With the NFL Draft dust settling we can finally decide which rookies landed in good positions for fantasy football and which ones did not. The NFL season always brings some surprises, but as we sit here several months away, these are the rookies with the worst landing spots.

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NFL Draft Worst Landing Spots

QB Michael Penix to the Atlanta Falcons

There wasn’t a single pick in the draft as confounding as Atlanta’s decision to take Michael Penix with the eighth overall pick. Owner Arthur Blank had made it clear he wanted to see the team return to their previous winning ways. Regardless of how highly you rank Penix, he does not help you win in the near future unless you have buyer’s remorse on their massive free agency splash for Kirk Cousins.

Perhaps the Falcons are used to wasting top-10 picks on offensive players after incorrectly utilizing Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson over the previous three years, or perhaps Raheem Morris spent too much time around the Rams’ ideology of ‘F*** them picks’ for him to know what to do with a round one selection. Either way, this selection registers as a complete zero for the Falcons’ offense and is a massive hit to Penix’s stock that would otherwise have been surprisingly high given his last rise up draft boards.

Penix is a very different quarterback to Kirk Cousins and projecting how this offense might look with him under center is incredibly difficult, given it could be multiple years before we see it. The Falcons have had a great offseason, but they can’t seem to get out of their own way at times.

When I watched Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix, and Spencer Rattler at the Senior Bowl, I didn’t see two guys who should be drafted early in the first round and one guy who should be drafted in the fifth round.

I saw three guys who should have been drafted in the third round.

— Mike Maher (@mikeMaher) April 27, 2024

WR Rome Odunze to the Chicago Bears

In dynasty formats, this is by far a bad landing spot. One can argue with 32-year-old Keenan Allen on an expiring contract and DJ Moore with only two years left on his contract that this is an excellent spot for Rome Odunze. In redraft or best ball formats, however, Odunze’s rookie season ceiling is somewhat capped by the competition he faces from an excellent surrounding cast that the Bears have given Caleb Williams. When Justin Fields entered the league he had Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney and Marquise Goodwin to throw to, as well as a very porous offensive line.

Williams finds himself with two receivers coming off career years and a wide receiver that could have been the first one drafted if he had come out a year ago. Odunze will have spike weeks because he is a very talented player, but will he be the first or second choice on plays? Both Allen and Moore earned targets at a rate of over 2.3 yards per route run in 2023, so something has to give and the rookie is most likely the one to struggle to earn snaps the majority of the season.

TE Brock Bowers to the Las Vegas Raiders

The Brock Bowers slide felt inevitable as he became a non-storyline throughout the NFL offseason due to lingering hamstring issues. Without athletic testing, Bowers generated less buzz than he saw over the last few years. A player once viewed as prolific wasn’t at the forefront of conversations in the way he could have been. It’s also possible some NFL teams have wisened up to the lack of value in taking a first-round tight end after seeing players like Kyle Pitts, Hayden Hurst, Noah Fant, David Njoku, OJ Howard and Evan Engram all either take a long time to return value or never do so.

The Raiders deserve praise for sticking to their board and taking the best player available, something many teams preach but rarely do when on the clock. Now they find themselves with the welcome problem of having two talented tight ends to accommodate. Michael Mayer was viewed by some as the TE1 heading into the 2023 NFL Draft. Like many rookie tight ends, he didn’t hit the ground running. The expectation is he could take the leap in 2024, now with having to share snaps with Bowers.

With the Raiders potentially ping-ponging back and forth between Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell at quarterback things might be less fruitful for either tight end. Minshew ranked 21st in passing expected points added (EPA) among QBs with 50+ pass attempts, while O’Connell ranked 34th. Minshew ranked 34th in completion rate with O’Connell 38th. Given the above-average receiving options in Las Vegas but the substandard quarterback play, Bowers will have to fight for every target. He might end up mainly seeing designed plays as a way to get on the field early, but little else until deep in the season.

Did the Raiders have Brock Bowers in their queue and get auto-drafted?

— John Hansen (@Fantasy_Guru) April 26, 2024

More Fantasy Football Draft Advice

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• Hoppen’s Must-Have Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium)

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