It’s a little harder to find value this week. We had some success mining for value last week, including James White (who is still too cheap), but also had Brett Hundley fall flat on his face in a nice matchup. The NFL didn’t escape injury-free – the great offensive tackle Joe Thomas had his streak of 10,363 consecutive snaps played broken, a feat not likely to be repeated – but no injuries to key fantasy players. That means a little more effort and risk to find values. We’ve gotten used to it being easy the last few weeks, but we can still dig up some gold. Statistics via ProFootball Reference unless otherwise indicated.
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Quarterback
Carson Wentz (PHI): $7,900 vs. SF
As you can see, the threshold for “value” is higher by necessity this week. Carson Wentz’s salary is still far too low. He’s the second-ranked quarterback in our Value Plays tool. He’s an obvious play against a San Francisco defense that’s only gotten one sack in the last two games. They’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and have been a pathetic defense overall all season long. They’ve given up 12 touchdowns and only snatched four interceptions. It’s no surprise the team is 0-7. However, I am concerned about Wentz’s volume. He’s averaging only 33 attempts per game for the year and less than 30 since Week 3. His yards per game have also gone down from 265 to 242 since then. His fantasy points have largely come by way of the touchdown, which is by nature a fluky thing. He’s thrown for 17 touchdowns, but 11 came in the last three games, with only six in the other four games. It’s possible that the Eagles will get out ahead early and Wentz won’t need to throw much at all. He’s still a lock for cash game lineups, but there’s enough reason to doubt his ceiling in tournaments.
Philip Rivers (LAC): $ 7,500 @ NE
What matchup could be better for quarterbacks than the 49ers? The New England Patriots! Yes, really. Their defense has been shockingly bad. They’ve allowed the most fantasy points to QBs this season, giving up 15 touchdowns with only five interceptions. Rivers doesn’t have the same volume concerns that Wentz does; he will have to throw to keep up with the Patriots’ offense. Also, the Chargers throw more than the Eagles in general. Rivers has averaged 37 pass attempts and 259 yards per game. If you take out the two games against Denver, those numbers rise to 39 attempts and 288 yards. With the Patriots allowing an average of 310 passing yards per game, Rivers should be able to rack up the yards. One way that injuries are affecting fantasy this week is through defensive injuries. The Patriots may get back cornerback Stephon Gilmore (who isn’t great but better than his backup), but they’ll be without middle linebacker Dont’a Hightower. With the middle linebacker responsible for setting the defense, it’s not only a loss of Hightower’s talents but also his leadership for the Patriots. Philip Rivers comes in at a little cheaper than Carson Wentz with more risk but a higher ceiling, putting him at number four in our Value Plays tool.
Running Back
Mark Ingram (NO): $7,200 vs. CHI
It was fun while it lasted, but I think it’s time to put the “Sean Payton hates Mark Ingram” narrative to bed. In the two games since the Adrian Peterson trade, Ingram has averaged 23.5 carries and five targets – nearly 30 touches per game. His price has risen sharply, but not sharply enough to account for the volume he’s being fed now. The Bears’ defense looks decent against running backs at a glance (22nd in fantasy points allowed for the season), but their players and especially their linebackers have been decimated by injuries. Over the last three games, they’ve allowed an average of 4.5 yards per carry and 130 rushing yards per game, but only one touchdown. They’re due for some touchdown regression. Last year, running backs scored one rushing touchdown for every 131.5 rushing yards, meaning the Bears got lucky and should have given up one or two more scores. Ingram comes in as the number four undervalued running back in our tool, but I think that’s being conservative.
Joe Mixon (CIN): $5,900 vs. IND
If anyone knows what the Bengals are doing with their backfield, please let me know. Or at least, let them know. Joe Mixon has a few things in his favor this weekend, starting with his talent. He’s got a great matchup with a Colts defense that’s allowed 10 touchdowns already this season, two more than the next closest (but the variance of touchdowns is a concern). They’re allowing 125 rushing yards per game and their 4.26 yards per carry allowed ranks 13th. Mixon also has a clear, if not overwhelming, hold on the Bengals’ backfield snaps. He leads with an uninspiring 43%. It’s a number of good-but-not-greats that add up to make Mixon an interesting play. His usage is the biggest concern. His touches (carries plus targets) are so variable: 11, 10, 21, 21, 15, 10, in order by game. If I knew he’d hit that 21 touch mark, I’d pay his $5,900 salary in a second. Even with the uncertainty, I like him in tournament formats and he’s our tool’s second-most undervalued back. If the Bengals get up a couple scores on the Colts, he could see a lot of carries running out the clock. Or they could inexplicably give it to the ghost of Jeremy Hill.
