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Rookie Report: Lewis Brinson, Sean Newcomb, Jacob Faria

Rookie Report: Lewis Brinson, Sean Newcomb, Jacob Faria

Each week in this report, I’ll be monitoring the performances of MLB rookies. I will emphasize those rookies who put up especially positive performances, while also taking care to mention rookies who are underperforming expectations. In both cases, I will dig into the underlying stats and attempt the difficult task of projecting forward.

Rookies are typically more unpredictable than their more experienced colleagues, and can, therefore, be a source of great profit in fantasy baseball, or great frustration. Stay tuned to this space every week to find out which newbies should be in the mix for your squad. Check out last week’s Rookie Report to keep up to date on all the hottest youngsters.

Stats are generally current prior to Tuesday’s games, and, as noted in week 3, any quoted Statcast numbers are directly from Baseball Savant.

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Lewis Brinson (OF – MIL)
After a free-swinging start to his minor league career, Brinson improved his plate approach and began to post strikeout rates right around 20% in the high minors. After becoming the second-ranked prospect in the Rangers’ system according to Baseball America, Brinson was traded to the Brewers in the Jonathan Lucroy deal and was ranked their No. 1 prospect heading into the 2017 season. According to the FantasyPros consensus prospect rankings, Brinson was the 18th best prospect, although his lowest slot in the aggregate came from Bobby Sylvester’s top-400 rankings. He profiles as an average to above-average center fielder, and has displayed plus raw power and plus speed. Although he’s dealt with injuries frequently, his Triple-A performance after joining the Brewers in 2016 and to start the 2017 season earned him a call-up over the weekend. Ryan Braun‘s stay on the DL and Keon Broxton’s struggles should afford Brinson plenty of opportunity to play with the big club. Brinson is not without his question marks. Strikeout tendencies have a habit of resurfacing in the majors, he has shown somewhat inconsistent power in the minors, and his stolen base success rate of 70% in the minors since the beginning of 2015 is unspectacular. Still, he has hit 21 homers and stolen 22 bases over his last 623 minor league plate appearances and seems a threat for a 20-20 season in the majors eventually. Keeper and dynasty league owners should be very interested, while redraft owners can take a shot, but should not expect the power-speed combo to blossom right away. This season has seen several hot-starting rookies who cooled significantly thereafter. Cody Bellinger and Ian Happ come to mind, and Brinson is certainly in their class as a prospect. Whether he repeats their pattern remains to be seen. I like Brinson to hit just north of .250 with something like 10 homers and 10 steals if he gets near-everyday playing time. Keep an eye on his strikeouts and the health and effectiveness of Braun and Broxton, as Brinson’s fantasy value may hinge on all three.

Sean Newcomb (SP – ATL)
Immediately behind Brinson at No. 49 in Bobby Sylvester’s prospect rankings, but well below that at No. 63 in the consensus, Newcomb debuted for the Braves on June 10th. The lefty’s profile almost writes itself. Based on his work all the way up the minor-league ladder, Newcomb has shown an ability to miss bats, but also an inability to limit walks. This has typically lead to low ERA marks, but relatively high WHIPs. Newcomb had an eye-popping 11.55 K/9 in Triple-A this year, but an equally noteworthy 5.15 BB/9. Recent history has given us Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow as examples of young pitchers with poor control who cannot suppress runs in their first tastes of the majors. Newcomb does have prototypical size and a nice three-pitch arsenal, so he certainly qualifies as an intriguing prospect, and he proved it with his seven-K, zero-run debut. Having been burned so many times, though, I can’t expect much better than a mid-fours ERA with a damaging WHIP from Newcomb this season. Further, there appears to be no guarantee that Newcomb sticks around once Bartolo Colon is healthy. Long term, if Newcomb can develop command and control over time in the Clayton Kershaw mold, he could certainly be a dynasty asset.

Jacob Faria (SP – TB)
Faria comes from way down the consensus prospect rankings at 145, but again Bobby Sylvester’s rankings were the outlier, this time on the positive end at No. 78. Like Newcomb, Faria demonstrated intriguing strikeout rates in the minors with questionable control. Faria’s strikeout potential seems less certain than Newcomb’s – his K/9 dropped below 9.0 at five different levels – but he has shown less alarming walk problems. This year in his second taste of Triple-A, Faria dominated hitters with a 12.89 K/9 and 15.4% SwStr%. His 3.38 BB/9 represent his best mark since high-A. With Matt Andriese ailing, Faria has earned two starts recently over Jose De Leon, Brent Honeywell, and the aforementioned Snell. Faria has made the most of them, posting 6.1 innings with one run in each, striking out 13 and walking just three. He too has a three-pitch arsenal, although like many Rays’ prospects, he is most known for his changeup. Despite his lack of major league walks, some scouts believe he has below average command. Unfortunately, in the historically prodigious AL East, Faria is probably not worth owning in most mixed leagues, but he certainly can be considered for spot starts against lesser opponents.

Josh Hader (SP – MIL)
Hader was called up on June 10th, and assigned to a bullpen role. The organization has indicated they still like Hader as a starter long-term, but he has long been labelled a bullpen guy by prospect mavens. Hader does struggle with command and control and certainly has this year, posting a 5.37 BB/9, his worst at any stop since 2014. So far he has only made two appearances, from which we can tell very little. We can tell that Hader has averaged over 94 mph on his fastball, which is good for 11th best of any left-handed pitcher in baseball. If he improves his control in the bullpen, he could very well work his way into high-leverage situations for the Brewers behind Corey Knebel and Jacob Barnes. For the moment, most fantasy players can ignore Hader, but when the 34th-ranked prospect in baseball gets a chance to impress his club, owners should monitor closely.


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Andrew Dominijanni is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @ADominijanni.

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