Considering the abundance of resources we have at our disposal these days, it’s hard to say if there are truly any “sleepers” anymore. Between all the advanced statistics, articles, podcasts, and overall analysis at every corner of the Internet, it’s hard for players to slip through the cracks. But that doesn’t mean we can’t find some potential value in the later rounds. Recency bias, playing time concerns, and past injuries can still depress one’s draft stock. Let’s check out some guys typically going outside the top-300 picks who you should contemplate grabbing towards the end of your drafts, or keep an eye on at the start of the year.
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Cameron Maybin (OF – MIA) ADP 331
Mallex Smith (OF – TB) ADP 332
Considering the general scarcity of stolen bases, it’s a wonder we can find two obvious sources this late in the game. While Cameron Maybin and Mallex Smith will never be mistaken for the top speed demons of Trea Turner, Dee Gordon, and Billy Hamilton, you’ll need to pay a premium for those guys, while these two are practically going for free by comparison.
Maybin is coming off a season in which he hit 10 dingers and stole 33 bases, but a .228 average and lengthy injury history is apparently keeping him from getting as much love. As a career .255 hitter, we’re not expecting any miracles in batting average, but at least he should bump it up enough to not hurt you. The potential for double-digit home runs and 20-30 bags is a power/speed combo you don’t often see this far down the draft board. Staying healthy is the real concern, but that’s not a major issue at this price point.
Smith is similar to a Gordon or Hamilton in that he’ll give you little to nothing in power, but he has the wheels to rack up the swiped bags. According to Statcast’s 2017 sprint speed leaderboard, Smith was essentially tied for 10th overall, even ranking a tick faster than Turner. In 2015, he stole a whopping 57 bases between Triple-A and Double-A. However, with a modest .256/.323/.360 slash line over 497 major league plate appearances, that could hold him back from getting on base as much as we would like. Still, he turns just 25 years old in May, and has an easier path to regular playing time in 2018, particularly since Denard Span is 34 years old, and it’s not like Kevin Kiermaier and Carlos Gomez are beacons of health. Public projection models, which are conservative by design, generally peg him for 20-30 stolen bases in limited at-bats, which lays out a strong floor, with a chance for more if he stays healthy and gets a full-time role.
For both players, their counting stats have a limited ceiling, as both will likely be hitting low in the order on some weak lineups. But this kind of speed is a rarity late in drafts, so don’t be afraid to ignore the ADP, and move these guys up your board a few rounds.
Mike Foltynewicz (SP – ATL) ADP 348
Foltynewicz got some traction as a late sleeper last season, and he “rewarded” owners with a disappointing 4.79 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 154 innings. A quick look at his game log showed some upside when things go right, but inconsistency and control issues derailed the season as a whole. The peripherals don’t lend themselves to much optimism, but there could still be some untapped potential hiding in the former top prospect. This spring, the 26-year-old is reportedly working on first-pitch strikes and a simplified delivery to combat some of his past issues. As of this writing it’s hard to argue with the results, as he’s yet to give up a run through 14 innings. He has a 7/4 K/BB ratio in that span, which is a little short on punchouts, but he did strike out five across five no-hit innings in his last outing. Yes, it’s just Spring Training, but it’s a reminder that maybe, just maybe, we can still get a good season out of Foltynewicz. Due to the underwhelming track record, few are talking about him this offseason, and you’ll likely see him collecting dust in even some deep drafts. There’s little risk in taking one last chance with him to see if this spring’s changes stick.
C.J. Cron (1B – TB) ADP 387
Lucas Duda (1B – KC) ADP 416
Jorge Soler (OF – KC) ADP 421
Jose Martinez (ADP 290) has been getting some much-deserved attention as a corner infielder/outfielder sleeper to the point that by the time you have your draft he may not be much of a secret to your league mates. If you miss out, though, C.J. Cron, Lucas Duda, and Jorge Soler aren’t bad consolation prizes if you’re looking for some late hitters.
Cron’s stats don’t jump off the page, posting exactly 16 home runs for three straight seasons. However, he never exceeded 120 games with the Los Angeles Angels, getting squeezed for playing time by guys like Albert Pujols and Luis Valbuena in 2017. Now free of that situation on the Tampa Bay Rays, Cron finally has a clear path to regular playing time, giving him an excellent opportunity to finally exceed 20 long balls. Hitting in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field isn’t exactly an improvement over Angel Stadium, and his career .324 wOBA and 13.9% HR/FB rate don’t scream upside, but with a full season of at-bats he’s a perfectly solid hitter. Ultimately, he doesn’t project much differently than his former teammate Kole Calhoun, who is going nearly 100 picks earlier.
Slugging 30 home runs may not seem like a big deal anymore, but it’s still funny to see Duda wallowing outside the top 400 picks. Obviously, a part of that was due to his extremely long wait before signing with the Kansas City Royals, but this is still a buy-low opportunity on what could be a forgotten man in many drafts. Hitting .217 will also certainly tank your draft stock, but it’s not like a low batting average is stopping anyone from drafting Joey Gallo (ADP 116) and Chris Davis (ADP 215), who are both fine values in their own right. Sure, Duda doesn’t have the pure power upside of those two, but he’s hit at least 27 home runs in three of the last four seasons, and while the average is unlikely to ever be high, he’s proven he can hit between .240-.250, which isn’t a backbreaker. He’s another guy with health issues, and isn’t getting any younger at age 32, but keep in mind that just because everyone is hitting dingers these days doesn’t mean there isn’t value in power. You still need to get as many homers as you can to compete, and here’s 30 you’re getting for next to nothing.
Duda’s teammate Jorge Soler could also be a cheap source of power if he can finally put it all together. In Triple-A last season, Soler slashed .267/.388/564 with 24 home runs in just 74 games, once again teasing at the potential if he can ever translate that to the majors. As of now, he’s tied for the league lead in home runs (6) this spring, which could be a mirage, but you can’t help but wonder if this could be the season he rewards fantasy owners. Given his past failures, the 26-year-old is about as boom-or-bust as they come, but don’t be afraid to take a chance on the upside.
A.J. Puk (SP – OAK) ADP 443
A.J. Puk will begin the season in the minors, so he won’t be of any help to start the year, but unlike many other top prospects, there’s a very real chance he’s given a shot at the majors early on. Oakland’s starting rotation is modest at best, and they already lost Jharel Cotton to Tommy John surgery. Reports have all been positive for Puk this spring, and although he’s never pitched above Double-A, he had a tantalizing 30.8% strikeout rate at that level in 2017. A 2016 first-round draft pick, even with the elite pedigree, we know major league success doesn’t always come right away, and he only threw 125 innings in the minors last season. Still, he’s a worthwhile deep league flyer in case a hot start and gets him the call.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
