations as a rusher (with back problems), he likely won't reach much higher than the QB8-QB10 range.
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13.
Joe Burrow
CIN (at CLE)
When Burrow went down with a torn ACL last year, he was sitting as the QB16 in the fantasy rankings, just behind Jared Goff and Teddy Bridgewater. That's not exactly living up to expectations. He is apparently on track to be back in the lineup for Week 1, but his mobility might be limited, especially to start the year, which will put a damper on his fantasy upside. The good news is that the Bengals improved the offensive line this offseason, as well as drafting Ja'Marr Chase at No. 5 overall based on Burrow's recommendation. He now has one of the best trio of wide receivers in the game, paired with a rebuilding defense, which should be the recipe for plenty of pass attempts. But again, dial back expectations because of his mobility. Burrow is best-served as a high-end QB2 in fantasy this year.
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14.
Matt Ryan
ATL (vs . NO)
We are finally going to see what Ryan looks like without Julio Jones. That doesn't sound appealing, does it? There's actually been 42 games in Ryan's career he's played without Jones. In those games, he's averaged 43.5 fewer yards, 0.13 fewer touchdowns, and 0.07 more interceptions, which may not sound like a lot, but it all adds up to 2.9 fewer fantasy points per game, and it's not as if Ryan was an elite fantasy starter with Jones. On top of that, Ryan has a new head coach, and one whose offenses have ranked 30th and 31st in pass attempts over the last two years. Ryan is going to be a streamer in 2021, so don't draft him as your every-week option.
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15.
Trevor Lawrence
JAC (vs . IND)
While it's typically tough for a rookie quarterback to make it into top-12 territory, Lawrence is likely the exception to the rule. He comes in as an advanced passer who has tremendous touch on his passes that not many rookies do. The Jaguars defense is in clear rebuild mode, which should allow for plenty of pass attempts, making 4,000-plus passing yards likely. On top of that, Lawrence has great mobility and is likely to rush for 400-plus yards and a handful of touchdowns on the ground. That alone should get him into the top-15, with a good chance at top-12.
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16.
Kirk Cousins
MIN (vs . CHI)
Yes, I'm fully aware that Cousins has continually finished as a top-12 quarterback, but my rankings are based on how I'd draft quarterbacks and not where I project them to finish. Why? Well, Cousins has stayed healthy and played all 16 games, allowing him to finish higher than those right around him who missed a game or two. But on a week-to-week basis, you're never going to say Cousins is a top-12 quarterback. He's a rock-solid QB2 in Superflex formats, but he's just a streamer in 1QB leagues. I'd rather draft someone like Trevor Lawrence for upside.
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17.
Tua Tagovailoa
MIA (vs . NE)
It's really unfair to judge Tagovailoa after a pretty weak rookie season, as he dealt with an injury throughout the offseason, had no preseason, and plenty of injuries to his pass catchers. On top of that, he had Ryan Fitzpatrick breathing down his neck. Fast forward to 2021 where Fitzpatrick is gone, and the Dolphins have added Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle to his stable of pass catchers. If his injuries really limited him in 2020, we could see an explosion in 2021 with the firepower they have at wide receiver, but don't automatically assume that.
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18.
Baker Mayfield
CLE (vs . CIN)
We watched Mayfield take major strides in Kevin Stefanski's offense as the year went on in 2020, but it's important to remember that he didn't throw the ball more than 33 times in 12-of-16 games. They want to play good defense and run the ball as much as possible, which makes Mayfield much more efficient. While he's a great target in 2QB leagues, there's rarely a week-to-week ceiling to his projection.
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19.
Ben Roethlisberger
PIT (at BAL)
It's rare to see a quarterback who has three wide receivers being drafted inside the top-30 and a running back being drafted as a borderline top-12 option, yet he's not being drafted as a fantasy starter. That's the case with Roethlisberger. He's not going to finish as a top-five quarterback or anything, but Roethlisberger has thrown at least 28 touchdowns in each of the last six seasons he's played more than 12 games. He's a perfectly fine QB2 in Superflex/2QB formats.
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20.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
WAS (at NYG)
This might seem weird to some, but Fitzpatrick has produced QB1-type numbers in 18-of-37 games over the last four years (includes seven games where he threw 18 or less passes). Do you know how many quarterbacks posted QB1-type numbers in better than 50 percent of their games in 2020? 10 of them. That's it. Under Scott Turner, the Panthers threw the ball 633 times with Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, and Will Grier in 2019. Then, in 2020, Washington threw the ball 599 times with Dwayne Haskins, Alex Smith, and Kyle Allen.
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21.
Justin Fields
CHI (at MIN)
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22.
Derek Carr
LV (vs . LAC)
The article I write every year titled, "Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between," highlights the both the consistency a player offers, as well as his upside. Carr has no upside. Over the last two years under Jon Gruden, Carr has played 32 games. In those games, he's delivered QB1-type performances just 14 times (43.8 percent), and a "boom" performance just one time (3.1 percent). I'd rather take shots on the rookie quarterbacks who might not start out of the gate, as Carr certainly wouldn't be your QB1.
