Fantasy Football Player Notes
2021 Draft Rankings
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1.
Christian McCaffrey
CAR (at TB)
There have been 109 running back performances that have netted 25-plus half-PPR points over the last two years. Despite missing essentially the whole 2020 season, McCaffrey has accounted for 9.2 percent of them. He's somehow managed to score 25-plus points in 10 of his last 19 games, and has scored fewer than 19 fantasy points in just two of them. He's basically posting quarterback numbers as a running back. He should be the No. 1 pick in 2021 drafts.
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2.
Dalvin Cook
MIN (vs . CHI)
Despite missing four games over the last two years, Cook has still managed to rack up 3,572 total yards and 30 touchdowns. He's still yet to play 16 games in his four-year career, but when he's on the field, he's a surefire RB1. In each of the final 12 games he played in 2020, he touched the ball a minimum of 17 times, including 24-plus touches in nine of them. The craziest part about his numbers, though, is the fact that he has 97 receptions for 880 yards over the last two years, but just one receiving touchdown, so there's room for even more of a ceiling.
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3.
Derrick Henry
TEN (at HOU)
The man just keeps getting better... Every year he's been in the league, we've watched his rushing yardage go up by at least 250 yards. I'm sure he peaked last year with 2,027 yards on the ground, but now going to a 17-game season, maybe I'm wrong. Henry should be in scoring position quite a bit this year knowing the Titans went out and acquired Julio Jones this offseason. There's no scenario where your offense gets worse in that equation. However, we don't know how the offense is going to look in 2021, as Arthur Smith (offensive coordinator the last two years) is gone. Still, with Jones and A.J. Brown on the perimeter, it's going to be tough for opponents to stack the box the way they have against Henry the last few years, so his efficiency may actually go up. There are certainly some variables to his projections, but Henry has proven that despite his lack of usage in the passing game, he's going to make up for it on the ground.
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4.
Alvin Kamara
NO (at ATL)
You won't find a bigger Kamara fan than me, and that's going back to his college days. However, with the way Sean Payton rotates his running backs, it's going to be mighty hard for Kamara to live up to his draft cost now that Drew Brees is gone. Brees targeted his running backs at least 28 percent of the time in each of the last four years. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston hasn't targeted running backs more than 18 percent of the time in each of his last four seasons as a starter. The offense is also not nearly as likely to be scoring as many points without Brees. Upon finding out that Michael Thomas will miss time to start the season, it only makes Kamara more valuable, as he could be in line for eight-plus targets per game during that time.
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5.
Ezekiel Elliott
DAL (at PHI)
Follow the production in the first round. There's just one player who's finished as a top-12 running back five times since 2015. That player is Elliott, and as crazy as it sounds, he wasn't even in the league in 2015. "But Mike, Elliott tanked last year to RB11." The entire team sank without Dak Prescott, but in the five games with him, Elliott was the No. 3 running back in fantasy. If he keeps falling until the end of the first round, there will be a lot of championship rosters from that area of drafts.
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6.
Nick Chubb
CLE (vs . CIN)
Based on the actual opportunity Chubb got in 2020, he should've finished as the RB24 in half PPR formats. Instead, Chubb scored 54.5 more fantasy points than the average running back would've and finished as the RB9 despite playing in just 12 games. The new offense proved to be very beneficial to the run game, though Kareem Hunt's presence does limit Chubb's true ceiling, which should be top-five, but unless he starts to get more targets, he'll remain in the mid-to-low-end RB1 range.
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7.
Aaron Jones
GB (at DET)
I do an article every year highlighting which players performed better than expected based on where their touches took place, as well as how many carries/targets they receive. Aaron Jones has finished No. 7, No. 4, No. 4, and No. 16 over the last four years on that list, which highlights just how good he is. During that time, he's scored 143.4 more fantasy points than the average running back would've. Him and Alvin Kamara are much more similar than most realize. You take proven production at the top of drafts, and Jones has proven it time-and-time again. If Aaron Rodgers doesn't ever show up to the Packers, he does lose a bit of his touchdown upside, though.
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8.
Jonathan Taylor
IND (at JAC)
This time last year, I was much higher on Taylor than the consensus. I like Taylor, but did everyone forget about what happened the first 10 weeks of the season? Taylor was the RB19 and David Montgomery was the RB20. Taylor finished the year as the RB6 while Montgomery was the RB4. Many will talk about Montgomery's schedule as the reason for his production, hence why he's ranked at RB20 in ECR right now, but are they ignoring Taylor's schedule? He played against the Texans TWICE, Packers, Raiders, Jaguars, and the Steelers (who were decimated by injuries in that game). That's a large reason for his jump in production. I still like Taylor, just not nearly as much as the consensus.
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9.
Saquon Barkley
NYG (vs . WAS)
After setting the fantasy world on fire his rookie season with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns, Barkley hasn't exactly lived up to expectations producing 1,535 total yards and eight touchdowns over 15 games the last two seasons. He tore his ACL early in the season, which should give him plenty of time to bounce back, though his violent running style could take a bit longer in recovery, and he only returned to practice in late-August. The Giants suddenly have more weapons than ever in the passing game, so Barkley is unlikely to come close to the 121 targets he saw in 2018, though he should have more scoring opportunities. There is some risk with Barkley at the top of drafts due to his knee, but when on the field, we know he'll produce.
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10.
Antonio Gibson
WAS (at NYG)
I like Gibson, it's not that I don't. The issue is that he's not heavily involved in the passing game, and he topped 94 yards on the ground just twice all of last season, with both of those games coming against the Cowboys. In fact, 28.7 percent of his fantasy points in 2020 were against the Cowboys. I can certainly see Gibson finishing higher than my ranking, but those above him have either (a) a more consistent track record, or (b) less question marks. He scored a touchdown once every 15.5 carries last year, a number that's surely to go up.
