And just like that, the 2024 NFL Draft is behind us. Let’s take a look at each team in the NFC and break down their picks. Here are my draft grades, rankings, and player comps for all of the NFC teams over the course of what turned out to be a wild 2024 NFL Draft.
Check out my AFC Draft Grades here.
- 2024 NFL Draft Winners & Losers
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- Dynasty Startup Draft Primers
- Dynasty Draft Kit
2024 NFL Draft: NFC Draft Grades
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears | Draft Grade: B+
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
1 | Caleb Williams | 1 | QB1 | Southern California | Aaron Rodgers | 6007 | 217 | — |
9 | Rome Odunze | 7 | WR3 | Washington | Davante Adams | 6027 | 212 | 9.92 |
75 | Kiran Amegadjie | 81 | OT13 | Yale | Matt Peart | 6053 | 323 | — |
122 | Tory Taylor | 132 | P1 | Iowa | Bryan Anger | 6040 | 222 | — |
144 | Austin Booker | 88 | ED11 | Kansas | Arden Key | 6044 | 253 | 7.02 |
Caleb Williams was the obvious choice at 1.1. That he is a Bear today is testament to a series of slick decisions by GM Ryan Poles, beginning with the call to bail out of last year’s top selection for a negotiated ransom that included Carolina’s 2024 Round 1 pick.
Williams is an electric playmaker with a huge creative bent to his game. A good athlete with a live arm, Williams doesn’t need both feet under him to zing it on the money with effortless velocity to any sector of the field.
Williams’ tape is littered with accuracy, touch and placement. He can make all the throws, and he knows it. As a thrower, he’s audacious without being reckless. Williams only threw 14 career interceptions over 1,099 attempts.
This makes him especially dangerous in the red zone. Williams rushed for 27 TD over two-and-a-half seasons as a starter. If he doesn’t like what he’s seeing, he’ll steal the touchdown himself. Williams’ prerogative to extend plays is a two-way street. He has a highlight reel full of electric plays out of structure, and a lowlight reel of extended plays off bridge-to-nowhere planks. Williams fumbled 32 times over 35 career games.
Last season, Williams posted the highest pressure-to-sack ratio (23.2%) of my top-20 QB. That was up from a solid 16.0% the year before, when Williams won the Heisman while throwing for 4,537 yards with 52 total TDs. Williams regressed on a 7-5 USC team in 2023. His play under pressure, elite in 2022 (85.1 PFF grade), devolved in 2023 (41.6).
You can only blame so much of that on his offensive line, as Williams’ style forces linemen to hold blocks longer and can sometimes scramble him into corners from which there is no escape. Williams led the FBS with 50 dropbacks in which the ball didn’t come out within six seconds of the snap. His 3.16-second average throw time was second-highest in this draft class.
Williams actually improved in this area after averaging 3.44 seconds per attempt during his outstanding 2022 season. Further improvement will be necessary to become an NFL star. Last year – I’m sorry to mention this, Bears fans – Justin Fields led the NFL with 3.39 seconds. That, plus Fields’ elevated pressure-to-sack rate – the two are correlated – was the biggest red flag of Fields’ evaluation coming out of Ohio State.
The path for Williams to improve entails mastering in-structure timing routes. The bad news is he did very little of that at USC. The good news is that it’s theoretically coachable-then-schemable, whereas Williams’ out-of-structure magic is categorically not.
But the fact remains that, at present, Caleb Williams doesn’t throw receivers open; he buys time until they are. There will be several moments in each NFL game he plays in when that inclination will be absolutely appropriate. The same will be true of manufacturing yards from in-rhythm completions from within the pocket.
Williams has legitimately special ability. You don’t have to squint to envision him as a top-five NFL quarterback. But Williams needs to learn how to differentiate between the times it’s appropriate to put on the superhero cape and create, and when it’s best to take the short profit and move on.
Fortunately for him, the Bears will offer him a far, far better situation than Fields ever got. That was true even before Chicago took WR Rome Odunze at 1.9, but even more so afterward.
Odunze combines size, strength, physicality, speed, footwork, release package, agility, and route-running know-how to get to the most impressive aspect of his game: The ball skills are truly special. He’s a dog on the bone with the ball in the air.
Last year, Odunze had a microscopic 3.2% drop rate on 140 targets (after posting a stellar 5.1% drop rate the year before). He has a preternatural feel for tracking, as though he is watching the ball’s flight on Google Glasses inside his helmet before he has actually turned his head.
Odunze was an incredible 20-for-27 in contested situations in 2023. Not only did he lead the class in contested catches, but Odunze also had the best contested catch rate of anyone in the double-digits. Odunze is so utterly comfortable in these situations – especially down the field – that he will sometimes appear to allow his man to get a bit closer with the ball in descent, perhaps to have a better feel for where exactly he is at the moment of truth for positioning purposes.
But Odunze also has a special skill at the catch point downfield to ensure he’s the only one who gets to make a legitimate play on the ball – he doesn’t put his hands up for the ball until the last possible moment, depriving defenders of the opportunity to compete with him for it.
Because of this honing device of his, Odunze is one of those guys who will immediately and drastically alter his plan to try to save poorly thrown balls. He’ll work back against the grain for underthrown balls, he’ll leap and extend for overthrows, he’ll pick low screamers clean before they hit the carpet and he’ll line his toes on the chalk to corral balls thrown too far up the sideline.
Lastly, do yourself a favor and don’t make the “why did they take a punter in Round 4” take until you have seen Tory Taylor, who became the first punter to earn a Round 4 grade in the Thor500 in its five year history. Taylor’s pitching wedge routine with balls inside the 10 is unreal. He is a field position trump card.
Standing 5 feet from a future Hall of Famer pic.twitter.com/rTB7xb6rZd
— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) January 31, 2024
Detroit Lions | Draft Grade: A+
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
24 | Terrion Arnold | 16 | CB2 | Alabama | Jaylon Johnson | 6000 | 189 | 9.27 |
61 | Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | 36 | CB6 | Missouri | Byron Murphy | 5111 | 183 | 6.17 |
126 | Giovanni Manu | — | OG64 | British Columbia | — | 6073 | 352 | 8.84 |
132* | Sione Vaki | 137 | S10 | Utah | Godwin Igwebuike | 5111 | 213 | 7.95 |
189 | Mekhi Wingo | 113 | DL12 | Louisiana State | Maurice Hurst | 6002 | 284 | 8.78 |
210* | Christian Mahogany | 70 | OG5 | Boston College | Sidy Sow | 6033 | 314 | 9.63 |
This year, the always-entertaining GM Brad Holmes kicked things off with a five-slot trade-up to seize the day and stop the fall of CB Terrion Arnold. Arnold had fallen down the board simply because of the quirk of 14-straight offensive players getting picked to start the night.
This continued the drumbeat of Holmes’ aggressive offseason strategy of addressing the Lions’ Achilles’ heel CB room, which began with a deal for Carlton Davis and a free agent contract for Amik Robertson. Despite that, CB remained Detroit’s biggest need heading into Thursday.
Arnold lacks elite speed, but he’s smooth as silk and smart as a whip. He’s very natural with the ball in the air, whipping his head around and getting his hands up. Two other things that you love: Arnold flies downhill to help in the run game, and he has extensive experience on special teams.
