Fantasy Football Player Notes
Week 16 PPR Rankings
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1.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET (vs . PIT)
Playing through an ankle injury he suffered on Thanksgiving, ARSB has 19 catches, 256 yards and two scores over his last two games. Emphasized by his 164 yards and two scores last week, ARSB is locked in as a fantasy difference maker at the position. This week, he faces the Steelers, who are allowing the ninth most fantasy points to opposing wideouts on the season. Last week, the Steelers shut down Jaylen Waddle, holding him to two catches for 26 yards. ARSB is a far superior player, and the Lions are a better offense, but it's not the best matchup this week against a Steelers team that will want to control the game and lean on their defense. That said, ARSB is a star and remains a top-end WR option.
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2.
Puka Nacua
LAR (at SEA)
Who needs touchdowns when you are getting 11 targets and over 160 yards in each of the last two games? With his only game below 10 fantasy points being the game he didn't finish, Puka is one of the rare elite receivers who has a locked-in floor with huge upside. Coming off weeks of WR1 and WR2 finishes, fantasy managers should feel great going into the playoffs. Having said that, Puka left late last week with an injury. Unfortunately, the Rams have a short week before taking on the Seahawks on Thursday Night. If Puka plays, he is a locked-in WR1 even in a tough matchup. However, managers should have a contingency plan in case he is ruled out.
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3.
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN (at MIA)
The Bengals were shut out last week, but Ja'Marr Chase still did Ja'Marr Chase things. Finishing with 10 receptions on 16 targets for 132 yards is yet another great performance for the star wideout. To make things even better, Chase has the Dolphins and Cardinals coming up over the next two weeks. Although the Dolphins have been league average against the receiver position, they lack the individual talent to stop Chase. With Tee Higgins potentially missing another game with a concussion, Chase could go nuclear to close out this fantasy season.
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4.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA (vs . LAR)
For the ninth time this season, JSN cracked 100 yards in a game. In fact, he has 12 games with more than 90 yards. Wild. In what has been one of the best receiver seasons of the decade, JSn continues to find ways to be a league winner. This week, the Seahawks have a very important game against the Rams on Thursday Night. With the Rams potentially missing both Davante Adams and Puka Nacua, it will be an interesting defensive battle. On the season, the Rams are allowing the 10th most fantasy points to opposing wideouts. They'll likely have a plan to try and slow down JSN, but the last time they met, he still had nine catches for 105 yards.
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5.
CeeDee Lamb
DAL (vs . LAC)
Back from his concussion in Week 14, Lamb casually put up his third straight 110+ yard performance. With at least six receptions in each of his last three games, Lamb is one of the steadiest receivers heading into the fantasy playoffs. Unfortunately, the Cowboys take on a Chargers' team that has been the best defense against opposing wide receivers all season. Averaging the fewest fantasy points per game at the position, even the high-flying Cowboys may have trouble moving the ball through the air. Either way, coming off a tough loss to the Vikings, the Cowboys' defense will force Dak Prescott to throw to keep them in the game. As a result, he may have a lower ceiling than usual, but Lamb is still a fantasy stalwart this week.
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6.
Nico Collins
HOU (vs . LV)
Despite being held to three catches, Collins came through for fantasy managers. On the opening drive, he took a 51-yard reception to the house, and later scored in garbage time to finish with 85 yards and two scores on the day. The Texans have been rolling, and with their elite defense, as long as Stroud continues to play turnover-free ball, they could make a run. On offense, they rely heavily on Collins and some semblance of running game. With three straght weeks finising as the WR14 or better, Collins now faces an abysmal Raiders secondary. The only concern is that the Texans' defense will swarm the Raiders' offense. In fact, the Texans' defense could probably win this game without their offense taking a single snap. As a result, there is a world where targets are at a premium once again. However, if they need to move the chains, Collins will be the g- to target.
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7.
Chris Olave
NO (vs . NYJ)
Who would've thought that Tyler Shough and Chris Olave would be the only two bright spots for the Saints this season? Well, that and Brandon Staley coaching a great defense. Sitting as the WR8 on the season, Olave has been nothing but consistent all season. With the fourth most targets and fifth most receptions, Olave has volumed his way to being the WR8 on the season. This week, they face the Jets. The Jets are not the same without Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, allowing five passing touchdowns to Trevor Lawrence last week. As the best option on their offense, Olave should find a way to at least 10 fantasy points, with a great chance at finding the endzone for the second consecutive week.
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8.
A.J. Brown
PHI (at WAS)
He may have lost his streak of 100-yard games, but his 27-yard touchdown saved fantasy managers last week. Despite only having two targets and two receptions, the star wideout continued his streak of decent fantasy finishes. Just in time for the fantasy playoffs, Brown has arguably the best matchup for receivers in Week 15. Although the Commanders are only allowing the seventh most fantasy points to opposing wideouts, we have seen them be lit up by multiple weapons. In his two games against the Commanders last year, Brown combined for 23 targets, 13 receptions, 162 yards, and a score. With all the weapons on the Eagles, it's hard to know who is going to get home, but Brown has a great chance for a good game in Week 15.
