Marquise Goodwin is Ready to Breakout (Fantasy Football)
Marquise Goodwin flashed his fantasy upside in 2017 ending the season strong, from Weeks 9 through 17 he had 39 receptions for 613 yards and two touchdowns which was good for WR17 during that stretch. His finish to 2017 is a significant reason why I’m confident Goodwin will be a fantasy football breakout in 2018. San Francisco showed this offseason they trusted Goodwin as one of the teams top wide receivers after not bringing in any free agent receivers and signing Goodwin to a three-year extension. It was a good deal for him and a win for the 49ers, an overall “Goodwin” for both sides.
So why am I so confident in a receiver who has 105 receptions, 1,742 yards, and eight touchdowns in his five-year career to be a breakout in 2018? His chemistry with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Gold on the periodic table is labeled as Au, so I say Au (“hey you”) look at how Goodwin was with Garoppolo, some would maybe even call him “Greatwin.” How great you ask? This tweet below illustrates how great he was with Jimmy G last season.
Marquise Goodwin w/ Jimmy Garoppolo:
8.6 tar, 5.5 rec, 77 yds, 0.2 TD/Game@flashg88dwin 16 game proj:
138 tar, 88 rec, 1,232 yds, 3 TDs
— Mitchell Renz (@MitchellRenz365) June 10, 2018
Those numbers are fantasy gold. With Garoppolo Goodwin averaged 8.6 targets, 5.5 receptions, 77 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns per game. Which if you extrapolate that for a full 16-game season it looks like 138 targets, 88 receptions, 1,232 yards, and three touchdowns. Only 10 wide receivers finished with more than 138 targets, only eight finished with more than 88 receptions, and only six finished with more than 1,232 yards in 2017. Want more convincing on how special those numbers are? Only Michael Thomas, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Keenan Allen, and Adam Theilen had at least 88 receptions and 1,232 yards in 2017.
Usually, when a wide receiver finishes the season this strong and has a quarterback with as much hype as Garoppolo, it raises his draft stock. Yet Goodwin is WR38 in standard, WR44 in PPR, WR43 in half-PPR, and his ADP is 87.
His situation this year is a little different because Pierre Garcon will be there hopefully for a full 16 games and the 49ers invested in Dante Pettis in the 2018 NFL Draft which could impact his overall target share. With that being said, Goodwin is a big play receiver who can take any play the distance. He averaged 17.2 yards per reception in 2017 which was the third best in the NFL. Sustaining such high yards per reception with 56 catches (962 yards) showcases his big play ability.
Still not sold on Goodwin’s freakish speed? What if I told you Goodwin was a sprinter for Team USA? Or maybe that he owns the fifth fastest 40-yard dash time at the NFL combine with a 4.27? Last but not least after crushing his NFL combine he finished in the 92 percentile for SPARQ according to PlayerProfiler.com.
But being fast in the combine and on the track is different than running in pads and with the football in your hand. So here are the fastest times reached in the NFL with the football in their hands from 2017.
Fastest Speeds In MPH Reached In 2017 🔥:
1) Leonard Fournette 22.05
2) Leonard Fournette 21.76
3) Martavis Bryant 21.72
4) Marquise Goodwin 21.68
T5) Tyreek Hill 21.64
T5) Derrick Henry 21.64
7) William Jackson 21.52
8) Taywan Taylor 21.44
9) Mike Wallace 21.42#NFL 🏈 pic.twitter.com/gVw2VttwwY
— Mitchell Renz (@MitchellRenz365) May 17, 2018
Do you see who number four is? That’s right, Goodwin, and he hit 21.68 mph last year.
If you’re still not a believer in Goodwin, maybe you will believe in Kyle Shanahan and his offenses. The Shanahan system is a complicated offense that usually takes a year for the quarterback and team to learn and execute. Below are how the passing offenses ranked under Shanahan in the first and second year of the system.
Shanahan with the Texans:
- 2008 Texans
- Attempts – seventh
- Yards – fourth
- Touchdowns – 13th
- 2009 Texans
- Attempts – fourth,
- Yards – first
- Touchdowns – fifth
Shanahan with the Redskins:
- 2010 Redskins
- Attempts – fourth
- Yards – eighth
- Touchdowns – 22nd
- 2011 Redskins
- Attempts – fifth
- Yards – 14th
- Touchdowns – 23rd
Shanahan with the Falcons:
- 2015 Falcons
- Attempts – sixth
- Yards – sixth
- Touchdowns – 23rd
- 2016 Falcons
- Attempts – 26th
- Yards – third
- Touchdowns – second
So two of those three seasons, a Shanahan-led offense saw an increase in production from year one to two. The 49ers last season ranked second in attempts, ninth in yards, and 28th in touchdowns. I expect the offense to be better with more talent at the skill positions and a full 16 games from Garoppolo under center.
A better offense means more chances for the team to score points and touchdowns were the only area of improvement for Goodwin last season. The 49ers don’t have a true red-zone target so if Goodwin can continue his chemistry with Garoppolo this offseason and work on finding that connection in the red-zone, Goodwin’s season could be special. Goodwin flashed his talent at the end of last year, but if you don’t start buying tickets for the Marquise Express, it may streak right by you.