Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 16 Rankings
|
1.
George Kittle
SF (at IND)
George Kittle is back to doing Kittle things. With four receptions in every game he has played but one, not only does he have a consistent fantasy floor, but he is back to being a fantasy difference maker. With a top 8 finish in six games of his eight games, and 60 or more yards in five consecutive games, he is the second-best fantasy option behind only Trey McBride. Even though the Colts are averaging the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the TE position over the last five weeks, Kittle remains a great option. If you have managed to hang onto Kittle in the fantasy playoffs, feel confident in riding him the rest of the way.
|
|
2.
Trey McBride
ARI (vs . ATL)
You may think you know that McBride is having a good year, but here are a few stats that put his performance in perspective. Currently, McBride has 41 more targets, 28 more receptions, and 274 more yards than the next highest TEs. The gap in fantasy points between McBride and the next best fantasy TE (Travis Kelce) is equivalent to the gap between Kelce and the TE 25 (Darren Waller). As a result, the fact that he plays the Falcons this week shouldn't matter. Even though the Falcons have been the third-best defense against fantasy TEs on the season, they drop to the 12th-fewest over the last five weeks. Don't worry about any of that. McBride is a true fantasy X factor this year.
|
|
3.
Kyle Pitts Sr.
ATL (at ARI)
Kyle Pitts scored 7% of his career fantasy points last Thursday Night against the Buccaneers. He also scored 28% of his career touchdowns last week. All these points define what it means to have an outlier game. Having said that, in the absence of Drake London, Pitts has taken a step forward for his fantasy production. Although early in the week, it appears that the Falcons are hoping to have London back against the Cardinals. If he does return, Pitts' managers will be left in Limbo, wondering the impact of his involvement. That said, with the stretch of games Pitts is on, he is locked into all lineups.
|
|
4.
Brock Bowers
LV (at HOU)
This has been the tale of Bowers' season all year. With the Raiders as a team holding him back, he is a name that is cemented into your lineups, despite having a low floor. Thankfully, he has overcome his situation with a top 10 finish in five of the last seven games. However, in the other two games, he finished outside of the top 20 at the position. Last week, with Kenny Pickett under center, he had one of those weeks outside the top 20. With their QB for Week 16 still uncertain, managers need to hope Geno Smith can return for a very difficult game against the Texans. On the season, the Texans are allowing the eighth fewest fantasy points to the position. Having said that, they just allowed 134 yards and two scores to Trey McBride. I'm not going to be the one to tell you to bench Bowers in the fantasy playoffs, but I also wouldn't be the one chastizing you for doing so. All I ask, it consider what other options are available before locking him into your lineup for the biggest week of the season so far.
|
|
5.
Harold Fannin Jr.
CLE (vs . BUF)
Since Week 12, with Shedeur Sanders under center, Fannin has been the TE5 in fantasy points per game with a 28.5% target share, 61.3 receiving yards per game, 2.08 yards per route run, and a 31.8% first-read share. In those four games, Fannin has had three red zone targets and two deep targets (two touchdowns). Fannin could see enough volume to carry him across the TE1 line for this week, but I'm worried. I don't like starting tight ends against the Bills. This pass defense has been elite against tight ends for the last few seasons. This year, Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
|
|
6.
Travis Kelce
KC (at TEN)
Travis Kelce is the TE5 in fantasy points per game with a 17.9% target share, 56.9 receiving yards per game, 1.82 yards per route run, and a 19.1% first-read share. Kelce has 11 red zone targets and seven deep targets this season. Even with Gardner Minshew tossing him passes, Kelce is a strong TE1 this week. Since Week 9, Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most yards per target and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
|
|
7.
Dallas Goedert
PHI (at WAS)
Dallas Goedert is the TE7 in fantasy points per game while garnering a 19% target share with 42.4 receiving yards per game, 1.54 yards per route run, and a 21.6% first-read share. Goedert has smashed in each of the last two games as the TE5 and TE3 in weekly scoring. He is tied for the team lead in red zone targets with 11 while also kicking in six deep targets. Goedert could be a top-five tight end again this week. Since Week 10, Washington has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game and the third-most yards per target to tight ends.
|
|
8.