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9.
Jameson Williams
DET (vs . PIT)
There has been a true chicken-or-egg controversy with Jamo's increased production. With Dan Campbell calling plays and Sam Laporta being out for the season, it's hard to know which has led to Jamo's increased fantasy production. Thankfully, it doesn't matter the reasoning; all that matters is that he has been great over the last few weeks. With seven receptions and over 100 yards in each of his last three games, the boom or bust receiver has been impressively consistent. In fact, if you remove his two zero-point outings, he has seven straight weeks as a top 15 receiver. Ofcourse, the two zeros came out of nowhere, and you never know if it will happen again. However, they play the Steelers, who allow the ninth most fantasy points to receivers over the last six weeks. Continue to stay in the flames with Jamo, and just hope he doesn't have another goose-egg down the stretch.
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10.
George Pickens
DAL (vs . LAC)
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11.
Mike Evans
TB (at CAR)
The Hall of Fame receiver is back and came out swinging against the Falcons. Even though he played limited snaps, his six receptions for 132 yards were more than double the yards of the next receiver. Even in a loss, it was clear that Baker Mayfield missed his big-bodied target down the field. This week, they have their first of two huge games against the Panthers to close out the season. The Panthers have been trying to take over the division, but continue to get in their own way. That said, they have been solid against opposing wideouts all season, averaging the 11th fewest fantasy points to the position, and the ninth fewest receiver points in the red zone. Seeing what Evans did in his return, he is once again a low-end WR1, even in a difficult matchup.
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12.
DK Metcalf
PIT (at DET)
DK Metcalf is the WR25 in fantasy points per game with a 21.5% target share, 57.7 receiving yards per game, 2.07 yards per route run, and a 27.9% first-read share. Metcalf has 13 red zone targets and 16 deep targets this season. He has had at least 14.4 PPR points in three of his last four games. Metcalf is a strong WR2 this week. Since Week 10, Detroit has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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13.
Drake London
ATL (at ARI)
Drake London opened this week with a limited practice (knee). I'll update his outlook on Friday, but I expect him to sit out again this week and possibly return next week. Atlanta is out of playoff contention and has zero reason to rush him back.
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14.
Jauan Jennings
SF (at IND)
Since Week 9, Jauan Jennings has been the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 19.9% target share, 47.2 receiving yards per game, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 27.9% first-read share. In those six games, Jennings has had a ton of high cholesterol usage with nine red zone targets and four deep targets that have helped to lead to six touchdowns. Jennings should easily flirt with WR2 production again this week. Since Week 10, Indy has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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15.
Courtland Sutton
DEN (vs . JAC)
Courtland Sutton is the WR16 in fantasy points per game. After a down stretch of games, he has rebounded nicely in recent weeks. Since Week 11, Sutton has had a 20.6% target share, 74 receiving yards per game, 2.19 yards per route run, and a 26.5% first-read share. In those four games, he has had six red zone targets and six deep targets. This week, he faces a Jacksonville pass defense that, since Week 11, has had the sixth-highest two-high rate (57.3%). Since Week 11, against two high, Sutton has seen a 20.5% target share and 22.2% first-read share, but his yards per route run has dipped to 1.48. Sutton might take an efficiency hit this week, but he'll still lead the Denver passing attack against a Jacksonville pass defense that since Week 10 has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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16.
Zay Flowers
BAL (vs . NE)
Zay Flowers had to deal with DJ Turner's shadow coverage in his two recent meetings with the Bengals, and he'll likely have to deal with shadow coverage again this week. Except in Week 16, Christian Gonzalez will follow him. Gonzalez has shadowed four times this season, following Emeka Egbuka, Darius Slayton, Tee Higgins, and Jerry Jeudy on 61.3-78% of their routes. None of those wide receivers scored a touchdown or surpassed 60 receiving yards, with Gonzalez following them. Temper your expectations for Flowers this week, as Gonzalez could easily be in his back pocket for 60-70% of his routes. Overall, Flowers is the WR23 in fantasy points per game with a 27.2% target share with 68.5 receiving yards per game, 2.40 yards per route run, and a 33.2% first-read share. Flowers has only eight red zone targets this season, but he has amassed 17 deep targets. Flowers will still be started in most leagues and for most fantasy teams, but I'm not expecting a boom week.
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17.
Tetairoa McMillan
CAR (vs . TB)
Tetairoa McMillan is the WR22 in fantasy points per game with a 23.1% target share, 60.8 receiving yards per game, 1.96 yards per route run, and a 27.4% first-read share. McMillan leads the team with 14 red zone targets and 16 deep targets. Bryce Young's weekly volatility has bled over to McMillan all year. McMillan has three top 13 wide receiver weekly finishes as well as four games outside the top 40 wide receivers for the week. McMillan is more likely to boom this week. Since Week 10, the Bucs have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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18.
