The tight end position is always one of the more difficult to project with four or five studs on a yearly basis and a complete crapshoot thereafter. Last season, it was Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and Zach Ertz who led the class with a quietly productive season from Jimmy Graham and a breakout rookie campaign from Evan Engram following. Outside of that, there was very little to talk about with a slew of crapshoot streamers and inconsistent performers. In standard scoring leagues, both Cameron Brate and Jack Doyle finished among the top 10 so that should give you an indication of how strong the overall tight end pool was (not very).

Last year, it was Greg Olsen who was the biggest bust among top drafted tight ends, largely due to a broken foot in Week 2. Having become the first tight end in NFL history to record three straight 1,000 yards seasons, Olsen was regarded as the safest choice among tight ends, but fantasy owners who drafted him early got burned. This year, it’s going to be Gronk, Kelce, and Ertz leading the pack in the earlier rounds with Graham, Olsen, and Engram to follow. Let’s take a look at which tight ends might end up being busts this year.

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Travis Kelce (KC): ADP 28, TE2
Extremely underrated is the loss of Alex Smith for the Chiefs offense this season. Three-time Pro Bowler Travis Kelce has played his entire career with Smith under center, and an adjustment will likely be in the cards with second-year QB Patrick Mahomes taking the reins of KC’s offense under Andy Reid. A model of consistency in his first four seasons, Kelce will need to adjust to a much more volatile quarterback situation with Mahomes rather than one of the most stable in the NFL while under Smith. A third-round selection is a hefty price tag to pay considering the quarterback change as well as the loss of offensive coordinator Matt Nagy to the Bears. Kelce will be attempting to become just the second tight end in NFL history to record three straight 1,000-yard seasons, something that not even the great Tony Gonzalez did while with the Chiefs. Unless he posts extraordinary touchdown totals, he will need to accomplish that in order to justify the price tag. I don’t like his chances.

Jimmy Graham (GB): ADP 53, TE4
Jimmy Graham may have had a productive fantasy season in 2017, especially in standard scoring leagues, with 10 touchdowns. However, Graham was extremely inefficient when not finding the end zone with only 57 catches and 520 yards on 97 targets. Nobody is going to argue that Graham is the player he once was with the Saints, but Aaron Rodgers throwing him the football will make many a believer in Graham for the upcoming season.

With Jordy Nelson out of the picture, Graham is one of the few recognizable names among the options that Aaron Rodgers has to throw to. However, Rodgers has always been one to spread the ball around and has never produced great results for tight ends. For five straight seasons, the Packers have featured a different lead tight end in the passing game (Martellus Bennett in 2017, Jared Cook in 2016, Richard Rodgers in 2015, Andrew Quarless in 2014, and Jermichael Finley in 2013). Only Richard Rogers’ fluky 510-yard, eight-touchdown season in 2015 stands out as anywhere even in the ballpark of serviceable. Graham is more of a talent than the preceding Packers tight ends, but I still don’t see much changing, even with Nelson out of the picture. I’d be willing to let somebody else take a chance on a declining, 31-year-old tight end in the sixth round regardless of who is throwing him the football.

Trey Burton (CHI): ADP 97, TE10
Trey Burton made a name for himself last season as a complementary piece of the Super Bowl champion Eagles offense (as well as surprise Super Bowl quarterback) with 23 catches, 248 yards, and five touchdowns. An undrafted rookie out of Florida in 2014, Burton was promptly rewarded by the Bears with a four-year, $32 million deal this offseason despite only 63 catches and 629 yards in his four-year career. Burton was a nice weapon for the Eagles as a backup tight end and his value was almost solely based on his extremely high touchdown total considering he only had 23 catches all year. With no evidence that Burton can succeed as a featured tight end, it will be risky to rely on him as your TE1 for the upcoming season despite how eager the Bears are to get him heavily involved in the offense and justify his contract. I’m never a big fan of paying for fluky touchdown totals, especially when they all come as a secondary piece of an explosive offense. Burton’s 22% touchdown percentage of last season is certainly unsustainable, and there’s a significant possibility that Burton was just a product of a really productive offense. I’d much rather take a chance on the oft-injured Jordan Reed staying healthy with the newly acquired Alex Smith throwing him the ball for a similar price (ADP 87, TE9).

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Joey Korman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joey, check out his archive and follow him @leaveit2divac.