In Round 2, Holmes decided to double-tap at CB while ringing that knee-cap-biter bell again. CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr. is skinny and runs a modest 4.51. But he’s extremely difficult to shake, a shifty, feisty corner who stays in your face.
Rakestraw Jr. is also a gleeful kamikaze of a run defender who flies down the alley looking to turn himself into a human projectile. This ethos perhaps comes from his – ala Arnold – extensive special teams experience.
Holmes had one curveball for us midway through when he took fascinating size/athleticism British Columbia lottery ticket OL Giovanni Manu.
I adored the last three picks, a trio of objective steals with S Sione Vaki, DT Mekhi Wingo, and OG Christian Mahogany. Vaki has RB versatility. Wingo is undersized but jittery and difficult to keep out of the backfield.
But the real steal was Mahogany. I’m confused how he got to the No. 210 pick. He was good at the P5 level for multiple years, he’s a strong athlete, and, well… I’ll let GM Brad Holmes let the last word to explain the rest.
Brad Holmes on G Christian Mahogany: "He's got some dirtbag in him. He's one of these Jersey kids who doesn't take a lot of crap."
All-time quote.
— kyle meinke (@kmeinke) April 27, 2024
Green Bay Packers | Draft Grade: C-
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
25 | Jordan Morgan | 29 | OG1 | Arizona | La’el Collins | 6050 | 311 | 9.25 |
45 | Edgerrin Cooper | 47 | LB2 | Texas AM | Bobby Okereke | 6020 | 230 | 9.13 |
58 | Javon Bullard | 83 | S4 | Georgia | Nasir Adderley | 5105 | 198 | 8.25 |
88 | MarShawn Lloyd | 86 | RB4 | Southern California | Rashard Mendenhall | 5086 | 220 | 8.62 |
91 | Ty’Ron Hopper | 213 | LB17 | Missouri | Tyrel Dodson | 6017 | 228 | 7.42 |
111 | Evan Williams | 221 | S18 | Oregon | Vinnie Sunseri | 5116 | 206 | 8.2 |
163 | Jacob Monk | 296 | OC9 | Duke | Greg Mancz | 6030 | 308 | 9.74 |
169* | Kitan Oladapo | 106 | S7 | Oregon State | Jaquiski Tartt | 6021 | 216 | 8.18 |
202 | Travis Glover | 352 | OT28 | Georgia State | LaAdrian Waddle | 6060 | 317 | 4.71 |
245 | Michael Pratt | 143 | QB8 | Tulane | Will Grier | 6024 | 217 | 8.28 |
255* | Kalen King | 204 | CB28 | Penn State | David Long | 5110 | 190 | 6.68 |
The Packers did well to address that offensive line need while they could – in the environment we found ourselves in, things were drying up quickly. The Packers did that with Arizona’s Jordan Morgan.
An awesome collegiate tackle, Morgan may be headed inside at the next level due to vacillating pass-pro technique on the outside. Morgan has good strength, shocking defenders with his punch.
He’s a skilled run-blocker who generates serious north-south force and consistently hits the play-side shoulder of his mark in zone concepts. In pass-pro, his lack of length and elite side-to-side movement skills get him in trouble against speed rushers. But kicked inside to guard, that relative issue disappears, while all of his strengths play up.
On Friday, the Packers bolstered the second-level of the defense in the form of LB Edgerrin Cooper (No. 45) and S Javon Bullard (No. 58). I’m a big fan of Cooper, my LB2 (No. 47 on my board). He’s a sideline-to-sideline menace who was utterly dominant last year in the SEC.
Green Bay took RB MarShawn Lloyd almost exactly where I ranked him on my board. While the value was there, it’s a rather odd fit. Lloyd rarely played on passing downs in college. Can he steal early-down timeshare from Josh Jacobs and AJ Dillon?
I thought the next three picks were reaches. But I did like the values that Green Bay got on S Kitan Oladapo and QB Michael Pratt. Pratt’s combination of rushing utility in the short game and intermediate skill in the passing game should make him a solid backup. My concern is Pratt’s lengthy injury history, which includes multiple concussions and a serious shoulder injury. Luckily, backup gigs are pretty safe jobs.
Minnesota Vikings | Draft Grade: A
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
10 | J.J. McCarthy | 3 | QB3 | Michigan | Rich Gannon | 6025 | 215 | — |
17 | Dallas Turner | 18 | ED3 | Alabama | Nolan Smith | 6026 | 247 | 8.86 |
108 | Khyree Jackson | 136 | CB20 | Oregon | Joshua Williams | 6037 | 203 | 7.86 |
177 | Walter Rouse | 149 | OT16 | Oklahoma | Cedric Ogbuehi | 6057 | 314 | 7.86 |
203 | Will Reichard | 246 | K2 | Alabama | Ka’imi Fairbairn | 6005 | 189 | — |
230 | Michael Jurgens | — | OC17 | Wake Forest | — | 6046 | 307 | 7.62 |
232 | Levi Drake Rodriguez | 333 | DL31 | Texas A&M Commerce | Vincent Taylor | 6020 | 300 | 6.11 |
The Vikings not only have their quarterback, but they managed to do it while protecting their second first-rounder and 2025 first-rounder. Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah ultimately balked at New England’s exorbitant ask for 1.3. More audaciously, he called the Giants bluff. Ultimately, multiple first-rounders weren’t required to move up for JJ McCarthy, but Nos. 129 and 157 (while Minnesota got No. 203 as a kick-back from the Jets).
McCarthy is a tailor-made fit for HC Kevin O’Connell’s 12-personnel offense, adept at timing concepts to beat tight coverage, a key component of Jim Harbaugh’s 12-personnel pro-style system. He mercilessly attacks the middle of the field. Last season, of the top QB in this class, McCarthy had the most intermediate completions over the middle, posting a ludicrous 85.6% adjusted completion percentage on 97 such attempts.
McCarthy is a superb athlete with a big arm. He ran the sixth-fastest 3-cone at the NFL Combine at 17 pounds heavier than his Michigan listing, and his 61 mph max-velocity throw at the Combine was one mph under the record. Importantly, these two things work in conjunction on the field.
McCarthy had a 72.3% completion percentage in 2023. When scrambling, an absurd 71.4%. McCarthy keeps his eyes up with his upper-body cocked to throw and a throwing platform firmly under him while he maneuvers around. He doesn’t lose accuracy on the move because he takes his mechanics with him. He fires frozen ropes to all three sectors on the move.
One of the most encouraging aspects of McCarthy’s 2023 breakout season was his work under pressure. He has the lateral agility and acceleration to get out of sticky situations, and he’s comfortable ad-libbing. The improvisational aspect of McCarthy’s game could be special at the next level.
McCarthy is the only QB in this draft class who finished 72nd-percentile or higher in these seven PFF categories: standard dropback percentile, at or the beyond sticks percentile, avoids negative plays percentile, under pressure percentile, outside the pocket percentile, third/fourth down percentile and positively graded throws percentile. No other QB in this draft was 54th-percentile or higher in each.
McCarthy needs to improve his sideline accuracy. Last year, he managed to rank No. 5 in the FBS in catchable throw rate despite finishing No. 48 outside the numbers. When he’s off, it’s due to his tendency to take an exaggerated lead step and swing his upper-body on the follow-through. He’s in the middle of a mechanical tweaking of his downfield ball to subtract some velocity for loft, which was on display at the Combine and his pro day.