Michael Wilson
ARI (vs . ATL)
Despite being outmatched against the Texans' defense, Michael Wilson managed to come through with 54 yards and a score. Considering he had 11 targets, fantasy managers may have expected more, but this Texans defense is incredible. Thankfully, Wilson has a better matchup against the Falcons in Week 15. Last week, Buccaneers' receivers combined for 234 yards against the Falcons. On the season, they are allowing the seventh most fantasy points to the receiver position. It's going to be fascinating to see Wilson's usage once Marvin Harrison Jr. returns, but until then, Wilson remains a low-end WR1.
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19.
Wan'Dale Robinson
NYG (vs . MIN)
Wan'Dale Robinson is quietly having a monstrous season as the WR15 in fantasy points per game on pace for 95 receptions and 1,071 receiving yards. Since Week 4, in Jaxson Dart's starts, Robinson has had a 25.9% target share with 51.9 receiving yards per game, 1.49 yards per route run, and a 28.3% first-read share. In those nine games, Robinson has had seven red zone targets and eight deep targets. Robinson should lead the way for the Giants' passing attack again this week, but it will be a tough matchup. Since Week 10, Minnesota has allowed the tenth-fewest PPR points per target and the tenth-lowest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.
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20.
DeVonta Smith
PHI (at WAS)
DeVonta Smith is the WR29 in fantasy points per game with a 24% target share, a 34.9% air-yard share, 2.07 yards per route run, and a 30% first-read share. Smith is third on the team with eight red zone targets and tied with AJ Brown for the team lead in deep targets. Smith has had a slump only one game with double-digit PPR points since Week 11. During that span, he has had only two red zone targets and exceeded 55 receiving yards only once. This week's matchup offers a nice bounce-back opportunity. Since Week 10, Washington has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target and the third-highest rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers.
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21.
Justin Jefferson
MIN (at NYG)
Last week, Justin Jefferson should have had two touchdowns, which would have quieted the narrative that he and JJ McCarthy's connection is worrisome at best. One score was called back by penalty, and the other sailed through Jefferson's hands. In the eight games Jefferson has played with McCarthy this season, he has two top 24 finishes in weekly scoring with a 29.1% target share, 43.9 receiving yards per game, 1.55 yards per route run, and a 34.7% first-read share. In those games, Jefferson has also had 11 red zone targets and ten deep targets. I'm still rolling out Jefferson there this week in a great spot. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
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22.
Jakobi Meyers
JAC (at DEN)
Patrick Surtain will shadow Jakobi Meyers or Brian Thomas Jr. this week. Who will it be? That's a great question. Considering how integral Meyers has been to the Jags' passing attack since his arrival, I do lean that it'll be Meyers, but I could easily be wrong about that. Since Week 11, Meyers has been the WR19 in fantasy points per game with a 23.9% target share, 62.8 receiving yards per game, 2.26 yards per route run, and a 29.6% first-read share. In those five games, Meyers has had six red zone targets and one deep target. Surtain has shadowed six times this season, following A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Quentin Johnston, Terry McLaurin, Christian Watson, and Ja'Marr Chase on 64.3-94.7% of their routes. Only McLaurin scored a touchdown with Surtain in tow, and none of those receivers surpassed 61 receiving yards in his coverage. Fade Meyers this week.
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23.
Terry McLaurin
WAS (vs . PHI)
Since his Week 13 return, Terry McLaurin has had two top 20 weekly finishes (WR8, WR19) while drawing a 23.7% target share with 68.7 receiving yards per game, 2.71 yards per route run, and a 28.8% first-read share. In those three games, McLaurin has had five red zone targets and four deep targets. The usage has been fantastic. He'll have a tough test this week that'll lower his ceiling and floor. Since Week 10, Philly has ranked 16th in receiving yards per game against perimeter wide receivers while surrendering the fifth-fewest PPR points per target to the position.
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24.
Jaylen Waddle
MIA (vs . CIN)
Since Week 10, the Dolphins have moved to being a run-first team, and it has hurt Waddle as the WR28 in fantasy points per game since then. Since Week 10, his per-route numbers and market share have remained awesome, but the decrease in passing volume has lowered his weekly ceiling and floor. Across his last five games, he has had a 27.4% target share with 50.4 receiving yards per game, 2.38 yards per route run, and a 35.6% first-read share. That market share has amounted to only 6.2 targets per game. In that span, he has had only two red zone targets and seven deep targets. Add in a possible shadow from DJ Turner this week, and the uncertainty of Quinn Ewers under center and Waddle becomes a shaky player to start. DJ Turner has followed DK Metcalf (twice), Justin Jefferson, Romeo Doubs, Zay Flowers (twice), and Gabe Davis on 62.9-90.3% of their routes. None of those receivers surpassed 50 receiving yards in his coverage, and only Flowers scored a touchdown (in their second meeting).
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25.
Tee Higgins
CIN (at MIA)
Tee Higgins is likely back this week. Joe Burrow will be welcoming Higgins back with open arms after his monster Week 14 performance as the WR4 in fantasy. Overall, Higgins is the WR14 in fantasy points per game with a 17.7% target share, a 32.4% air-yard share, 55.6 receiving yards per game, 1.67 yards per route run, and a 23.8% first-read share. Higgins is second on the team in red zone targets (ten) and deep targets (18). Higgins is a solid WR2 this week against a Miami secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the 15th-most PPR points per target while ranking 16th in fantasy points per game against perimeter wide receivers.