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11.
Najee Harris
PIT (at BAL)
Running backs are at their prime when they enter the NFL, which makes them the most valuable their rookie season, unlike quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends. Because of that, Harris, who takes over as the Steelers' lead back, is someone you want to have on your roster. The Steelers are a team that hasn't been shy about giving running backs 18-plus touches per game with Mike Tomlin at the helm. You don't draft a three-down back like Harris in the first round and put him in some timeshare. I wouldn't be surprised to see him average 20-plus touches per game, which puts him smack dab in the middle of the RB1 conversation.
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12.
Joe Mixon
CIN (at CLE)
Over the final nine games of 2019, Zac Taylor gave Mixon 214 touches (23.8 per game), which made us believe they'd finally realized he should be used in a workhorse fashion. The start of 2020 wasn't as generous, but he did average 19.7 touches per game over the first three weeks. Then we saw Giovani Bernard get knocked out of the lineup for a few weeks, and it led to Mixon totaling 27.0 touches per game over the next three weeks before getting hurt. Now that Bernard is gone, are we finally going to get a full season's worth of 20-plus touch games for Mixon? If so, top-five is in the realm of possibilities, especially knowing he'll be more involved in the passing game. Don't sleep on Mixon; he's still a top-10 running back talent-wise.
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13.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
KC (at DEN)
Not many realize that Edwards-Helaire was the No. 11 running back through six weeks without Le'Veon Bell on the roster. Even better, he was the No. 11 running back while scoring just once during that time. In fact, had he scored one more touchdown, he would've been the No. 6 running back through six weeks. Once they traded for Bell, though, it ruined the stable touches he was getting. With Bell gone and no one significant brought in this offseason, Edwards-Helaire should return to his 18-plus touch role in the offense. The Chiefs have rebuilt their offensive line this year, which should help make life easier on Edwards-Helaire, who did average a solid 4.44 yards per carry his rookie season. Touchdowns are what were lacking, but don't bet on that again in what's likely to be the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL.
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14.
Austin Ekeler
LAC (at LV)
In eight full games with Justin Herbert under center last year, Ekeler saw 63 targets. Over a full 16-game season, that amounts to 126 targets. While I don't expect him to get there, he's one of just two running backs (Christian McCaffrey is the other) who I'm projecting for 100-plus targets in 2021. Targets are worth twice as much as carries, so even if Ekeler winds up getting just 12 carries per game, it's not the end of the world. In fact, he can still finish as a borderline RB1 if he were to hit just 200 carries on the season. The new coaching staff obviously brings on some potential volatility, but there's not much other talent on the roster at running back, so his role should be very safe.
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15.
Chris Carson
SEA (at ARI)
Throughout Carson's career, he's produced RB2 or better numbers in 60 percent of his games. That's just a smidge behind Marshawn Lynch's number of 61.7 percent, which goes to show just how undervalued Carson has been to this point. Injuries have been a question, which should lower his ADP a bit, but when on the field, Carson is a borderline RB1 who the Seahawks signed to a fresh new deal this offseason.
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16.
David Montgomery
CHI (at MIN)
Sure, Montgomery finished as the RB4 last year. There were many factors that led to that, particularly the injury to Tarik Cohen, freeing up tons of targets in the passing game. Over the course of Montgomery's short career, he's played 19 games with Cohen and 12 games without him. In the games with Cohen, he averaged 2.32 targets per game. In the 12 games without him, that number rose to 4.92 targets per game. Well, Cohen is back, and the team signed Damien Williams, who's a better receiving back than Montgomery. On top of Cohen missing, the Bears had a ridiculously easy schedule down the stretch, playing against the Packers twice, Lions, Texans, Vikings, and Jaguars to close out the season. Did you know that Montgomery was the RB20 after 10 weeks (prior to starting that schedule)? He's a fine low-end RB2, but don't go about your day thinking you're getting a steal in the fourth round or anything.
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17.
James Robinson
JAC (vs . IND)
When Travie Etienne was healthy, Robinson's value had a hard cap on it, especially under the new regime in Jacksonville. But with Etienne now lost for the season, Robinson's value shoots up into solid RB2 range. While Robinson was on the field last year, the Jaguars running backs combined for 332 touches. Robinson accounted for 289 of them, or 87.0 percent, a number that doesn't really exist in today's NFL. He averaged 4.46 yards per carry, 5.73 yards per target, and scored 10 total touchdowns, which is solid, though nothing special. Enter Urban Meyer, who said they wanted to add depth/competition at the running back position, which they did with Etienne and Carlos Hyde. But with only Hyde left to siphon off touches, expect a big workload for Robinson again, enough to make him a solid starter.
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18.
D'Andre Swift
DET (vs . GB)
There were certainly flashes of what could be a great three-down back with Swift last year, but the Lions seem to have alternate plans. They snagged Jamaal Williams in free agency and signed him to a two-year deal. Then, they drafted Jermar Jefferson. Then, they brought in Todd Gurley on a free agent visit. While they didn't sign him, it's not promising for Swift's outlook, as they clearly want this to be somewhat of a timeshare. It's not to say timeshare backs can't get into the top-12 conversation - they can, but it requires a lot of scoring opportunities, something we're not expecting from the Lions offense. Swift is an extremely talented football player, but situation and opportunity knock him into clear-cut RB2 territory. That's especially true with him being "iffy" for Week 1 because he was so delayed in getting his conditioning up to speed due to his groin injury.
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19.
Miles Sanders
PHI (vs . DAL)
The start to Sanders' career hasnt been what we'd hoped for, delivering RB2 or better numbers in just 14-of-28 of games (50 percent). To be fair, he hasn't been used in a workhorse role, totaling more than 15 touches just 11 times over that span. Will the departure of Doug Pederson allow him to shine, or will Nick Sirianni implement a timeshare as well? The depth chart now consists of Sanders, Kerryon Johnson, and Kenneth Gainwell, so this could very well be a Colts-like backfield, which would make sense given that's where Sirianni comes from. Sanders should be treated as a timeshare RB2 who's more talented than most in that conversation.