For a franchise that has never won a Super Bowl, McCarthy, 61-3 as a starter since high school with two state titles and a college football national championship, was a worthy bet. After it had been made, Adofo-Mensah had more equity to play with than we assumed he’d be left with. He made it count.
When EDGE Dallas Turner, the odds-on favorite against the field to be the first defender drafted, fell to No. 17, Kwesi sent No. 157 and 2025 R3/R4 picks to the Jaguars for No. 23. From a currency-rate perspective, this was an overpay equivalent to the value of the No. 61 pick. But picks only have value because they can be cashed into prospects. And on most boards – including very obviously the Vikings’ – Turner was ranked higher than No. 17 (and thus calculable in the Vikings’ math as worth more than it).
Turner is a ridiculous athlete – fast, explosive, and bendy, with very long arms – who needs to be polished. He’s a tremendous stylistic fit for DC Brian Flores’ system. The same could be said for Round 4 CB Khyree Jackson, of whom Oregon HC Dan Lanning has been vociferous in conviction. Due to the wretched state of Minnesota’s CB room, it’s possible Jackson plays early if Lanning is right about him.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys | Draft Grade: B+
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
29 | Tyler Guyton | 35 | OT7 | Oklahoma | Kwame Harris | 6076 | 322 | 9.73 |
56 | Marshawn Kneeland | 34 | ED6 | Western Michigan | Tuli Tuipulotu | 6030 | 267 | 9.08 |
73 | Cooper Beebe | 52 | OG3 | Kansas State | Kevin Zeitler | 6032 | 322 | 9.28 |
87 | Marist Liufau | 146 | LB10 | Notre Dame | Jarrad Davis | 6020 | 234 | 5.64 |
174* | Caelen Carson | 133 | CB19 | Wake Forest | Kristian Fulton | 5117 | 193 | 6.21 |
216* | Ryan Flournoy | 183 | WR27 | Southeast Missouri | Dontayvion Wicks | 6006 | 202 | 9.89 |
233 | Nathan Thomas | 215 | OT20 | Louisiana | Justin Anderson | 6050 | 332 | 7.49 |
244 | Justin Rogers | 268 | DL24 | Auburn | Ego Ferguson | 6026 | 322 | 1.18 |
I had an early-R2 grade on OT Tyler Guyton, but I didn’t consider that pick a reach. Dallas actually played that one about as well as they could have in lieu of circumstances. The Cowboys originally sat at No. 24. Because of the crazy offensive tackle run early, only one remained available who could potentially compete for early LT snaps – Guyton.
But because of that wild run, all kinds of interior OL (another area of need), WRs, and quality defenders remained on the board. So the Cowboys accepted the Lions’ offer of No. 73 (while kicking back a 2025 R7) to move down five slots. Guyton skipped his way down those five slots, and Dallas took him at No. 29. Many now project Guyton as Dallas’ Week 1 starting LT. I’m not so sure.
Guyton was a very strange watch, indeed. If you had only watched a cut-up of his 50-best reps against top competition, you would have sworn he was a top-15 (or even top-10) prospect. Guyton has the frame, length, smooth feet – seriously, watch him shuffle – and overall athletic profile to become a perennial Pro Bowler.
But if you only watched his 50-worst reps, you’d wonder if he was draftable at all. We saw bizarre fits of struggles – with wavering technique, and wavering engagement. This is a high-variance prospect whose technique and focus needs fine-tuning.
What I loved about the Cowboys’ trade-down gambit is that the No. 73 was parlayed into OG Cooper Beebe – who in my opinion should have gone a round earlier. He was a dominant collegiate player, a north-south hammer in the run game, along with a reliable pass protector. Beebe was dinged by the NFL because he had the second-shortest arms of the 161 OGs in my 2024 NFL Draft database.
In Round 2, Dallas got tremendous value on another prospect who fell due to a question that ultimately may or may not matter – EDGE Marshawn Kneeland. Kneeland is probably the best run-defending EDGE in this class. He is a speed-to-power load with a relentless, hair-on-fire style. He’s a little stiff, but I think he could become a more effective pass-rusher if he can develop some changeup-pitch counter moves to the heater that is his power.
New York Giants | Draft Grade: C+
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
6 | Malik Nabers | 5 | WR2 | Louisiana State | Odell Beckham Jr. | 6002 | 199 | 9.67 |
47 | Tyler Nubin | 61 | S1 | Minnesota | Marcus Williams | 6012 | 205 | 3.72 |
70 | Andru Phillips | 69 | CB10 | Kentucky | Roger McCreary | 5106 | 192 | 8.13 |
107 | Theo Johnson | 168 | TE8 | Penn State | Albert Okwuegbunam | 6060 | 259 | 9.93 |
166 | Tyrone Tracy | 112 | RB6 | Purdue | Miles Sanders | 5111 | 209 | 9.78 |
183 | Darius Muasau | 179 | LB14 | UCLA | Jalen Reeves-Maybin | 6000 | 225 | 5.73 |
If the Giants had taken a quarterback over WR Malik Nabers, they basically would have been tanking in 2024, and if that were the case, why trade for Brian Burns? It was the right call either way.
We think of defenders as the ones who attack. Nabers flips that on its head, a break-neck route-runner in complete control of inexhaustible, high-wattage electricity. Nabers sets the table for his route-break filth by altering tempo and movement patterns unpredictably.
Nabers wide-open separation rate compares favorably to any prospect in the past 10 classes. Hit him on the hands, and the defense is in a car chase with Mario Andretti. Nabers’ 30 missed tackles, 309 receiving yards after contact and 43 explosive plays all finished No. 2 last season.
Nabers has extremely reliable hands. So reliable, in fact, that he posted the exact same stellar drop rate each of the last two seasons: 5.3%. I particularly appreciate the smoothness with which he’s able to spear off-target balls outside his frame and without wasting motion or losing momentum become a runner.
LSU spoon-fed him very few freebie targets. The Tigers instead leveraged Nabers’ athleticism to attack defenses deeper down the field. Nabers is a downfield killer. He has the athleticism to free himself and the leaping acrobatic style downfield to win jump balls.
Nabers’ game is tailor-made for where the NFL is going. He was the Giants’ unquestioned WR1 the second the card was submitted, a shot-in-the-arm to what was previously one of the league’s worst WR corps.
On Friday, New York flipped its attention to the secondary, taking the first safety off the board (Tyler Nubin) at No. 47 and CB Andru Phillips at No. 70. I like both players. Nubin was my S1 – he’s not much of an athlete, but he has the same see-things-before-they-happen DNA that Gopher big-brother Antoine Winfield Jr. had, which had the effect of giving each a head start to the action on every play. Funny how often head starts lead to the finish line in short races.
The sleeper of this class is RB Tyrone Tracy. Tracy is a bouncy, juiced-up, wide-based slasher with better vision and instincts than expected. He absorbs off-angle shots without losing momentum. Tracy runs with tempo and has a knack for timing cutbacks to free himself into open grass, where his 4.48 wheels take over. These skills will play as a returner.
Tracy piled up more explosive runs last year per carry than he had any business accruing on a dead-end Boilermaker outfit. His 163.5 elusive rating and 4.44 yards after contact per attempt were tops amongst my top-30 ranked RBs in this class. Tracy enters the NFL as a 24-year-old sixth-year senior. While this theoretically caps his upside, he’s also fresh after only 259 scrimmage touches in college.
