In competitive leagues, the difference between winning and also-ran status often comes down to sleepers. That is, finding players with underappreciated value, and capitalizing on it. Basically speaking, it’s the Moneyball of fantasy baseball. Are you ready to be the next Billy Beane?
If so, we can help.
Over the next few days, we’ll take a look at some of the sleepers in categories seen in a lot of 5×5 and similarly-styled leagues. This time around, we’re taking a stab at some of the sleepers for stolen bases. Here’s who we like:
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Peraza’s speed has always been evident, as he’s stolen as many as 64 bases in one minor league season (Low-A Rome in 2013). To this point, he’s stolen 24 bases through 79 MLB games, but the biggest things in his way have been shoved aside as well, now. Brandon Phillips finally consented to waive his 10-5 rights — an automatic no-trade clause which kicks in when a player has 10 years of MLB service with five coming with their current team — to be dealt to the Braves. That has opened up a full-time second base gig for Peraza, who split time between shortstop, center field, second base and left field for the Reds last year. In that time frame, he managed to steal 21 bases but was caught 10 times — something that’ll have to improve. But the other thing that has gone well for Peraza has been the development of his on-base skills, as he has career OBP of .343 against a .341 minor-league mark. One thing to be wary of is that it was batting-average driven last year, as he had a .352 OBP but also hit .324 — a mark he’s unlikely to sustain. Even still, he seems to be a good bet for 40 steals and he’s a good bet to be a pretty good player moving forward as a two-time top-100 prospect in Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. This might be the go-go Reds this year. They finished second in baseball last year with 139 steals, have Billy Hamilton on the roster and are in the process of at least a retool, if not rebuild. They’re going to want to manufacture offensive excitement.
Wait, what — a catcher? Per NFBC, Realmuto is going 112th overall and sixth among all catchers, but he gives you some unconventional value in doing so. Most people wouldn’t even realize that Realmuto hit a tidy .303/.343/.428 for the Marlins last year, and they’re probably even less aware that he stole 12 bases. That was the most among all catchers, with only Derek Norris — in other words, almost no chance to repeat as he’s part of a timeshare in Washington — having more than half as many. The next closest after Norris (nine) were Buster Posey and Francisco Cervelli with a half-dozen apiece. So not only did Realmuto hit .300 last year — something only four catchers with at least 200 PA did last year (out of 43) — but he also cornered the market on a super unique stat. If you miss out on Posey (ADP No. 40), Realmuto is a nice consolation prize — six rounds later.
Not only does he do a great Guy Fawkes impersonation — look it up if you must, I’ll wait — but he’s also the prime beneficiary of Brett Lawrie getting released and he can also really hit. He’ll get the first crack at playing time at second base, and if he does well enough there could prompt the White Sox to use Yoan Moncada at third base at the expense of declining veteran Todd Frazier, who could just as easily be traded if he starts the season hot. In 93 games last year, Saladino not only held his own defensively, but hit a respectable .282/.315/.409. In fact, you could say he did a fairly strong Lawrie impersonation (career .261/.315/.419 line) without any of the madness. Oh right, and the stolen bases! Saladino swiped 11 bases in 93 games last season, and like Peraza will be playing on a rebuilding team, perhaps hitting near the top of the order with Adam Eaton out of town, and may benefit from an aggressive base-stealing approach. He’s stolen as many as 39 bases in a minor league season and could approach 30 with even a decent offensive season on the South Side.
Now a lot of people are going to be drafting his counterpart in center field — Travis Jankowski — on the strength of him stealing 30 bases in 131 games last year with a clear starting job on a bad team. Here’s the rub: even in a breakout season — one in which he was worth plus-2.1 fWAR — he still hit just .245/.332/.313 and struck out more than a quarter of the time. Margot, on the other hand, is a two-time top-100 prospect across the board and is coming off stealing 30 bases in 124 games at El Paso last season. Margot hit .304/.351/.426 — which is right in line with his career minor-league marks — at Triple-A last year and has stolen as many as 42 bases in a season down on the farm, and should have the green light to run until his heart’s content once he gets the call. And with more than 120 Triple-A games under his belt, that shouldn’t be too long of a wait. Jankowski faded pretty hard in the second half, posting a .627 OPS and .315 OBP after marks of .370 and .687 respectively in the first half. Even on a bad team — no team is projected to win fewer games this season according to Fangraphs — there will be pressure to get Margot on the field quickly. Buy now, while the gettin’ is good.
Here are some very, very deep sleepers (minor leaguers) to keep an eye on:
Greg Allen (OF – CLE)
Bradley Zimmer (OF – CLE)
Zach Granite (OF – MIN)
Alen Hanson (2B – PIT)
Ozzie Albies (IF – ATL)
Wilmer Difo (SS – WAS)
Sleepers for AVG/OBP
Sleepers for Runs
Sleepers for RBIs
Sleepers for HRs
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Brandon Warne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Brandon, check out his archive and follow him @brandon_warne
