FantasyPros Mock Draft: Rounds 20 & 21 Recap

Kevin Quackenbush will strive to prove that his superb minor league stats were not fraudulent

As we move through 21 rounds of this inaugural FantasyPros Correspondents Draft, we have finally found a place for those players that should not be on Opening Day rosters but are being stored for the end of the season. What any owner needs to look at when picking a player who will either be on “NA” or the bench for a couple of months is the depth that you have at the position and if the player is worth the risk to wait on. It is great to scoop up a top prospect, but if they are only going to be on a major league roster for the last month or so of the season, you need to be able to see if the risk of holding that player is worth whatever production they may have.

Remember to keep track of live updates of the mock draft @thezman2010 on Twitter or at #FPMockDraft.

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Read below for picks and analysis for the 20th and 21st round of the 2016 FantasyPros MLB Mock Draft.

20.01 Rob Klein – Josh Harrison (UTIL – PIT)

Harrison was a fantasy darling in 2014 batting .315 with 13 home runs and 18 steals while playing a variety of positions. Last season, he was hampered by a slow start followed by thumb injury that bothered him for most of the season.

He still finished with a .287 batting average and 10 steals in only 114 games. Harrison will see lots of playing time this season with the departures of second baseman Neil Walker and third baseman Aramis Ramirez and will be able to be a super sub in Rob’s lineup with the ability to play in several positions.

C-McCann 1B- Cabrera 2B-Phillips SS-Marte 3B-Machado OF- Cruz OF-Gonzalez OF-Puig UT-Teixeira UT-Pillar UT-Parra P- Hamels P-Lester P-Verlander P-Familia P-Britton P-Shields P-Fiers P-Estrada BE-Harrison BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

20.02 John Aubin – Mitch Moreland (1B/OF – TEX)

The pick of Moreland does not bring a ton of upside for John but it will give him depth at 1B and a strong bat off of the bench. Moreland shattered his full-season career highs for batting average and RBI and had his best season in 2015. He has proven to be a solid veteran slugger who can be an injury risk but also is a reliable fantasy power producer when in the lineup.

C-Mesoraco 1B-Gonzalez 2B-Odor SS-Boegarts 3B-Bryant OF-McCutchen OF-Yelich OF-Pederson UT-Duffy UT-Granderson UT-Moreland P- Fernandez P-Bumgarner P-Kimbrel P-Richards P-Matz P-Rodriguez P-Corbin P-Ross BE-Vizcaino BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

20.03 Matthew Davis – Andrew Heaney (SP – LAA)

Heaney follows Matthew’s approach at stacking young starting pitchers that are progressing in the right direction to throw for 200-plus innings. Heaney doesn’t carry the massive upside in strikeouts but if you already have a rotation built with pitchers with a high strikeout ceiling, Heaney won’t kill you in that department or in the 20th round. Heaney started 18 games last season for the Halos and will make his first full go at a 30-plus start season in 2016.

Trevor Bauer’s home/road splits were mentioned earlier and the same bodes for Heaney since he had much more success on the road with a 2.77 ERA. The shocking part is that his home park in Anaheim ranked 29th in ballpark factor (0.861 runs) via ESPN (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor). Matthew expects Heaney to be a consistent starter who will throw for solid ratios, making him a viable option as a back-end starter in mixed leagues every five days.

C- 1B-Rizzo 2B-Murphy SS-Seager 3B-Longoria OF- Pollock OF-Upton OF-Gomez UT-Cespedes UT-Soler UT-Holliday P-Ross P-Salazar P-Martinez P-Rondon P-Rodon P-Boxberger P-Teheran P-Severino BE-Bauer BE-Heaney BE- BE- BE- BE-

20.04 Chris Zolli – Drew Storen (RP – TOR)

The Blue Jays were just one step away from the World Series in 2015 and may be just as good in 2016; adding their potential closer in the 20th round is a sound decision for that reason and Storen will be the third closer for my team. Notice that I said potential closer, as the Jays have not decided if Storen or 21-year-old flamethrower Roberto Osuna will close games north of the border. When the Blue Jays traded Ben Revere to the Nationals for Storen, they lucked out in adding a reliever with a 40-save season in his past and 10.96 strikeouts per nine in 2015.