Philadelphia Eagles | Draft Grade: A+
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
22 | Quinyon Mitchell | 11 | CB1 | Toledo | Johnathan Joseph | 6002 | 198 | 9.79 |
40 | Cooper DeJean | 19 | CB3 | Iowa | Antrel Rolle | 6005 | 203 | 9.85 |
94 | Jalyx Hunt | 80 | ED10 | Houston Christian | Derick Hall | 6036 | 252 | 9.22 |
127 | Will Shipley | 181 | RB14 | Clemson | Eric Gray | 5111 | 206 | 9.58 |
152 | Ainias Smith | 229 | WR32 | Texas AM | Olamide Zaccheaus | 5090 | 189 | 7.36 |
155 | Jeremiah Trotter Jr. | 100 | LB6 | Clemson | Eric Kendricks | 6003 | 230 | — |
172* | Trevor Keegan | 248 | OG14 | Michigan | Jack Anderson | 6051 | 309 | 9.19 |
185 | Johnny Wilson | 103 | WR16 | Florida State | Hakeem Butler | 6063 | 231 | 9.7 |
190 | Dylan McMahon | 238 | OC8 | North Carolina State | Luke Wypler | 6033 | 299 | 9.81 |
On Thursday, Howie Roseman did what he usually does, which is sit back and take advantage of the NFL’s hubris. On that day, he was said to have been maniacally laughing as he called in the card with the name of the draft’s best CB, Quinyon Mitchell, who somehow fell to No. 22, making it conveniently unnecessary for Roseman to surrender anything to trade up for him.
Perhaps that sort of thing had gotten boring, simply waiting around for the NFL’s gifts to be sent his way. Perhaps, on the Lyft ride back to his hotel, the driver had made the JJ Arcega-Whiteside joke that finally pushed him over the edge. Nobody can say for sure. But when Howie returned on Friday, he wasn’t in the mood to crack jokes about other teams’ terrible picks, or run the war room pool for which perennial Pro Bowler was about to be passed down the board to the Eagles.
On Friday, Howie showed up in John Wick mode. He kicked down the door and the transactions started flying fast and furious, the first a strike up the board to steal versatile CB Cooper DeJean. Only 40 picks into the event, and Roseman owned two of the class’ top-3 CBs. Conveniently his biggest need, with the aging duo of Darius Slay and James Bradberry nearing the end.
Roseman kept firing, stealing value at each turn in a series of skip-down trades in the middle rounds. Then he tossed a duffel bag on the table and started demanding 2025 picks, collecting, at final count, third-, fourth- and fifth-round selections in next year’s draft across three separate deals. The Eagles’ eight draft trades tied the NFL’s record.
The Eagles took a break from trading down to take EDGE Jalyx Hunt at No. 94. Hunt was my favorite EDGE sleeper. A former safety, he retained the athleticism while bulking up. He’s now a pass-rushing OLB. Fascinating ball of clay.
I didn’t like the first pair of picks on Saturday – RB Will Shipley and WR Ainias Smith. Shipley has to make it on his pass-catching and special-team utility, and I’m not as impressed by the former as most. Smith is the dime-a-dozen manufactured-touch slot that never returns value.
Perhaps Howie had gotten distracted by haggling with Brad Holmes. He snapped out of it by stopping the falls of LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and WR Johnny Wilson. I was lower on Trotter Jr. than most, and still had him ranked 55 slots higher on my board than Philadelphia took him.
Wilson was a productive collegiate receiver (2.52 YPRR) with obvious utility down the field, something his elevated yearly aDOT figures spoke to (14.4 career). But he continues to have issues with drops – his 12.8% career drop rate is a huge red flag.
But Wilson has skills you don’t typically see in players this big – you don’t have to squint to envision him being a nightmare down the seam. And when you play him off, you leave yourself susceptible to Wilson screeching on the breaks and coming back to the ball, something he’s surprisingly good at for a tall oak.
Wilson has apparently been unwilling to consider a move to big-slot TE. If I were the Eagles, I would no longer make it an optional thing for him.
Washington Commanders | Draft Grade: A
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
2 | Jayden Daniels | 2 | QB2 | Louisiana State | Randall Cunningham | 6035 | 210 | — |
36 | Jer’Zhan Newton | 22 | DL2 | Illinois | Javon Hargrave | 6015 | 304 | — |
50 | Mike Sainristil | 37 | CB7 | Michigan | Kenny Moore | 5092 | 182 | 8.45 |
53 | Ben Sinnott | 53 | TE2 | Kansas State | Sam LaPorta | 6040 | 250 | 9.73 |
67 | Brandon Coleman | 75 | OG6 | Texas Christian | Matthew Bergeron | 6044 | 313 | 9.97 |
100* | Luke McCaffrey | 107 | WR17 | Rice | Josh Reynolds | 6015 | 198 | 9.44 |
139 | Jordan Magee | 104 | LB7 | Temple | Daiyan Henley | 6010 | 228 | 9.6 |
161 | Dominique Hampton | 174 | S13 | Washington | Tycen Anderson | 6025 | 213 | 9.46 |
222 | Javontae Jean-Baptiste | 228 | ED26 | Notre Dame | William Bradley-King | 6045 | 239 | 9.22 |
Big weekend for new GM Adam Peters, starting with the correct decision to take reigning Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. Daniels brings two superpowers to the pros: He will, from Day 1, be one of the most dangerous running threats the NFL has ever seen at the position. He also has a downfield cannon with a feathery touch.
Both of these things will translate, embedding a reasonable floor and the makings of a theoretically sky-high ceiling. In 2023, everything came together during Daniels’ national coming out party. He finished No. 1 in the FBS in PFF deep-passing grade and No. 3 in big-time throw rate while finishing 98th-percentile in avoiding negative plays.
He had learned how to take care of the ball while becoming hyper-aggressive in situations that called for it, that ever-rare dichotomy of explosion and discretion. Combine that with his absurd rushing output – his 2,329 run yards the past two seasons were nearly 600 yards higher than the next-highest quarterback – and you can see why he won the Heisman.
Last season, Daniels bent the spatial rules of the football field. He forced opposing defensive coordinators to decide where they were going to rob Peter to pay Paul schematically. Whatever they decided, Daniels made them pay.
Do you spy on Daniels to contain him behind the line of scrimmage? If so, how are you going to keep a second safety deep to protect against the long ball? Do you try to speed things up by ramping up the blitz? You better get home quickly if you do that. Daniels was PFF’s highest-graded quarterback against the blitz in 2023.
I love Daniels’ snap-decision profit calculator. When he has the best of it, he pushes all his chips to the middle of the table. If it’s not, he will seamlessly revert to taking whatever profit is available to him. He doesn’t bail the pocket until he has to; Daniels is a full-field reader who is not looking to pull the down until he has to. But when he does, he shoots into the second level before defensive backs realize he’s broken containment.
Daniels’ pocket management has grown by leaps and bounds as the game has slowed down for him over the past few years. He has quiet feet and a sturdy platform under him as he calmly surveys his options. His 82.2 PFF pressure grade last year ranks No. 2 in this class. Daniels’ accuracy and placement are high-level at all three levels.