Colby Parkinson
LAR (at SEA)
Over the last two weeks, Colby Parkinson has been the TE11 and TE5 in weekly scoring, and he could easily stack another TE1 finish this week. Since Week 14, Parkinson has had a 63.9% route share, a 17.4% target share, 53.5 receiving yards per game, 2.33 yards per route run, and a 16.4% first-read share. In those two games, he has seen a whopping seven red zone targets and two deep targets with three touchdowns. Seattle has been a good matchup for tight ends this season, giving up the ninth-most yards per target and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Parkinson is a STRONG TE1 this week. I expect Matthew Stafford to lean on him as the second option in the passing attack behind Puka Nacua with Davante Adams out.
|
|
9.
Dalton Schultz
HOU (vs . LV)
Since Week 7, Dalton Schultz has been the TE9 in fantasy points per game with six TE1 weekly finishes. Since Week 7, Schultz has had a 19.2% target share with 51.6 receiving yards per game, 1.60 yards per route run, and an 18.3% first-read share. In those nine games, Schultz has had six red zone targets and four deep targets with two touchdowns. Since Week 11, the Raiders have ranked 19th in yards per target and 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Schultz could be a TE1 again this week.
|
|
10.
Colston Loveland
CHI (vs . GB)
In his last meeting with Green Bay, Coltson Loveland secured four of his five targets with 29 receiving yards and a touchdown as the TE9 for the week. Since Week 10, Loveland has had a 14.4% target share, 44 receiving yards per game, 2.13 yards per route run, and a 15.7% first-read share. In those six games, Loveland has had four red zone targets and one deep target. Caleb Williams will lean on him more this week with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden out. Loveland has the talent to overcome a bad matchup as he did in his first meeting with this defense, but it won't be easy. Since Week 10, Green Bay has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per target and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
|
|
11.
Darren Waller
MIA (vs . CIN)
Excluding the Week 7 game, where Waller left early with the pec injury, he has had a 61.5% route share with a 15.7% target share, 40.5 receiving yards per game, 2.11 yards per route run, and an 18.9% first-read share. In those six games, Waller has had seven red zone targets, four deep targets, and six touchdowns. In that span, he has averaged 13.5 PPR points per game, which over the course of the entire season would make him the TE5 in fantasy points per game. Waller the Baller should cook again this week. The Bengals have allowed the most receiving yards and the most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
|
|
12.
Tyler Warren
IND (vs . SF)
Tyler Warren is the TE10 in fantasy points per game. Warren has a 19.3% target share with 51.3 receiving yards per game, 1.82 yards per route run, and an 18.4% first-read share. Warren leads the team with 16 red zone targets while seeing only two deep targets this season. Last week, Warren finished as the TE30 for the week with three receptions, 19 receiving yards, a 22.2% target share, and a 26.1% first-read share. He could easily bounce back this week as a low-end TE1. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards, the 11th-most yards per target, and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
|
|
13.
Oronde Gadsden II
LAC (at DAL)
Last week, Gadsden saw his route share dip to 54.5% while he still had a 17.2% target share with 61 receiving yards (3.39 yards per route run), and a 13.6% first-read share. Over the last two games, Gadsden has finished as the TE50 and TE15 in weekly scoring with a 16.4% target share, 34 receiving yards per game, 1.45 yards per route run, an 11.4% first-read share, and two deep targets (zero red zone targets). Gadsden is just a middling streaming option at tight end this week with a wide range of outcomes. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the 13th-highest yards per target and ranked 18th in fantasy points per game against tight ends.
|
|
14.
Hunter Henry
NE (at BAL)
Hunter Henry is the TE16 in fantasy points per game with four TE1 weekly finishes this season. Among tight ends, he ranks third in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets. Henry has a 16.8% target share with 44.9 receiving yards per game, 1.70 yards per route run, and a 19.2% first-read share. Sit Henry this week. Since Week 9, Baltimore has allowed the fewest yards per target and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
|
|
15.
Juwan Johnson
NO (vs . NYJ)
Since Week 9, Juwan Johnson has been the TE13 in fantasy points per game with a 16.4% target share, 46 receiving yards per game, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 19% first-read share. In those six games, Johnson has had three red zone targets, two touchdowns, and one deep target. Johnson is a borderline TE1 again this week. Since Week 10, New York has ranked 16th in receiving yards per game and allowed the 12th-highest yards per target to tight ends.
|
|
16.
