Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 15 PPR Rankings
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1.
Trey McBride
ARI (at HOU)
For the first time since Week 5, McBride finished outside of the top six at the position. A stretch of seven games finishing within the top six, with six games within the top three, is unheard of. Unfortunately, he has two very difficult matchups coming up against the Texans and Falcons. However, the Bengals in championship week will likely single-handedly win people their leagues. However, we have to get there first. On the season, the Texans are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the TE position and less than 40 yards per game. Last week, they held Travis Kelce to one catch for eight yards. It may be a very tough matchup, but McBride is a different beast at the position. Start him with confidence despite the difficult matchup this week.
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2.
George Kittle
SF (vs . TEN)
Since his return in Week 7, Kittle has four weeks inside the top six at the position and has scored four touchdowns over that stretch. If you have managed to hold onto Kittle through his injury and made the playoffs, Kittle has a great schedule ahead. Starting with the Titans, who have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to the position since Week 9. This includes the sixth-most yards and sixth-most touchdowns to TEs over that stretch. With Trey McBride having two tough matchups ahead, there is an argument to be made for Kittle to be the TE1 over the next bit.
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3.
Brock Bowers
LV (at PHI)
There are two sides to every story, but there may be zero right answers. This is the case with Bowers, as we now have Kenny Pickett coming in for Geno Smith this week. We all know that Bowers is one of the elite talents at the position, but we also know the Raiders are an absolute mess. Last week, with Geno playing three quarters and Pickett coming in to finish the game, Bowers managed to score his third touchdown in the last two weeks and catch four passes for 46 yards. Touchdowns may be hard to come by with Pickett under center, but you can't sit a player like Bowers. Thankfully, his involvement provides a decent fantasy floor, and managers will have to hope he can keep his touchdown streak going.
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4.
Harold Fannin Jr.
CLE (at CHI)
After last week's monster performance, Fannin Jr. is the TE11 in fantasy points per game for the season. Since Week 12, with Shedeur Sanders under center, he has had a 23.9% target share with 65.7 receiving yards per game, 2.43 yards per route run, and a 25% first-read share. In those three games, he has one red zone target and two deep targets. Fannin draws another favorable matchup this week. Chicago has allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. He's a locked-in TE1.
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5.
Kyle Pitts Sr.
ATL (at TB)
Have we seen a turning point for Kyle Pitts? With back-to-back top-seven finishes at the position for the first time in his career, the Falcons are starting to use him differently. Either the team has decided to change his role, or this is a direct result of Drake London missing time. This week, London is already ruled out, setting up Pitts for another decent game. The Falcons take on the Bucs in a divisional showdown this Thursday. Over the last five weeks, the Bucs have been hovering around league average in fantasy points allowed to the TE. That said, we know that the Bucs' secondary can be exploited, and Pitts' receiver traits may be able to take advantage of the matchup. Keep riding high off of his 82 and 90-yard games this week.
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6.
Travis Kelce
KC (vs . LAC)
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7.
Tyler Warren
IND (at SEA)
Who doesn't love taking a shot in the dark heading into the fantasy playoffs? We know Tyler Warren is having a great rookie season. What we don't know is how Philip Rivers' return to the NFL will be. With Daniel Jones out for the rest of the season and Riley Leonard injuring his knee, it's up to the 44-year-old to try and salvage this season. Before he retired, Rivers was very friendly to the TE position. Helping Eric Ebron reach 13 touchdowns in 2018 with the Colts. It's truly anyone's guess how Rivers will be in his return, but Warren has the talent to continue to be a good fantasy option. Unless you have the safety of a known player like Brenton Strange or Kyle Pitts, you are likely locked into Warren and hoping for the best.
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8.
Mark Andrews
BAL (at CIN)
Mark Andrews has had a wildly disappointing season as the TE20 in fantasy points per game. In his last outing against Cincy, he was the TE17 for the week, securing four of his six targets with 47 receiving yards. Sadly, that is the most receiving yards Andrews has had in a game this season. Andrews has four TE1 weekly finishes this season, but they have all been fueled by touchdowns. The last time the Ravens faced the Bengals, they utilized two high with 52.6% of their defensive snaps. Against two high, Andrews has had a 15% target share with 0.77 yards per route run and a 23.2% first-read share. Andrews could have a strong game against this porous pass defense, and it wouldn't shock me, but he easily could flop again. The range of outcomes for Andrews is wide this week, which makes him tough to trust in the first round of the fantasy playoffs. Cincy has allowed the most receiving yards, yards per target, and fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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9.
