Last week, I analyzed how starting pitchers performed after competing in the World Baseball Classic compared to their previous season. While some indications of skills decline and slight injury risk were present, the effects were minimal — and nothing that would influence my Draft Day decisions.
A reader requested a more detailed breakdown of 2017 fantasy relevant pitchers who have competed in past WBCs.
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As a man of the people, I was happy to oblige. I identified eight starters slated for this year’s Classic who have participated in previous years. The data includes Yu Darvish’s results in Japan as well as both of Edinson Volquez’ WBC years as he’s preparing for his third tournament. Here is a look at how active starting pitchers performed after competing in the World Baseball Classic:
| Pitcher | Age | Velocity | K% | BB% | GB% | xFIP | DL Days |
| Bartolo Colon | 33 | -2.4 MPH | -4.9% | -0.4% | -0.7% | 0.73 | 129 |
| Edinson Volquez | 25 | 0 MPH | -3.0% | 3.6% | -1.0% | 0.75 | 140 |
| Edinson Volquez | 29 | -1.0 MPH | -3.3% | -3.1% | -2.7% | -0.14 | 0 |
| Felix Hernandez | 23 | -0.7 MPH | 1.8% | -2.0% | 1.3% | -0.46 | 0 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | 25 | -0.5 MPH | 1.1% | -2.7% | 8.3% | -1.13 | 15 |
| Johnny Cueto | 23 | -0.5 MPH | -2.8% | -0.6% | 3.0% | 0.20 | 15 |
| Marco Estrada | 29 | -1.0 MPH | -2.1% | 1.0% | 4.5% | 0.12 | 64 |
| Yovani Gallardo | 27 | -1.0 MPH | -5.1% | -0.9% | 1.5% | 0.19 | 76 |
| Yu Darvish | 22 | N/A | -3.4% | 0.6% | N/A | N/A | 20 |
Here are the average and median changes as a group.
| Measure | Age | Velocity | K% | BB% | GB% | xFIP | DL Days |
| Average | 26.2 | -0.89 MPH | -2.4% | -0.5% | 1.8% | 0.03 | 51 |
| Median | 25.0 | -0.85 MPH | -3.0% | -0.6% | 1.4% | 0.16 | 20 |
A quick glance at the average and median changes reveal a shift in the group’s skills. However, the results from a run prevention standpoint remained relatively consistent. Pitchers combated a drop in strikeouts with a slightly improved walk rate and an increase in groundballs.
Collectively, they witnessed their velocity drop by nearly one mile-per-hour which helps explain the noticeably lower strikeout rate. Regression analysis reveals that velocity explains 21% of strikeout rates since 2006.
If you buy into the decreased strikeout rate, a 3% drop will net roughly 20-25 fewer strikeouts over the course of 180 innings pitched. Personally, I’m inclined to side with the larger sample size previously presented that demonstrated a 1% decrease in Ks.
Perhaps the most alarming finding is that seven of the nine cases made a trip to the disabled list after pitching in the WBC. As with the skills analysis, I put more weight into the original study of 44 starters than this select bunch. Nonetheless, if you’re risk-adverse, this might help you decide on Draft Day if you find yourself torn between Marco Estrada and Robbie Ray who are going back to back according to our consensus ADP.
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Chris Bragg is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Chris, check out his archive or follow him @loosemoose6.