Mark Andrews
BAL (vs . NE)
Mark Andrews has been maddening this season. Last week, he had another dud game in a great spot. Andrews has only four TE1 weekly finishes this season and has surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game only once this season. Andrews has a 15.9% target share with 25.6 receiving yards per game, 1.28 yards per route run, and a 20.8% first-read share. He has 13 red zone targets and only two deep targets. Andrews looks like he's headed for another down game this week. Since Week 9, New England has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards and the seventh-fewest yards per target to tight ends.
|
|
17.
Dalton Kincaid
BUF (at CLE)
Dalton Kincaid can't seem to stay out of the trainer's room this season. He opened this week with a DNP (knee). His knees and hamstrings have been a problem all season. I'll update his outlook on Friday, but I won't be surprised if he misses Week 16.
|
|
18.
Theo Johnson
NYG (vs . MIN)
Since Week 4, Theo Johnson has been the TE15 in fantasy points per game with four TE1 outings in weekly scoring. In Jaxson Dart's starts, Johnson has had a 19.3% target share with 40.7 receiving yards per game, 1.48 yards per route run, and a 22.8% first-read share. In those nine games, Johnson has had five touchdowns, seven red zone targets, and four deep targets. Johnson is a low-end streaming tight end option this week. Since Week 10, Minnesota has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-fewest yards per target to tight ends.
|
|
19.
Brenton Strange
JAC (at DEN)
Since Week 12, Brenton Strange has had two TE1 weekly finishes (TE4, TE7). In his last four games, Strange has had a 15% target share, 47.8 receiving yards per game, 2.08 yards per route run, and a 14.5% first-read share with five red zone targets and four deep targets. Strange should produce as a TE1 again this week, and he could lead the Jags' passing attack. Since Week 9, Denver has allowed the third-most receiving yards and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
|
|
20.
Jake Ferguson
DAL (vs . LAC)
|
|
21.
Isaiah Likely
BAL (vs . NE)
|
|
22.
AJ Barner
SEA (vs . LAR)
AJ Barner is the TE23 in fantasy points per game with a 64.8% route share, a 13.5% target share, 29.5 receiving yards per game, 1.51 yards per route run, and an 11.2% first-read share. Barner is second on the team with ten red zone targets while also drawing two deep targets. Barner isn't on the streaming radar this week. Since Week 11, the Rams have limited tight ends to the second-fewest yards per target and the third-fewest fantasy points per game.
|
|
23.
Mike Gesicki
CIN (at MIA)
|
|
24.
T.J. Hockenson
MIN (at NYG)
Last week was T.J. Hockenson's first TE1 weekly finish of the season with JJ McCarthy under center (TE12). In those eight games, Hockenson has had a 14.6% target share with 22.8 receiving yards per game, 1.03 yards per route run, and a 13.6% first-read share. In those eight games, Hockenson has had only three red zone targets and one deep target. Hockenson is on the streaming radar again this week. Since Week 10, the Giants have faced the fewest tight end targets in the NFL, so it's not surprising that they have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. The interesting fact is that, also during that span, they have allowed the second-most yards per target to tight ends. Hockenson could have a surprising game this week and log another low-end TE1 finish.
|
|
25.
Dawson Knox
BUF (at CLE)
|
|
26.
Pat Freiermuth
PIT (at DET)
|
|
27.
Evan Engram
DEN (vs . JAC)
|
|
28.
Gunnar Helm
TEN (vs . KC)
|
|
29.
Chig Okonkwo
TEN (vs . KC)
|
|
30.
Cole Kmet
CHI (vs . GB)
|
|
31.
Jonnu Smith
PIT (at DET)
|
|
32.
Luke Musgrave
GB (at CHI)
|
|
33.
Darnell Washington
PIT (at DET)
|
|
34.
Greg Dulcich
MIA (vs . CIN)
|
|
35.
Ja'Tavion Sanders
CAR (vs . TB)
|
|
36.
Ben Sinnott
WAS (vs . PHI)
|
|
37.
Terrance Ferguson
LAR (at SEA)
|
|
38.
Davis Allen
LAR (at SEA)
|
|
39.
Taysom Hill
NO (vs . NYJ)
|
|
40.
Cade Otton
TB (at CAR)
|
|
41.
Jeremy Ruckert
NYJ (at NO)
|
|
42.
John Bates
WAS (vs . PHI)
|
|
43.
John FitzPatrick
GB (at CHI)
|
|
44.
