Searching for holds comes with the same pitfalls as chasing saves. The key difference: a much larger supply of middle relievers.
A closer with spectacular peripherals won’t fly under the radar because of a bloated ERA. As long as the team doesn’t ditch him a, reliable contributor won’t get kicked to the curb after one bad month. Nor will a promising young talent derailed by an injury.
Their popularity varies in holds league, but all five of the following players will grow tougher to attain over the following weeks. Even if it’s premature in some cases, consider grabbing them now.
This isn’t the typical middle-relief roundup eyeing future closers. Instead, this column aims to help those in holds (or saves-plus-holds) formats. In some cases, they’re even useful for deep-league managers eyeing a strikeout and ratio boost beyond the obvious names.
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Hidden behind Will Harris, Luke Gregerson, Tony Sipp, Michael Feliz, Chris Devenski, and Ken Giles in the Houston Astros’ loaded bullpen, James Hoyt has quietly compiled 31 strikeouts over 17.1 innings.
Like saves, holds is far from a perfect stat. Despite registering holds in three consecutive outings, he also raised his ERA to 4.08 by relinquishing three runs. With a 37.0 K-BB percentage ranking fourth among relievers with at least 10 innings pitched, the 30-year-old righty also wields a 1.81 xFIP and 1.55 SIERA.
But perhaps he’s not entirely blameless for his .400 BABIP. In 39.2 career major league innings, the righty has yet to induce a single infield fly ball. While opponents struggle to make contact, they have struck their few batted balls with a 44.7 hard-hit rate.
He’s not going to supplant Harris—who leads the Astros with 12 holds—as their primary setup man to Giles. That’s fine. The 42-17 juggernaut, which relies heavily on the bullpen when aces Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers aren’t on the mound, yields plenty of opportunities for everyone.
Hoyt may not positively regress all the way to elite territory, but someone with a strikeout in all but one of his 15 outings is too good to stay saddled with such a high ERA. Buy now before it’s too late.
After picking up a save on Tuesday night, Pat Neshek may receive extra attention in all formats. Those hoping for a Philadelphia Phillies’ closing change should only pounce if the league is deep or they’re desperate for saves. The best-case scenario is probably them handing the 36-year-old veteran the role for a few weeks before trading him away in July.
For now, let’s assume a ninth-inning promotion isn’t on the table. Even if Neshek doesn’t replace Hector Neris, he’ll feature more prominently with Joaquin Benoit on the disabled list.
Surrounded by underwhelming teammates, the right-handed veteran has ceded two runs over 22 innings while posting 21 strikeouts and four walks. A 96.2 percent strand rate cries for regression, and some baseballs will eventually clear the fence if half of his batted balls remains fliers.
That just means buyers should expect his career 2.82 ERA rather than this year’s 0.82 clip. Although the Phillies’ ineptitude leaves the window open for saves, a deadline deal could garner Neshek more hold chances on a contender.
David Phelps allowed 10 runs in April, and most fantasy managers have no patience for faltering middle relievers. He has since, however, rediscovered last year’s dominant form.
Before Wednesday night, the Miami Marlins righty had not allowed an earned run since April 21 or a walk after May 20. Since May 1, he has reduced his ERA from 5.79 to 3.00. He also already has four holds in June.
For better or worse, talks of moving him back to the rotation have yet to materialize. Managers who own him in holds format may prefer the dominant reliever. Yet he would certainly trigger more mainstream recognition as a starter, a role in which he registered a 2.22 ERA and 11.84 K/9 through five turns last year. He’s a notable asset either way, but it behooves Miami to give him another chance in the rotation.
His 7 percent Yahoo Sports ownership rate may be inflated by inactive managers in noncompetitive leagues who didn’t stick around to witness his April struggles. A disappointing showing from Kyle Barraclough—highlighted as someone to drop last week—makes Phelps the top option for holds and the first in line if the erratic A.J. Ramos loses his closing gig.
Although he was already discussed earlier this season, gamers need a refresher course on Jose Leclerc.
After spending nearly a month on the disabled list with an injured finger, the 23-year-old neophyte is owned in just 1 percent of Yahoo leagues. This is perfectly understandable, as most managers are nursing too many wounds to invest a DL spot on a rookie reliever. After returning to pitch a scoreless frame on Saturday, it’s time to grab him back.
The main stat which demanded attention in April: His 21.8 swinging-strike percentage ranks second among all relievers behind Craig Kimbrel. Those whiffs have produced 19 strikeouts in 12.1 innings.
Command was always a problem in the minors, but he surrendered three of his six walks right before landing on the DL. If he regains his early-season dominance, Leclerc will vault back into top-tier territory as one of the Texas Rangers’ primary setup options to closer Matt Bush.
Sergio Romo ties Los Angeles Dodgers teammate Pedro Baez with a team-high seven holds. His 6.41 ERA also towers above their other relievers, which begs the question of why he is continuously trusted to preserve leads.
They certainly have other options before calling Kenley Jansen’s number. Ross Stripling has excelled as a long reliever, and Baez has succeeded in spite of obvious warning flags (4.44 BB/9, .197 BABIP, and a 99.2 strand rate). Since Grant Dayton hasn’t lived up to the hype, Josh Fields looks like their most qualified setup choice.
It wouldn’t be fair to point out Baez’s flaws and then ignore Fields’ perfect strand rate due to drop. He also, however, has 28 strikeouts to five walks alongside his 1.50 ERA. Only Edwin Diaz and Corey Knebel have generated more infield fly balls than Fields, who sports a 25.9 percentage of the easiest batted ball to defend.
Fields would already be owned in all holds leagues with a better role, but he has notched just three holds all season. Take a chance on those circumstances changing.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.