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20.
Josh Jacobs
LV (vs . LAC)
I remember last year when Jacobs was going as a late first-round pick, though I wanted nothing to do with him at that price due to his lack of involvement in the passing game the previous season. Nothing changed except they added more pass catchers. He did get a slight bump in targets (45), though nothing you could rely upon every week. What's changed this offseason? The Raiders decided to pay Kenyan Drake a good chunk of money to come in and share the workload with Jacobs, forcing his fantasy stock to plummet. Drake was essentially the same running back as Jacobs last year, though we've seen him produce in the passing game before. Did the addition of Drake drop Jacobs' price too far, or is this a backfield to simply avoid if possible? I believe he's fallen enough to consider a value as a low-end RB2 who should see be in line for 250-plus touches. The expectations were out of control last year, but if you can get him in the fifth round this year, I'm buying.
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21.
Damien Harris
NE (at MIA)
What's the best-case scenario for Harris? Didn't we see it last year when Sony Michel went down with an injury? The Patriots may have traded Michel, but they drafted Rhamondre Stevenson in the fourth round of this year's draft. I like Harris as a player, but as someone who topped 16 touches just twice last year with little competition and no role in the passing game, you should aim higher for your RB2/3 option.
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22.
Darrell Henderson Jr.
LAR (vs . SF)
The year-ending injury to Cam Akers opens a door of opportunity for Henderson, who, just like Akers, was a Day 2 draft pick by this regime. In fact, Henderson was more efficient than Akers in nearly every category last year, though Akers had the momentum at the end of the season. The Rams traded for Sony Michel, but that seems like much more of a depth move than anything else, and Henderson is a rock-solid RB2 with top-10 upside. Monitor his recent thumb injury, but for now, it looks like he will be ready for Week 1.
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23.
Mike Davis
ATL (vs . NO)
My guess is that analysts are worried about the Falcons adding a free agent running back because even my RB24 ranking feels a bit low for a back who should have no issue getting 15-plus touches per game. That would amount to 240-plus touches on the season. There have been 144 running backs who've hit that mark over the last 10 years and none have finished worse than RB28 (his current ECR). In fact, just 10 of those running backs (6.9 percent) have finished worse than RB20. If the Falcons don't add anyone of significance, I'll be moving him up even more.
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24.
Myles Gaskin
MIA (vs . NE)
It was shocking to see the Dolphins pass on running back after running back, especially considering all the picks they had in this year's draft. This is great news for Gaskin, who racked up 183 touches in just 10 games last year. Crazy, right? His 18.3 touches per game ranked ninth among running backs. Opportunity is everything, and if he gets that type of opportunity again in 2021 while playing in all the games, he's going to finish as a top-15 running back. The only difference is that the Dolphins added Malcolm Brown in free agency, which could lead to him siphoning some targets away from Gaskin, which would be less than ideal. As of now, Gaskin should probably be considered a solid RB2, though landing him as your RB3/flex would be even better based on the small sample size we have from him in a big role.
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25.
Kareem Hunt
CLE (vs . CIN)
Despite Nick Chubb getting hurt and missing 4.5 games, Hunt failed to meet expectations in 2020. Sure, he finished as a top-10 running back at season's end, but if you were to ask his managers, they'd tell you he was a flex-type option. He finished as an RB2 or better in just 56.3 percent of games in PPR formats, which was slightly behind Miles Sanders and slightly ahead of Ronald Jones. His value was arguably better with Chubb on the field last year, so maybe it's a matter of keeping him fresh? Whatever the case, Hunt should be a strong RB3/flex option who has 20-touch upside should Chubb miss time.
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26.
Javonte Williams
DEN (vs . KC)
There are many trying to appoint Williams as the top back in the Broncos offense, but don't go there just yet. Melvin Gordon has one year left on his deal, and it's the same coaching staff that brought him in on a two-year deal worth $16 million. It's likely they continue using Gordon in a timeshare with Williams in the Phillip Lindsay role, which netted 8-16 touches when Gordon was in the lineup. That does give him flex appeal, and if anything were to happen to Gordon, Williams could be a league winner. Treat him as a high-end handcuff, and anything else he gives you is a bonus.
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27.
Raheem Mostert
SF (at LAR)
There's no denying it... when Mostert is healthy and on the field, he's a beast. He's turned 282 career carries into 1,590 yards and 11 touchdowns. But that's the issue, he's never healthy. There's a reason he's 29 years old and has just 282 carries on his frame. Have the 49ers lost patience? They traded up to draft Trey Sermon in the third round, which could indicate they're ready to move on from Mostert, or it could be them ensuring they have a high-quality backup for if/when he gets injured. Mostert tallied at least 14 carries in 5-of-8 starts last year, which is more than enough to get into RB2 territory with his efficiency, but you can't draft him as such when injuries/Sermon are factored in. He's not someone you can confidently draft as a starter for your fantasy team because there's so much unknown. However, if he gets the job back, this is a pick that can make a difference in fantasy leagues. The 49ers have one of the easiest schedules in the league, so if they let Mostert get rolling, he's unlikely to slow down.
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28.
Chase Edmonds
ARI (vs . SEA)
Have we seen Edmonds carry the workload for the Cardinals before? Well, kind of. Despite Kenyan Drake struggling through much of 2020, there were just two games where Edmonds finished with more than eight carries, which is certainly a concern. The Cardinals went out and signed James Conner in free agency, but he's proven to be incapable of staying healthy with a full workload, and it wasn't a pricey contract, so maybe we see Edmonds in a bigger role. Whatever the case, we know he has the pass-catching role locked down, which has value in itself, as he was a flex-type option most weeks (he was an RB3 or better 62.5 percent of the time). This offense is going to score points, so if Edmonds were to get a slight bump in carries, he could make his way into the RB2 conversation. Draft him as an RB3/flex and hope that's the case. Just know that he's still yet to crack 100 carries in a season.
