Fantasy Football Player Notes

I'm convinced that because Adams missed part of the 2019 season, many don't realize just how consistent he's been over the last few years. He's played 27 games over the last two years, and he's scored 16-plus PPR points in 23 of them. The Packers didn't add a wide receiver in the draft, so it's not likely his massive target-share is going away. He's the only other receiver who should be considered close to Michael Thomas in drafts.

Despite having Aaron Rodgers under center, the Packers decided to add a third-string running back and fullback to their roster on Day 2 of the NFL Draft. Is that worrisome to Jones' production? Maybe a bit, as Matt LaFleur seems to want to continue his timeshare ways. Jones is by far the most talented, so even if we were to see him dip down to 13-15 touches per game, that's enough for him to do damage, especially considering Rodgers targets him in the passing game. Jones is one of just two running backs (Alvin Kamara is the other) who've finished with a top-30 season over the last 10 years with less than 300 touches. Jones is one of the most efficient running backs in football, though the coaching staff keeps him in RB2 territory.

How did we get here? Rodgers was the poster child for consistency in fantasy football. He may not have had the Lamar Jackson upside, but you knew he would finish as a top-five quarterback as long as he was healthy. Last year was the first time he finished worse than the No. 7 quarterback while playing at least 10 games. His QB9 finish was worse than it appears at first sight. Rodgers actually finished with fewer than 15 fantasy points in 10-of-16 games. There were four games that essentially carried him through the season, and those games were against the Raiders, Giants, Chiefs, and Eagles. Three of those were among the worst in football. Fortunately, Rodgers has a semi-decent schedule in 2020, as he'll play the Lions twice, Panthers, Falcons, Texans, and Jaguars defenses during the fantasy season. Was it the new offense he was learning? Was it the lack of weapons to throw to? Neither has changed, so it's tough to say he'll return to the Rodgers we all know and love as fantasy players, but his cost doesn't reflect that it's even a possibility, as he's being drafted outside the top-10 quarterbacks. If you're one of those fantasy owners who refuses to spend up at quarterback, taking a shot on Rodgers in the eighth or ninth round would make plenty of sense. He's 36 years old and has seven top-two finishes under his belt.

We had to wonder whether it'd be Lazard or Devin Funchess as the starting receiver opposite Davante Adams, but after finding out that Funchess opted out, it should be Lazard's job. Despite only being a part of the offense in 10 games, Lazard racked up 52 targets last year, including 17 of them in the final two games that he turned into 114 yards and a touchdown. That pace of targets over a 16-game season would add up to 83.2, which is certainly enough to be relevant, and there's obviously room for growth with the departure of Geronimo Allison. Aaron Rodgers has continually gone to bat for Lazard, and that's something to latch onto, as Rodgers did the same thing for Davante Adams back when he struggled at the start of his career. Lazard isn't someone you should rely on for WR3 production right out of the gate, but it's certainly within the realm of possibilities knowing that Rodgers trusts him. If you can land him as your WR5/6, there aren't many in that territory who offer the target upside Lazard does without injury in front of them.

Some believe Dillon is going to walk in and destroy the value of someone like Aaron Jones, while others say he negates the role of Jamaal Williams. I don't know if he does either, but when a team spends a second-round pick on a running back, they typically have a plan for them. Over the last seven years, running backs drafted in the second round average 172.3 touches in their rookie season. Dillon is just an early-down back, so he'll be extremely touchdown dependent. Knowing how good Jones has been in that role, it's tough to take him off the field, so I'm fine with going the wait-and-see approach with Dillon (and every other non-Jones back in this backfield).

It's tough to say Williams will be the running back behind Aaron Jones on the Packers' depth chart, but it's also tough to say he shouldn't be, as he was extremely effective in his role last year. But them drafting A.J. Dillon in the second round screams "he's the guy" behind Jones, and potentially the one even stealing some goal-line work from Jones. Because of that, Williams is not someone you need to draft in shallow leagues. It's best to see how this backfield shakes out before commiting a bench spot on a handcuff.

Crosby is coming off the most accurate year of his career (91.7% on field goals, 40-of-41 extra-point attempts converted). But he saw just 24 field goal attempts after seeing 37 the previous year. The Packers offense isn't what it once was, and Crosby spends the majority of his games kicking outside in cold weather. He's a borderline draftable kicker but there's little to get excited about in 2020.

It seems that Valdes-Scantling got on the bad side of Aaron Rodgers early in his career, and then a move from the slot to the perimeter essentially decimated his fantasy potential. But did something happen this offseason that could get him back on track to the top-40 receiver he was being drafted as in 2019 fantasy drafts? Geronimo Allison was allowed to let walk in free agency, vacating the slot role once again. Valdes-Scantling seems like the natural replacement, as Davante Adams and Allen Lazard aren't primary slot receivers. That's great news considering Valdes-Scantling has averaged 1.02 more fantasy points per target in the slot than he has on the perimeter. That's the second-highest gap in football over the last two years, so you can say he's slot-dependent. If he can get back on Aaron Rodgers' good side, he'll have some streamer-worthy weeks.

He was a popular late-round pick earlier this offseason, but after he was placed on the COVID list and forced to miss out on training camp, he's falling further down draft boards, and most of the time not being drafted at all. Packers tight ends have failed to eclipse 103 targets combined in six of the last seven years. It typically takes 80-plus targets for a tight end to finish in TE1 territory without tons of touchdowns, and though Rodgers has thrown plenty of those, his tight ends haven't combined for more than nine touchdowns in each of those seven seasons. This would be Sternberger's first trip into the starting lineup, so it's tough to expect much from a young tight end, even though I did like him as a prospect last year. He's someone that you'll be able to use as a streamer from time-to-time, but he won't be your every-week solution at tight end.

The Packers are apparently "looking forward" to getting St. Brown back in the lineup after an injury-plagued season in 2019. What exactly does that mean? I'm not sure, but it seems he'll be in the mix now that Devin Funchess has opted out. Knowing the Packers wide receivers totaled just 306 targets last year, it's hard to say that their No. 4 option should be drafted, especially when Davante Adams averages 11.0 targets per game over the last two years, but he's a name to keep on waiver wire speed dial in case anything changes. Aaron Rodgers has supported multiple fantasy relevant receivers plenty of times.