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Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 11

Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 11

This past week was one of the quietest of the season as far as closers go. The most significant news comes in the form of player injuries. Oddly enough, in both instances of player injury, there was no real movement in the rankings. In fact, you could even make an argument for zero changes in the closer rankings this week. However, what would be the fun in that?

There were quite a few blown saves this past week. In total there were eight of them with each coming from a different pitcher! We also had some minor movement among the elite closers, as both Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen each managed to save four games. In the final analysis, the movement below reflects the minimal change at the position this week. I expect this to change in the coming weeks as teams start to shop the trade market for bullpen help, bring up minor league arms to assist in the bullpen, and prepare for a postseason playoff run.

View the Closer Depth Charts for all 30 teams partner-arrow

Team (Closer) Current Rank Previous Rank +/-
Red Sox (Craig Kimbrel) 1 1
Yankees (Aroldis Chapman) 3 2 +1
Dodgers (Kenley Jansen) 2 3 -1
Rockies (Wade Davis) 4 4
Nationals (Sean Doolittle) 5 5
Mariners (Edwin Diaz) 6 6
Reds (Raisel Iglesias) 7 7
Padres (Brad Hand) 8 8
Pirates (Felipe Vazquez) 9 9
Mets (Robert Gsellman) 10 10
Cubs (Brandon Morrow) 11 11
Royals (Kelvin Herrera) 12 12
Indians (Cody Allen) 13 13
Brewers (Corey Knebel) 14 14
Diamondbacks (Brad Boxberger) 15 15
Astros (Ken Giles) 19 16 -3
Cardinals (Bud Norris) 18 17 -1
Giants (Hunter Strickland) 16 18 +2
Braves (Arodys Vizcaino) 17 19 +2
A’s (Blake Treinen) 20 20
Tigers (Shane Greene) 21 21
Twins (Fernando Rodney) 22 22
Rangers (Keone Kela) 24 23 -1
Phillies (Seranthony Dominguez) 23 24 +1
Rays (Committee) 25 25
Marlins (Kyle Barraclough) 26 26
Orioles (Brad Brach) 27 27
Blue Jays (Ryan Tepera) 28 28
Angels (Committee) 29 29
White Sox (Committee) 30 30

 
Aroldis Chapman (NYY)
Chapman continued doing Chapman things in picking up four saves this past week. He gave up just two hits and struck out five batters in 3.1 IP. Chapman’s ERA now stands at 1.35 for the season with a corresponding WHIP of 0.90 and 15.53 K/9. However, there was a significant signal that all is not well with the Cuban hurler. Chapman was limping noticeably during Friday’s outing and his knee was wrapped and iced in the clubhouse after the game.

Reportedly, Chapman has been dealing with tendonitis in his left knee for some time, and he’s planning on playing through the injury. While that’s fine and dandy, playing through an injury only makes one prone to further or additional injury. If you own Chapman and can afford to trade him (admittedly, not many fantasy owners can), you should do so before this injury worsens, and he ends up on the DL.

Kenley Jansen (LAD)
Jansen also notched four saves this week, and he seems fully recovered from the terrible start to his season. After his first 12 appearances through May 2, he had a 5.40 ERA, a 1.64 WHIP, he allowed three HRs, and had a 13:6 K:BB ratio. In 16 appearances since May 3, he has a 1.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, and an 18:1 K:BB ratio. He’s also saved 11 games during this period and lowered his season ERA to 2.73. As a result, Jansen was moved up one notch in the closer rankings and Chapman was dropped.

Zach Britton (BAL)
We’ve been warning you for weeks that Zach Britton is close to returning to the Baltimore Orioles and it finally looks like his arrival is imminent. The final hurdle, according to manager Buck Showalter, was getting Britton to pitch on consecutive nights, something he accomplished Thursday and Friday of this past week. During his brief minor league rehab assignment, Britton pitched 5.1 innings and allowed just one earned run with four hits, three strikeouts and zero walks.

There hasn’t been any word from Showalter about whether Britton will take the closer job away from Brad Brach, but the consensus seems to be that Britton will be eased into the job slowly with an eye towards preparing him to be traded before the July 31 deadline. However, Brach had a rough outing this past week in which he allowed three runs on three hits and two walks to notch his second blown save, and he’s had several outings in which he melted down and coughed up a couple of runs this season.

