Jeff Ratcliffe ranks the NFL offseason moves that are set to have the greatest fantasy impact in 2013.
Note: Ratcliffe is part of the fantasy staff at Pro Football Focus that placed 4 experts in the top 15 of our 2012 accuracy competition (90+ experts tracked). He was also honored as the most accurate IDP expert we monitored last season. For additional insight from Jeff and the rest of the PFF Staff, you can visit ProFootballFocus.com.
The frenzy of free agency may still have your head spinning, but it’s never too early to begin deciphering how these moves impact the ever-shifting fantasy landscape. As we look forward to the 2013 season, here are the top five moves so far this offseason based on fantasy impact:
1. Percy Harvin to Seattle, Greg Jennings to Minnesota.
Carroll is downright giddy that Percy Harvin is #1 on this list.
Before free agency even officially began, the Seahawks pulled off the biggest move of the offseason, getting Harvin in a blockbuster trade from the Vikings. Harvin is arguably the best player in the league, and he can legitimately do everything. This move solidifies the Seahawks as Super Bowl favorites. With solid receivers already on the roster, Harvin’s fantasy value takes a slight hit in Seattle, though it’s still fair to consider him a WR1 option. Harvin’s presence certainly boosts Russell Wilson’s fantasy stock. He’s now locked in as a QB1 with elite upside.
Harvin leaving town left a huge hole at receiver that the Vikings hope they’ve filled with Greg Jennings. It’s certainly a downgrade for Jennings, as he goes from Aaron Rodgers to Christian Ponder throwing him the ball. While Jennings is now the seventh-highest paid wide receiver in the league, he doesn’t project as a top-ten fantasy option. Provided he can stay healthy, Jennings makes for a borderline WR2 in his new digs.
2. Steven Jackson to Atlanta
The Falcons significantly upgraded their run game, grabbing the best back available in this year’s free agency pool. While Jackson is no spring chicken and he has over 2,800 career touches, there’s surprisingly still plenty of tread left on his tires. In Atlanta’s high-powered offense, Jackson has an extremely high floor and should be considered a rock solid RB1 option.
While Jackson’s fantasy value is on the up and up, Jacquizz Rodgers is trending in the opposite direction. Rodgers flashed in the playoffs, and there was some talk from Mike Smith that he’d be used in a three-down role this season. Jackson’s signing eliminates any possibility of that playing out. We can’t rule out the possibility of Rodgers having some fantasy value, though Jackson’s abilities as a pass catcher will likely keep Rodgers in a limited role.
3. Wes Welker to Denver, Danny Amendola to New England
Welker goes from one Hall of Fame quarterback to another, joining Peyton Manning in the Mile High City. New England reportedly tried to keep him, offering $10 million over two years, but Welker opted for Denver’s slightly more lucrative $12 million fully guaranteed deal. Welker was a PPR beast in New England with triple-digit receptions in five of the last six seasons, but it’s a stretch to expect him to replicate this production with the Broncos.
Peyton now has plenty of mouths to feed, as both Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas saw over 100 targets last season. Thomas is a freak of nature, and he’s going to do his thing regardless. But Decker’s value certainly takes a hit. With Manning throwing them the ball, both Decker and Welker will still be solid fantasy options, though neither has elite upside.
With Welker heading west to Denver, the Patriots inked his replacement in Amendola, who flashed a very high fantasy ceiling last season in St. Louis. In the Welker role, Amendola’s value skyrockets. He’s a younger and perhaps more dynamic version of Welker. It’s fair to project Amendola for 100-plus receptions. The one problem with Amendola has always been injuries, as he hasn’t stayed healthy for an entire season since 2010. Still, it’s tough not to like him in New England. He’s a high-floor WR2 in standard leagues and a potential WR1 in PPR formats.
4. Reggie Bush to the Lions
With the likelihood of Jahvid Best returning extremely slim, Detroit signed Bush to serve in that role for their offense. This is perhaps the best place Bush could have landed, and his fantasy value remains fully intact. The Lions envision Bush as a three-down back, so he should get ample touches, including loads of receptions in Detroit’s pass-happy offense.
With Calvin Johnson on the field, Bush will have a lot more room to operate than he had in Miami. He makes for a strong RB2 option, and has added value in PPR leagues. The same can’t be said for Mikel Leshoure, whose fantasy value goes down the tubes with Bush now in town. Leshoure will no doubt be a touchdown vulture, but he’s unlikely to get more than a handful of touches per game.
5. Mike Wallace to the Dolphins
Wallace will look to bolster the NFL’s 7th worst passing attack from 2012.
Miami struck early in free agency, landing perhaps the best receiver in this year’s free agency class in Wallace. Ryan Tannehill now has a legitimate downfield threat, and he becomes a viable QB2 option. While Wallace certainly got paid off, this move doesn’t help his fantasy value. He’s extremely big-play dependent in terms of fantasy production, and Tannehill hasn’t displayed the kind of deep ball we’ve seen from Ben Roethlisberger.
Wallace’s low-floor, high-ceiling combination makes it tough to trust him as anything more than an inconsistent WR2. This move does help Brian Hartline, who is much better suited to a No. 2 role. Hartline has value in deeper PPR leagues. The Dolphins also signed WR Brandon Gibson, though it’s tough to envision Gibson having fantasy value in the foreseeable future.
Other Recent Player News
Alex Smith | Chiefs acquire veteran QB for draft picks. | Read More
Anquan Boldin | Boldin traded to 49ers for 6th-round pick. | Read More
Donnie Avery | Chiefs and WR Avery agree to 3-year, $8.55 million deal. | Read More
Brandon Gibson | Miami continues to revamp WR corps by acquiring Gibson. | Read More
Shonn Greene | Titans sign RB Greene to 3-year, $10-million contract. | Read More
Mike Goodson | Jets agree to 3-year, $6.9 million contract with RB Goodson. | Read More
Rashard Mendenhall | Mendenhall inks 1-year, $2.5 million deal with Arizona. | Read More
Danny Woodhead | Woodhead agrees to 2-year deal with Chargers. | Read More
Jared Cook | Rams give TE Cook $35.11 million over 5 years. | Read More
Martellus Bennett | Bennett signs 4-year, $20.4 million contract with Bears. | Read More
Brandon Myers | Giants fill tight end void by signing Myers. | Read More
James Casey | Eagles add versatile TE to Chip Kelly’s offense for 3-years at $14.5 million. | Read More
Dustin Keller | Keller and Dolphins agree to terms on 1-year, $4.25 million contract. | Read More
Delanie Walker | Ex-49er inks 4 year, $17.5 million deal with Titans to replace TE Jared Cook. | Read More
Bonus IDP Move – Dannell Ellerbe to the Dolphins
The Dolphins also revamped their linebacker corps, bringing in Dannell Ellerbe and Phillip Wheeler and releasing Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett. Ellerbe stepped up this past season for the Ravens when Ray Lewis and Jameel McClain were sidelined with injuries. In an every-down role, Ellerbe showed he’s a capable run stuffer and viable pass rusher. He racked up 92 total tackles and five sacks on just 667 defensive snaps.
Miami has confirmed that they plan to use Ellerbe in the middle, and it’s expected he’ll be on the field in an every-down role. As a three-down linebacker, Ellerbe’s a lock for triple-digit tackles. His ability as a pass rusher gives him added fantasy value in IDP leagues. Ellerbe makes for a strong LB2 option in 2013.
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