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26.
DJ Moore
CHI (vs . GB)
In the two games that DJ Moore has played this year without Rome Odunze, he had a 12.7% target share, 32.5 receiving yards per game, 1.16 yards per route run, and a 17.6% first-read share. Moore had two red zone targets and three deep targets (two touchdowns). Moore finished as the WR97 and WR7 for those two games. Moore should see a bump in this usage this week as Luther Burden is also sidelined. Moore is a strong WR2/3 this week. The Packers' pass defense has taken a step back recently, and since Week 10, they have allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target and the tenth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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27.
Ladd McConkey
LAC (at DAL)
Ladd McConkey might be the WR16 in fantasy points per game, but his fantasy stock has been in freefall with the Chargers' passing attack tanking over the last few games. Since Week 9, McConkey has had only two top 36 weekly finishes and one game in which he surpassed 60 receiving yards. Since Week 9, he has had a 17.7% target share with 41.2 receiving yards per game with 1.47 yards per route run and a 13.9% first-read share. In those six games, he has had four red zone targets and five deep targets. McConkey has become a risky flex play with a good matchup this week. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
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28.
Brian Thomas Jr.
JAC (at DEN)
Since Week 13, Brian Thomas Jr. has had two top 24 wide receiver weekly finishes (WR23, WR15) while seeing a 17.8% target share with 60.3 receiving yards, 2.21 yards per route run, and a 26.2% first-read share. During this three-game stretch, he has had a 21.0 aDOT, and 50% of his targets have been downfield. This isn't the matchup to consider flexing Brian Thomas Jr. Since Week 9, Denver has allowed the eighth-lowest deep ball completion rate and the fourth-lowest passer rating to downfield passing. If that doesn't scare you, then I'll also add that since Week 10, Denver has allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
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29.
Jayden Reed
GB (at CHI)
Last week, Jayden Reed's route share increased to 67.4%. I think he should at least see this type of workload this week, but it could continue to increase this week, and it wouldn't shock me at all. Since Week 14, Reed has had a 21% target per route run rate with 43 receiving yards per game, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 19.4% first-read share. In those two games, Reed has one red zone target and zero deep targets. Reed is a strong flex this week that could produce WR2/3 numbers. Since Week 10, Chicago has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the ninth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.
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30.
Christian Watson
GB (at CHI)
Christian Watson opened the week with a DNP before logging limited practices on Thursday and Friday. Watson has been listed as questionable (chest/shoulder). He didn't wear a non-contact jersey in practice this week, so that's encouraging for his outlook this week but his injury and playing time are a definite mystery. I could see Watson playing a full time role this week or seeing a 50-60% route share. Neither would shock me. It makes Watson a volatile proposition for fantasy football. With his speed and big play potential, he could play limited snaps and still pay off for fantasy. Since Week 11, Watson has been the WR15 in fantasy points per game with a 21.7% target share with 58.6 receiving yards per game, 2.71 yards per route run, and a 30.9% first-read share. He has had three red zone targets and ten deep targets in those five games. Since Week 13, Chicago has had the tenth-highest rate of man coverage (32.4%) and the 11th-highest rate of two high (52.9%). Since Week 11, against man coverage, Watson had led the team with a 26.2% target share, 2.46 yards per route run, and a 31.6% first-read share. Since Week 11, against two high, Watson had led the team with an 18.3% target share, 2.41 yards per route run, and a 27.8% first-read share. Watson should lead the way for the Packers' passing attack this week if he's healthy enough to do so. Since Week 10, Chicago has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. It's a tough matchup for Watson, but he has the talent to overcome it.
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31.
Xavier Worthy
KC (at TEN)
With Rashee Rice out, I expect Xavier Worthy to step back into the "Rashee Rice role" this week, which had fantasy gamers so excited to draft him this summer. Last year, in Weeks 13-17, Worthy was the WR21 in fantasy points per game with a 21.3% target share, 57 receiving yards per game, 1.68 yards per route run, a 24.8% first-read share, and a 25.6% designed target rate. If Worthy gets this role back this week, he should have a strong showing. Since Week 10, Tennessee has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the sixth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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32.
Stefon Diggs
NE (at BAL)
Stefon Diggs has seen his route share dip at various points in the season. I bring it up because it happened again last week. Diggs had a 58.6% route share, a 13% target share, and a 17.6% first-read share. Since Week 8, Diggs has had only two top 24 weekly finishes among wide receivers while having a 65.7% route share, a 17.9% target share, 39.3 receiving yards per game, 1.67 yards per route run, and an 18.8% first-read share. Those are WR3 usage numbers. In those seven games, Diggs has had six red zone targets and five deep targets. I don't see his usage changing this week, so just understand what you're signing up for if you're flexing him this week. Since Week 10, Baltimore has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 17th in fantasy points per game.
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33.
Chris Godwin Jr.
