Fantasy Football Player Notes

Christian Watson got the bag this offseason and should be considered the clear WR1 for the Green Bay Packers. Watson deserved the payday as he proved that he can handle this role last year. Last season, in Weeks 8-18, he was the WR21 in fantasy points per game with an 18.2% target share, 61.1 receiving yards per game, 2.67 yards per route run, a 23.9% first-read share, and 0.122 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). His target share and first-read share should go up this season with Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks gone and Watson likely getting promoted into a full-time role. Last year, he was also held back by a 68% route share (56th out of 109 qualifying receivers). The increase in usage and playing time should make his ultra-efficiency per route even more deadly in 2026. Last year, among those 109 qualifying receivers, Watson ranked fourth in yards per route run, tenth in first downs per route run, and sixth in fantasy points per route run. Watson is a strong WR2 with upside for more in 2026.

Last year, before losing the rest of his season to a torn ACL (Week 9), Tucker Kraft was the TE1 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 1-8, among 33 qualifying tight ends, Kraft ranked seventh in target share (18.3%), first in receiving yards per game (67), second in yards per route run (2.71), seventh in first-read share (21.6%), and second in first downs per route run (0.121, per Fantasy Points Data). Kraft was also a YAC gawd, leading all tight ends in yards after the catch per reception and missed tackles forced per reception. The news out of Packers' camp is that he'll have his snaps monitored for half the season before cutting him loose with a full workload down the back half of the season. I'm not that concerned about it crushing his fantasy value in the early going. In Weeks 1-8, among 45 qualifying tight ends, he was 11th in route share (73.3%), which will obviously see a downtick this season out of the gate, but now we can discuss the reassuring factors of his usage from last season. Among the same sample of tight ends in that stretch, he was also ninth-best in target per route run rate (23%) and third-best in designed target rate (17.9%). I won't be shocked if Green Bay bumps both of those numbers up in the first half of the season, and to be honest, I expect them to. Kraft can maintain TE1 production in the early weeks of the season with top 3-5 upside in the back half of 2026.

MarShawn Lloyd looks primed to enter the NFL season as the Packers' workhorse back with Josh Jacobs on the commissioner-exempt list. Lloyd's stock has risen massively with this news over the weekend, and he should be considered in fantasy football drafts in the late RB2 tier or at the top of the RB3 tier. Just to remind everyone about Lloyd's talent. During his final two collegiate seasons, he was 20th and 16th in yards after contact per attempt, third and 18th in breakaway rate, and fourth and 15th in elusive rating (per PFF, minimum 100 carries). If you're drafting Josh Jacobs this year, Lloyd should be a priority for you. I'll be overweight on Lloyd exposure this season. There's an easy runout for Lloyd where Jacobs is out for most of (maybe all of the fantasy season, and Lloyd is a strong RB2 all year.

Jayden Reed missed much of the 2025 season with a broken collarbone and surgery to repair a Jones fracture. Last year, we got only a five-game sample for Reed where he played at least 35% of the snaps. In those contests, Reed had a 21% target-per-route-run rate, 1.99 yards per route run, and 0.47 fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Those are strong numbers, but the worry for Reed persists into 2026 about his inclusion in two wide receiver sets. Last year, Reed played 75% of his snaps from the slot, which is tough when Green Bay ranked 22nd in usage of 11 personnel (55.6%). That leaves Reed as a capped upside player who can only be counted on as a matchup-specific flex play. I fully expect Matthew Golden to start in two wide receiver sets, which will leave on the outside looking in for many weeks. Reed isn't on my draft board in 2026. If I need receiver help during bye weeks, I'll look for his name on waivers.

Yes, I understand Jordan Love has been a mid-range QB2 over the last two years (QB17, QB16) since his massive breakout in 2023 (QB5), but that hasn't been because Love sucks. He has been locked in a run-first, run-always offense. Could that still be the case this year? Possibly, but if Green Bay increases its pass rate to even league-average standards (last year Weeks 1-15, eighth-best in neutral rushing rate), Love could return to QB1 land. Love has proven over the last three seasons that he can sustain above-average passing touchdown rates (5.5%, 5.9%, 5.2%), so I don't see him backsliding in that category. Last year, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Love was eighth in yards per attempt, fifth in hero throw rate, 15th in catchable target rate, and 13th (tied) in fantasy points per dropback. Love's QB2 production is priced into his ADP; his upside as a QB1 is not.

After all the hype for Matthew Golden last year, he was only a part-time player for Green Bay in his rookie season. He had only five games in which he surpassed a 60% snap share. When he was on the field, he had a 17% target-per-route-run rate, 1.46 yards per route run, and 0.065 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Among 109 qualifying receivers, he was 16th in separation and 67th in route win rate. The separation score is notable, but all of his other metrics and the fact that he had a quiet rookie season leave me unimpressed. Golden can take a step forward this season as the primary running mate with Christian Watson in two-receiver sets, and it can still be uninspiring. The Green Bay passing attack will still flow through Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft this season, with everyone else playing a role or a bit part, or at least that is how I'm projecting it. I'm avoiding Golden in drafts this season.

Josh Jacobs' 2026 outlook is murky at best right now, after being placed on the commissioner's exempt list. Josh Jacobs has been charged with misdemeanor battery and criminal damage. The NFL's selective nature with suspensions in terms of length when they are handed out is all over the map. I wouldn't be surprised to see Jacobs suspended this season, but I would also not be shocked if he wasn't suspended or the suspension didn't hit until the 2027 season. Jacobs could be back with Green Bay in short order or miss most of the fantasy season (maybe all of it). With all of this uncertainty swirling around Jacobs, I'm avoiding him in drafts. Josh Jacobs has been the RB8 and RB9 in fantasy points per game during his two seasons in Green Bay. he dealt with a knee injury last season, which impacted his snap share and effectiveness. Last year, after Week 6, he surpassed 60% of the snaps in only two games. Last year, he ranked 22nd in explosive run rate and 19th in missed tackle rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Jacobs' touchdown equity in the Green Bay offense has helped him a ton over the last two seasons, as he has averaged 15 total touchdowns per season while ranking ninth and fifth in red zone touches. Jacobs is a wild-card pick for the 2026 fantasy season. If you select him, I would prioritize MarShawn Lloyd in your draft plan.

The Packers didn't win a game after losing edge rusher Micah Parsons last season. Until he returns, it's hard to be overly bullish on this DST to start the year. 24th in the projections.

Plagued by erratic kicking in recent years, the Packers spent a sixth-round draft pick on University of Florida kicker Trey Smack, who seems to be a near-lock to win Green Bay's kicker job. The Packers have released their 2025 kicker, Brandon McManus. Smack made 53-of-64 field goals (82.8%) in three college seasons with the Gators. Smack has a powerful leg and set a school record by hitting 10 field goals of 50 yards or longer. Two reasons why fantasy managers should be wary of Smack: (1) Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is aggressive in going for it on fourth down, and (2) late-season games in Lambeau Field tend to have suboptimal kicking weather.