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23.
Jameis Winston
NO (at ATL)
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24.
Trey Lance
SF (at LAR)
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25.
Daniel Jones
NYG (vs . WAS)
When you throw 11 touchdowns in 14 games in today's NFL, that's a problem. Sure, Jones didn't have top-tier pass catchers last year, but Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Golden Tate were competent. The Giants seem to believe Jones was simply lacking weapons, so they went out and signed Kenny Golladay and Kyle Rudolph, and then drafted Kadarius Toney in the first round. Based on what we've seen from Jones to this point, it's tough saying he's anything more than a boom-or-bust quarterback who'll need some rushing totals in order to make him streamer-worthy.
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26.
Sam Darnold
CAR (at TB)
Ok, we're out of excuses for Darnold. It's now or never and he's getting his shot in Joe Brady's pass-friendly offense with some tremendous weapons. The one issue that remains, however, is that his offensive line is brutal. Despite that, Teddy Bridgewater was able to post 19-plus fantasy points in seven games last year, and that was while throwing just 15 touchdowns. The Panthers traded him for essentially nothing, and then passed on Justin Fields and Mac Jones in the draft, so they clearly believe Darnold can be their long-term answer. I don't want to hold it against Darnold that he had to play for Adam Gase in two of his first three seasons, but at the same time, he's thrown more than two touchdowns in just three of his 38 career games to this point and offers minimal fantasy upside on the ground. Because of that, it's hard to see him as a true breakout performer this year, but he should be a great target in Superflex/2QB leagues because he's not going to lose the job anytime soon, so you have an every-week starter.
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27.
Zach Wilson
NYJ (at BUF)
The Jets liked Wilson enough to draft him over Trey Lance and Justin Fields, which tells you just how high they were on him. Judging by ADP on the entire Jets roster, many are still approaching the team as if they're run by Adam Gase. Insider info: They're not. Wilson is locked in as the starter all year long in Mike LaFleur's offense, and fantasy managers need to know about Wilson's upside as a rusher. Even Daniel Jones, who threw for 11 touchdowns in 14 games last year and missed two games, finished as a top-24 quarterback due to his 423 yards and one touchdown on the ground. Wilson is going to finish as a top-20 fantasy quarterback in year one.
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28.
Carson Wentz
IND (at JAC)
Wentz has returned to practice following foot surgery, and there remains an outside chance that he'll return for Week 1. If so, there's some reason to be intrigued. We've legitimately seen Wentz perform as a top-five fantasy quarterback in Frank Reich's offense, so this one speaks for itself. The Colts offensive line might be better than the one the Eagles had in those days, though they'll need Eric Fisher healthy as soon as possible. Despite his bad 2020 season, Wentz has posted QB1-type numbers in 44.1 percent of the games in his career, which ranks as the 16th best quarterback over the last 15 years.
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29.
Jared Goff
DET (vs . GB)
If you were thinking the hate went too far with Goff and that he might be a decent streamer/platoon option, think again. His start to the season is a nightmare and it really doesn't get any better as it goes on. The first seven weeks include the 49ers, Packers, Ravens, Bears, Vikings, and Rams. If you want to find a great matchup, you have to wait all the way until Week 16. The Lions offense isn't one you should aggressively attack in fantasy drafts.
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30.
Teddy Bridgewater
DEN (vs . KC)
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31.
Mac Jones
NE (at MIA)
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32.
Jimmy Garoppolo
SF (at LAR)
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33.
Tyrod Taylor
HOU (vs . TEN)
If I'm being honest, I want nothing to do with the Texans this year. That's rare for me to say, as I'm a value-based fantasy manager, but I just don't see value on this team. Watson has stood by the fact that he doesn't want to play for the Texans and isn't participating in camp. On top of that, he might be facing a suspension by the NFL for his pending assault cases. We talk about how easy replacing a quarterback is in fantasy every year, so why would we risk a draft pick on Watson? Unless it's one of your final picks, I would just avoid the situation. Taylor has given us fantasy-viable performances in the past, but the last time that happened was in 2017, when he had much more mobility than he does today. Despite starting at least 14 games in three straight seasons with the Bills, Taylor never threw for more than 3,035 yards in a season. He's now 33 years old and playing for 65-year-old David Culley with one of the worst supporting casts in the league. He also has the Texans third-round pick Mills waiting in the wings. This is one of those situations where I'm okay being wrong if one of these quarterbacks pans out.
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34.
Taysom Hill
NO (at ATL)
As of now, the Saints are undecided on who the starting quarterback will be heading into the 2021 season. If it's Hill, he's going to jump all the way up into the top-15 quarterback conversation. If I knew he'd start all 17 games, he'd be ranked top-10 for his rushing upside, but it seems like Jameis Winston has the slight edge heading into camp. Do you think that sounds crazy? It's not. Hill was the QB6 during the month he started while Drew Brees was out. This is a battle we'll be watching closely as the season nears.
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35.
Drew Lock
DEN (vs . KC)
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36.
Andy Dalton
CHI (at MIN)
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37.
