Each week in this report, I’ll be monitoring the performances of MLB rookies. I will emphasize those rookies who put up especially positive performances, while also taking care to mention rookies who are underperforming expectations. In both cases, I will dig into the underlying stats and attempt the difficult task of projecting forward.
Rookies are typically more unpredictable than their more experienced colleagues, and can, therefore, be a source of great profit in fantasy baseball, or great frustration. Stay tuned to this space every week to find out which newbies should be in the mix for your squad. Check out last week’s Rookie Report to keep up to date on all the hottest youngsters.
Stats are generally current prior to Tuesday’s games, and, as noted in week 3, any quoted Statcast numbers are directly from Baseball Savant. By my count, there are 19 rookie starting pitchers currently occupying rotation spots for major league clubs, many of whom have not been covered in previous Rookie Reports. So, this week will be a Starting Pitcher Special! Players presented roughly in order of expected production for the rest of the season.
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Jeff Hoffman (SP – COL)
Hoffman is now the fourth Rockies’ SP to be featured in the Rookie Report. While close to German Marquez, Hoffman was generally considered to be Colorado’s best pitching prospect entering the season. His upside was considered substantial enough for the Blue Jays to select him with the number nine overall pick in the June 2014 draft, despite having had Tommy John surgery on May 14th of that year. After rehabbing his injury, Hoffman threw only 222.2 innings in the minors, debuting for just over 30 innings in the majors last year. Hoffman’s 9.40 K/9 in Triple-A was promising, despite coming along with a 4.02 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He fared poorly in his major league debut, walking almost five batters per nine and striking out just over six. If ever there was a time for the college product to start putting his game together, it would be this year, his second full year back from surgery. With better success (3.68 ERA and 1.18 WHIP) in Triple-A, Hoffman returned to the majors and has made three starts, two of which were on the road. The results have been nothing short of dazzling. Hoffman’s 11.32 K/9 and 0.87 BB/9 underpin a 2.61 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. His 13.4% swinging strike rate (SwStr%) hint that he may be finally harnessing his highly touted stuff. Of some concern is his low 25% GB%, which could spell trouble at Coors Field. Given that his career minor league ground ball rate is closer to 50%, he seems likely to stabilize closer to Jon Gray (career 9.53 K/9, 44.5 GB%) than to any of his other rotation-mates. Of course, Jon Gray owns a 4.76 career ERA, which underscores the risk in owning any Rockies’ pitcher, even one with excellent skills. Tyler Anderson is dealing with a lingering knee injury and is likely to miss at least a start or two, while Jon Gray is targeting a late-June return. This is a case where I believe Hoffman’s skills and pedigree will eventually earn him a stable spot in the rotation. As usual with Rockies, he will be most reliable in his road starts, but he looks poised to have a useful strikeout rate.
Dinelson Lamet (SP/RP – SD)
Lack of viable, healthy major league starters gave the 24-year-old Lamet a shot to start in late May. Lamet features a fastball that averages over 95 mph, good for 11th best among starters with at least 10 innings pitched, and a slider that gets 24.2% whiffs. Add in a few decent changeups, and Lamet cruised to a fantastic 14.4 K/9 with a 15.1% SwStr% in his two starts. Before tonight, June 6th, he also only walked 2.7 per nine, well below his minor league average and his ugly 4.62 mark in Triple-A this year. Tonight’s start, however, showed the dark side of Dinelson. Five walks and seven earned runs in three innings at Arizona brought his ERA up to 6.92. Lamet’s strikeout potential is certainly intriguing, and any pitcher who calls Petco Park home is worth considering, but owners should not expect consistency in ERA or WHIP given his poor control. While flame-throwing fastball/slider pitchers often end up in bullpen roles, San Diego will likely give him every chance to develop his change-up as a reliable third pitch. If he does, and if he continues to exhibit average control, Lamet could become a high-upside streamer in home starts.
David Paulino (SP/RP – HOU)
Considering the Astros’ current success, it’s a bit surprising that they have Brad Peacock, Mike Fiers, and David Paulino in their rotation. At 23, Paulino is not a top-tier prospect and missed some time due to Tommy John surgery, but finally made it to the majors for a spell late last year and has started two games this season. From last year to this year, Paulino seems to have switched to using his slider rather than his curveball as a primary breaking ball. Over his career, his slider has generated more whiffs than the curve (18.4% vs 5.6%) so this adjustment seems wise. Through two starts, Paulino has a 4.66 ERA, but 11.17 K/9, 1.86 BB/9 and a 3.71 xFIP. While innings will be an issue – Paulino has never reached 100 in a single season – he has demonstrated strikeout stuff and passable control, so a low-fours ERA with 1.2-1.3 WHIP is a reasonable expectation to go along with strong chances for wins as long as Joe Musgrove and Charlie Morton remained sidelined. Musgrove seems the closer of the two, but one way or another, Paulino figures to be in line for plenty major league innings going forward.
Eric Skoglund (SP/RP – KC)
After a solid, if unspectacular, minor league career, Skoglund was called up to replace Danny Duffy in the Royals’ rotation. He profiles as a control-first, inning-eating lefty. So far, he has earned the low strikeout part of the control-first profile (7.56 K/9), but not the control part (3.24 BB/9). A low left on base rate and home run per fly ball rate have offset each other to produce a 4.32 ERA. I would bet on a mid-fours ERA for Skoglund, but a higher BABIP than his current .200 will also net a WHIP closer to 1.3 or 1.4. Rolled all together, and he is not an appealing fantasy option, except for AL-only leagues. His 2016 season at Double-A (3.45 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) represents a ceiling for Skoglund, but one he is unlikely to achieve this season.
Ben Lively (SP – PHI)
The only pitch that Ben has to live up to his last name is his fastball. While he only averaged 92 mph in his first start, he was able to generate five whiffs on his 47 fastballs. His primary off-speed offering, the curve, generated but one whiff in 29 pitches. Recording zero strikeouts in seven innings in his debut is nothing to get too alarmed over, but Lively has not demonstrated an ability to put hitters away since 2014 in the Reds’ system. He has shown good control in the minors, as well as a low BABIP since the start of the 2016 season, and unusually high infield fly ball rates at almost every minor league stop. If he can maintain a 45% FB% and 20% IFFB%, Lively could be a surprising source of ERA and WHIP help, but without any appreciable strikeout upside, there is little reward.
Samuel Gaviglio (SP – SEA)
As with most of these rookie hurlers, Gaviglio’s rotation spot came available through injuries. In this case, Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Drew Smyly, and James Paxton have all missed significant time for the Mariners. Gaviglio has a sub-90 mph fastball and no other secondary pitch that generates more than 15% whiffs. His 6.0% SwStr% and 5.48 K/9 reflect his pedestrian repertoire. While Gaviglio has pitched to a 3.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, his 5.44 FIP and 4.36 xFIP suggest he will not keep up that pace. As expected from a low-K pitcher, his minor league ERA figures have been highly BABIP dependent. Gaviglio has maintained a low .235 BABIP thus far, but without a long track record of generating weak contact, we cannot assume any more than a league average BABIP, which pushes him to an ERA closer to 4.5 with a mediocre WHIP and worse strikeout rate. Gaviglio could conceivably go on a Ty Blach-like run, but he should not be on your team.
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Andrew Dominijanni is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @ADominijanni.
