Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 3 Rankings
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1.
Travis Kelce
KC (vs . CHI)
Kelce played 64% of the snaps last week, and he still led the team with a 22.0% Target share. He had a 36% TPRR and 1.04 YPRR as he drew nine targets. Hopefully, another week post-injury, we see Kelce closer to a full snap share, but even on limited reps, he's still a lock for eight or more targets. The lesson is that if Kelce is active, you play him. End of story. Week 3 Positional Value: Must-start always
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2.
Mark Andrews
BAL (vs . IND)
Last week, in his first game action, Andrews had a 75% route run per team dropback rate, a 24.2% Target share, 27% TPRR, and 1.50 YPRR. As you can see from the above chart, he's the clear number-one option for the team against zone coverage. Andrews should feast this week. Last season, Indy allowed the sixth-highest yards per reception to tight ends. This year, they have permitted the ninth-most receiving yards and 11th-highest yards per reception to the position. Week 3 Positional Value: Top-three TE
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3.
T.J. Hockenson
MIN (vs . LAC)
Hockenson has a 19.3% Target share, ranking third in receiving grade and ninth in YPRR. He's the TE1 overall in fantasy right now. He faces a Bolts' defense that allowed the 12th-most receiving yards and second-highest yards per reception to tight ends last season. Week 3 Positional Value: Top 3-5 TE
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4.
George Kittle
SF (vs . NYG)
Kittle has a 16.7% Target share, a 10.8% air yard share, and 1.07 YPRR after two games. He's third on the team with a 15.8% first-read share. Kittle took a backseat last season against man coverage, so temper your expectations in Week 3. The matchup does lend itself for him to possibly be the second read this week for Purdy over Samuel, though. Last season, New York allowed the ninth-most receiving yards and 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends. Week 3 Positional Value: Top-12 TE option
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5.
Darren Waller
NYG (at SF)
Waller looked healthy in Week 2. He ranked fifth in route run per team dropback rate (80%) among tight ends. He was second in target volume (tied with Mark Andrews), behind only Travis Kelce. Waller was also fourth among tight ends in percentage of the team's receiving yardage in Week 2. Waller had a 21.6% Target share and a 20% air yard share. Over the last three years, Waller has ranked 16th, tenth, and sixth in receiving grade against zone coverage. The 49ers were tough against tight ends last season, allowing the 11th-fewest receiving yards, sixth-lowest yards per reception, and eighth-fewest touchdowns. Week 3 Positional Value: Top-Five TE
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6.
Dallas Goedert
PHI (at TB)
Goedert has a 17.9% Target share with a 30% first-read share against zone this season. His 0.50 YPRR doesn't worry me at all. Last year, he ranked sixth in receiving grade and YPRR against zone, so I'm chalking that inefficiency up to a small sample variance. Tampa Bay is a plus matchup for Goedert. The Buccaneers have allowed the 13th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Last year, they gave up the seventh-most fantasy points and the 11th-most receiving yards to the position. Week 3 Positional Value: TE1
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7.
Evan Engram
JAC (vs . HOU)
Engram has a 17.6% Target share and a 20.7% first-read share. He ranks third in receiving grade and sixth in YPRR among tight ends (minimum six targets). Engram has been stonewalled in the red zone, as only Ridley and Jones have drawn targets inside the 20. Houston is 17th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends, but they have allowed the sixth-highest yards per reception. Week 3 Positional Value: TE1
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8.
Sam LaPorta
DET (vs . ATL)
Around here, we stan Sammy Ballgame. Don't look now, rookie tight-end haters. LaPorta is the TE6 in fantasy points per game. He's sixth in receiving grade, third in YPRR, and 11th in YAC per reception. Last week, his route run per team dropback rate ranked seventh (78.4%). Last year, Atlanta allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. This season, they have surrendered the 11th-most fantasy points to the position. Week 3 Positional Value: Locked-in TE1
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9.
Kyle Pitts
ATL (at DET)
Pitts has a 16.0% Target share and a 34.0% air-yard share, which sounds great until you realize that Pitts is the TE32 in fantasy points per game. He has not been a priority against zone coverage, ranking third on the team in Target share (14.3%) and fourth in TPRR (15%). Sadly, his TPRR ranks immediately behind fellow tight end Jonnu Smith. Detroit gave up a ton of production to tight ends last season, but that all came against inline tight ends. Against slot tight ends, they allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points (Pitts 50% slot). Week 3 Positional Value: TE2 that can pop off as a TE1 in any week
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10.