The Orioles, who are expected to trade Britton, could decide to remove Brach from the closer role right away to quickly build up Britton’s trade value. Indeed, they could trade both pitchers and perhaps install Darren O’Day (who is also returning from the DL soon) as the closer. Fantasy owners should prepare for as many of these scenarios as they can, as there is no way to discern which option the Orioles will choose. It’s also important to keep in mind that none of these pitchers are guaranteed to close for another team if they are traded. All three have the skill set to close but could just as easily be inserted into a setup role for their new teams. That makes the Orioles’ closer situation difficult to manage and perhaps best avoided if possible.

Ken Giles (HOU)
Giles has struggled off and on all season long and is currently in the midst of a rough patch. He’s allowed six runs on 10 hits and a walk in his last five appearances (4 IP). Overall, he’s sporting a 5.40 ERA, a season-high for Giles (not counting his ERA after three games). Astros manager A.J. Hinch saw fit to give Giles a night off in the middle of the week and brought Hector Rondon in to save Wednesday night’s game.

If Giles continues to scuffle, either Rondon or Chris Devenski could be tapped to take over at closer, a move that Hinch has not hesitated to make in the past. Rondon has been lights out this season with a 1.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, one save, three holds, and a strikeout rate of 10.64 K/9. Devenski has been even better with a 1.88 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, two saves, 12 holds and a strikeout rate of 11.25 K/9. Since Devenski is so valuable in the setup role, Rondon is probably the pitcher to stash if you are speculating for future save opportunities.

Bud Norris (STL)
If you are a Norris owner, it may be time to hedge your position and pick up Jordan Hicks as a handcuff. Over his last four appearances, Norris has allowed four earned runs, a pair of homers and a .400 batting average to opposing hitters. The result was a pair of losses, two blown saves, and a win, all with an ERA of 12.00. Yikes! As bad as all that looks, there is another underlying reason to grab Norris’ handcuff.

Throughout spring training and April, Norris was using all four of his pitches on a regular basis that looked something like this: Fastball 31%, Sinker 24%, Slider 19%, Cutter 26%. Slowly but surely, Norris has been changing his pitch selection – practically abandoning the sinker and slider and relying almost exclusively on his fastball and cutter. His current mix looks like this: Fastball 46%, Sinker 8%, Slider 3%, Cutter 43%.

It’s difficult to make a case that his effectiveness has changed because we’re looking at tiny sample sizes that are inconclusive at best. But one possible explanation for the changes could be tied to an injury. Norris had some trouble with his biceps in late April and he has a history of blisters on his pitching hand. One or more of these could be causing Norris to change his pitch selection to prevent discomfort or in response to discomfort. If there is an underlying injury, it could crop up at any time, which makes having his handcuff all the more important.

Hicks is a rookie with some control problems that are not what you want to see in a closer profile. He’s pitched 32 innings already this season, and he’s picked up seven holds in the process along with a 2.25 ERA. The big issue with him is his 21:19 K:BB ratio, which inflates his WHIP and makes him tough to trust in high leverage situations. Still, you don’t want to be without Norris’ handcuff if the pitch selection changes are due to an injury.

Joakim Soria (CWS)
The White Sox seem to have settled on Joakim Soria as their closer, for now.  Nate Jones was the previous choice. Given the scarce opportunities for saves with the White Sox, it doesn’t really matter whether you have Soria or Jones. This is one closer situation that you want no part of.

Robert Gsellman (NYM)
The Mets placed closer Jeurys Familia on the disabled list with a sore right shoulder that has lowered his fastball velocity 1-2 mph in recent outings. Gsellman is expected to take over the closer job for the time being, although, Anthony Swarzak was recently activated off the DL and could be in the mix for save opportunities. I’m going with Gsellman, though, because he’s been terrific of late. Gsellman does two things very well and they are the key to his success. First, he generates groundballs at a 56.3% rate. Keeping the ball on the ground and letting your defense get your outs for you is an excellent skill for a relief pitcher. It’s worked well for Gsellman, who’s picked up two saves and five holds in relief so far.

The other major skill for Gsellman is his ability to limit hard contact. Currently, Gsellman is sporting a 30.3% Hard%, which is well below the league average for pitchers. Couple those two skills with a career-high 23.5% strikeout rate and you’ve got yourself a decent closer. Granted, Gsellman is also carrying a 10.5% walk rate, which is a tad high for any pitcher. But it’s not high enough that you need to worry about it. All signs point to Familia coming back around the All-Star break, so Gsellman may not be the closer long enough to do any real damage to your ratios. Go ahead and bid a healthy portion of your FAAB for him.

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Tim McCullough is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Tim, follow him @timstenz.

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