TB (at CAR)
Chris Godwin has been a WR2/3 since Week 13 with weekly finishes as the WR33, WR27, and WR24. In those three games, he has had a 17.4% target share, 51 receiving yards per game, 1.80 yards per route run, three red zone targets, one deep target, and a 21.1% first-read share. Last week, in the first game with Egbuka, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin all in the lineup, Godwin had an 11.8% target share (third on the team) with 20 receiving yards, a score, one red zone target and a 19% first-read share. Godwin remains a solid WR2/3 against a secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per target to slot receivers while also ranking 15th in passer rating when targeted.
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34.
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WAS (vs . PHI)
Deebo Samuel is the WR24 in fantasy points per game, seeing seven deep targets and 12 red zone targets this season. Samuel has a 23.3% target share with 46.5 receiving yards per game, 1.72 yards per route run, and a 28.1% first-read share. Touchdowns have helped Samuel this season when he hasn't had a 100-yard receiving day in 2025 and has surpassed 65 receiving yards in a game once since Week 5. Samuel will need a touchdown to pay off again this week in fantasy. Philly has shut down slot receivers since Week 10, allowing the fewest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards per game to the position.
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35.
Emeka Egbuka
TB (at CAR)
Emeka Egbuka is the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 25.1% target share, 62.1 receiving yards per game, 1.98 yards per route run, and a 31% first-read share. Egbuka leads the team with 13 red zone targets and 19 deep targets. Last week, in the first game with Egbuka, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin all in the lineup, Egbuka ranked second on the team with a 20.6% target share and 23.8% first-read share while finishing with two deep targets and 64 receiving yards as the WR38 for the week. Egbuka is a solid WR2 this week against a Carolina secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
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36.
Adonai Mitchell
NYJ (at NO)
Since Week 12, Mitchell has had two top 20 weekly finishes at wide receiver in weekly scoring, including last week's game with Brady Cook (WR14). Since Week 12, Mitchell has had a 26.6% target share with 56.5 receiving yards per game, 1.73 yards per route run, and a 30% first-read share. In those four games, Mitchell has had six red zone targets and nine deep targets. Mitchell is a low-end volume-based flex play with a tough matchup. Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the 14th-fewest PPR points per target and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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37.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
ARI (vs . ATL)
The last time that we saw Marvin Harrison Jr. on the field with the "new-look" version of Michael Wilson in the first three quarters (before he sustained a heel injury), he had a 25.9% target share, 2.88 yards per route run, and a 38.9% first-read share. Harrison Jr. may step right back in as Trey McBride's running mate and as the clear 1B in the passing attack. It's also possible that he takes a backseat to Wilson. Harrison Jr. stated that his heel is "good enough to go," and his head coach stated that he is "getting his wind back a little bit." It's possible that Harrison Jr. isn't an 80-90% route share player this week or 100% effective. He has a wide range of outcomes this week, but he's absolutely flex-worthy considering the matchup this week. Since Week 10, Atlanta has allowed the third-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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38.
Khalil Shakir
BUF (at CLE)
Khalil Shakir is the WR41 in fantasy points per game with top 36 weekly finishes in three of his last four games (WR13, WR32, WR33). Shakir has a 19.4% target share with 46.4 receiving yards per game, 1.90 yards per route run, and a 22.7% first-read share. Shakir has 11 red zone targets and six deep targets this season. Shakir is a low-ceiling flex play again this week with a tough matchup. Since Week 10, Cleveland has allowed the 11th-fewest PPR points per target and the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
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39.
Keenan Allen
LAC (at DAL)
Keenan Allen is the WR35 in fantasy points per game, but he hasn't finished inside the top-36 in weekly scoring among wide receivers since Week 7. That was also the last time that Allen surpassed 55 receiving yards in a game. Since Week 8, Allen has had an 18% target share with 35 receiving yards per game, 1.58 yards per route run, and a 23.1% first-read share. In those seven games, he has had only two red zone targets and four deep targets. Maybe the plus matchup this week against Dallas helps to elevate Allen's stat line, but this Chargers offense has also skewed run-heavy to protect Justin Herbert, and I don't see that changing this week. Allen is just another middling flex play this week. Since Week 10, Dallas has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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40.
Michael Pittman Jr.
IND (vs . SF)
Michael Pittman is the WR17 in fantasy points per game with a 21.6% target share, 51.8 receiving yards per game, 1.74 yards per route run, and a 25.1% first-read share. Pittman is third on the team in red zone targets (ten) and second in deep targets with eight. Last week, Pittman was the WR64 in fantasy with an 18.5% target share, a 7.8 aDOT, 26 receiving yards, and a 21.7% first-read share. With Philip Rivers playing a game manager role, Pittman's weekly floor and ceiling have been dramatically lowered. He's a middling flex play this week against a secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
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41.
Jordan Addison
MIN (at NYG)
In Jordan Addison's six games with JJ McCarthy under center, he has had two top 36 weekly finishes (WR31, WR29) with a 16.4% target share, 38.5 receiving yards per game, 1.43 yards per route run, and a 21.9% first-read share. In that sample, Addison has had two red zone targets and nine deep targets. He's a decent flex play again this week with a nice matchup. Since Week 10, New York has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards per game and the 12th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
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42.
