Fantasy Football Player Notes
2021 Draft Rankings
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7.
Aaron Jones
RB - (at DET)
I do an article every year highlighting which players performed better than expected based on where their touches took place, as well as how many carries/targets they receive. Aaron Jones has finished No. 7, No. 4, No. 4, and No. 16 over the last four years on that list, which highlights just how good he is. During that time, he's scored 143.4 more fantasy points than the average running back would've. Him and Alvin Kamara are much more similar than most realize. You take proven production at the top of drafts, and Jones has proven it time-and-time again. If Aaron Rodgers doesn't ever show up to the Packers, he does lose a bit of his touchdown upside, though.
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11.
Davante Adams
WR - (at DET)
If you're planning on taking a wide receiver in the first round, you'd better make sure he's going to perform without question. Adams is that player, as he's performed as a WR1 in 22 of his last 41 games (53.7 percent), which is historically good, and it's a three-year sample size. During that time, he's scored fewer than 11.1 PPR points just four times, and once was due to leaving with an injury. As long as Aaron Rodgers is with the Packers, Adams will be a can't-miss WR1.
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70.
Aaron Rodgers
QB - (at DET)
I was all aboard the value train with Rodgers last year, but now that he's coming off his 2020 MVP campaign, he's going to be drafted higher than I'm willing to go. Why? His touchdown rate was 9.1 percent in 2020. Every quarterback who's ever finished with a touchdown rate of 8.5 percent or more has regressed the following season. If we dial that number back to Rodgers' career mark of 6.3 percent, which is still elite, he would've finished as the QB10 instead of the QB2 that he did. He doesn't offer mobility anymore and his offense isn't what we'd describe as "pass heavy." Don't forget that many left him for dead after the 2019 season when he posted QB1-type numbers just 31.3 percent of the time. There's probably an in-between here, but that's the issue: I'm unwilling to pay for last year's performance. In reality, he's a safe QB1 who requires an ultra-high touchdown-rate to finish top-five. The same can be said about Tom Brady, who is likely to come a few rounds later in drafts.
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82.
Robert Tonyan
TE - (at DET)
Despite having fewer than half the targets, receptions, and yards of Travis Kelce, Tonyan tied Kelce for the most touchdowns by a tight end in 2020 with 11, and he was second among tight ends in yards per target. Despite his nose for the end zone, though, he had only 11 red zone targets (just the 19th-most among tight ends), so his production near the goal-line almost certainly isn't repeatable absent a change in usage. Tonyan should be viewed as a borderline top-10 option. Even with some natural touchdown regression, he should still have plenty of value playing with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, particularly with the lack of many other established options in the passing game.
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97.
AJ Dillon
RB - (at DET)
We've watched Jamaal Williams get 226 carries and 80 targets in 28 games under Matt LaFleur, and he wasn't someone this regime drafted in the second round. That amounts to 10.9 touches per game, which is enough for most running backs to be considered a flex-type start. The issue with Dillon is that he's not likely going to be involved in the passing game, as Aaron Jones is a far superior receiver, and the Packers do throw quite a bit on the goal-line when Aaron Rodgers is under center. Dillon is essentially someone who's a touchdown-dependent flex option most weeks, but offers legitimate RB1 upside if Jones were to miss any time.
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202.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR - (at DET)
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214.
Randall Cobb
WR - (at DET)
Now that Cobb is back in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers, he's back on the fantasy radar. Knowing Rodgers specifically requested for the Packers to get Cobb back, it tells you he's getting opportunity right out of the gate, though it's worth noting he's never played in Matt LaFleur's offense. We shouldn't go overboard, though. The last three seasons Cobb was in Green Bay, he averaged 6.4 targets, 4.4 receptions, 44.5 yards, and 0.27 touchdowns per game, which extrapolate to 70 receptions, 712 yards, and four touchdowns over a full 16-game season. My guess would be that Cobb is a solid bye-week filler who'll offer a solid floor.
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229.
Allen Lazard
WR - (at DET)
When the Packers drafted Amari Rodgers, who has a lot of Randall Cobb to his game, Lazard's projection became unclear. He was the Packers primary slot receiver last year, playing 53 percent of his snaps in the slot. So, it's either they move Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the bench and put Lazard in his place, or all three of them rotate on the field, which is certainly not ideal for fantasy purposes. Lazard had his shot at a breakout, but unfortunately, it didn't happen.
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232.
Green Bay Packers
DST - (at DET)
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241.
Mason Crosby
K - (at DET)
Crosby had just 16 field-goal attempts, easily the least among any kicker that played a full season. But he also had 63 extra-point attempts, the most among kickers. In essence, Crosby was a victim of Aaron Rodgers' dominance once the Packers got near the end zone. There should be at least some natural regression to the mean this year (he had averaged 31 field-goal attempts in his 13 other seasons), and given that Crosby converted all of his field-goal tries, there's no reason to expect a decline. He's a borderline started in 12-team leagues, but ignore the low volume from last year.
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288.
Amari Rodgers
WR - (at DET)
The trade for Randall Cobb all but ruined the potential value of Rodgers, who was facing an uphill battle as-is. I say that because Aaron Rodgers isn't someone who develops chemistry with his wide receivers immediately, and not just that, but the two haven't played together at all with Aaron missing all offseason programs. Amari has actually been raised around Cobb because his dad was Cobb's receivers coach at the University of Kentucky, so there should be good tutelage during Amari's rookie season, but it's tough to see him getting meaningful touches in the offense right away, and even if he does get on the field, he has to earn Aaron's trust. If you go back through Aaron's time with the Packers, you'll see that practically every receiver took time to turn into a fantasy option, including Davante Adams.
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336.
Kylin Hill
RB - (at DET)
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432.
Jordan Love
QB - (at DET)
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489.
Marcedes Lewis
TE - (at DET)
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531.
Equanimeous St. Brown
WR - (at DET)
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556.
Josiah Deguara
TE - (at DET)
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561.
Malik Taylor
WR - (at DET)
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667.
Blake Bortles
QB - (at DET)
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668.
Patrick Taylor Jr.
RB - (at DET)
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674.
Dominique Dafney
TE - (at DET)
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693.
Isaac Nauta
TE - (at DET)
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851.
Juwann Winfree
WR - (at DET)
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897.
Bailey Gaither
WR - (at DET)
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898.
DeAndre Thompkins
WR - (at DET)
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899.
Chris Blair
WR - (at DET)
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900.
Kabion Ento
CB - (at DET)
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