Deshaun Watson
HOU (vs . TEN)
The Texans want Watson to play for them. Watson doesn't want to play for them. Watson wants to be traded. No team wants the PR nightmare that would come with a trade for Watson. Also, the Texans don't want to trade him. The NFL might also step in and suspend Watson for these off-the-field incidents. It's not one obstacle, it's many of them. He shouldn't be on your redraft radar for the time being.
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38.
Cam Newton
CAR (at TB)
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39.
Davis Mills
HOU (vs . TEN)
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40.
Taylor Heinicke
WAS (at NYG)
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41.
Gardner Minshew II
PHI (vs . DAL)
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42.
Jacob Eason
SEA (at ARI)
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43.
Jordan Love
GB (at DET)
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44.
Mitchell Trubisky
BUF (vs . NYJ)
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45.
Marcus Mariota
LV (vs . LAC)
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46.
Jacoby Brissett
MIA (vs . NE)
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47.
Kellen Mond
MIN (vs . CHI)
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48.
P.J. Walker
CAR (at TB)
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49.
Dwayne Haskins
PIT (at BAL)
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50.
Kyle Trask
TB (vs . CAR)
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51.
Nick Foles
CHI (at MIN)
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52.
Sam Ehlinger
IND (at JAC)
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53.
John Wolford
LAR (vs . SF)
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54.
Chad Henne
KC (at DEN)
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55.
Brandon Allen
CIN (at CLE)
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56.
Joe Flacco
NYJ (at BUF)
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57.
Case Keenum
CLE (vs . CIN)
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58.
Mason Rudolph
PIT (at BAL)
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59.
Tyler Huntley
BAL (vs . PIT)
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60.
C.J. Beathard
JAC (vs . IND)
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61.
Colt McCoy
ARI (vs . SEA)
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62.
Chase Daniel
LAC (at LV)
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63.
Jarrett Stidham
NE (at MIA)
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64.
Kyle Allen
WAS (at NYG)
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65.
Mike Glennon
NYG (vs . WAS)
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66.
Geno Smith
SEA (at ARI)
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67.
Cooper Rush
DAL (at PHI)
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68.
Blaine Gabbert
TB (vs . CAR)
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69.
Logan Woodside
TEN (at HOU)
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70.
Feleipe Franks
ATL (vs . NO)
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71.
Mike White
NYJ (at BUF)
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72.
Tim Boyle
DET (vs . GB)
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73.
Nick Mullens
CLE (vs . CIN)
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74.
David Blough
DET (vs . GB)
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75.
Garrett Gilbert
NE (at MIA)
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76.
Trace McSorley
ARI (vs . SEA)
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77.
Josh Rosen
ATL (vs . NO)
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78.
Jeff Driskel
HOU (vs . TEN)
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79.
Chris Streveler
BAL (vs . PIT)
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80.
Ian Book
NO (at ATL)
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81.
James Morgan
IND (at JAC)
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82.
Will Grier
DAL (at PHI)
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83.
Easton Stick
LAC (at LV)
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84.
Jake Fromm
NYG (vs . WAS)
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85.
Blake Bortles
FA (BYE)
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86.
Bryce Perkins
LAR (vs . SF)
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87.
Jacob Easton
FA (BYE)
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88.
Shane Buechele
KC (at DEN)
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89.
Joshua Dobbs
PIT (at BAL)
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90.
Brett Rypien
DEN (vs . KC)
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91.
Nathan Peterman
LV (vs . LAC)
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92.
Jamie Newman
FA (BYE)
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93.
Clayton Thorson
NYG (vs . WAS)
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94.
Ryan Finley
FA (BYE)
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95.
Matt Barkley
CAR (at TB)
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96.
Brian Hoyer
NE (at MIA)
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97.
Drew Stanton
FA (BYE)
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98.
Danny Etling
FA (BYE)
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99.
Sean Mannion
MIN (vs . CHI)
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100.
Trevor Siemian
NO (at ATL)
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101.
Kurt Benkert
GB (at DET)
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102.
Jake Luton
MIA (vs . NE)
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103.
Brett Hundley
IND (at JAC)
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104.
Reid Sinnett
PHI (vs . DAL)
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105.
Nate Sudfeld
SF (at LAR)
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106.
Jake Rudock
FA (BYE)
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107.
Kyle Shurmur
WAS (at NYG)
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108.
Kyle Lauletta
JAC (vs . IND)
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109.
Ryan Griffin
TB (vs . CAR)
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110.
Jake Browning
CIN (at CLE)
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111.
Ben DiNucci
DAL (at PHI)
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112.
DeShone Kizer
FA (BYE)
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113.
Robert Griffin III
FA (BYE)
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114.
Jordan Ta'amu
DET (vs . GB)
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116.
Collin Hill
FA (BYE)
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117.
Matt Schaub
FA (BYE)
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118.
Jarrett Lee
FA (BYE)
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119.
Davis Webb
BUF (vs . NYJ)
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120.
Brian Lewerke
NYG (vs . WAS)
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121.
Josh Johnson
NYJ (at BUF)
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122.
Nate Stanley
FA (BYE)
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