Jake Ferguson
DAL (vs . MIN)
Jake Ferguson is the TE5 in fantasy points per game with an 18.3% target share, 42.6 receiving yards per game, 1.40 yards per route run, and a 20.3% first-read share. Ferguson ranks second amongst tight ends in red zone targets with 21, while also seeing four deep targets. The Vikings are a middle-of-the-road matchup that Ferguson could exploit this week. Minnesota has allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends while ranking 17th in receiving yards per game. Ferguson is dealing with a calf injury. He didn't practice on Thursday, but he had limited practices on Wednesday and Friday. He has been listed as questionable. If you're depending on Ferguson this week, make sure you have a backup plan at tight end. With this game not kicking off until Sunday night, you might be left picking up Pat Freiermuth or Jonnu Smith as an emergency play.Â
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10.
Brenton Strange
JAC (vs . NYJ)
Just as everyone bought into Brenton Strange last week, he tosses a dud. Last week, in a wonderful matchup, he secured only three of his six targets for 27 scoreless receiving yards. Since Week 12, he has two TE1 weekly finishes (TE4, TE7) while drawing a 17% target share with 55 receiving yards per game, 2.39 yards per route run, and a 17.7% first-read share. In those three games, he has had three red zone targets and four deep targets. This isn't the week to consider going back to Strange. Since Week 9, the Jets have allowed the 12th-fewest receiving yards per game and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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11.
Dalton Kincaid
BUF (at NE)
Last week, Dalton Kincaid had only a 41.7% route share. Sure, he paid off for fantasy with a 17.9% target share, 41 receiving yards, 2.73 yards per route run, a touchdown, and a 27.8% first-read share, but that is a tough bet to make weekly. With that limited route share, Kincaid has to get peppered with targets and hopefully score a touchdown to pay off. He's been a limited snap player all year, but a 50-60% route share is a different conversation from a player living in the 40s. Could he pay off again this week? It's possible. New England has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Starting Kincaid this week depends upon your willingness to embrace risk and your options at tight end. I don't think Kincaid's knee and hamstring will be much healthier than they were last week, so he's probably looking at a similar route share range in Week 15.
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12.
Theo Johnson
NYG (vs . WAS)
With Jaxson Dart under center, Theo Johnson has been the TE12 in fantasy points per game with five top-12 finishes among tight ends in weekly scoring. Since Week 4, Johnson has had a 19.1% target share with 40.7 receiving yards per game, 1.49 yards per route run, and a 22.5% first-read share. In those 10 games, he has had nine red-zone targets, four deep targets, and five receiving touchdowns. Johnson could easily be a TE1 again this week. Washington has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards, the second-highest yards per target, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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13.
Hunter Henry
NE (vs . BUF)
Hunter Henry is the TE12 in fantasy points per game with four TE1 weekly outings. Henry has a 17% target share with 46.9 receiving yards per game, 1.76 yards per route run, and a 19.3% first-read share. Henry leads the team with 16 red zone targets while also seeing six deep targets. This isn't a week to plug Henry into the starting lineup. The Bills have been an elite team at covering tight ends for the last few seasons, and this one isn't any different. Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards per game and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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14.
Isaiah Likely
BAL (at CIN)
The last time Isaiah Likely faced Cincy in Week 13, he secured five of his six targets with 95 receiving yards as the TE9 for the week. In that same game, the Bengals utilized two high with 52.6% of their defensive snaps. Against two high, Likely has had a 13.8% target share with 1.41 yards per route run and a 10.5% first-read share. Likely has been the more productive tight end this season for Baltimore against two high this season, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him outproduce Mark Andrews again. Likely is a solid streaming option at tight end this week. Cincy has allowed the most receiving yards, yards per target, and fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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15.
Dalton Schultz
HOU (vs . ARI)
Since Week 3, Dalton Schultz has been the TE13 in fantasy points per game with an 18.2% target share, 47 receiving yards per game, 1.53 yards per route run, and a 19.2% first-read share. In those 11 games, he has had seven red zone targets, five deep targets, and only one touchdown. Schultz is a strong TE1 this week. The Cardinals have allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per target, and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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16.