Even while sharing the closer duties with Jonathan Papelbon for the backend of the 2015 season in Washington, Storen finished with a 3.44 ERA, and 2.79 FIP, to go with 29 saves and 1.11 WHIP. Posting K:BB ratios over four for the last two seasons, and a 22.4% K%-BB% in 2015, shows that Storen is the power arm that the Blue Jays need in the backend of their bullpen, giving the opportunity to solidify what was a shaky part of the 2015 roster.

Even better for fantasy owners considering Storen is that he had an inflated .301 BABIP in 2015, only a 71.2% strand rate, and had his best softly hit ball percentage since 2011, 24.3%. The fact that he is not yet the closer for the Blue Jays will scare fantasy owners away from Storen, providing huge value with 35 or more saves in his 2016 outlook.

C-Schwarber 1B-Fielder 2B-Kipnis SS- 3B-Arenado OF- Marte OF-Martinez OF-Cain UT-Polanco UT-Gardner UT-Fowler P- Darvish P-McCullers P-Tanaka P-Street P-Papelbon P-Hendricks P-Kennedy P-Cashner BE-Nelson BE-Storen BE- BE- BE- BE-

20.05 David Marcillo – David Hernandez (RP – PHI)

With the Phillies trading away closer Ken Giles, new Phillies reliever Hernandez has been tabbed for the closer role. While the Phillies likely won’t win too many games in 2016, Hernandez is a solid relief pitcher, and his one-year contract will make him likely want to prove his value to other teams.

C-Posey 1B-Votto 2B-Zobrist SS-Desmond 3B-Carpenter OF- Stanton OF-Calhoun OF- Conforto UT-Hosmer UT-Morales UT-Myers P- Harvey P-Gray P-Ramos P-Pineda P-Iglesias P-Smyly P-Happ P-Hernandez BE-Rodriguez BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

20.06 Jamie Mellor – Dellin Betances (RP – NYY)

Jamie debated this pick for awhile, and it came down to Betances or offensive depth players at one of a few positions, but ultimately it was fairly hard to pass up a reliever who excels in third categories — 1.50 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 131 strikeouts were his totals from 2015. Even if he doesn’t match those, 2.00-2.50 ERA with a 1.00-1.15 WHIP and 100 Ks is still a better option than most of the starting pitchers left. This will not be a sexy pick and it is all but certain that at least one player left on the board will break out where hindsight will make this pick look foolish.

C-Vogt 1B-Freeman 2B-Wong SS-Correa 3B-Rendon OF- Betts OF-Braun OF-Eaton UT-Davis UT-Bruce UT-Baez P- Price P-Hernandez P-Wainwright P-Davis P-Quintana P-Casilla P-Lackey P-Smith BE-Betances BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

20.07 Matt Terelle – Victor Martinez (1B – DET)

Martinez is coming off of a disappointing 2015 season. Many of his struggles can be attributed to the fact he rushed back into action after offseason knee surgery and it he could just never get on track. He heads into 2016 fully healthy and ready to hit in the middle of a strong Detroit offense.

He is only one year removed from an excellent 2014 season where he was the runner-up for MVP. At this point of the draft he’s worthy of taking a flier on.

C-Perez 1B-Duda 2B-Dozier SS-Reyes 3B-Donaldson OF- Bautista OF-Blackmon OF-Heyward UT-Sano UT-Ellsbury UT-Peralta P- Grienke P-Liriano P-Wacha P-Rosenthal P-Samardzija P-Doolittle P-Hammel P-Garcia BE-Martinez BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

20.08 Eric Townsend – Matt Moore (SP – TB)

Moore has had a rough two years, with Tommy John surgery in 2014, and a rough return to the majors last year (5.43 ERA, 1.54 WHIP in 63 IP). However, 2016 should be the first full season for Moore post-injury, and could result in him bouncing back to his 2013 levels when he was considered a future Rays’ ace. Expecting 2013 stats (3.29 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 8.56 K/9) is unlikely, but a 3.75 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and a K/9 of around 8.00, with ~180 IP as an inning cap is possible, and in the 20th round that baseline with upside is well worth the pick.