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29.
Ronald Jones II
TB (vs . CAR)
I know Leonard Fournette had a strong finish to the season while Jones was hurt, but we mustn't forget that Jones averaged 5.14 yards per carry and nearly hit 1,000 rushing yards despite finishing with just 192 carries. There are just eight running backs in the post-merger era who've finished with as many yards as Jones did with 192 or less carries. He's not going to be heavily utilized in the passing game, which severely caps his upside, but Jones is the Bucs best ball carrier.
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30.
Trey Sermon
SF (at LAR)
As of now, we have to assume it's Raheem Mostert as the starting running back, though Kyle Shanahan did trade up into the third round to get Sermon. This should tell you that Mostert is on a short leash, and to be fair, he hasn't been able to hold up to a workhorse workload. The 49ers have one of the softest schedules in the league among running backs, so if we start hearing whispers that Sermon will start right out of the gate, he should shoot up draft boards. For now, he should be viewed as one of the best bench stashes in fantasy football.
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31.
Melvin Gordon III
DEN (vs . KC)
When the Broncos signed Gordon to a two-year, $16 million contract, you had to assume they were going to use him in a big role. That's not quite what happened, as they continually wanted to involve Phillip Lindsay. After letting him walk in free agency, they snagged Mike Boone, which was a downgrade from Lindsay. Okay... but that wasn't it. They drafted Javonte Williams at the top of the second round, a running back who'll certainly compete for touches immediately. Gordon isn't going to simply go away making the money he is, but he's also not likely going to get the 16.5 touches per game he was in 2020. There's also a possible suspension coming Gordon's way for a DUI incident last year, which needs to be factored into his fantasy stock. He's not someone you should be relying on for anything more than RB3/flex production.
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32.
James Conner
ARI (vs . SEA)
It's never a good thing for a running back to go from a workhorse role into a timeshare, but in Conner's case, it might be for the best. While operating as Le'Veon Bell's backup, Conner had pep in his step and performed like an RB1 when given the opportunity. But once he took over as the team's No. 1 running back, injuries continually piled up, letting his body know he wasn't capable of being that guy. Many are assuming that Chase Edmonds is the No. 1 running back in this offense, and while I believe that's the case, there's a non-zero percent chance that Conner takes over the Kenyan Drake role from last season that netted 239 carries and 31 targets. There's a reason the Cardinals signed him in free agency, so he will have a role, but the question is "how big?" He might be worth a late-round pick just in case he does get the Drake role (or even 80 percent of it).
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33.
AJ Dillon
GB (at DET)
We've watched Jamaal Williams get 226 carries and 80 targets in 28 games under Matt LaFleur, and he wasn't someone this regime drafted in the second round. That amounts to 10.9 touches per game, which is enough for most running backs to be considered a flex-type start. The issue with Dillon is that he's not likely going to be involved in the passing game, as Aaron Jones is a far superior receiver, and the Packers do throw quite a bit on the goal-line when Aaron Rodgers is under center. Dillon is essentially someone who's a touchdown-dependent flex option most weeks, but offers legitimate RB1 upside if Jones were to miss any time.
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34.
Zack Moss
BUF (vs . NYJ)
I really liked Moss coming out of college, but being injury prone was a label he needed to shake. Unfortunately, he suffered an injury early in the season and was never able to wrestle the starting gig away from Devin Singletary. He did finish with at least 12 carries in three of the last four games, which leaves room for hope, but he also saw just three targets in those four games combined, which makes him extremely touchdown-dependent. When Josh Allen is the primary goal-line back, that presents an issue. Without an injury to Singletary, it's tough to see Moss being anything more than a touchdown-dependent RB3/4 option.
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35.
Leonard Fournette
TB (vs . CAR)
It's easy to recall the good times Fournette had in the playoffs and use that as a reason to move him up draft boards, but don't let a couple games spoil what was a very mediocre season. He finished with more than 52 rushing yards just once all year, and that came in Week 2 against the Panthers. Fournette's primary source of fantasy points in 2020 was via the passing game, as he saw 47 targets in 13 games. Unfortunately, the Bucs added Gio Bernard, who's a much better receiver out of the backfield. Knowing that Bernard is the more reliable third-down option and that Ronald Jones is probably the better two-down option, that leaves Fournette in no man's land. He's not someone you're going to want to start every week.
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36.
Jamaal Williams
DET (vs . GB)
I'm not sure I'm seeing the allure that some do to Williams as a handcuff in Detroit. Williams isn't a bad running back by any means, but it's more about the offense and their want to use a timeshare at running back. It's the same reason D'Andre Swift is falling into middling RB2 range of drafts - it's not because of his talent. Even if Swift were to miss time, the Lions would likely bring in another running back to share the workload. They already brought Todd Gurley in for a visit, so they clearly haven't taken their minds off adding another running back. Not just that, but it's also likely to be a low-scoring offense, which just doesn't give you a lot of upside/potential.
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37.
Sony Michel
LAR (vs . SF)
Michel was actually having a surprisingly impressive camp with the Patriots, but before we could figure out exactly how he'd factor into the running back mix in New England, he was shipped off to the Rams. He'll almost certainly be just a veteran depth piece for Darrell Henderson, but he could make an impact if Henderson needs to miss time (and he is currently battling a thumb injury). Michel may have only had 79 carries last year, but he did average a massive 5.7 yards per carry on them. Michel remains only an insurance policy back for now, unless we find out that Henderson needs to miss significant time.
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38.