Rashid Shaheed
SEA (vs . LAR)
Over the last two weeks, Shaheed has finished as the WR14 and WR28 in weekly scoring with an 18.2% target share, 70.5 receiving yards per game, 2.71 yards per route run, and a 23.8% first-read share (second on the team). During these two weeks, Shaheed has had one red zone target and three deep targets. Shaheed is a surprisingly strong flex this week against a secondary that, since Week 10, has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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43.
Jalen Coker
CAR (vs . TB)
Since Week 10, Coker has had three top 24 weekly scoring finishes among wide receivers (WR24, WR15, WR24). Since Week 10, Coker has had a 14% target share with 47.8 receiving yards per game, 1.85 yards per route run, and a 21.3% first-read share. In those five games, he has only one red zone target and three deep targets. Coker is a solid flex play that could pay off in a big way this week if Bryce Young has another boom game. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per target and the second-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
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44.
Jayden Higgins
HOU (vs . LV)
Since Week 10, Higgins has four top 36 weekly finishes among wide receivers in weekly scoring (WR22, WR35, WR23, WR26). Since Week 10, he has had a 16.1% target share with 39.7 receiving yards, 1.79 yards per route run, and a 19.1% first-read share. In those six games, Higgins has had four red zone targets and six deep targets. Higgins is a strong flex play again this week. Since Week 10, the Raiders have allowed the 11th-most PPR points per target and the 12th-highest passer rating when targeted to perimeter wide receivers.
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45.
Romeo Doubs
GB (at CHI)
Romeo Doubs' role in the offense could be dramatically altered if Christian Watson isn't able to play this week. I'll update Doubs' outlook for Week 16 on Friday when we hopefully know more about Watson's outlook for Week 16.
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46.
Darius Slayton
NYG (vs . MIN)
Since Week 4, with Jaxson Dart under center, Slayton has had an 18.1% target share with 49.4 receiving yards per game, 1.91 yards per route run, and a 23.2% first-read share. In those seven games, Slayton has had only one red zone target, but he has also seen 12 deep targets (15.3 aDOT). This isn't the week to look to flex Slayton with his downfield role. Minnesota's pass defense has improved dramatically against deep passing and with defending perimeter wide receivers. Since Week 9, Minnesota has allowed the 11th-lowest deep completion rate and the fourth-fewest deep passing yards per game. Since Week 10, the Vikings have also given up the 11th-fewest PPR points per target and the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Slayton this week.
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47.
Troy Franklin
DEN (vs . JAC)
Sit Troy Franklin this week. His route share rebounded last week with a 58.3 route share, but the coverage matchup isn't in his favor this week. This week, he faces a Jacksonville pass defense that, since Week 11, has had the sixth-highest two-high rate (57.3%). Since Week 11, against two high, Franklin has had a 10.2% target share, 1.48 yards per route run, and a 13.3% first-read share. The Jags have allowed substantial production to perimeter wide receivers, so that could help Franklin this week. He is still a thin play when looking at the coverage matchup and his recent usage. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game and eighth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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48.
Mack Hollins
NE (at BAL)
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49.
John Metchie III
NYJ (at NO)
Since Week 12, John Metchie had one top 36 weekly wide receiver finish (WR11) while seeing a 21.9% target share and 27.8% first-read share while producing 35.8 receiving yards per game and 1.09 yards per route run. In those four games, Metchie has had four red zone targets and zero deep targets. Metchie is best left on the bench this week. Since Week 10, New Orleans has allowed the 14th-fewest PPR points per target and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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50.
Kayshon Boutte
NE (at BAL)
This isn't the week to consider flexing Kayshon Boutte. This season, Boutte has been the field stretcher for New England with his 16.7 aDOT and 11 deep targets (28.9% of his target volume). Since Week 9, Baltimore has allowed the 12th-lowest deep ball completion rate and the seventh-lowest passer rating to downfield targets. Boutte will have more spike weeks this season, but I don't think this will be one of them.
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51.
Marquise Brown
KC (at TEN)
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52.
Jerry Jeudy
CLE (vs . BUF)
Since Week 12, Jeudy has finished above WR59 in weekly scoring only once, and that was against Tennessee. During those four games, Jeudy has seen a 13% target share with 40.8 receiving yards per game, 1.34 yards per route run, and a 16.7% first-read share. During that span, he has had zero red zone targets and four deep targets. Keep Jeudy on the bench again this week. Since Week 10, Buffalo has allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
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53.
Cooper Kupp
SEA (vs . LAR)
Since Week 14, Kupp has seen his role in the Seattle passing offense take a hit as Rashid Shaheed is finally being integrated. Since Week 14, Kupp has had a 15.2% target share with 40.5 receiving yards per game, 1.42 yards per route run, and a 21.4% first-read share. Kupp has had four red zone targets and one deep target during these two games, so his touchdown equity in the offense is still strong. This isn't the matchup to consider flexing Kupp against, though. Since Week 10, the Rams have allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
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54.