C-d’Arnaud 1B-Abreu 2B-Altuve SS-Tulowitzki 3B-Moustakas OF-Ramirez OF-Reddick OF-Burns UT-Ortiz UT-Pujols UT-DeShields Jr. P- Cole P-deGrom P-Jansen P-Kazmir P-Ziegler P-Gonzalez P-Cishek P-Gausman BE-Moore BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

20.09 Kerry Kauffman – Aaron Nola (SP – PHI)

Nola showed great potential as a 22-year-old rookie last season with the Phillies. He went 6-2 with a solid 3.59 ERA in 13 starts. He allowed 74 hits in 77 2/3 innings, but walked just 19 and struck out 68.

While there isn’t a large sample size at the Major League level, Nola will be firmly entrenched in the Phillies’ starting rotation, as their rebuilding process continues. Doubling his overall numbers from last season is not out of the question, making Nola a low-risk, high-reward selection in the 20th round.

C-Gattis 1B-Encarnacion 2B-Cano SS-Andrus 3B-Frazier OF-Kemp OF-Revere OF-Choo UT-Gordon UT-Zimmerman UT-Herrera P-Kershaw P-Keuchel P-Giles P-Zimmermann P-McHugh P-Perkins P-Wood P-Nola BE-Wieters BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

20.10 Daniel Marcus – Tyler Glasnow (SP – PIT)

Glasnow won’t start the year with the Pirates, but now that Dan has filled his starting lineup he turns to a stash on his bench. Glasnow should enter the rotation in late May or early June, and he is one of the best arms in the minor leagues. This will also provide Dan some insurance in case of injury to one of his starting pitchers in the middle of the season.

C-Lucroy 1B-Goldschmidt 2B-Russell SS-Kang 3B-Franco OF- Springer OF-Jones OF-Hamilton UT-Dickerson UT-Santana UT-Schoop P- Sale P-Carrasco P-Allen P-Robertson P-Odorizzi P-Ventura P-McGee P-Rodriguez BE-Glasnow BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

20.11 Roy Widrig – Neil Walker (2B – NYM)

He’s not named Ben Zobrist, but he might as well be. In 2015 Zobrist put up a WRC+ of 118. So did Walker.

For home runs, Walker hit 16 to Zobrist’s 13. Zobrist scored seven more runs, but also drove in 15 fewer runs. The difference between the two comes down to their draft positions, with Zobrist going in the ninth round to Walker falling to the 20th. Much of Zobrist’s value comes from his “ability” to slot into a fantasy lineup as a 2B or OF, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Walker pick up some extra eligibility by this summer.

C-Martin 1B-Davis 2B-LeMahieu SS-Crawford 3B-Seager OF-Harper OF-Pence OF-Grichuk UT-Buxton UT-Park UT-Walker P-Arrieta P-Syndergaard P-Archer P-Melancon P- Stroman P-Miller P-Tolleson P-Maeda BE-Chen BE- BE- BE- BE- BE

20.12 Gavin Tramps – Nathan Eovaldi (SP – NYY)

Of the 64 fastest pitches thrown in the MLB last year, 63 were from Aroldis Chapman and one was a 102.4 mph four-seamer from Eovaldi. In fact, the Yankees’ starter accounted for nine of the next 12 fastest pitches.