Michael Carter
NYJ (at BUF)
Don't sleep on Carter in redraft formats. The only player standing in his way of 15-plus touches is Tevin Coleman, who's played just 22-of-32 games the last two seasons. On top of that, he's never been efficient when asked to carry a heavy workload. Carter reminded me of Justin Forsett while scouting him. He does everything well, and though he's undersized, that shouldn't stop him from getting plenty of opportunity, especially in the passing game. The Jets are no longer an Adam Gase-led team. There's value to be had in this offense, and Carter is one of the best late-round values in fantasy football.
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39.
Kenyan Drake
LV (vs . LAC)
The marriage between the Raiders and Drake is an odd one, as Drake was somewhat of a Josh Jacobs doppleganger last year. They both finished between 3.9 and 4.0 yards per carry, both scored double-digit rushing touchdowns, and both were extremely limited in the passing game. The Raiders have continually given guys like DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, and Devontae Booker work alongside Jacobs over the last two years, so Drake is going to get mixed in quite heavily, and my guess would be that the passing game is where he gets most of it. You may not remember, but Drake was considered a solid third-down back early in his career with the Dolphins, and has two seasons with 50-plus catches on his NFL resume. It's tough to see him eating into Jacobs' carry totals a whole lot, especially after the way he looked with the Cardinals in 2020, but he should offer low-upside flex value due to his work in the passing game.
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40.
Devin Singletary
BUF (vs . NYJ)
To this point in his career, do you know who Singletary's fantasy comparison is? Duke Johnson. Yeah, we all know how that story ended. Singletary has produced RB2 or better numbers just 35.7 percent of the time, which is extremely poor for a running back who's averaged 14.2 opportunities per game. The Bills don't run the ball a whole lot, and it's extremeley likely that Zack Moss is the better early-down back who will get more goal-line carries. Singletary is a very low upside pick late in drafts who's best served as a bye week flex-type player.
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41.
Tony Pollard
DAL (at PHI)
The highly sought after handcuff flashed his potential in 2020, racking up 18 touches in Ezekiel Elliott's absence, finishing with 132 total yards and two touchdowns against a tough 49ers defense. Granted, the defense may not have given him the same respect they gave Elliott, but the offensive line was also not in great shape at that point, and Dak Prescott was not under center. If Elliott were to miss time, Pollard would be an insta-start RB1. Heck, he even flashed some flex viability last year when Elliott was on the field, which could help you get through bye weeks.
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42.
Phillip Lindsay
MIA (vs . NE)
It's a shame Lindsay went to a team that's in complete shambles at the moment because he's a fine running back. Most would be shocked to learn that since the start of the 2018 season, Lindsay ranks 10th in rushing yards among running backs. He's averaged 4.78 yards per carry during that time, so it wasn't just volume. Again, Houston is a mess right now, and have a backfield that consists of Lindsay, David Johnson, Mark Ingram, and Rex Burkhead. There are not going to be enough touches to warrant a draft pick on Lindsay.
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43.
Nyheim Hines
IND (at JAC)
He finished as the RB20 in half PPR formats last year. Crazy, right? While that's firm RB2 territory, he finished as an RB2 or better in just 43.8 percent of his games, tied with Chase Edmonds. He clearly has a role in this offense, though it's a bit reliant on gamescript, as Jonathan Taylor is the clear early-down back, while Hines is the preferred back in passing situations. If they give Taylor more work in the passing game this year, it's coming at the expense of Hines, and knowing Taylor's ADP, drafters expect that increase for Taylor. Even going back to 2019, Hines was an RB3 or better just 43.8 percent of the time, which is more in line for how you should feel about him in 2021. He's just an emergency flex option.
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44.
David Johnson
HOU (vs . TEN)
I think most people would admit that Johnson looked much better than expected in 2020, totaling over 1,000 total yards and eight touchdowns in just 12 games. That's the good news. The bad news is that the Texans are a team that legitimately might lose every game in 2021, as they've been stripped down and look like a roster of replacements. They've also added Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead to the backfield, which presents all sorts of issues. If Deshaun Watson were going to play, we'd dig into this backfield a little deeper, but with Watson out of the picture for the foreseeable future, this is not a backfield you want to be associated with. That's especially true with Johnson, as all indications are he's going to be just a third-down back.
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45.
Alexander Mattison
MIN (vs . CHI)
When drafting a player like Mattison, it's not going to make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside. He's a handcuff, plain and simple. As long as Dalvin Cook is on the field, Mattison isn't going to get more than 10 touches in a game. However, if Cook were to miss time, Mattison is a potential league winner. If you have the space on your bench for someone like Mattison, he's much better than a bye-week-filler-type player.
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46.
James White
NE (at MIA)
Despite seeing a solid 14.2 percent target share last year, White was a non-factor in fantasy. Cam Newton wasn't throwing touchdowns, and he was stealing all the touchdowns near the goal line. Not that White gets many opportunities around the goal line, as he only totaled 35 carries last year, but the lack of touchdowns destroyed his usability. If Newton is still under center in 2021, White's going to have similar problems. If Mac Jones were to take over as the starter, it might inject some life back into White, as the offense would certainly be passing the ball more.
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47.
Tevin Coleman
NYJ (at BUF)
Let's just call it as it is: Coleman is essentially undrafted at this point in the offseason. He's not great, but he's going to be the starting running back for the Jets when the season begins. As time goes on, I fully expect Michael Carter to push him for that job (he's better than Coleman), but Coleman was brought to New York because he knows the offense. But still, a starting running back should be taken as a top-50 option.
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48.
J.D. McKissic
WAS (at NYG)
It seems that Washington is going to utilize Antonio Gibson in the passing game much more often in 2021, which will come at the expense of McKissic. It's not just Gibson, either. The Football Team also signed Curtis Samuel in free agency, a player that's used in a hybrid role who gets plenty of intermittent targets, as well as a handful of carries per game. While McKissic was a hidden gem in PPR formats last year, it appears his role is shrinking in this offense. As someone who relies on volume to produce, McKissic is more of a passing-down handcuff to Gibson.