Chimere Dike
TEN (vs . KC)
Since Week 12, Chimere Dike has had two top-20 wide receiver weekly scoring outings. In his last four games, Dike has had a 79.3% route share, a 17.5% target share, 23.3 receiving yards per game, 0.78 yards per route run, and a 23.8% first-read share. Across his last four games, Dike has had six red zone targets and three deep targets. Dike is a flex option best left on the bench this week. Since Week 10, Kansas City has allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to slot receivers.
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55.
Olamide Zaccheaus
CHI (vs . GB)
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56.
Darnell Mooney
ATL (at ARI)
Drake London has a chance to return this week. I'll update Darnell Mooney's outlook on Friday once we know if London will be back.
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57.
Josh Downs
IND (vs . SF)
Downs has a 60.5% route share, a 16.3% target share, 31.2 receiving yards per game, 1.47 yards per route run, and an 18.4% first-read share. Downs is second on the team in red zone targets while also chipping in six deep targets. Last week, Downs had an 18.5% target share, a 17.4% first-read share, 13 receiving yards, and a score. The touchdown saved his day as the WR39 for the week with 10.3 PPR points. Add Downs to the risky wide receiver bets in the Colts' passing offense that could pay off this week. Since Week 10, the 49ers have allowed the most PPR points per target and the 11th-highest passer rating when targeted to opposing slot receivers.
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58.
Pat Bryant
DEN (vs . JAC)
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59.
Parker Washington
JAC (at DEN)
Last week, in his return to the lineup, Parker Washington split the slot role with Tim Patrick. Washington had only a 52.8% route share, a 9.4% target share, and a 9.5% first-read share. Washington is droppable at this point. He's not worth holding on a roster with the Jags' passing offense at full strength and his role trending downward.
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60.
Alec Pierce
IND (vs . SF)
Pierce has a 17.6% target share with 65.4 receiving yards per game, 2.21 yards per route run, and a 21.4% first-read share. Pierce remains the team's field stretcher with an 18.7 aDOT, 29.8% of his targets coming downfield, and 20 deep targets. Last week, Pierce drew only one target that was 15 yards downfield. This week could bear sweeter fruit, but he is now a riskier bet with Rivers' decreased arm strength and the specialized role in the Colts' offense. Pierce will have to make due with decreased target volume and quality. He could produce as a risky flex play this week, though. Since Week 9, the 49ers have allowed the sixth-highest deep ball completion rate, the eighth-most deep passing yards per game, and the seventh-highest passer rating to downfield targets.
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61.
Tre Tucker
LV (at HOU)
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62.
Elic Ayomanor
TEN (vs . KC)
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63.
Xavier Legette
CAR (vs . TB)
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64.
Ryan Flournoy
DAL (vs . LAC)
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65.
Malik Washington
MIA (vs . CIN)
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66.
Tre Harris
LAC (at DAL)
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67.
Kendrick Bourne
SF (at IND)
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68.
Quentin Johnston
LAC (at DAL)
Quentin Johnston missed last week's game with a groin injury. He has practiced on a limited basis all week and has been listed as questionable. With the Chargers operating as a run-heavy team and Johnston's volatility factored in, I can't trust him as a flex option this week. Johnston hasn't had more than 53 receiving yards in a game since Week 4. Since Week 5, he has finished as a top 24 receiver in weekly scoring only once. Could he burn me this week against Dallas? It's possible, as Dallas has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 10. Still, it's also tough to depend on Johnston this week with his track record and in a passing offense that, since Week 14, has had the seventh-lowest neutral passing rate.
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69.
Matthew Golden
GB (at CHI)
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70.
Andrei Iosivas
CIN (at MIA)
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71.
Marvin Mims Jr.
DEN (vs . JAC)
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72.
Jack Bech
LV (at HOU)
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73.
Jalen Nailor
MIN (at NYG)
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74.
David Sills V
ATL (at ARI)
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75.
Jalen McMillan
TB (at CAR)
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76.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
KC (at TEN)
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77.
Isaac TeSlaa
DET (vs . PIT)
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78.
Dontayvion Wicks
GB (at CHI)
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79.
Christian Kirk
HOU (vs . LV)
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80.
Joshua Palmer
BUF (at CLE)
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81.
DeMario Douglas
NE (at BAL)
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82.
Rashod Bateman
BAL (vs . NE)
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83.
Mason Tipton
NO (vs . NYJ)
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84.
Isaiah Williams
NYJ (at NO)
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85.
Isaiah Hodgins
NYG (vs . MIN)
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86.
Van Jefferson
TEN (vs . KC)
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87.
Konata Mumpfield
LAR (at SEA)
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88.
Calvin Austin III
PIT (at DET)
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89.
Isaiah Bond
CLE (vs . BUF)
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90.
Demarcus Robinson
SF (at IND)
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91.
Kevin Austin Jr.
NO (vs . NYJ)
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92.
Tyler Lockett
LV (at HOU)
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93.
