On this week’s Regression Report, let’s focus on a month-long sample of Batting Average On Balls In Play (BABIP), perhaps the most popular regression indicator for hitters, at least in terms of gauging the sustainability of their associated batting average pace. Indeed, BABIP is, by now, almost synonymous with the premise of regression. A player with an abnormally high BABIP is said to have benefited from “batted ball luck,” while a player with a seemingly depressed BABIP seems bound to see those tough hops go his way sooner or later.
Of course, there is no useful league-average BABIP, since each player’s baseline is different depending on their hit and speed tools, but it’s safe to say that the five players here are sporting recent-sample BABIPs so extreme that a certain amount of regression, positive or negative, seems bound to occur. The scope of that regression, and how it effects their fantasy stock going forward, depends on their other peripheral stats. Let’s dig in!
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Note: Statistics are current as of games on Sunday, July 23rd.
Nomar Mazara (OF – TEX) .151 BABIP, last 30 games
It seems like eons ago that Texas outfielder Nomar Mazara was looking like one of the breakout stars of 2017, with his bat coming alive in May to the tune of a .340/.417/.532 slash line across 108 PAs.
That period of excellence was buoyed by an abnormal .400 BABIP, however, and most shrewd fantasy owners knew that regression was looming. And boy, has regression come for Mazara, whose batting average and BABIP (.180 and .198, respectively) have both whipped in the other direction since the start of June.
Mazara’s recent stretch of futility at the dish (.135/.256/.284 over the last 30 days) has his stock about as low as possible in fantasy circles. He has all of six extra-base hits over that span, and 17 total runs and RBI. The batted-ball stats don’t look great (27% soft contact, 49% ground ball rate), but while his 34% reach rate over the last month is a tick high, he doesn’t appear to be falling apart in terms of plate discipline. A 9% strikeout-minus-walk (K-BB) rate on the month is very respectable.
Make no mistake, Mazara’s May was pretty clearly a flash in the pan, but dirt-cheap everyday players with strong batting average upside don’t grow on trees. Make a play for Mazara. If his batted-ball luck changes, he might be in for a strong second half. No matter the outcome, this is as low-risk an investment as it gets.
Todd Frazier (3B – NYY) .208 BABIP
Frazier was on the move in the real-life game last week, and as deadlines loom in fantasy leagues, he might be switching colors in a number of fantasy leagues as well.
Frazier has seemed like a classic over-drafted underachiever this year, especially in an environment where his all-power-no-average skill set is becoming increasingly unremarkable. Indeed, owners have been looking to get out from under Frazier since he his .184 through the first two months of the season.
It’s worth remembering, though, that Frazier is a historically streaky hitter. He hit .207 for three whole months from June through August last year and then hit .281 with 14 extra-base hits over the final month of the season. Even his younger days in Cincinnati had month-long stretches where he fell into an extended sub-.200 funk.
Granted, Frazier doesn’t exactly profile as the kind of fleet-footed hitter who warrants a high BABIP baseline. His 2016 season BABIP cratered at .236, well below his modest .272 career mark. It’s also notable that Frazier has only stolen four bases this season after tallying no fewer than 13 in each of the previous three seasons–another blotch on his fantasy stock, evidence that the speed half of his low-key power/speed combo is in decline.
Even so, Frazier’s current run of .208 BABIP seems rather unlucky, especially if you consider that his batted-ball data has been pretty sturdy with a 35% hard contact rate and 19% line drives. Meanwhile, Frazier has remained reliably stellar in terms of plate discipline, with a stingy 24% reach rate that’s a top-30 mark in the majors and a 16% walk rate that has him sandwiched between batting-eye luminaries Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen in the top-10 leaderboard.
There’s a chance that the Frazier owner in your league sees the trade to the Yankees as a chance to unload some dead weight, and if I could buy Frazier at a mid-round price, I’d take the gamble, especially if my team needed a dash of upside to rejoin the pennant race.
Maikel Franco (3B – PHI) .225 BABIP
If Franco has made an appearance on your waiver wire, I wouldn’t let him sit there for too long. The young Phillies slugger has seen his ESPN ownership wallow below 40% thanks to a miserable first half in terms of surface results, with a .648 OPS through his first 310 plate appearances encouraging power speculators to cut bait in a hurry.
And who can blame them? The half-season of .280 BA from 2015 that made Franco look like a multi-category stud in the making seemed well in the rearview after a mediocre .255/.306/.427 turn in 2016 and some uninspired performance out of the gate in 2017.
Yet Franco has been quietly turning things around this summer, boasting a .232 ISO over the last month to go with a downright elite sub-3% K-BB. Indeed, the batted-ball luck seems to be the only thing that’s not working in Franco’s favor this month. His .242 BA over the last month marks an improvement .229 season-long mark, and that’s with a subdued .225 BABIP.
Considering Franco’s power profile and keen batting eye, there’s reason to expect a strong multi-category finish for the young Philly.
Chris Taylor (2B/3B/SS/OF – LAD) .492 BABIP
If you woke up from a month-long coma and were tasked with guessing the top seven batting average performers in MLB over the past 30 days, you wouldn’t have a prayer, no matter the number of guesses. That’s because the Dodgers utility man, barely owned outside of deep NL-only leagues a month ago, stands with his .375 mark at the seventh highest contributor over that span, right behind Andrew McCutchen and Anthony Rendon.
Taylor’s audacious BABIP is reason enough to expect regression. That Taylor can’t keep his current pace isn’t any sort of hot take. But what will he regress to? The underlying stats are mixed. On the one end, we have a slick 36% hard contact and superb 28% liner rate. On the other hand, we have a rather unsightly 19% K-BB, along with an uninspiring 13% swinging-strike rate and 30% reach rate.
Thing is, Taylor has shown the speed profile to maintain a high BABIP in the minors, maintaining balls-in-play marks of .355 and .378 during his two extended Triple-A stints when he was in the Mariners system in 2015 and 2016. Still, even those respectable rates are 100-plus points removed from his current pace, so we can certainly expect a fair amount of push back on his current .312 season BA.
But if he continues seeing most of the starts atop the juggernaut Dodgers lineup, he will remain a valuable fantasy asset. Sell high if you’re so inclined, but make sure it’s for a strong return.
Tommy Pham (OF – STL) .438 BABIP
Everything, BABIP included, is breaking right for skyrocketing St. Louis outfielder Tommy Pham. But this is a rare case where a .400-plus BABIP might not be that much of a fluke. Check out Pham’s 47% hard contact over the past 30 days, the third-highest rate in the majors. Better yet, look at that 7% soft contact, the third-lowest mark in the bigs.
Pham’s hit tool has sharpened demonstratively this season, a change that Pham attributes to a new contact lens prescription that bolstered his peripheral vision. The results speak for themselves. Pham’s already solid 2016 reach rate is down five percentage points. His contact rate is up by more than 12 percentage points. Last year’s ugly 14% swinging strike rate is down to almost 8%.
That .438 BABIP is probably unsustainable, but that .374 mark on the season might stick, leaving Pham to hover around a .300 BA going forward. Suffice it to say, Pham’s 55% ownership in ESPN leagues is a travesty. He should be owned in every single mixed league.
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Tom Whalen is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tom, check out his archive or follow him @tomcwhalen.
