Fantasy Football Player Notes

Khalil Herbert was better than David Montgomery in nearly every single rushing metric in 2022. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry to Montgomery's flat 4.0 yards per carry average. Herbert rushed for just 70 fewer yards on 72 fewer carries. Monty's rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd while Herbert's 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th. Had Herbert not gotten hurt in Week 10 versus the Detroit Lions, there was a non-zero chance he would have completely usurped Montgomery as the team's lead back.

In the two games that Herbert led the backfield due to a Montgomery injury, the Bears second-year rusher averaged 117 rushing yards and 19.5 carries. Herbert also has just had as many career games (4) as Montgomery with at least 90 rushing yards.

With Monty leaving in free agency, the rebuilding Bears let him walk and added D'Onta Foreman to join the backfield. Foreman's flashes of high-end early-down starting potential for two straight seasons are going to earn him opportunities in Chicago. Even though Herbert has shown out on limited opportunities, it's hard to envision anything but another usage split between Herbert and Foreman similar to the split between Herbert and Montgomery last season.

Foreman and Herbert earned nearly identical rushing EPA per attempt last year (inside the top 15). Fantasy managers might be best off taking the cheaper of the two in drafts because there may not be a true No. 1 rusher in the Windy City unless there's an injury. If the Bears are as run-heavy as they were last season, there's a chance that both can return value, but keep in mind that Justin Fields' own rushing will take away volume chances from both backs.

Fantasy managers also have to consider 4th-round rookie draft selection, Roschon Johnson. Johnson's efficient rushing style, bell-cow size and pass-protection props figure to complicate the Bears backfield into a potential three-headed monster.

Rookie running back Roschon Johnson posted an absurd 49% missed tackle rate in 2022, while also finishing fourth in yards after contact per attempt among the 2023 draft class. Simply put, he would be talked about much more had he not been seated on the depth chart behind college football's best running back: Bijan Robinson.

He only started five games in 47 total games played at Texas.

But Johnson possesses bell-cow size at 6 feet and 219 pounds with tenacity to boot. He jumped 122 inches in the broad jump (78th percentile) at the NFL Scouting Combine

Johnson was selected by the Chicago Bears in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft and will compete with veterans D'Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert for snaps. Johnson will find earning playing time will be much easier to do competing with the likes of non-Bijan Robinson running backs.

Don't be surprised if RJ beats out Foreman by the time training camp concludes. His trusted work on special teams and pass protection should get him on the field sooner rather than later.

D'Onta Foreman inked a one-year deal worth $3 million with the Chicago Bears to replace David Montgomery in the Bears backfield alongside Khalil Herbert, Travis Homer and 2023 4th-round draft pick Roschon Johnson. Per Aaron Wilson, Foreman also had interest from the Bills, Panthers, and Giants but chose to go with the Bears.

The interest doesn't come as a surprise after Foreman's breakout play in 2022. From Week 7 on, Foreman was the RB21 in fantasy scoring and RB22 in fantasy points per game. He ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing yards (852) over that span. But his path to back-end RB2 status was not consistent whatsoever. Foreman rushed for more than 110 yards in half of his last 10 games while finishing with fewer than 40 rushing yards in four of the others. His weekly half-point PPR fantasy finishes over those last 10 games were RB13, RB5, RB42, RB9, RB48, RB27, RB27, RB70, RB3, and RB53. Foreman was also a zero in the passing game, with just five receptions as the team's starter.

Even so, Foreman's flashes of high-end early-down starting potential for two straight seasons are going to earn him opportunities in Chicago. Even though Khalil Herbert has shown out on limited opportunities, it's hard to envision anything but another RB usage split between a trio of capable RBs similar to the split between Herbert and Montgomery last season.