I’m not as concerned by the fifth-year breakout as some others are. Daniels was a highly-touted recruit with obvious ability who played all five seasons and showed consistent improvement outside of the bizarre 2021 outlier. It’s more likely that his leap up last season is indicative of more improvement to come than it being a mirage. The arrow is pointing up developmentally, and Daniels was already the nation’s best QB last year.
I could have sworn Peters was peeking at my board on Friday – it was a BPA Thor500 party, first by stopping DT Jer’Zhan Newton‘s free-fall at No. 36. Newton is undersized, and he doesn’t always keep assignment integrity in the run game because of his swashbuckling style. But he’s a jittery, active, gap-shooting interior penetrator who can short-circuit plays quickly.
Next, Peters took three of my favorites in quick succession with Football IQ-of-Doogie-Howzer Mike Sainristil at No. 50, Sam LaPorta-lite TE Ben Sinnott at No. 53 (I have a feeling Washington fans will see some Chris Cooley in him), and the “sleeper” WR I banged the drum for all spring, WR Luke McCaffrey, who Peters woke the masses up to at No. 100
The Commanders finished No. 1 in my metrics for talent acquired, and they did it at the cost of the third-most draft equity spent. Things could not have gone much better for Peters and crew. This is the type of class that can turn the ship around.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals | Draft Grade: C
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
4 | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 4 | WR1 | Ohio State | A.J. Green | 6032 | 209 | — |
27 | Darius Robinson | 25 | ED4 | Missouri | Arik Armstead | 6051 | 285 | 7.78 |
43 | Max Melton | 67 | CB9 | Rutgers | Jakorian Bennett | 5111 | 185 | 9.09 |
66 | Trey Benson | 66 | RB1 | Florida State | DeMarco Murray | 6002 | 221 | 9.76 |
71 | Isaiah Adams | 201 | OG11 | Illinois | Wyatt Davis | 6042 | 315 | 7.23 |
82 | Tip Reiman | 232 | TE13 | Illinois | Luke Stocker | 6046 | 271 | 9.92 |
90 | Elijah Jones | 109 | CB16 | Boston College | Sean Murphy-Bunting | 6016 | 185 | 8.96 |
104 | Dadrion Taylor-Demerson | 89 | S5 | Texas Tech | Jordan Whitehead | 5100 | 197 | 8.1 |
138 | Xavier Thomas | 139 | ED16 | Clemson | Oshane Ximines | 6022 | 253 | 8.17 |
162 | Christian Jones | 76 | OT11 | Texas | Kenyatta Walker | 6052 | 305 | 6.18 |
191 | Tejhaun Palmer | 358 | WR48 | Alabama Birmingham | Bennie Fowler | 6016 | 210 | 9.57 |
226 | Jaden Davis | 485 | CB65 | Miami | Javelin Guidry | 5096 | 187 | 5.49 |
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. had the highest target share – 33.3% – in college football last season. It spiked to 40% against man coverage. The reason for this was simple pragmatism: Harrison Jr. was 100th-percentile in PFF receiving grade against single-man coverage over the past two seasons.
Defensive coordinators started going to unprecedented lengths to address the Harrison Jr. problem. Per the charting of Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon, Harrion Jr. was double-teamed by opponents more than any prospect he had ever charted… and Harrison Jr. shattered Harmon’s previous record for success rate when doubled!
Harrison Jr. throttles speed at will – his most impressive attribute as a route-runner. It’s very difficult to get a bead on his intentions because of this. He’s precise and calculated into the route break, and utterly violent out of them, exposing back to top speed quickly.
Harrison Jr. is a downfield killer – top five last year in both deep catches and deep yards – with an unfair blend of size/speed, body control, and leaping ability. Harrison has a huge catch radius, and he’s reliable with anything you can get near it, posting a strong 6.1% career drop rate over heavy volume at Ohio State.
Harrison Jr. is the prototype physically and athletically, with genetics and pedigree in spades. For receiver prospects, it’s rare to see floor/ceiling combinations this high.
Next, the Cardinals took EDGE Darius Robinson. Robinson’s length and strength made him a serious problem in the SEC. He’s slow off the line and lacks lateral quickness, but his ferocious power and rugged playstyle should make him a strong starting 3-4 DE in Arizona’s front immediately.
I loved Arizona’s decision to take Trey Benson, my RB1. Benson is the premier size/speed combination in this RB class, with 4.39 wheels at 216 pounds. Over the last two seasons at FSU, he proved to be a tackle-breaker and a solid receiver. He has the highest ceiling of any back in this class.
In 2022, Benson set the single-season Pro Football Focus (PFF) record for forced missed tackle rate, becoming the first collegiate RB in the PFF charting era with a forced missed tackle rate over 50%. Over the last two seasons, Benson ranked first out of 226 qualifiers in missed tackles forced per attempt.
When he breaches the second level, watch out. Benson is a problem for smaller defenders in space – if you don’t go low to chop him down, he’ll lower his pads and turn into a speed-to-power wrecking ball. He was 96th-percentile in breakaway rate between 2022-2023.
The biggest issue I have with Benson is his vision and feel come and go. He can get tunnel-vision with his initial plan and miss opportunities to stick his foot in the dirt and jut into an alternate path that has opened, which has the effect of running him into contact prematurely.
While I liked what Arizona did early, the Cardinals had some truly bizarre picks, like the reaches for OG Isaiah Adams and TE Tip Reiman on Day 2. I also thought there were plenty more worthy dice-rolls on the board when Arizona took WR Tejhaun Palmer and CB Jaden Davis late.
The Cardinals improved (leaving with the third-most talent), but they spent the second-most draft equity to do it, finishing No. 21 ROI.
Los Angeles Rams | Draft Grade: B
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
19 | Jared Verse | 14 | ED2 | Florida State | Kayvon Thibodeaux | 6037 | 254 | 9.6 |
39 | Braden Fiske | 51 | DL5 | Florida State | Devonte Wyatt | 6035 | 292 | 9.89 |
83 | Blake Corum | 96 | RB5 | Michigan | Devin Singletary | 5076 | 205 | 8.29 |
99* | Kamren Kinchens | 151 | S11 | Miami | Christopher Smith II | 5113 | 202 | 2.43 |
154 | Brennan Jackson | 118 | ED14 | Washington State | Cameron Thomas | 6037 | 264 | 8.42 |
196 | Tyler Davis | 197 | DL18 | Clemson | Sheldon Day | 6020 | 301 | 6.98 |
209* | Joshua Karty | 175 | K1 | Stanford | Jake Moody | 6016 | 205 | — |
213* | Jordan Whittington | 379 | WR52 | Texas | Ty Fryfogle | 6004 | 206 | — |
217* | Beaux Limmer | 98 | OC4 | Arkansas | Ben Hamilton | 6045 | 302 | 9.79 |
254* | KT Leveston | 216 | OG13 | Kansas State | Jermaine Eluemunor | 6040 | 330 | 6.58 |
The Rams came in needing to help at defensive line after losing Aaron Donald to retirement. The lackluster pass-rush also needed a jolt. Yesteryear, this team had a “Frick them picks!” ethos. This year, with a full table of draft equity at their disposal, it was “Eat your potatoes” time – and the Rams chowed down.