Juwan Johnson
NO (vs . CAR)
Since Week 9, with Tyler Shough under center, Juwan Johnson has been the TE8 in fantasy points per game with a 17.3% target share, 49.2 receiving yards per game, 1.94 yards per route run, and an 18.8% first-read share. In those five games, Johnson has had two red zone targets and one deep target. This week, he faces a Carolina pass defense that, since Week 8, has utilized single high at the seventh-highest rate (58.5%). Since Week 9, against single high, Johnson has had a 20.6% target share with 1.75 yards per route run and a 22.9% first-read share. Johnson could easily be a TE1 again this week. Carolina has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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17.
Colston Loveland
CHI (vs . CLE)
Since Week 10, Colston Loveland has been the TE15 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weekly scoring outings. In those five games, he has had a 54.6% route share, a 13.8% target share, 40.2 receiving yards per game, 1.90 yards per route run, and a 14.1% first-read share. In that span, he has three red zone targets and zero deep targets. Loveland is best left on the bench this week. Cleveland has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the 12th-fewest yards per target to tight ends this season.
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18.
AJ Barner
SEA (vs . IND)
AJ Barner is a wonderful streaming option this week at tight end. Barner is the TE22 in fantasy points per game with four top-12 weekly finishes among tight ends. Barner has had a 13.1% target share with 29.7 receiving yards per game, 1.57 yards per route run, and an 11.7% first-read share. Barner has two deep targets while ranking second on the team in red zone targets (ten). Indy has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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19.
Dallas Goedert
PHI (vs . LV)
After last week's strong game, Dallas Goedert is the TE10 in fantasy points per game with an 18.1% target share, 40.1 receiving yards per game, 1.41 yards per route run, and a 19.8% first-read share. He has eight red zone targets and six deep targets. This isn't the week to auto plug Goedert into your lineups. The Raiders have been tough against tight ends, allowing the third-fewest receiving yards per game and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Consider other options at tight end this week.
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20.
Mike Gesicki
CIN (vs . BAL)
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21.
Darren Waller
MIA (at PIT)
Since his return to the lineup, Darren Waller has had a 60.8% route share, a 13.6% target share, 30 receiving yards per game, 1.94 yards per route run, and an 18.8% first-read share. All of those per-route metrics look solid to really damn good. The problem is that with Miami skewing so run-heavy, the market share of targets for Waller has amounted to only three targets per game. With the limited weekly raw volume now, Waller is a touchdown-or-bust streaming option. In his last two games, he has one red zone target and two deep targets. Waller is best left on the bench this week. Since Week 9, Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per target, the 11th-fewest receiving yards per game, and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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22.
Colby Parkinson
LAR (vs . DET)
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23.
Oronde Gadsden II
LAC (at KC)
Last week, in the Chargers' run-first offense, Gadsden had a 15.4% target share with a 7.7% first-read share. He turned his four targets into only one reception for seven yards. The lack of passing volume in this offense makes Gadsden a tough player to trust in any format. Since Week 11, Kansas City has had the third-highest two-high rate (62.2%). Since Week 6, against two high, Gadsden has ranked second on the team with a 17.8% target share with 2.08 yards per route run (leads the team) and a 20% first-read share. Gadsden is in the streaming/low-end TE1 area code this week, and that's probably a rosier outlook than he deserves, but the matchup is nice. Since Week 10, Kansas City has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards, the sixth-most yards per target, and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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24.
Evan Engram
DEN (vs . GB)
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25.
Gunnar Helm
TEN (at SF)
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26.
T.J. Hockenson
MIN (at DAL)
T.J. Hockenson has two TE1 weekly finishes this season, and neither happened with JJ McCarthy under center. With McCarthy chucking the rock, Hockenson's best weekly output was last week as the TE15 for the week. In his seven games with McCarthy under center, Hockenson has had a 13.7% target share (3.6 targets per game) with 16.6 receiving yards per game, 0.74 yards per route run, and a 13.2% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had only two red zone targets and zero deep targets. Hockenson is only a desperation streaming option this week. Dallas has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards and ranked 18th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
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27.
Pat Freiermuth
PIT (vs . MIA)
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28.
Chig Okonkwo
TEN (at SF)
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29.
Dawson Knox
BUF (at NE)
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30.
Cole Kmet
CHI (vs . CLE)
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31.
Jonnu Smith
PIT (vs . MIA)
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32.
Ja'Tavion Sanders
CAR (at NO)
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33.
John Bates
WAS (at NYG)
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34.
Ben Sinnott
WAS (at NYG)
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35.
Greg Dulcich
MIA (at PIT)
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36.
Taysom Hill
NO (vs . CAR)
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37.
Luke Musgrave
GB (at DEN)
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38.