Despite the velocity, Eovaldi is not a strikeout merchant, averaging only 7.06 K/9 last year. A combination of the elite velocity with the uptick in his strikeout rate during the second half of last season and the devastating bullpen that the Yankees have assembled, makes Eovaldi an intriguing breakout candidate

C- 1B-Belt 2B-Gordon SS-Lindor 3B-Beltre OF-Trou.t OF-Brantley OF-Trumbo UT-Kinsler UT-Span UT-Piscotty P-Scherzer P-Kluber P-Strasburg P-Cueto P- Chapman P-Walker P-Iwakuma P-Capps BE-Miller BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

21.01 Gavin Tramps – Ender Inciarte (OF – ATL)

Inciarte divides opinion. He looks like an overachiever unlikely to repeat 6 HR, 21 SB and .303 AVG. He has an ADP on Yahoo & NFBC some 50+ picks earlier than drafted here. Gavin particular likes the 90% contact rate and low strikeout rate (10.3% = top 10 of qualified hitters).

There are similarities to a young Michael Brantley, although Brantley never struggled as much against left-handed pitching. Inciarte is expected to lead off for the rebuilding Braves and should have plenty of opportunities to help out in the runs, stolen bases and batting average categories.

C- 1B-Belt 2B-Gordon SS-Lindor 3B-Beltre OF-Trout OF-Brantley OF-Trumbo UT-Kinsler UT-Span UT-Piscotty P-Scherzer P-Kluber P-Strasburg P-Cueto P- Chapman P-Walker P-Iwakuma P-Capps BE-Miller BE-Eovaldi BE-Inciarte BE- BE- BE-

21.02 Roy Widrig – Joey Gallo (3B/OF – TEX)

The success of this peak hinges on the health of the whole Texas Rangers’ roster. Gallo will spend his Spring Training working out at third base, but an injury to Josh Hamilton will put him in the starting lineup, as would one to Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder or Mitch Moreland. At this point in the draft, a player’s ceiling is key – and no one left has a higher ceiling – or launch angle – than Joey Gallo.

21.03 Daniel Marcus – Clay Buchholz (SP – BOS)

Owning Buchholz will likely be a maddening experience, but Dan has his rotation set, so he has the luxury to use Buchholz only when matchups indicate he is a good play and when he is actually on the mound as opposed to DL. The performance has been up and down, but as of late, more of the up. This late in the draft, Dan likes him as a good flier.

21.04 Kerry Kauffman – Brad Miller (2B/OF – TB)

Brad Miller is a solid choice for infield and outfield depth. The 26-year old hit a respectable .258 with 11 home runs, 46 RBI and 13 stolen bases in 144 games. He should play nearly every for Tampa Bay and numbers in the neighborhood of .260 with 12 home runs, 50 RBI and 10 stolen bases can be expected. Miller can be a spot fantasy league starter and a good late round draft choice.

21.05 Eric Townsend – Jarrod Dyson (OF – KC)

Dyson is mainly good for one thing, his speed. Dyson has had 26+ stolen bases every season for the last four years, despite his maximum ABs being 292 back in 2012. Playing time is the biggest concern for the Royals’ outfielder, but the potential for a full season of the speedster is too much to pass up in the 21st round.

While another year of a .260 AVG, 30 R and 30 SB line is more likely, a full campaign could result in Dyson being in the top five in SB, with 50+ being possible, as he led the league last year (for those with 20 or more attempts) in SB% at 89.7. As a backup OF, that’s plenty of upside.

C-d’Arnaud 1B-Abreu 2B-Altuve SS-Tulowitzki 3B-Moustakas OF-Ramirez OF-Reddick OF-Dyson UT-Ortiz UT-Pujols UT-DeShields Jr. P- Cole P-deGrom P-Jansen P-Kazmir P-Ziegler P-Gonzalez P-Cishek P-Gausman BE- Moore BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-

21.06 Matt Terelle – Logan Forsythe (2B – TB)

Forsythe was given his first chance to play full time in 2015 and responded well. He posted careers highs across the board with a .281 batting average, 17 home runs, 68 RBI and 69 runs scored.

As a bonus he also qualifies at 1B, so he allows some flexibility from the bench. He should be able to improve on his numbers heading into 2016 as he embarks on his third season in Tampa.

21.07 Jamie Mellor – Adam Lind (1B – SEA)

Lind is a 20 HR, solid average player on a team that will probably be better this season (thus possibly more opportunities for runs and RBIs) and serves as a steady player to back Freeman up, which gives Jamie a little more peace of mind.