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49.
Ty'Son Williams
BAL (vs . PIT)
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50.
Rashaad Penny
SEA (at ARI)
It's not the start to his career that he hoped for, as Penny has totaled just 161 carries over his first three seasons in the league. While on the field, he was productive with his touches, but he failed to bounce back from his ACL injury in 2020, an injury that not many have had problems coming back from. It seemed he may finally get his opportunity to claim this backfield in 2021, but the Seahawks decided to re-sign Chris Carson to a pricey contract, locking Penny into the backup role. He's a solid handcuff, but one who hasn't been able to stay healthy himself.
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|
51.
Giovani Bernard
TB (vs . CAR)
Some are expecting Bernard to come in and play a big role on passing downs for the Bucs, though it's tough to see where that's coming from after the team re-signed Leonard Fournette. While Ronald Jones was the best early-down back for that team last year, Fournette was the primary passing-down back. Sure, Bernard is better in that role, but then why re-sign Fournette? Whatever the case, Bernard is going to be nothing more than a third-down back who might help during bye weeks in PPR formats.
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52.
Rhamondre Stevenson
NE (at MIA)
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53.
Carlos Hyde
JAC (vs . IND)
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54.
Darrel Williams
KC (at DEN)
It's kind of crazy how fall Williams falls in drafts considering the offense he plays in. Should anything happen to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Williams would step into a 15-touch role and be an every-week starter. He has very little until that happens, but that can be said about many handcuffs available. If you play in a league that has eight bench spots, Williams should have a spot at the end of it.
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55.
Damien Williams
CHI (at MIN)
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56.
Salvon Ahmed
MIA (vs . NE)
He's kind of gone under the radar this offseason, though it's odd because of how well he played when given the opportunity last year as Myles Gaskin's primary backup. He tallied 63 total touches, 291 total yards, and two touchdowns in the three games he played a big role, which is certainly enough to be started in fantasy. Worst case scenario is that he's a handcuff to Gaskin, who hasn't proven the ability to remain healthy in a workhorse role.
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57.
Malcolm Brown
MIA (vs . NE)
Brown's a role player, plain and simple. The Dolphins are going to give him touches; you don't sign a player for nearly $2 million to have him fourth on the running back depth chart. With that being said, he's not a sleeper candidate or anything, but rather someone who takes away some of the upside of players like Myles Gaskin.
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58.
Kenneth Gainwell
PHI (vs . DAL)
Gainwell has plenty of talent, particularly in the passing game where he's an outstanding route-runner. The problem is that with his landing spot, there's very little to be excited about. Philadelphia not only has a locked in starting running back in Miles Sanders, but the team has plenty of depth with Jordan Howard and Boston Scott. And it's not exactly like the Eagles targeted Gainwell - he was a fifth-round pick in the draft - so they aren't going to go out of their way to build a role for him in his rookie year. The path to Gainwell being fantasy-relevant in 2021 is a tortured one that requires multiple injuries ahead of him, so he's best drafted only as a depth piece late in extremely deep leagues.
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59.
Mark Ingram II
NO (at ATL)
Would Ingram have signed with the Texans had he known all the moves that have taken place? I'm guessing not. He's now stuck on a depth chart that has David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead on it, while Tyrod Taylor is under center on what's expected to be a low-scoring Texans offense. You should avoid the Texans if you can help it, especially Ingram.
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|
60.
Justin Jackson
LAC (at LV)
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|
61.
Ty Johnson
NYJ (at BUF)
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|
62.
Chuba Hubbard
CAR (at TB)
Had Hubbard entered the NFL Draft a year earlier, he may have gone in the second round. But that's not what happened. He returned to school and had a weak 2020 season, leading him to fall to the end of the fourth round. He's certainly not getting much playing time with Christian McCaffrey healthy, but he should be the clear-cut handcuff, which had plenty of value last year in this offense (Mike Davis). Unfortunately, the Panthers offensive line continues to get worse, and it's tough to say Sam Darnold is an upgrade at quarterback, making Hubbard a mediocre handcuff in fantasy.
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63.
Marlon Mack
IND (at JAC)
Mack is going to be a tough one to project in 2021, as he's returning from an Achilles injury, which used to be a career killer. It still might be, and it's not like Mack was lighting the world on fire before he suffered that injury. Jonathan Taylor is the lead back and Nyheim Hines will cap upside as the receiving back, so Mack is arguably just a second-tier handcuff who also has question marks about his health.
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64.
Boston Scott
PHI (vs . DAL)
He went from a player who had the passing-down back role locked down at the start of the offseason, but we've watched that fade as we move throughout the offseason. The addition of Kenneth Gainwell in the draft was always going to be a problem, as Gainwell was arguably the best pass-catching back in the draft class. Not just Gainwell, though, as the team also signed Kerryon Johnson once the Lions released him. Opportunity is fading for Scott, who's nowhere near the redraft radar at this point.
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65.
Wayne Gallman Jr.
ATL (vs . NO)
I was really hoping Gallman would get an opportunity somewhere after flashing his ability in 2020 where he talled double-digit PPR points in seven straight games after taking over for Saquon Barkley and Devonta Freeman. Unfortunately, he landed on a depth chart that's now crowded with Raheem Mostert, Trey Sermon, Jeff Wilson, and Elijah Mitchell. The injury to Wilson that'll keep him out at the start of the season likely holds a roster spot for Gallman, but he still likely needs another injury to be relevant.
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|
66.
Latavius Murray
BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
67.
Jerick McKinnon
KC (at DEN)
|
|
68.
