Fantasy Football Player Notes

Drafters were expecting Aaron Jones to lead the Green Bay Packers in receptions and receiving yards in the post-Davante Adams lineup, which did not come to fruition. Although his 59 catches did rank second on the team behind only Allen Lazard, Jones caught fewer passes than the year before. His catches per game (3.5) were identical to the year before. He saw a career-high in targets (72), but that was based on his 17 games played. His 4.3 targets per game were also identical to the year before. And Jones was the epitome of a boom-or-bust running back that his fantasy managers are too familiar with that isn't super obvious based on his RB9 finish and RB12 status in points per game. A.J. Dillon got more involved in the second half of the season, especially in the red zone. From Week 9 onward, Dillon out-carried Jones inside the 10-yard line 14 to 5. And they scored the same amount of points total from Week 11 through Week 17, with Dillion scoring 6 rushing TDs. If Dillon's goal-line role carries over from the tail-end of the 2022 season, that significantly could hinder Jones' fantasy upside even after a year that saw the 28-year-old finish second in PFF rushing grade. Dillon finished 5th in PFF rushing grade last season and will hit free agency at the end of the 2023 season.

Christian Watson was the talk of the town after blowing up the Senior Bowl and combine last year. Worries about Watson began to mount for many in camp and during the early part of the season as he dealt with nagging injuries. Once healthy, Watson proved that the cream does rise to the top. He emerged as the Packers' clear number-one wideout. Watson ranked 14th in open rate (per ESPN analytics), 12th in yards per route run, and third in fantasy points per route run. He was fourth in YAC per reception behind only Deebo Samuel, Rondale Moore, and Jaylen Waddle (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). Watson is a strong WR2 that has huge WR1 upside.

Drafters were expecting A.J. Dillon to carve out a formidable role in the Packers backfield in 2022, but he was a complete afterthough for the majority of the season. His highly-touted "red-zone role" resulted in one touchdown (Week 1) in the first 11 weeks in a struggling Green Bay offense. Dillon eventually got more involved in the second half of the season, especially as a red-zone threat. From Week 9 onward, Dillon out-carried teammate Aaron Jones inside the 10-yard line 14 to 5 while splitting snaps exactly 50/50. And they scored the same amount of points total from Week 11 through Week 17, with Dillion scoring six rushing TDs. If Dillon's goal-line usage carries over from the tail-end of the 2022 season, that would significantly hinder Jones' fantasy upside while stabilizing Dillon's fantasy value. The bruising running back finished fifth in PFF rushing grade last season and will hit free agency at the end of the 2023 season. He also flashed top-tier handcuff upside when Jones got banged up versus the Bears in Week 13. Dillon tied a season-high with 18 carries for 93 yards and one touchdown to go along with three catches for 26 yards.

With Aaron Rodgers now with the Jets, Love is expected to become the Packers' starter in 2023 after a three-year apprenticeship. There's precious little to go on here, as Love has made one career start (which didn't go very well) and has attempted just 83 passes since entering the league in 2020. Love has a live arm and above-average mobility, so he has the potential to surprise, but given the lack of data to go on with Love, there's bust potential here, too.

The Green Bay passing attack is wide open after Christian Watson. Reed will be a starter immediately and should have no problems hopping Romeo Doubs in the pecking order. Reed is a good fit for this offensive system with his strong lower half and YAC ability. He should allow easy completions for Jordan Love with the talent to do something with the ball in his hands. He flashed better route running chops at the Senior Bowl in Mobile than I gave him credit for after examining his college film. Grab him at the end of your drafts. He's worth a stash and hold to see how this Packer offense unfolds. He could easily be a weekly flex play that pays huge dividends as we move through the fantasy season.

One of the top pass-catching tight ends in a loaded rookie TE class, Luke Musgrave should have a significant 2023 role with the Packers, who had bare cupboards at the position before the draft. Musgrave is a big target (6-6, 253) and runs like a gazelle (4.61). He has the inside track to start for the Packers right away, but it's not a slam dunk. Green Bay also drafted TE Tucker Kraft in the third round, and Kraft is a good prospect himself.