First came Jared Verse, who was a smash value at No. 19. The No. 14 player on my board, Verse filtered down the board due to the run on offensive players early Thursday night. A dominant collegiate player for years, Verse got nitpicked.
He’s a speed-to-power freight train with electric hands. Verse is hyper-explosive off the line. He gets tackles back on their heels and throws countless hand combinations and counter moves at them once engaged. The Rams added a nice depth piece at good value later on in EDGE Brennan Jackson.
In Round 2, Los Angeles took Verse’s FSU teammate DL Braden Fiske. Fiske is the opposite sort of player as Donald. He lacks power, and he can be moved in the run game. But the Rams are bringing Fiske in for his pass-rushing prowess and athletic trump cards.
In Round 3, the Rams picked RB Blake Corum, which at least allows Corum to stay within the same area code as Jim Harbaugh. Corum is a very real threat to steal a chunk of Kyren Williams‘ early-down work. But Williams will remain on the field for all passing downs. Corum wasn’t used much as a receiver at Michigan the past two years.
Corum has a bowling ball build. And like the break of a spinning bowling ball, he has very good lateral agility. More skilled than physically gifted, Corum’s patience and vision almost always have him making the correct decision behind the line.
Though he categorically lacks long speed – he’ll get chased down from behind on the instances he reaches open field – Corum has a very quick accelerator he punches emphatically once he sees his opening. He has arm-tackle-breaking muscle in addition to evasive agility to make the first man miss.
Lastly, I loved the value on C/G Beaux Limmer late – he’s a tremendous athlete with true three-position versatility that he proved against the best competition in the SEC.
San Francisco 49ers | Draft Grade: C+
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
31 | Ricky Pearsall | 32 | WR6 | Florida | Adam Thielen | 6010 | 189 | 9.91 |
64 | Renardo Green | 85 | CB12 | Florida State | Cobie Durant | 6000 | 191 | 8.21 |
86 | Dominick Puni | 49 | OG2 | Kansas | Austin Corbett | 6051 | 313 | 8.16 |
124 | Malik Mustapha | 108 | S8 | Wake Forest | Jonathan Abram | 5102 | 206 | 9.39 |
129 | Isaac Guerendo | 152 | RB11 | Louisville | C.J. Prosise | 6000 | 221 | 9.9 |
135* | Jacob Cowing | 163 | WR24 | Arizona | Jakeem Grant | 5083 | 168 | 6.28 |
215* | Jarrett Kingston | 399 | OG23 | Southern California | Joe Dahl | 6042 | 306 | 9.92 |
251 | Tatum Bethune | 266 | LB23 | Florida State | Sean Spence | 5113 | 227 | 4.1 |
The public may have seen Ricky Pearsall as a surprise Round 1 pick, but that’s exactly what he was on my board. In the last three seasons, Ricky Pearsall has functioned as the WR1 for Jayden Daniels (at Arizona State), and the WR1 for Anthony Richardson and Graham Mertz at Florida. He had an awesome Senior Bowl showing and an eye-popping NFL Combine.
Pearsall has an advanced feel for route-running and coverage designs. He will modify his path to get into open grass against zone and flick unpredictable and unsettling tempo changes at defenders in man like a toddler in control of your car’s volume knob.
Pearsall marries head/shoulder deeks with sudden cuts at the peak of his stem to coax false steps. Deliberate footwork in and out of breaks. On extended plays, he’ll throw the plan out the window and freelance himself open.
Pearsall is blessed with truly exceptional hands (86.8 PFF hands grade in 2023). He spears balls outside his frame with regularity. Extremely reliable with anything inside his frame. Multiple one-handed highlight reel catches on campus. His catch against Charlotte is one of the greatest any of us have ever seen in college football.
Pearsall showed the versatility to swap interchangeably between the slot and boundary in college. Pearsall’s athletic profile and tape suggest he could be used in the same interchangeable way in the NFL. If used on the boundary, as was the case in college, he’ll need to be adjusted pre-snap to free him from press coverage.
The other pick of San Francisco’s that I absolutely loved – buttressed by a pair of rock-solid selections to address the secondary – was the Round 3 selection of OL Dominick Puni. Puni had an eye-opening 2023 as Kansas’ left tackle after spending 2022 at LG.
He did not skip a beat after coming up via transfer from the sub-division. Though Puni excelled on the blindside last year, my assumption is that he’s headed to guard at the next level. He’s going to be a good one.
Seattle Seahawks | Draft Grade: A-
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
16 | Byron Murphy II | 13 | DL1 | Texas | Ed Oliver | 6004 | 297 | 9.23 |
81 | Christian Haynes | 56 | OG4 | Connecticut | Dylan Parham | 6026 | 317 | 9.1 |
118 | Tyrice Knight | 169 | LB13 | UTEP | Otaro Alaka | 6004 | 233 | 7.41 |
121 | AJ Barner | 116 | TE5 | Michigan | Josh Oliver | 6060 | 251 | 8.7 |
136 | Nehemiah Pritchett | 159 | CB22 | Auburn | John Reid | 6001 | 190 | 7.79 |
179 | Sataoa Laumea | 187 | OG10 | Utah | Bobby Hart | 6042 | 319 | — |
192 | DJ James | 94 | CB13 | Auburn | Marco Wilson | 5117 | 181 | 5.82 |
207 | Michael Jerrell | 351 | OT27 | Findlay | Kenyatta Jones | 6043 | 309 | 9.29 |
DT Byron Murphy II ultimately became the second defender off the board. This would have been a surprise during the regular season. But Murphy gained steam throughout the process. The more you watched his cutups, the more you appreciated his game.
He’s a springy, low-man-wins three-technique with a delicious blend of condensed power and agility. The former Feldman Freak Lister took the leap in 2023, ranking No. 1 in the FBS pass-rush win rate. Interior pressure is the bane of offenses, and Seattle has hired Murphy to walk into opponents’ football stadiums as Tom Hardy.
That aspect of Murphy’s game is the flashy thing that jumps off the screen. But it’s the other aspect of Murphy’s game that endeared itself to me. Many players of Murphy’s ilk – the undersized three-techniques who ratchet up pressure – are either poor run defenders, or inconsistent run defenders.
Not Murphy. Because of his ethos of leverage, and because he has such a ludicrously powerful trunk – he’s mythical in the Texas weight room – Murphy is darn near impossible to move backwards when he decides he doesn’t want to be.
On running plays, when his assignment is to hold his gap and occupy his man, that’s what’s happening – Murphy becomes the stump that cannot be removed from the ground. While he has you in a stalemate, his second-level friends are free to run free paths.
Seattle, apparently wanting to test that theory in practices for the next decade, got tremendous value on OG Christian Haynes at 3.81. Haynes stuck it out as the consistently elite player on bad UConn teams. He had tremendous Senior Bowl week and a strong gamut of athletic testing the following month at the NFL Combine.
I had TE AJ Barner ranked as high as anyone in the industry, and Seattle ended up taking him right around the same slot. Barner’s blocking cutup is a clinic. His initial pop, length, lower-body drive, and technique are devastating in combination.
Barner was also extremely adept at picking off defenders on the move. Both when pulling across the formation, something Michigan asked him to do frequently, and when asked to shoot to the second level and introduce himself to a linebacker.
