11 Early Overvalued Players (Fantasy Football)

Feb 22, 2017

Sammy Watkins has fooled owners for too many years into drafting him early

Last week, we asked a few pundits to go through our early consensus to name who they felt were undervalued. Naturally, we wanted to make sure all those overvalued guys didn’t get left out so they wouldn’t feel lonely.

It may be early, but it doesn’t hurt to start evaluating how the consensus looks and that’s what our featured experts have done below.

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Q1. What RB is the most overvalued in our early consensus rankings?

LeGarrette Blount (RB – NE): RB20
“We’re going to have a much clearer picture of LeGarrette Blount’s 2017 situation by the time that most leagues go to draft, but, I think that expecting him to deliver RB2 numbers next year is a bit lofty. He’s coming off an outstanding season in both fantasy and reality, but his 18 TDs are in for an obvious regression. He cooled off significantly in December, after turning 30, logged extra playoff carries and had a YPC under 4 this season. Even if he’s in New England, he’s bound for a lesser role… and on another offense, there is no guarantee of workload.”
Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)

DeMarco Murray (RB – TEN): RB6
“While I certainly consider DeMarco Murray a RB1 going into next season, I would be hesitant to take him as the 6th off the board (in non-PPR). He is creeping up on 30 and Derrick Henry just might be one of the best backup RB in the league. Looking this early at the 2017 draft board I see these potential red flags to a RB I would rather be getting a bit later.”
Sean Koerner (STATS)

Spencer Ware (RB – KC): RB15
“Ware is too high for me at No. 15, as he’s 33rd on my list. Ware had a hot start to his season, but wore down as the year went on. He had more than 18 carries just once after Week 6, and he scored two total touchdowns in his final eight games. The Chiefs will almost certainly add a running back this offseason, and that player will eat into Ware’s workload.”
Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

Kenneth Dixon (RB – BAL): RB26
“Dixon is coming off a rookie season in which he underwhelmed, so much so that the team is talking about adding another back to the rotation. Terrance West got the valuable red-zone carries and looks primed to do so again. For a team that led the league in drop backs, Dixon’s 41 targets isn’t anything to write home about considering Terrance West saw more and so did Kyle Juszczyk and that is just out of the backfield. Even during the six games down the stretch, the Louisiana Tech alum averaged 9.6 fantasy points a game in standard leagues which would rank 30th among RBs in points per game.”
Anthony Staggs (Pyromaniac)

Q2. What WR is the most overvalued in our early consensus rankings?

Sammy Watkins (WR – BUF): WR13
“With a new offense, and an unclear quarterback situation, I don’t plan to make 2016’s mistake again on Sammy Watkins (WR14). Sure, he flashed talent again in 2016 but he battled the injuries that have plagued him throughout his career and is coming off another (admittedly minor) surgery. In eight tries, he posted one 100 yard game and scored twice. He’d need both growth, and a full season to justify being drafted as the 14th receiver off the board. I’m not ready to bet on either.”
Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)

Demaryius Thomas (WR – DEN): WR19
“I have Thomas as my 29th-ranked fantasy receiver for 2017, so No. 19 is too rich for my blood. Thomas has averaged 5.5 touchdowns per season the past two years, and that’s unlikely to improve with the quarterback dilemma the Broncos currently have. Thomas also dropped a lot of passes in 2016, which was especially painful because he had fewer opportunities than he did with Peyton Manning.”
Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

Donte Moncrief (WR – IND): WR24
“Moncrief’s hype train apparently never got derailed last season with early ranks putting him as the 24th receiver. All this hype for a guy who averaged just over 3 catches for 34 yards a game last season despite being targeted as the second option in the passing game when active. Donte’s saving grace last season was he caught seven touchdowns in just nine games, but when you look at the rate, it is unsustainable. The former Ole Miss standout caught a touchdown pass on 23% of his receptions while his career norms prior to this year were a shade under 10%. Moncrief’s touchdowns accounted for 57% of his total fantasy points last season, the highest percentage among the top-100 receivers in that time.”
Anthony Staggs (Pyromaniac)

Antonio Brown (WR – PIT): WR1
“I think anyone drafting this early shouldn’t consider Antonio Brown the auto-draft 1st WR off the board. Not as long as any Big Ben potentially retiring rumors continue to swirl. I think ultimately Big Ben will return for at least another season but factoring even the small chance he does – and how much that would negatively impact AB’s stock, has to be considered at least.”
Sean Koerner (STATS)

Q3. What QB is the most overvalued in our early consensus rankings?

Matt Ryan (QB – ATL): QB5
“Ryan will surely be overvalued this year. He is obviously surrounded by a ton of weapons and should still put up solid numbers again this year. However, he is surely due for a pretty big regression in passing TDs back to the 28-32 range. Ryan isn’t able to help counter that with many rushing stats to speak of and not to mention – will be playing under a new offensive coordinator this year. I see him failing to meet the lofty expectations he set with a career year nine seasons into his career.”
Sean Koerner (STATS)

“No doubt it will be unpopular to rain on the reigning MVP’s parade, but I’m anxious about a change in offense in Atlanta. It took Matt Ryan some time to adjust to Kyle Shanahan’s offense and his departure suggests that more change is on the horizon. Atlanta will deploy a similar offense in 2017, but adjustments will be necessary all the same. I’m concerned that Atlanta takes a step back on offense this year, and specifically that it impacts their QB’s production.”
Jon Collins (Fantasy Sports LR)

Kirk Cousins (QB – WAS): QB11
“I didn’t have much of a disparity at quarterback, with the greatest margin for a relative player being No, 11 to 16. I have Cousins 16th because he could lose his top two receivers, Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, to free agency. There’s also a chance that the 49ers trade two first-round picks to the Redskins for Cousins if he’s franchised. Going to San Francisco would be detrimental to Cousins’ fantasy stock because of the poor talent there.”
Walter Cherepinsky (WalterFootball)

Derek Carr (QB – OAK): QB9
“Derek Carr is a hair overvalued in my book. As in with all quarterbacks it is really splitting hairs, I believe he belongs a tier lower than most, however. 43.4% of Carr’s fantasy points came from touchdown passes last season, a number significantly higher than average for a top-40 quarterback. With touchdown production so fickle year-to-year and passing yardage being more stable, I will throw out a bet on Carr going before I am ready to take him. Despite an excellent season last year, Carr finished 13th among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. With no real rushing upside, any hit to Carr’s passing touchdowns can cause a big tumble from a back-end QB1 to a midrange QB2.”
Anthony Staggs (Pyromaniac)

Thanks to the experts for evaluating the current consensus. Be sure to follow them on Twitter for advice this offseason. You can also check out our podcast below for fantasy football discussions all year long.

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