David Njoku
CLE (vs . TEN)
Let's continue our lovely ride on the pain train. Njoku's name value in fantasy circles has eclipsed his production this season. He's currently the TE29 in fantasy points per game, immediately behind Tyler Conklin. He's running a route on 75% of the team dropbacks, but that hasn't helped Watson to look his way. Among 38 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 27th in Target share, 25th in first-read share, and 22nd in YPRR. This could be the matchup to get him going, though. Tennessee has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and third-highest yards per reception to tight ends. They had similar struggles stopping tight ends last year, giving up the most receiving yards and sixth-highest yards per reception to the position. Week 3 Positional Value: low-end TE1
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11.
Taysom Hill
NO (at GB)
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12.
Hunter Henry
NE (at NYJ)
Henry is the TE2 in fantasy, which is more telling about the position this season than Henry's performance. Henry has a 65% route run per team dropback rate and a 13.5% Target share. Don't get me wrong. He has been solid, but not TE2 overall spectacular. Henry is seventh in receiving grade and 12th in YPRR. Last year, New York allowed the ninth-highest yards per reception, sixth-most receiving yards, and the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. All of this sounds fantastic, but also remember Henry hasn't crossed the 30-yard receiving threshold in his last two meetings against this defense. Week 3 Positional Value: low-end TE1/high-end TE2
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13.
Pat Freiermuth
PIT (at LV)
It's sad, but as bad as Pickett has been playing, Freiermuth has been downgraded to a matchup-based streaming option. Freiermuth's usage has been abysmal. He's only seen a 58.3% route run per team dropback rate with a 6.6% Target share and 0.10 YPRR. The matchup is right this week, though. The Raiders have allowed the tenth-most receiving yards, the eighth-highest catch rate, and the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Week 3 Positional Value: TE2 matchup-based streamer
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14.
Dalton Kincaid
BUF (at WAS)
Kincaid has mustered a 13.5% Target share and an 8.7% air-yard share while running 55% of his routes from the slot. He is third on the team with two red zone targets. Among 34 qualifying tight ends, he is 20th in receiving grade and 16th in YPRR. Much like with Knox, this isn't the week to play Kincaid. Week 3 Positional Value: Must-sit TE2
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15.
Zach Ertz
ARI (vs . DAL)
Ertz has a 78.5% route run per team dropback rate with a 29.5% Target share, a 27.0% air yard share, and a 30.2% first-read share. He ranks 23rd in receiving grade and seventh in YPRR (minimum six targets). Last year, Dallas allowed the sixth-lowest receiving yards and second-lowest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 3 Positional Value: volume-based TE2 with low-end TE1 upside
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16.
Jake Ferguson
DAL (at ARI)
Ferguson has only a 46.2% route run per team dropback rate. He's seen a 15.9% Target share with a 33% TPRR. Ferguson leads the NFL with seven red zone targets. His touchdown equity in this offense is massive. Last year, Arizona allowed the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends. This season, they have given up the third-most receiving yards and fifth-highest yards per reception to the position. Week 3 Positional Value: TE2 matchup-based streaming option
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17.
Tyler Higbee
LAR (at CIN)
Higbee has a 9.7% Target share and 79.8% route run per team dropback rate. Higbee is a matchup-based streamer at this point. Like Van Jefferson, he has taken a backseat to Nacua and Atwell. The Bengals offer a good matchup, though. Cincinnati has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends and is tied with the second-most receiving touchdowns allowed to the position. Week 3 Positional Value: TE2
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18.
Cole Kmet
CHI (at KC)
Kmet has an 18.2% Target share and a 22.6% air yard share. Among 34 qualifying tight ends, he ranks eighth in receiving grade and 11th in YPRR. Kmet faces a Chiefs' defense that has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends. Last season, Kansas City gave up the tenth-highest yards per reception and the most fantasy points to slot tight ends (Kmet 51.3% slot rate). Week 3 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside this week
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19.
Luke Musgrave
GB (vs . NO)
Sit Musgrave this week. That is all. It doesn't have to be complicated. New Orleans has been and remains a shutdown defense against tight ends. This season, the Saints have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and zero scores to the position. Last year, they gave up the fewest receiving yards, the fewest fantasy points, and only two receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Do not play Musgrave this week. Week 3 Positional Value: Must Sit
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20.
