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Stock Up for 2018 (Fantasy Football)

Stock Up for 2018 (Fantasy Football)

There are some players whose stock is up after excellent 2017 showings. In fact, there were so many players who were deserving of inclusion that it was a difficult task whittling the list down — especially at receiver. One self-imposed rule I observed while making the list was not to include teammates.

Instead, I’ll mention the tough cut teammates in passing in the write up for the player from their team who did make this piece. The toughest exclusion was Adam Thielen.

He’s 100% deserving of mention after a tremendous season, but he generated buzz in advance of fantasy drafts, and the two included receivers had already — prematurely, as it turns out — been dismissed as busts. Ultimately, I decided the leaps made by a pair of third-year pros were more deserving of discussion than Thielen’s excellent (and ongoing) 2017 campaign.

Quarterback

Jimmy Garoppolo (SF)
Jimmy GQ escaped the shadow of the G.O.A.T. when the Patriots shipped the young quarterback off to the 49ers shortly before the NFL’s trade deadline. Garoppolo sat for a few weeks while learning his new club’s offense, but he finished the season rewarding the 49ers for their faith in him being their franchise quarterback.

In five starts, Jimmy GQ surpassed 300 yards passing twice and tossed a pair of touchdown passes in two more of his starts. The only start in which he failed to eclipse 300 yards passing or toss multiple touchdown passes was his first start.

He posted these impressive numbers despite the fact No. 1 receiver Pierre Garcon was on IR already. Being frank, San Francisco’s weapons on offense were lackluster, and Garoppolo elevated the play of the club while learning Kyle Shanahan’s complicated offense on the fly. Speaking of players whose production was elevated, Marquise Goodwin enjoyed a career year in his first with the 49ers.

His 962 yards receiving were 182 more than he’d accumulated in four years and 39 games played for the Bills. Goodwin fits the bill as a player whose stock is up entering 2018, but his signal caller got the nod instead. Garoppolo is a QB1 in 12-team leagues or larger presently, and his upside should get a lift this offseason as the 49ers look to put pieces around him.

Running Back

Todd Gurley (LAR)
Gurley had plenty of questions entering the year after a sophomore slump, and all he did was lead the NFL in yards from scrimmage (2,093) and rushing plus receiving touchdowns (19), per Pro-Football-Reference. Gurley was the focal point of an offense that was chock full of stock risers, namely sophomore quarterback Jared Goff and free-agent addition Robert Woods.

In 2016, the Rams ranked dead last in scoring offense (14.0 points per game). This year, they ranked first (29.9 points per game). They more than doubled their per-game scoring output from 2016!

Getting back to Gurley specifically, one significant change that made his third year even more impressive than his excellent rookie season in 2015 was his improvement as a receiver. He set new highs this year in targets (87), receptions (64), yards per reception (12.3), receptions per game (4.3), receiving yards per game (52.5), and receiving touchdowns (six). In fact, he’d never caught a touchdown pass as a pro before this year. Even if Le’Veon Bell signs a long-term contract and avoids a holdout — or retirement, as he recently threatened he’d do if franchise tagged again, Gurley is deserving of the top pick in fantasy drafts for next year.

Kenyan Drake (MIA)
Jay Ajayi was expected to be the workhorse back for the Dolphins this year, and he was early in the year. Ajayi was inefficient and fell out of favor with Miami, though, and he was dealt to the Eagles. In the wake of the trade, Drake shared backfield duties with Damien Williams.

Drake was the more impressive back when both were healthy, and then Williams was injured. The injury opened the door for Drake to show off his well-rounded skill-set.

In the last five games of the year, Drake touched the ball at least 13 times in each contest and bested 55 yards from scrimmage in all five games. During that stretch, he also reached at least 90 yards from scrimmage four times, bested 100 yards from scrimmage three times, and caught at least three passes in a game four times. He also averaged 18.2 carries, 88.8 yards rushing, 4.88 yards per carry, 5.6 targets, 3.4 receptions, and 30.0 yards receiving per game while scoring two touchdowns during that stretch.

Drake exhibited the ability to thrive in an every-down role. Alex Collins was edged out for the second running back spot due to Drake’s superiority as a receiver, but Collins deserves to be called out as an honorable mention.

Wide Receiver

Devin Funchess (CAR)
Nelson Agholor (PHI)
I’m going to clump the analysis of these two together because it seems fitting. Funchess and Agholor entered the NFL as top-50 draft picks in the 2015 NFL Draft with the Eagles popping Agholor at pick 20 and the Panthers snapping up Funchess at pick 41. In their four combined seasons played before 2017, the high-water mark for receiving yards between the two was 473 posted by Funchess as a rookie in 2015.

Both wideouts failed to live up to expectations, and many gamers had understandably moved on to the next shiny new toy. Funchess and Agholor provide cautionary tales for writing off young players too quickly.

Funchess’ 840 yards and eight touchdown receptions this year were just four yards and one touchdown shy from matching his 2015-2016 totals. Meanwhile, Agholor’s 768 yards receiving and eight touchdowns exceeded his pre-2017 totals of 638 yards receiving and three touchdowns. The two young wideouts are no longer fantasy afterthoughts.

Tight End

Eric Ebron (DET)
While it was tough to whittle down the list at other positions, it was also tough to identify a real “stock-up” player at tight end. Zach Ertz had a breakout performance in the touchdown category, but his receptions and receiving yardage totals were in line with the last two years, and he was a favorite option at tight end entering this year. Ebron’s production this year slid 
backward from 2016, but his game log tells the tale of a guy who emerged as a critical piece in Detroit’s passing attack down the stretch.

Detroit had their bye in Week 7. Before the bye, Ebron totaled 26 targets, 13 receptions, 102 yards receiving, and one touchdown. Those totals break down to per-game averages of 4.33 targets, 2.17 receptions, and 17 yards receiving. 

He fell short of double-digit yards receiving in four of six games, and his single-game highs to that point were five receptions and 42 yards receiving. The switch went on after the bye. He fell short of double-digit yards receiving just one time (the final game of the season), and he totaled 60 targets, 40 receptions, 472 yards receiving, and three touchdowns in 10 games. 

His post-bye totals resulted in per-game averages of 6.0 targets, 4.0 receptions, and 47.2 yards receiving. Ebron isn’t a slam-dunk weekly starter at tight end just yet, but his post-bye production could be a harbinger of a breakout in 2018.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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