Noah Gray
KC (at TEN)
|
|
45.
Tommy Tremble
CAR (vs . TB)
|
|
46.
Tanner Hudson
CIN (at MIA)
|
|
47.
Adam Trautman
DEN (vs . JAC)
|
|
48.
Michael Mayer
LV (at HOU)
|
|
49.
Elijah Higgins
ARI (vs . ATL)
|
|
50.
Shane Zylstra
DET (vs . PIT)
|
|
51.
Cade Stover
HOU (vs . LV)
|
|
52.
Noah Fant
CIN (at MIA)
|
|
53.
Austin Hooper
NE (at BAL)
|
|
54.
Foster Moreau
NO (vs . NYJ)
|
|
55.
Jackson Hawes
BUF (at CLE)
|
|
56.
Josh Oliver
MIN (at NYG)
|
|
57.
Anthony Firkser
DET (vs . PIT)
|
|
58.
Daniel Bellinger
NYG (vs . MIN)
|
|
59.
Drew Sample
CIN (at MIA)
|
|
60.
Grant Calcaterra
PHI (at WAS)
|
|
61.
Quintin Morris
JAC (at DEN)
|
|
62.
Mitchell Evans
CAR (vs . TB)
|
|
63.
Charlie Woerner
ATL (at ARI)
|
|
64.
Luke Schoonmaker
DAL (vs . LAC)
|
|
65.
Brevyn Spann-Ford
DAL (vs . LAC)
|
|
66.
Charlie Kolar
BAL (vs . NE)
|
|
67.
Stone Smartt
NYJ (at NO)
|
|
68.
Julian Hill
MIA (vs . CIN)
|
|
69.
Will Dissly
LAC (at DAL)
|
|
70.
Eric Saubert
SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
71.
Devin Culp
TB (at CAR)
|
|
72.
Blake Whiteheart
CLE (vs . BUF)
|
|
73.
Jack Stoll
NO (vs . NYJ)
|
|
74.
Mo Alie-Cox
IND (vs . SF)
|
|
75.
Payne Durham
TB (at CAR)
|
|
76.
Connor Heyward
PIT (at DET)
|
|
77.
Nate Adkins
DEN (vs . JAC)
|
|
78.
David Njoku
CLE (vs . BUF)
|
|
79.
Pharaoh Brown
ARI (vs . ATL)
|
|
80.
Luke Farrell
SF (at IND)
|
|
81.
Jelani Woods
NYJ (at NO)
|
|
82.
Drew Ogletree
IND (vs . SF)
|
|
83.
Josiah Deguara
ARI (vs . ATL)
|
|
84.
Durham Smythe
CHI (vs . GB)
|
|
85.
Jake Tonges
SF (at IND)
|
|
86.
Kylen Granson
PHI (at WAS)
|
|
87.
Hunter Long
JAC (at DEN)
|
|
88.
Ben Sims
MIN (at NYG)
|
|
89.
Brenden Bates
CLE (vs . BUF)
|
|
90.
Johnny Mundt
JAC (at DEN)
|
|
91.
Josh Whyle
GB (at CHI)
|
|
92.
Ian Thomas
LV (at HOU)
|
|
93.
Tyler Conklin
LAC (at DAL)
|
|
94.
David Martin-Robinson
TEN (vs . KC)
|
|
95.
Harrison Bryant
HOU (vs . LV)
|
|
96.
Teagan Quitoriano
ATL (at ARI)
|
|
97.
Robert Tonyan
KC (at TEN)
|
|
98.
Colson Yankoff
WAS (vs . PHI)
|
|
99.
Nick Kallerup
SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
100.
McCallan Castles
GB (at CHI)
|
|
101.
Cameron Latu
PHI (at WAS)
|
|
102.
Jared Wiley
KC (at TEN)
|
|
103.
Giovanni Ricci
DET (vs . PIT)
|
|
104.
Nick Vannett
LAR (at SEA)
|
|
105.
Andrew Beck
NYJ (at NO)
|
|
106.
Brady Russell
SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
107.
Chris Manhertz
NYG (vs . MIN)
|
|
108.
Jack Westover
NE (at BAL)
|
|
109.
E.J. Jenkins
PHI (at WAS)
|
|
110.
Hayden Rucci
MIA (vs . CIN)
|
|
111.
Robbie Ouzts
SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
112.
Cam Grandy
CIN (at MIA)
|