Juwan Johnson
NO (at GB)
Johnson's usage has been borderline TE1-worthy. He has an 11.4% Target share and a 13.3% first-read share. He has run a route on 70.9% of the team's dropbacks. That's not as high as we would like, but it's not terrible. If Thomas gets locked up this week with Alexander, it could push some target volume his way. Last year, Green Bay was quite good against tight ends, allowing the second-fewest receiving yards and sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position. After two games, maybe we are seeing a turning of the tide as Green Bay has allowed the 13th-highest yards per reception and the 12th-most receiving yards to tight ends. Week 3 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside this week.
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21.
Dalton Schultz
HOU (at JAC)
Schultz is an afterthought in this offense. He has a 77.4% route run per team dropback rate, but he's only drawn a 9.1% Target share and produced 0.10 YPRR. His Target share only climbs to 9.4% against zone (12% TPRR, 0.15 YPRR). This week, Schultz qualifies as a matchup streamer against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards and ninth-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 3 Positional Value: low-end TE2 matchup-based streaming option
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22.
Gerald Everett
LAC (at MIN)
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23.
Hayden Hurst
CAR (at SEA)
I feel like cherry-picking. I'm not bothering with Hurst's usage against the no-fly zone for tight ends known as the Saints' defense that he encountered in Week 2. No one should have expected Hurst to do anything against that defense. In Week 1, Hurst had a 64.3% route run per team dropback rate with an 18.4% Target share, 26% TPRR, and 1.52 YPRR. Those are excellent numbers, although I do think the route run rate was higher. Hurst should be a focal point of the passing attack against a defense that has struggled against tight ends over the last two seasons. This year, Seattle has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards and the highest yards per reception to the position. Week 3 Positional Value: low-end TE1
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24.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
TEN (at CLE)
Oknokwo has been a major disappointment so far. While he's had a serviceable 66.7% route run per team dropback rate, it hasn't translated into production. He has only a 10.3% Target share and an 11.9% first-read share, which both rank 26th among 38 qualifying tight ends. Add in his 0.76 YPRR, and he's barely even streamer-worthy material. Cleveland was tough against tight ends last season, and that's translated to this year. The Browns have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to the position and zero touchdowns. Week 3 Positional Value: low-end TE2
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25.
Cade Otton
TB (vs . PHI)
Otton has a strong 76% route run per team dropback rate with a 13.2% Target share and 16% TPRR. He's a strong matchup-based streamer this week. Philly has allowed the second-most receiving yards and the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season. Week 3 Positional Value: TE2 with TE1 upside
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26.
Dawson Knox
BUF (at WAS)
Knox has a 12.1% Target share and ranks second behind only Diggs in red zone targets on the team. Among 34 qualifying tight ends, he is 31st in receiving grade and YPRR. This isn't the week to consider streaming Knox. Last year, Washington allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends and the tenth-fewest fantasy points to slot tight ends (Knox 52% slot rate). Week 3 Positional Value: low-end TE2
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27.
Durham Smythe
MIA (vs . DEN)
Smythe is also in the streaming conversation this week. He has been an every-down player for the Dolphins with an 85% route run per team dropback rate. He has a 13.3% Target share (1.00 YPRR) with one red zone target. Denver has been a turnstile for tight ends for the last two seasons. Last year, they gave up the fifth-most receiving yard and fantasy point. This season so far, they have yielded the 11th-most receiving yards and the ninth-most fantasy points. Week 3 Positional Value: Top-shelf TE streaming option
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28.
Kylen Granson
IND (at BAL)
Granson has a 64.6% route run per team dropback rate and a 13.9% Target share. These are TE2-worthy streamer-worthy numbers when the right matchup presents itself. Sadly, that is not this week. This season, Baltimore has held tight ends to the fifth-fewest receiving yards and second-lowest yards per reception. They were tough against the position last season as well, holding tight ends to the seventh-fewest receiving yards and ninth-fewest fantasy points. Week 3 Positional Value: Must-sit TE2
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29.
Adam Trautman
DEN (at MIA)
Trautman enters the streaming category this week. His 9.1% Target share, 0.71 YPRR, and 60.8% route run per team dropback don't scream upside, but the matchup is sexy. Last season, Miami allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and third-most fantasy points to tight ends. This season, it's been much of the same as the Dolphins have surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards and the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. Week 3 Positional Value: Top-shelf TE streaming option
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30.
