Fantasy Football Player Notes

Texas running back Bijan Robinson was the consensus No. 1 RB across all pre-draft publications and was selected 8th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons.
Robinson finished the 2022 college football season as PFF's second highest-graded rusher in the FBS, tallying 18 rushing TDs and 1,575 rushing yards en route to a 37% dominator rating in his final year as a Texas Longhorn. He forced 104 missed tackles (40% broken tackle rate) which has shown to be super predictive of success rushing at the NFL level. Compared to last year's running back class, only Breece Hall posted a higher dominator rating (40%). Factor in that Robinson also finished third among RBs in yards per catch (16.5) with zero drops and there's no question as to why he's the locked-in 1.01 for rookie drafts and top-3-ranked running back in season-long formats. At 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds, Robinson has the requisite size and all the tools to be a successful three-down running back in Arthur Smith's offense. Last season in Atlanta's offense, Tyler Allgeier finished as PFF's highest-graded rookie running back and 6th in rushing EPA as a former 5th-round pick. Allgeier also averaged nearly 18 carries and 96 rushing yards per game from Week 13 onward. If Robinson inherits that workload, he is easily projecting 300-plus carries and 1,500 rushing yards in an offense that ranked first in early down run rate and +13% in run rate above expectation.

Tyler Allgeier enjoyed an extremely successful rookie season, finishing the year as PFF's No.1-graded rookie running back (86.7) ahead of stars like Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall. That accomplishment puts Allgeier into an elite company with RBs such as Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara and Rhamondre Stevenson - all who were top-8 fantasy RBs in their second seasons after taking home the crown as PFF's highest-graded rookie RB in their first years. Allgeier's strong finish was the driving force behind his final standing - 6th among all RBs in rushing EPA - as the team unleashed him from Week 13 onward. He was the RB11 in half-point scoring points per game averaging 17.8 carries and 96 rushing yards per game. Alas, Allgeier's accomplishments were all for naught as his fantasy value was immediately vaporized after the team decided to draft Bijan Robinson 8th overall. It puts Allgeier into straight backup duties, where he likely will have no fantasy value without a Robinson injury. At least fantasy managers and zero-RB zealots can be assured that Allgeier will produce if/when called upon based on his rookie-year accolades.