21.08 David Marcillo – Nathan Karns (SP – SEA)

Karns isn’t an ace, but he’s a solid pitcher moving to a great pitcher’s park. He finished 2015 with a solid 3.67 ERA and 8.88 K/9. He should be good for around 10 wins and a high 3s ERA, not bad for Round 21.

21.09 Chris Zolli – Kevin Quackenbush (RP – SD)

I began scouting pitchers around 2011 or 2012 and two guys intrigued me as I started my analysis; one was then-Reds flamethrower Brad Boxberger and the other was Quackenbush with the Padres (and not just for his amazing name). Just as Boxberger had found his way in Tampa, I saw a similar path for Quackenbush, who demolished every minor league level possible while racking up 11.91 strikeouts per nine, a 1.03 WHIP and a 1.20 ERA in 201 2/3 minor league innings. Sadly for my love of the Quacken, Craig Kimbrel came to San Diego in 2015 and with that came an opportunity lost and a 4.01 ERA in 58 1/3 innings for the young flamethrower Quackenbush.

This season, though, Quackenbush should take the closer’s role in San Diego and prove that his minor league statistics were not a fluke. Maybe he still averages three or more walks per nine again in 2016, but he will improve on his 69.7% strand rate, .291 BABIP and 8.95 strikeouts per nine. There are two closers that will break out to be huge names in 2016, Quackenbush and Arodys Vizcaino with the Braves; I am glad that I was able to get the one with the higher upside later in the draft.

21.10 Matthew Davis – Jean Segura (SS – ARI)

Segura busted out in his rookie campaign back in 2013 but hasn’t been able to get back to that level in the past two seasons. Segura had traumatic personal issues occur that could make any player take a step back. After three full seasons, Segura averaged 588 plate appearances and nearly 30 stolen bases (29.6).

At 25 years of age, all of Segura’s speed is there and his experience will mold him into understanding the art of stealing bases. RosterResource currently has Segura slotted to hit second, which puts him between A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt. I expect Segura to carry a batting average around .265-.270 while carrying immense upside in the runs (90+) and stolen base (30+) categories.

Segura’s current NFBC ADP is 197 but I was able to land him with the 250th pick. My hope for Segura is that he shows up to spring training with a smile on his face, while embracing his new journey in Arizona.

21.11 John Aubin – Lucas Giolito (SP – WAS)

Giolito will not make the Nationals coming out of Spring Training but will be on the club at some point in the season. John is using one of his NA spots to stash Giolito until he makes his debut. This stash could pay dividends similar to fantasy owners who made a spot for Noah Syndergaard last season despite starting the year in Triple-A.

21.12 Rob Klein – Jerad Eickhoff (SP – PHI)

This is a good point in the draft to add a couple of young promising starting pitchers to Rob’s pitching staff. Eickhoff ended the 2015 season with two very impressive 10 strikeout performances, one against Washington and the other against the Mets.

In eight starts in 2015, he had 49 strikeouts in 51 innings with a 2.65 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He is worth a shot at this stage of the draft.

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Chris Zolli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him @thezman2010.

MLB and third baseman Aramis Ramirez home/road splits were mentioned earlier and the same bodes for Heaney since he had much more success on the road with a 2.77 ERA. The shocking part is that his home park in Anaheim ranked 29th in ballpark factor (0.861 runs) via ESPN (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor will close games north of the border. When the Blue Jays traded Ben Revere will put him in the starting lineup, as would one to Adrian Beltre or Mitch Moreland and the other was Quackenbush with the Padres (and not just for his amazing name). Just as Boxberger had found his way in Tampa, I saw a similar path for Quackenbush, who demolished every minor league level possible while racking up 11.91 strikeouts per nine, a 1.03 WHIP and a 1.20 ERA in 201 2/3 minor league innings. Sadly for my love of the Quacken, Craig Kimbrel and Paul Goldschmidt

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Chris Zolli

@thezman2010

Chris Zolli is a featured writer at FantasyPros, providing unique insights and in-depth analysis.