Darnell Washington
PIT (vs . MIA)
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39.
Noah Fant
CIN (vs . BAL)
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40.
Davis Allen
LAR (vs . DET)
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41.
Payne Durham
TB (vs . ATL)
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42.
Terrance Ferguson
LAR (vs . DET)
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43.
Elijah Higgins
ARI (at HOU)
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44.
Noah Gray
KC (vs . LAC)
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45.
Josh Oliver
MIN (at DAL)
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46.
Jeremy Ruckert
NYJ (at JAC)
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47.
Anthony Firkser
DET (at LAR)
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48.
Tommy Tremble
CAR (at NO)
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49.
Austin Hooper
NE (vs . BUF)
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50.
Josh Whyle
GB (at DEN)
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51.
Adam Trautman
DEN (vs . GB)
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52.
David Njoku
CLE (at CHI)
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53.
Cade Stover
HOU (vs . ARI)
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54.
Michael Mayer
LV (at PHI)
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55.
Mitchell Evans
CAR (at NO)
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56.
John FitzPatrick
GB (at DEN)
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57.
Foster Moreau
NO (vs . CAR)
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58.
Daniel Bellinger
NYG (vs . WAS)
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59.
Luke Schoonmaker
DAL (vs . MIN)
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60.
Charlie Kolar
BAL (at CIN)
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61.
Ian Thomas
LV (at PHI)
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62.
Tanner Hudson
CIN (vs . BAL)
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63.
Devin Culp
TB (vs . ATL)
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64.
Drew Sample
CIN (vs . BAL)
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65.
Jackson Hawes
BUF (at NE)
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66.
Colson Yankoff
WAS (at NYG)
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67.
Blake Whiteheart
CLE (at CHI)
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68.
Grant Calcaterra
PHI (vs . LV)
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69.
Mo Alie-Cox
IND (at SEA)
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70.
Elijah Arroyo
SEA (vs . IND)
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71.
Julian Hill
MIA (at PIT)
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72.
Connor Heyward
PIT (vs . MIA)
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73.
Brevyn Spann-Ford
DAL (vs . MIN)
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74.
Luke Farrell
SF (vs . TEN)
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75.
Will Dissly
LAC (at KC)
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76.
Hunter Long
JAC (vs . NYJ)
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77.
Charlie Woerner
ATL (at TB)
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78.
Drew Ogletree
IND (at SEA)
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79.
Durham Smythe
CHI (vs . CLE)
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80.
Nick Kallerup
SEA (vs . IND)
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81.
Quintin Morris
JAC (vs . NYJ)
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82.
Jake Tonges
SF (vs . TEN)
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83.
Kylen Granson
PHI (vs . LV)
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84.
Shane Zylstra
DET (at LAR)
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85.
Jack Stoll
NO (vs . CAR)
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86.
David Martin-Robinson
TEN (at SF)
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87.
Robert Tonyan
KC (vs . LAC)
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88.
Andrew Beck
NYJ (at JAC)
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89.
Nate Adkins
DEN (vs . GB)
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90.
Pharaoh Brown
ARI (at HOU)
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91.
Chris Manhertz
NYG (vs . WAS)
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92.
Teagan Quitoriano
ATL (at TB)
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93.
Jared Wiley
KC (vs . LAC)
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94.
Josiah Deguara
ARI (at HOU)
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95.
Tyler Conklin
LAC (at KC)
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96.
Robbie Ouzts
SEA (vs . IND)
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97.
James Mitchell
CAR (at NO)
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98.
Johnny Mundt
JAC (vs . NYJ)
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99.
Ben Sims
MIN (at DAL)
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100.
Stone Smartt
NYJ (at JAC)
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101.
Jack Westover
NE (vs . BUF)
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102.
Nick Vannett
LAR (vs . DET)
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103.
Brenden Bates
CLE (at CHI)
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104.
Jordan Franks
FA (BYE)
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105.
Ross Dwelley
FA (BYE)
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106.
Cameron Latu
PHI (vs . LV)
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107.
Carter Runyon
LV (at PHI)
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108.
Eric Saubert
SEA (vs . IND)
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109.
Will Mallory
IND (at SEA)
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110.
Hayden Rucci
MIA (at PIT)
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111.
Keleki Latu
BUF (at NE)
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112.
Jelani Woods
NYJ (at JAC)
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113.
Tanner Taula
TB (vs . ATL)
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114.
Giovanni Ricci
DET (at LAR)
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115.
Brady Russell
SEA (vs . IND)
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