Michigan’s OL got all the credit for Blake Corum averaging the same yards before contact (2.4) as after (2.4) last year while facing the most eight-man boxes in the FBS – Barner didn’t get nearly enough. Barner ranked No. 1 among FBS TEs with a 81.4 PFF run blocking grade – the next closest was 77.2.
He wasn’t just the best blocking TE in college football last year, he was a third offensive tackle. He will catch the rock a few times a game on checkdowns and maybe break a tackle. He will also be a core special-teamer, just like he was at Michigan. The Seahawks’ new special teams coach? Jay Harbaugh, who held the same post at Michigan last year.
Check out my AFC Draft Grades here.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons | Draft Grade: F
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
8 | Michael Penix Jr. | 40 | QB5 | Washington | Lefty Geno | 6022 | 216 | 9.75 |
35 | Ruke Orhorhoro | 45 | DL4 | Clemson | Justin Madubuike | 6040 | 294 | 9.92 |
74 | Bralen Trice | 73 | ED9 | Washington | Uchenna Nwosu | 6034 | 245 | 7.46 |
109 | Brandon Dorlus | 87 | DL9 | Oregon | Levi Onwuzurike | 6030 | 283 | 8.66 |
143 | JD Bertrand | 225 | LB19 | Notre Dame | Eric Westmoreland | 6007 | 235 | — |
186 | Jase McClellan | 273 | RB24 | Alabama | Jonas Gray | 5101 | 220 | — |
187 | Casey Washington | 282 | WR39 | Illinois | Chad Hansen | 6007 | 201 | 7.15 |
197 | Zion Logue | 290 | DL26 | Georgia | Armon Watts | 6055 | 314 | 5.13 |
I await the 30 for 30.
Heres the thing. You can justify the Cousins signing. You can justify Penix pick. You cant do both. It’s an egregious misallocation of resources even if you like Penix more than I do. He’s sealed their fate and in my way of seeing it, his goes with that.
— Thor Nystrom (@thorku) April 26, 2024
Carolina Panthers | Draft Grade: D
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
32 | Xavier Legette | 48 | WR11 | South Carolina | David Boston | 6010 | 221 | 9.9 |
46 | Jonathon Brooks | 77 | RB3 | Texas | Aaron Jones | 6004 | 214 | — |
72 | Trevin Wallace | 92 | LB5 | Kentucky | Kenneth Murray | 6010 | 237 | 9.34 |
101 | Ja’Tavion Sanders | 99 | TE4 | Texas | Gerald Everett | 6040 | 245 | 5.75 |
157 | Chau Smith-Wade | 257 | CB33 | Washington State | Asante Samuel Jr. | 5100 | 184 | 5.98 |
200 | Jaden Crumedy | 233 | DL22 | Mississippi State | Quinton Dial | 6037 | 301 | 7.54 |
240 | Michael Barrett | 209 | LB16 | Michigan | Dat Nguyen | 5110 | 232 | 3.84 |
As the public rubber-necked the flames of Terry Fontenot’s bonfire of a top-10 overall pick, Carolina GM Dan Morgan’s aw-shucks give-away of draft resources to another NFL franchise for no reason barely drew an eyebrow.
Morgan traded the No. 141 pick (which turned into OL Sedrick Van Pran) to the Bills for the No. 200 pick (which turned into DT Jaden Crumedy) for the right to pay WR Xavier Legette slightly more money, flipping slots at 32 and 33. When the draft resumed, the Bills took the WR they were going to take at No. 32, Keon Coleman. At the presser afterwards, asked to explain the logic, Dan Morgan said the following:
“Yeah, the fifth-year option is definitely important. I think, obviously, that was a big reason to trade up into the first round,” he said. “Besides the player, we loved Xavier. Everything he brought-not only as a person, but as a player. Like, his ability to attack the ball when it’s in the air, his ability to run with it after the catch, he’s big, he’s strong, he’s physical. Think he has a lot of upside. So we wanted to take that opportunity to go get our guy.”
Dan Morgan had to be aware that the Bills were going to take a receiver. And yet, they took his offer. This should have told Dan Morgan three things about a franchise with a far better track record at this than his own: 1) We do not have to give up assets to trade up for Xavier Legette, 2) A better scouting department prefers a different receiver in the same ilk… 3) …and is also explicitly stating, by their very willingness to accept the trade, that the jump from No. 200 to No. 141, and the four years of that prospect, is worth more than any perceived value of the “fifth-year option” tacked onto the receiver Buffalo preferred (which turned out to be Keon Coleman).
Morgan being the fish at the table is no referendum on Legette as a prospect, of course. Legette is a muscled-up receiver with inside/outside versatility who broke out in 2023 with a 71-1,255-7 line. Prior to that, he’d never posted more than 167 receiving yards in his four seasons previous to that on campus. He is the first WR since Velus Jones to gotop-three rounds despite never topping 500 receiving yards in the first four years in college.
Legette, fortunately, is blessed with very good hands – he spears balls outside his frame and will fish screamers off the turf. Last season, Legette dropped only two balls on 97 targets. He’s a springy athlete for his size with solid feet. Acrobatic high-point jump-ball guy. He has a good feel for working the sidelines and keeping his feet inside the chalk while going high for balls.
Legette has a knack for not losing momentum while turning upfield after a catch, which helps maximize YAC opportunities. This is key, because Legette is surprisingly not a tackle-breaking machine, despite his muscular frame. This is because he’s an easy target as a north-south athlete who doesn’t easily change directions.
Legette profiles as a solid NFL No. 2 boundary WR. He brings with him a wealth of experience on various special teams units from his first four years on campus, so he’ll chip in utility there as well.
I thought the Panthers reached on RB Jonathon Brooks, who tore his ACL against TCU on November 11. Brooks enters the NFL with a 10-game sample of strong tape and without a pre-draft process. Brooks said he will be ready for NFL training camp in late-July. He’s a top-three back in this class, but I’m not sure he’s shown the ceiling that justified this sort of pick for a franchise in such desperate need of help elsewhere.
One of the few picks Morgan made that I didn’t feel was a reach was when, in an ironic twist, he kicked off Saturday’s Day 3 festivities by taking Brooks’ Texas teammate TE Ja’Tavion Sanders at the top of Round 4. I say ironic because I ranked Sanders TE4, as low as anyone I am aware of, and No. 99 overall. The NFL apparently agreed, with Carolina taking him No. 101.
Sanders’ uninspiring gamut of athletic tests cast doubt on his next-level ceiling within that usage-specific role. The good: an 82nd-percentile 4.69 forty and 91st-percentile 10-yard split. The bad: A 53rd-percentile broad jump. The ugly: A 28th-percentile vertical and 2nd-percentile bench press showing at 36th-percentile weight.
The speed and acceleration are apparent on Sanders’ tape. They’re going to have to carry the day for Sanders to be a difference-maker at the next level. There is encouraging news on that front. Sanders had some flashy reps on campus scorching up the seam and beating defenders on contested balls.
The area Steve Sarkisian leveraged that speed and acceleration more regularly was scheming Sanders into open areas of the field where he had an opportunity to hit the jets upfield after the catch. Last season, Sanders was a top-5 TE in the FBS in YAC, and, amongst that list, he had the highest aDOT.
Last year, Sanders converted a mediocre 3-of-11 targets 20+ yards downfield, including one-of-three contested targets. Interestingly, this was an area he was better at on his 2022 tape. Where he made up for it last fall was the run-after-the-catch machinations after corralling balls in the intermediate range.