Devontae Booker
NYG (vs . WAS)
After exiting Denver's mess to join Las Vegas, most assumed Booker's career was nearing an end, but he was solid with them, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and eating into Josh Jacobs' workload a bit. While I don't expect the same thing to happen with the Giants, he's the clear No. 2 on their depth chart behind Saquon Barkley, who's had plenty of health concerns in his short career.
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69.
Darrynton Evans
TEN (at HOU)
I think most people were shocked when the Titans selected Evans in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft, though I figured it meant they were going to start to lighten the burden on Derrick Henry, as Evans profiled as a timeshare back. Instead, it was all Henry, all the time. Will that change with Arthur Smith out of town? It's possible. I'm expecting a bigger role on obvious passing downs, while carrying some solid handcuff value in a high-scoring offense.
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70.
Joshua Kelley
LAC (at LV)
He had his chance and likely blew it. Kelley acted as the early-down back for the Chargers last year, but wound up averaging more than 4.0 yards per carry just four times all season, including seven games averaging 3.1 or less yards per carry. Neither Justin Jackson nor Austin Ekeler had issues running behind the line, as both of them tallied 4.6 yards per carry. The Chargers also have a new coaching staff and drafted Larry Rountree in the 2021 draft, which could make Kelley expendable, or pushed down the depth chart.
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71.
Tony Jones Jr.
NO (at ATL)
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72.
Tarik Cohen
CHI (at MIN)
Is it possible that Cohen is this generation's Darren Sproles? Looking at their Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between numbers, they're nearly identical, as both posted RB2 or better numbers 39 percent of the time, though Cohen has delivered RB3 or better numbers 61 percent of the time to Sproles' 56 percent. Cohen is still in the same offense that gave him those numbers and with what should be a much better quarterback (regardless of Dalton or Fields) under center, leading a higher scoring offense. The issue, for now, is health, and Cohen seems unlikely to be ready for the beginning of the season. He's not a bad stash candidate in deeper formats, however, as he can make an impact later in the season.
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73.
Benny Snell Jr.
PIT (at BAL)
|
|
74.
Samaje Perine
CIN (at CLE)
|
|
75.
Le'Veon Bell
FA (BYE)
|
|
76.
Matt Breida
BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
77.
Anthony McFarland Jr.
PIT (at BAL)
|
|
78.
La'Mical Perine
NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
79.
Jeff Wilson Jr.
SF (at LAR)
So much for a potential breakout season for Wilson. He tore his meniscus while weightlifting in May, which required surgery that'll keep him on the shelf for 4-6 months, meaning he'll miss the start of the season (and maybe the whole thing). The 49ers drafted Trey Sermon in the third round, still have Raheem Mostert, and added Wayne Gallman in free agency, so they're not hurting at running back with Wilson out. He's undraftable.
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80.
DeeJay Dallas
SEA (at ARI)
Once Chris Carson re-signed with the Seahawks, almost all hope for Dallas went out the window. Carson is clearly the lead back, while Rashaad Penny is fully rehabbed from his ACL injury, making Dallas the No. 3 option at best, and he'd still likely have to fight with Alex Collins and/or Travis Homer for that job.
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81.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
82.
Larry Rountree III
LAC (at LV)
|
|
83.
Kalen Ballage
PIT (at BAL)
|
|
84.
Rex Burkhead
HOU (vs . TEN)
Burkhead is a talented player, particularly in the receiving game, but he's struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. He now finds himself in about as bad a situation as he could, playing for a poor Texans team with a crowded running back room, which includes David Johnson, Mark Ingram, and Phillip Lindsay. If one or more of those backs get cut, then Burkhead could have some value by default, but until or unless that happens, he can be ignored in fantasy circles.
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|
85.
Gus Edwards
BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
86.
Eno Benjamin
ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
87.
Jalen Richard
LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
88.
Jermar Jefferson
DET (vs . GB)
|
|
89.
Jaret Patterson
WAS (at NYG)
|
|
90.
Jordan Wilkins
JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
91.
Chris Evans
CIN (at CLE)
|
|
92.
Royce Freeman
HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
93.
Kylin Hill
GB (at DET)
|
|
94.
Jake Funk
LAR (vs . SF)
|
|
95.
Elijah Mitchell
SF (at LAR)
|
|
96.
Javian Hawkins
TEN (at HOU)
|
|
97.
Jordan Howard
PHI (vs . DAL)
|
|
98.
Duke Johnson Jr.
MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
99.
Mike Boone
DEN (vs . KC)
|
|
100.
Kerryon Johnson
FA (BYE)
|
|
101.
Qadree Ollison
ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
102.
Devonta Freeman
BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
103.
Peyton Barber
LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
104.
Todd Gurley II
FA (BYE)
|
|
105.
Alex Collins
SEA (at ARI)
|
|
106.
Khalil Herbert
CHI (at MIN)
|
|
107.
J.J. Taylor
NE (at MIA)
|
|
108.
Ito Smith
FA (BYE)
|
|
109.
Adrian Peterson
SEA (at ARI)
|
|
110.
Dare Ogunbowale
JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
111.
JaMycal Hasty
SF (at LAR)
|
|
112.
Xavier Jones
FA (BYE)
With the Rams' trade for Sony Michel, Jones goes from potential solid handcuff value to likely irrelevant for fantasy purposes. There's no reason to consider him in redraft formats, despite Henderson's thumb injury causing some uncertainty in the Los Angeles backfield.
|
|
113.
Travis Homer
SEA (at ARI)
|
|
114.
Kene Nwangwu
MIN (vs . CHI)
|
|
115.
Kyle Juszczyk
SF (at LAR)
|
|
116.
Chris Thompson
FA (BYE)
|
|
117.
Gary Brightwell
NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
118.
Jeremy McNichols
TEN (at HOU)
|
|
119.
Ty Montgomery
NO (at ATL)
|
|
120.
Devine Ozigbo
NE (at MIA)
|
|
121.