Tutu Atwell
LAR (at SEA)
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94.
DeAndre Hopkins
BAL (vs . NE)
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95.
KaVontae Turpin
DAL (vs . LAC)
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96.
Cedric Tillman
CLE (vs . BUF)
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97.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
DEN (vs . JAC)
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98.
Brandin Cooks
BUF (at CLE)
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99.
Xavier Hutchinson
HOU (vs . LV)
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100.
Jaylin Noel
HOU (vs . LV)
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101.
Tim Patrick
JAC (at DEN)
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102.
Jahan Dotson
PHI (at WAS)
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103.
Mitch Tinsley
CIN (at MIA)
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104.
Jordan Whittington
LAR (at SEA)
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105.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
PIT (at DET)
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106.
Jalen Brooks
ARI (vs . ATL)
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107.
Treylon Burks
WAS (vs . PHI)
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108.
Adam Thielen
PIT (at DET)
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109.
Jaylin Lane
WAS (vs . PHI)
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110.
Tyrell Shavers
BUF (at CLE)
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111.
Devin Duvernay
CHI (vs . GB)
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112.
Gage Larvadain
CLE (vs . BUF)
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113.
Kalif Raymond
DET (vs . PIT)
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114.
Jalen Royals
KC (at TEN)
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115.
Xavier Smith
LAR (at SEA)
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116.
Dylan Drummond
ATL (at ARI)
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117.
Tez Johnson
TB (at CAR)
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118.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
LAC (at DAL)
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119.
Xavier Weaver
ARI (vs . ATL)
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120.
Kyle Williams
NE (at BAL)
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121.
Devontez Walker
BAL (vs . NE)
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122.
James Proche II
TEN (vs . KC)
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123.
Malachi Corley
CLE (vs . BUF)
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124.
Cedrick Wilson Jr.
MIA (vs . CIN)
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125.
Chris Moore
WAS (vs . PHI)
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126.
Dont'e Thornton Jr.
LV (at HOU)
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127.
Arian Smith
NYJ (at NO)
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128.
Dante Pettis
NO (vs . NYJ)
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129.
Jimmy Horn Jr.
CAR (vs . TB)
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130.
Darius Cooper
PHI (at WAS)
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131.
Bo Melton
GB (at CHI)
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132.
Brycen Tremayne
CAR (vs . TB)
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133.
Jonathan Mingo
DAL (vs . LAC)
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134.
Dyami Brown
JAC (at DEN)
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135.
Jahdae Walker
CHI (vs . GB)
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136.
Mecole Hardman Jr.
BUF (at CLE)
|
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137.
Trent Sherfield Sr.
ARI (vs . ATL)
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138.
Savion Williams
GB (at CHI)
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139.
Ben Skowronek
PIT (at DET)
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140.
Nikko Remigio
KC (at TEN)
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141.
Cody White
SEA (vs . LAR)
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142.
Scotty Miller
PIT (at DET)
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143.
Dee Eskridge
MIA (vs . CIN)
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144.
Shedrick Jackson
LV (at HOU)
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145.
Gunner Olszewski
NYG (vs . MIN)
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146.
Michael Bandy
DEN (vs . JAC)
|
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147.
Tom Kennedy
DET (vs . PIT)
|
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148.
Tylan Wallace
BAL (vs . NE)
|
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149.
Theo Wease Jr.
MIA (vs . CIN)
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150.
Deven Thompkins
ATL (at ARI)
|
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151.
Casey Washington
ATL (at ARI)
|
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152.
Skyy Moore
SF (at IND)
|
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153.
LaJohntay Wester
BAL (vs . NE)
|
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154.
Maurice Alexander
CHI (vs . GB)
|
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155.
Samori Toure
NO (vs . NYJ)
|
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156.
Tyler Johnson
NYJ (at NO)
|
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157.
Jordan Watkins
SF (at IND)
|
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158.
Tai Felton
MIN (at NYG)
|
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159.
Allen Lazard
FA (BYE)
|
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160.
Velus Jones Jr.
SEA (vs . LAR)
|
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161.
Mason Kinsey
TEN (vs . KC)
|
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162.
Britain Covey
PHI (at WAS)
|
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163.
Laquon Treadwell
IND (vs . SF)
|
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164.
Ke'Shawn Williams
CIN (at MIA)
|
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165.
Austin Trammell
JAC (at DEN)
|
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166.
Kameron Johnson
TB (at CAR)
|
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167.
Lawrence Cager
WAS (vs . PHI)
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168.
Alex Bachman
LV (at HOU)
|
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169.
Chris Blair
ATL (at ARI)
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170.
Myles Price
MIN (at NYG)
|
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171.
Coleman Owen
IND (vs . SF)
|
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172.
Anthony Gould
IND (vs . SF)
|
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173.
Dalen Cambre
NYG (vs . MIN)
|
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174.
Dareke Young
SEA (vs . LAR)
|
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175.
Steven Sims Jr.
ARI (vs . ATL)
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176.
Dominic Lovett
DET (vs . PIT)
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177.
Roman Wilson
PIT (at DET)
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