There’s been a movement in recent months that has vaulted Jay Ajayi up draft boards, in both redraft and dynasty. After seeing him post three 200-yard games, it’s easy to understand the reason why fantasy players would want to love him. Instead of just using that information that he’s a legitimate stud, I’m going to do exactly what we’ve been doing all offseason, and that is dissect the player to determine where he should be selected in your fantasy drafts.

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What Almost Happened

If you can recall a time, just over one year ago, the Dolphins tried to acquire a running back. And no, I’m not talking about Arian Foster who wound up on the team. I’m talking about current Broncos running back C.J. Anderson, who was a restricted free agent at the time. It was an offer of $18 million over four years, which would have been one of the biggest running back deals in the NFL. And yes, it was after the Dolphins hired head coach Adam Gase.

Going back to his fall in the NFL Draft, Ajayi had legitimate knee concerns coming out of college. There were teams that said they removed him off their draft board all together, while others said that taking him in the fifth-round isn’t bad if you get one contract out of him. The prognosis was the Ajayi had bone rubbing on bone, which is obviously concerning, and the reason he fell into the fifth-round.

Ajayi didn’t get to play much in his rookie season, running for 187 yards on 49 carries (3.8 yards per carry) with one touchdown while playing third-fiddle behind Lamar Miller and Damien Williams. Even when Miller left, the Dolphins were going to ready to sign Anderson (the Broncos matched his offer sheet) and even went to their fallback option of Foster. He started Week 1 and Ajayi was actually left back at home during their road game because of his attitude about not starting. It ultimately took an injury to Foster, but Ajayi was given his shot.

Opportunity Calls

From that point, Ajayi was someone fantasy players gravitated towards, as Gase was known as a coach who can get the most out of his players. Once he was given the starting job in Week 5, Ajayi struggled versus the Titans totaling just 42 yards on 13 carries, though he did score a touchdown. After that game was when he posted two straight 200-yards performances against the Steelers and Bills, and then followed that up with 111 yards against the Jets. So, during his first four games as a starter, Ajayi totaled 571 yards on 90 carries (6.34 yards per carry) with five touchdowns. Most want to hang on to that, but what he did the ensuing eight games wasn’t quite as impressive.

From Week 10 through Week 17, Ajayi was fantasy’s No. 13 running back, totaling 626 yards on 152 carries (4.12 yards per carry) with two touchdowns. Keep in mind that those numbers include a 32-carry, 206-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Bills (again) in Week 16. I’m not going to remove that game from the sample because that’s part of it, but know that he totaled 61 rushing yards or less in five of the last six weeks, and one of those games was against the San Francisco 49ers, who at the time had eight of the last nine teams to play against them total 130 or more rushing yards.

Looking through Ajayi’s game logs, you can see that he typically dominated the weak run defenses, but struggled against the others. I’ve included the opposing run defenses rank below in the game logs so that you’re able to see it visually.

Narrowing that chart down versus defenses who were in the bottom-eight versus the games against those who were in the top-24, it’s pretty clear where Ajayi had his success.

Most think I’m on a witch hunt with Ajayi, but it’s just like any other player; we must look for warning signs. On top of the injury concerns, he’s schedule-sensitive. That’s like 90 percent of the other running backs in the NFL, so he’s not being singled out. There are a few rare players at the position who can produce in fantasy football almost regardless of game-script because they can do it all (Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, etc.), but Ajayi isn’t one of them.

Offensive Line Woes

Some have pointed to his offensive line not being healthy from Week 10-17 and a large part of his struggles. That was most definitely part of the issue, but that issue has not been resolved. In fact, it may have gotten worse as they traded away Branden Albert, one of the players whose health was important to Ajayi’s success. Instead, they’ll kick out Laremy Tunsil to left tackle and hope he does well, which now leaves a hole at left guard (where Tunsil played last year). It appears they’ll start undrafted free agent Anthony Steen at left guard, who played exactly four snaps in 2016. They’ll also trot Jermon Bushrod again at right guard, who was among the worst run-blockers in the NFL last year. As you can see, the offensive line excuse cannot be used if it wasn’t fixed. It’s likely the reason they brought Anthony Fasano back, as he’s one of the better run-blocking tight ends.

It’s not all bad for Ajayi, though, as he’s one of the few running backs who appears to have no concern over his starting job. He’s also playing for Gase, who contrary to belief, runs the football a lot. The teams that he has coordinated or coached have all finished inside the top-18 in rushing attempts, top-15 in rushing yards, and top-15 in rushing touchdowns. So if you’re looking for positives, Gase is someone who you should gravitate towards.

2017 Outlook

I’m not going to sit here and pretend that a running back who added three 200-yard games to his resume isn’t good or anything, but I’m also not going to automatically assume that makes him special. In fact, he’s not really a special running back, but rather one who takes advantage of his opportunities, and he’s got a big one this year. One last thing you should know, as with most running backs, is that you want a player like Ajayi to have positive game-script, as he struggles in games the Dolphins lose. Once he took over as the starter in Week 5, here are his splits in wins and losses.

Breaking it down a little bit more, you’ll be rooting for a bottom-eight defense in a game that the Dolphins are projected to win in order to get the most out of Ajayi, which appears to be minimal, according to Vegas odds makers. The over/under set for the Dolphins in 2017 is set at 7.5 wins, which means they’re getting equal action on both 7-9 and 8-8.

Will I own any Ajayi in 2017? I won’t avoid him as a running back who’s guaranteed to get a lot of work when healthy, but I also won’t take him over proven commodities who have lower injury risks. It’s been said that if he experiences any pain in the knee that they’ll be more cautious than they’d be with an average player. So when should you consider him in drafts? Looking at the landscape in the mid-second round with guys like Jordan Howard and Todd Gurley is fair, though if you’re looking at that group, I’d much rather have a guy like Michael Thomas or T.Y. Hilton. If you’re in a dynasty, Ajayi is costing around the No. 30 pick in startups, which tells me it’s time to sell high as I’m sure the Dolphins would do the same if given the opportunity.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.