D'Ernest Johnson
CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
122.
Mekhi Sargent
LAR (vs . SF)
|
|
123.
Darwin Thompson
TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
124.
Trayveon Williams
CIN (at CLE)
|
|
125.
Corey Clement
DAL (at PHI)
|
|
126.
Gerrid Doaks
MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
127.
Alec Ingold
LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
128.
C.J. Ham
MIN (vs . CHI)
|
|
129.
Bryce Love
FA (BYE)
|
|
130.
Trenton Cannon
SF (at LAR)
|
|
131.
Patrick Ricard
BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
132.
Dwayne Washington
NO (at ATL)
|
|
133.
Jonathan Ward
ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
134.
Keith Smith
ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
135.
Ameer Abdullah
CAR (at TB)
|
|
136.
Jaylen Samuels
HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
137.
Khari Blasingame
TEN (at HOU)
|
|
138.
Jakob Johnson
NE (at MIA)
|
|
139.
Elijhaa Penny
NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
140.
Brandon Bolden
NE (at MIA)
|
|
141.
Taiwan Jones
BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
142.
Frank Gore
FA (BYE)
|
|
143.
Andy Janovich
CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
144.
Scottie Phillips
HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
145.
LeSean McCoy
FA (BYE)
|
|
146.
Josh Adams
NO (at ATL)
|
|
147.
D'Onta Foreman
TEN (at HOU)
|
|
148.
Michael Burton
KC (at DEN)
|
|
149.
Raymond Calais
FA (BYE)
|
|
150.
Nate McCrary
BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
151.
Patrick Laird
MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
152.
Pooka Williams Jr.
CIN (at CLE)
|
|
153.
Derek Watt
PIT (at BAL)
|
|
154.
Trey Ragas
LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
155.
Reggie Gilliam
BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
156.
Tre Harbison
CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
157.
Damarea Crockett
DEN (vs . KC)
|
|
158.
Rodney Smith
TEN (at HOU)
|
|
159.
Alex Armah Jr.
WAS (at NYG)
|
|
160.
Brian Hill
FA (BYE)
|
|
161.
Theo Riddick
FA (BYE)
|
|
162.
Stevie Scott III
FA (BYE)
|
|
163.
Caleb Huntley
ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
164.
Adam Prentice
NO (at ATL)
|
|
165.
Reggie Bonnafon
CAR (at TB)
|
|
166.
Cullen Gillaspia
NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
167.
Dontrell Hilliard
TEN (at HOU)
|
|
168.
Jason Huntley
PHI (vs . DAL)
|
|
169.
Dedrick Mills
FA (BYE)
|
|
170.
Elijah McGuire
KC (at DEN)
|
|
171.
Lamar Miller
FA (BYE)
|
|
|
172.
Otis Anderson Jr.
FA (BYE)
|
|
173.
Rico Dowdle
DAL (at PHI)
|
|
174.
Gabe Nabers
LAC (at LV)
|
|
175.
Patrick Taylor Jr.
GB (at DET)
|
|
176.
T.J. Yeldon
FA (BYE)
|
|
177.
Jonathan Williams
NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
178.
JaQuan Hardy
DAL (at PHI)
|
|
179.
Ben Mason
FA (BYE)
|
|
|
180.
Rakeem Boyd
FA (BYE)
|
|
181.
Antonio Williams
BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
182.
Tony Brooks-James
FA (BYE)
|
|
183.
Johnny Stanton
CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
184.
Bo Scarbrough
LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
185.
Brenden Knox
FA (BYE)
|
|
186.
Dexter Williams
FA (BYE)
|
|
187.
Derrick Gore
KC (at DEN)
|
|
188.
Deon Jackson
IND (at JAC)
|
|
189.
Ryan Nall
CHI (at MIN)
|
|
190.
Troymaine Pope
FA (BYE)
|
|
191.
Craig Reynolds
DET (vs . GB)
|
|
192.
Buddy Howell
LAR (vs . SF)
|
|
193.
DeAndre Washington
FA (BYE)
|
|
194.
Brandin Bryant
BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
195.
LeVante Bellamy
DEN (vs . KC)
|
|
|
196.
Darius Victor
FA (BYE)
|
|
|
197.
Andre Anderson
BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
198.
Godwin Igwebuike
DET (vs . GB)
|
|
199.
Josh Hokit
SF (at LAR)
|
|
200.
Nathan Cottrell
JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
201.
Jacques Patrick
CAR (at TB)
|
|
202.
Christian Wade
FA (BYE)
|
|
203.
Darius Bradwell
LAC (at LV)
|
|
204.
B.J. Emmons
FA (BYE)
|
|
205.
Trey Edmunds
PIT (at BAL)
|
|
206.
John Kelly
CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
|
207.
Pete Guerriero
PIT (at BAL)
|
|
208.
Tyler Ervin
FA (BYE)
|
|
209.
Sandro Platzgummer
NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
210.
A.J. Rose Jr.
MIN (vs . CHI)
|
|
211.
Austin Walter
NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
212.
Sewo Olonilua
DAL (at PHI)
|
|
|
213.
Master Teague
FA (BYE)
|
|
|
214.
CJ Verdell
FA (BYE)
|
|
215.
C.J. Prosise
FA (BYE)
|
|
216.
Senorise Perry
FA (BYE)
|
|
217.
Alfred Morris
NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
218.
CJ Marable
FA (BYE)
|
|
219.
Garrett Groshek
FA (BYE)
|
|
220.
Jordan Scarlett
FA (BYE)
|
|
221.
Spencer Brown
CAR (at TB)
|
|
|
222.
Mason Stokke
CAR (at TB)
|
|
223.
Khalid Hill
FA (BYE)
|
|
|
224.
Corey Knox
FA (BYE)
|
|
225.
Javon Leake
DET (vs . GB)
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