Fantasy Football Player Notes

Last year, Javonte Williams was a massive surprise in fantasy, to everyone, including me. I was very bullish about his 2025 outlook, but I was hoping at best for a volume-driven RB2 residing in an explosive offense. Well, Williams crushed even my expectations as the RB11 in fantasy points per game, finishing with a career high 1,201 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 16th in explosive run rate and third in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). His season was also a tale of two halves as he faded some down the back half of the year. In Weeks 1-8, he averaged 18.5 touches, 90.7 total yards, and scored nine total touchdowns as the RB8 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 9-17, he averaged 17.4 touches, 76.5 total yards, and scored only four total touchdowns as the RB25 in fantasy points per game. Much of his fantasy stock drop was related to the fall in touchdown production, which can be simple variance. His deeper analytics back up that his play didn't fall off on a per-touch efficency standpoint. In Weeks 1-8, he had a 4.8% explosive run rate with an 11% missed tackle rate and 3.52 yards after contact per attempt. That yards after contact per attempt mark is otherworldly. In Weeks 8-17, he posted a 5.5% explosive run rate with a 13% missed tackle rate and 2.33 yards after contact per attempt. He improved his marks down the stretch in two of those three categories. If Williams can post production as he did over the first half of the 2025 season for an entire year, he is a locked-in top ten back with top-five upside. At his floor, he looks like a low-end RB1 or top 15 fantasy back.

Jaydon Blue was the preseason/training camp hype darling last season. That amounted to only five games of NFL action for him in 2025 and only a throwaway game in Week 18, where he saw more than 15 snaps. Blue could be the RB2 on the Dallas depth chart this season behind Javonte Williams, but I don't see him as a threat to Williams' workload. Last year, Blue only generated a 2.6% explosive run rate, an 11% missed tackle rate, and 1.58 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). None of those numbers are impressive, but if we want to take the glass half-full approach, it was from a 38-carry sample. Blue is on the low-end of the handcuff tier with plenty of options standing out above him in the later rounds.