Wide Receiver
Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) & Devin Funchess (CAR): $6,600 & $6,500 @ TB
Tampa Bay’s defense is in danger of being without its top two cornerbacks, Brent Grimes and Robert McClain, who have yet to practice this week. It hasn’t been pretty for their pass defense even with these guys. The Buccaneers allow the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They come by it honestly, allowing 295 yards per game in the air, to go with 11 touchdowns and just four picks. Whether Grimes and McClain play or not, Tampa Bay has no tall corners, meaning 6’5″ Kelvin Benjamin and 6’4″ Devin Funchess will tower over whoever covers them. For the season, Benjamin has averaged 6.3 targets per game and Funchess 7.6, but over the last three games, they’ve both averaged 8.3 targets. They should get plenty of opportunity against a bad, depleted secondary.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT): $5,500 @ DET
JuJu came through for us last week and he’s poised to have an even bigger role this week, with news coming out of Pittsburgh that Martavis Bryant will be inactive. Bryant has been the odd man out for a while already, but he was still seeing playing time. Whether it’s because of Instagram drama or just the love the Steelers clearly have for Smith-Schuster, Bryant’s going to be a healthy scratch and Smith-Schuster’s going to be the starting wideout opposite Antonio Brown. Still, he’s not an automatic must-play. He’s only gotten three targets in each of the last two games, though he has gotten six targets twice this year. He’s also the tallest Steelers’ wide receiver despite being only 6’1″ and should draw the best cornerback matchup against Nevin Lawson (who is four inches shorter). Most importantly, JuJu is the guy they’re looking to when they need to score touchdowns. 31% of his targets have come in the red zone and he has three touchdowns on only 17 catches.
Tight End
Jason Witten (DAL): $5,400 @ WAS
It’s incredible that in 2017, Jason Witten is still a viable fantasy player. But his seven targets per game average is tied for third-most among tight ends. Granted, that average has come through more ups and downs than we’re used to from the normally-consistent Witten, but this looks like a game that should be an up. Washington allows the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. Elite cornerback Josh Norman is expected to play, which will make it harder for Dak Prescott to connect with his outside receivers like Dez Bryant. It should create more opportunity for Witten, who is constantly on the field; he played 99.8% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps before the bye. Against the 49ers, he only played 84% of the snaps, but my guess is that with the game out of reach, they let the veteran get some rest. Value is hard to come by at tight end this week, and below Witten it is a wasteland.
Hunter Henry (LAC): $5,500 @ NE
I said a lot about the sad state of the New England pass defense while discussing Philip Rivers above. That all applies to Hunter Henry as well, with perhaps an added boost from Dont’a Hightower’s absence opening up routes down the middle of the field. The Patriots have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends. I think the Chargers have finally passed the torch from Antonio Gates to Hunter Henry. Over the last three games, Gates has gotten five total targets, while Henry has averaged 6.6 per game. In the last game, Gates’ snap share fell to a season-low 31%, while Henry’s average for the last three games is up to 80%. The Patriots are going to score points on the Chargers’ defense. It’s expected to be a high-scoring game with the Chargers keeping it close enough to be interesting, which means the Chargers will end up having to throw to keep up. Hunter Henry might be their best weapon in the passing game this week.
Kicker
Randy Bullock (CIN): $4,600 vs. IND
The Colts’ defense has been bad against everyone, so it’s not a surprise that they allow the most fantasy points to kickers, too. Betting markets expect the Bengals to score a lot of points and beat the Colts by a double-digit margin. That should leave plenty of room for Bullock to take some long kicks late in the game. He’s the third-ranked undervalued kicker by our tool.
D/ST
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST: $4,400 @ DET
Defenses inherently have high variance. If you got steamrolled by the Bears or Chargers D/ST last week, you know what I mean. The Steelers have a much more talented defense than either of those. They haven’t scored less than five fantasy points yet this year. They’ve been decent against the run, but very good against the pass. Luckily, the Lions haven’t been able to put together much of a running game all year. Matthew Stafford has been sacked 17 times in the last three games. It almost makes the 24 sacks that the Steelers have racked up this season look low, when in fact, they’re tied for the second-most sacks. The Lions are coming off a bye, which should help Stafford shake off the three interceptions in his last game, but he’s a volatile player who takes risks, which could pay off big for the Steelers.
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Steve Repsold is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Steve, check out his archive and follow him @SteveRepsold.