Mike Gesicki
NE (at NYJ)
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31.
Noah Fant
SEA (vs . CAR)
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32.
Trey McBride
ARI (vs . DAL)
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33.
Tyler Conklin
NYJ (vs . NE)
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34.
Noah Gray
KC (vs . CHI)
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35.
Cole Turner
WAS (vs . BUF)
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36.
Donald Parham Jr.
LAC (at MIN)
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37.
Jonnu Smith
ATL (at DET)
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38.
John Bates
WAS (vs . BUF)
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39.
Austin Hooper
LV (vs . PIT)
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40.
Michael Mayer
LV (vs . PIT)
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41.
Colby Parkinson
SEA (vs . CAR)
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42.
Isaiah Likely
BAL (vs . IND)
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43.
Josh Oliver
MIN (vs . LAC)
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44.
Mo Alie-Cox
IND (at BAL)
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45.
Harrison Bryant
CLE (vs . TEN)
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46.
Brock Wright
DET (vs . ATL)
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47.
Drew Sample
CIN (vs . LAR)
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48.
Peyton Hendershot
DAL (at ARI)
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49.
Irv Smith Jr.
CIN (vs . LAR)
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50.
Brevin Jordan
HOU (at JAC)
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51.
Robert Tonyan
CHI (at KC)
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52.
Brycen Hopkins
LAR (at CIN)
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53.
Luke Schoonmaker
DAL (at ARI)
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54.
Daniel Bellinger
NYG (at SF)
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55.
C.J. Uzomah
NYJ (vs . NE)
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56.
Josiah Deguara
GB (vs . NO)
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57.
Mitchell Wilcox
CIN (vs . LAR)
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58.
Ko Kieft
TB (vs . PHI)
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59.
Stone Smartt
LAC (at MIN)
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60.
Jordan Akins
CLE (vs . TEN)
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61.
Connor Heyward
PIT (at LV)
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62.
David Wells
TB (vs . PHI)
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63.
Teagan Quitoriano
HOU (at JAC)
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64.
Darnell Washington
PIT (at LV)
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65.
Andrew Ogletree
IND (at BAL)
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66.
Ian Thomas
CAR (at SEA)
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67.
Chris Manhertz
DEN (at MIA)
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68.
Tommy Tremble
CAR (at SEA)
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69.
Jimmy Graham
NO (at GB)
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70.
Will Dissly
SEA (vs . CAR)
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71.
Jeremy Ruckert
NYJ (vs . NE)
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72.
Blake Bell
KC (vs . CHI)
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73.
Quintin Morris
BUF (at WAS)
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74.
Ross Dwelley
SF (vs . NYG)
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75.
Luke Farrell
JAC (vs . HOU)
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76.
Brenton Strange
JAC (vs . HOU)
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77.
James Mitchell
DET (vs . ATL)
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78.
Trevon Wesco
TEN (at CLE)
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79.
Giovanni Ricci
CAR (at SEA)
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80.
MyCole Pruitt
ATL (at DET)
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81.
Tucker Kraft
GB (vs . NO)
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82.
Charlie Woerner
SF (vs . NYG)
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83.
Nate Adkins
DEN (at MIA)
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84.
Charlie Kolar
BAL (vs . IND)
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85.
Grant Calcaterra
PHI (at TB)
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86.
Geoff Swaim
ARI (vs . DAL)
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87.
Andrew Beck
HOU (at JAC)
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88.
Julian Hill
MIA (vs . DEN)
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89.
Pharaoh Brown
NE (at NYJ)
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90.
Jack Stoll
PHI (at TB)
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91.
Jacob Harris
JAC (vs . HOU)
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92.
Josh Whyle
TEN (at CLE)
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93.
Marcedes Lewis
CHI (at KC)
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94.
Tre' McKitty
LAC (at MIN)
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95.
Brady Russell
SEA (vs . CAR)
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96.
Brayden Willis
SF (vs . NYG)
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97.
Albert Okwuegbunam
PHI (at TB)
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98.
Johnny Mundt
MIN (vs . LAC)
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99.
Payne Durham
TB (vs . PHI)
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100.
Jesper Horsted
LV (vs . PIT)
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101.
Davis Allen
LAR (at CIN)
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102.
Ben Sims
GB (vs . NO)
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103.
Elijah Higgins
ARI (vs . DAL)
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104.
Matt Bushman
KC (vs . CHI)
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105.
Parker Hesse
ATL (at DET)
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