New Orleans Saints | Draft Grade: B-
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
14 | Taliese Fuaga | 17 | OT4 | Oregon State | Darnell Wright | 6056 | 324 | 9.63 |
41 | Kool-Aid McKinstry | 30 | CB5 | Alabama | A.J. Terrell | 5113 | 196 | 7.55 |
150 | Spencer Rattler | 79 | QB6 | South Carolina | Jeff Blake | 6002 | 211 | 4 |
170* | Bub Means | 176 | WR26 | Pittsburgh | Cody Latimer | 6010 | 212 | 9.35 |
175* | Jaylan Ford | 198 | LB15 | Texas | Micah McFadden | 6023 | 239 | 8.3 |
199 | Khristian Boyd | 224 | DL21 | Northern Iowa | Quinton Bohanna | 6023 | 329 | 4.63 |
239 | Josiah Ezirim | 307 | OT24 | Eastern Kentucky | Max Scharping | 6056 | 328 | 8.5 |
Every week in the spring here at FantasyPros, host Joe Pisapia and myself do a mock draft with a rotating panel. I can’t remember the Saints not getting an OT at 1.14 over the past two months. Taliese Fuaga was the pick in most of them. It just made so much sense. It picked itself.
Mickey Loomis, who declined to ingest the crazy pills Terry Fontentot and Dan Morgan were passing out at the divisional pre-draft mixer, instead did the sensible thing while on the clock – submitting a card with Fuaga’s name on it.
Fuaga was a beautiful selection in that he is a safe, ready-to-play, Day 1 starter at New Orleans’ area of biggest need, offensive tackle. Fuaga is a bully with high-octane power. He has hilarious reps wrecking LBs at the second level. The Saints just found a long-term, tone-setting RT solution.
The rest of the draft was more of the same, a precision of well-reasoned picks at strong value that addressed areas of need. CB Kool-Aid McKinstry entered last season as a top-15 prospect, but he was overshadowed by Terrion Arnold‘s leap in 2023, and then his stock took another hit with subpar athletic testing. Even still, the fall to No. 41 was surprising, and Loomis took advantage.
I loved Loomis’ pick of QB Spencer Rattler at 5.150. Following the 2020 season, Rattler would have been the highest-ranked quarterback in this draft class. As a redshirt freshman in 2020, Rattler ranked No. 4 in the FBS with a 92.5 PFF grade. He was a magician, leading the FBS in PFF big-time throws when under pressure and passing grade out of structure.
But the next year, Rattler got the hook for a kid named Caleb Williams. Rattler transferred to South Carolina. He prefers to play out of the shotgun with the field spread and likes to move around to give himself better vantage points.
This was not a good fit behind South Carolina’s poor offensive line that ranked outside the top-100 in PFF pass-blocking grade both years. Suddenly, the rope Rattler’s high-wire game walked across was in a wind tunnel each snap. He struggled to adapt the first 10 games.
But the light came back on for the last three, with Rattler lighting up Tennessee, Clemson and Notre Dame. Though he had very little help in 2023 outside of WR Xavier Legette, Rattler showed that he had made progress as an in-structure quarterback.
Rattler remains frustratingly inconsistent due to his live-by-the-sword-die-by-the-sword aggression. On days he doesn’t see the field well and runs cold, he can be rotten. On days he’s feeling it, watch out. He has enough pocket-passing skill to hang around the league as a backup quarterback for a long time. But if things click for him, he also has starter upside.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Draft Grade: C
Pick | Prospect | Rank | Position | School | Comp | Ht | Wt | RAS |
26 | Graham Barton | 20 | OC1 | Duke | Cody Whitehair | 6052 | 311 | 9.99 |
57 | Chris Braswell | 55 | ED7 | Alabama | Sam Williams | 6030 | 251 | 8.73 |
89 | Tykee Smith | 124 | S9 | Georgia | CJ Gardner-Johnson | 5096 | 202 | 7.43 |
92 | Jalen McMillan | 93 | WR15 | Washington | Tyler Boyd | 6010 | 197 | 8.67 |
125 | Bucky Irving | 186 | RB15 | Oregon | Dion Lewis | 5090 | 192 | 2.23 |
220* | Elijah Klein | 463 | OG28 | UTEP | Nick Broeker | 6037 | 306 | 5.6 |
246 | Devin Culp | 258 | TE15 | Washington | Kenny Yeboah | 6032 | 231 | 8.14 |
Graham Barton was a stud LT the last three seasons in the ACC after starting five games at OC as a freshman for the Blue Devils. A lack of length – Barton’s arms would have tied for shortest among my top-30 OT prospects – is why the NFL worked him out on the interior during the pre-draft process, and why I project him thusly. Whether at OC or OG, Barton will be a standout starter in the NFL for a long time. He also provides OT versatility if needed.
Braswell is what he is: A downhill, attacking OLB. The proof of concept that you don’t want to drop him in coverage is that Nick Saban did not. Braswell is a little stiff, with the one-trick utility. But I was right where the Bucs were with him – I like him for what he is. Braswell brings the speed-to-power fight across the line of scrimmage with a bursty first step. He’s clever, resourceful, and dogged, cycling through counters and shed maneuvers until the bitter end. He turns into a T-800 on the chase.
After all the infrastructure building, near the end of Round 3, the Bucs took WR Jalen McMillan. McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk played 20 full games together the last two years at Washington. Let’s do a stat comparison of those 20 games.
Player A stats: 124 catches, 1,657 yards, 14 TD
Player B stats: 68 catches, 1,210 yards, 9 TD
Polk is Player B, who the Patriots took No. 37. Player A, McMillan, went 55 slots later.
In 2022, when McMillan was healthy, McMillan had four more catches and two more TD than Rome Odunze, while Odunze finished with 47 more yards. Ja’Lynn Polk was the clear and distant WR3 on that team.
Things changed this past September when McMillan suffered a knee injury against Michigan State. It would be two months before McMillan would play a full game again – he missed all or the vast majority of the eight ensuing games. McMillan attempted to gut it out and return for games against Stanford and Oregon in October. He was forced to exit quickly when the knee wasn’t reacting well to cutting.
It wouldn’t be until November 25 against Wazzu when McMillan finally did return – he clearly wasn’t 100 percent, but he still caught five balls. Washington didn’t have a choice but to make Polk the WR2 when McMillan went down. When McMillan was healthy, there was no debate. Things returned to normal, and Polk returned to his regular afterthought role.
McMillan is an efficient, reliable, high-volume big slot when healthy. Why has McMillan been undersold this process? Because analysts are basing their assessments off his 2023 tape when he was hurt. Judge the 2022 stuff when he was healthy.
McMillan’s 2022 tape shows a devilishly clever route-running slot. I particularly appreciate his work in zone, where he gets to open grass immediately and flashes to the quarterback. In man, he has a knack for baiting a defender’s balance one way to go the other. McMillan is a build-up speed guy, but he has downfield utility. He tracks the ball well and has soft hands.
McMillan’s game is built off the threat of that juice along with his ability to quickly throttle down and work back to the ball. He has good hands and regularly speared balls outside his frame in college.
He’s a capped-ceiling, slot-only guy. But McMillan is going to catch a ton of balls in the NFL and keep the chains moving.
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