With most of the Week 2 games just 24 hours away, it is time to make my 10 bold predictions. As I defined last week, A bold prediction is something the general public would give less than a 10% shot of happening, but I put it at 25% or higher. Last week, I was correct on both Joe Mixon finishing as a top 5 running back and James Conner ending up in the top 12, but fell short on the others. There were a handful of close calls and only one trainwreck (Dak Prescott) so I’ll chalk it up as a decent week, but now I’m shooting for 4 out of 10 to get my winning percentage up to 30% on the season. Thank you for taking the time to read and I hope you enjoy! Shoot me your bold predictions on twitter and I’ll let you know what I think!
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#10 Kerryon Johnson will finish as a top 20 RB this week
The entire Lions’ backfield was a dumpster fire last week, rushing for just 39 yards against a Jets team everyone projected to win just a handful of games. That will happen at times, however, when the game script leads a team to just 15 carries. You can expect at least 20 this week and likely much higher against the San Francisco 49ers who were the worst run defense in football last year. Kerryon is likely to lead Detroit in carries again, especially with LeGarrette Blount looking so awful last week. With a dozen or more touches in store, Johnson may shred this lousy opponent.
Final Prediction: 12 carries, 59 yards, 4 receptions, 26 yards, 1 TD
#9 Ryan Grant will have more receptions and yards than T.Y. Hilton again
Hilton snuck into the end zone last week so his fantasy points surpassed Grant’s, but it was Grant who caught 8 balls for 59 yards while Hilton went just 5 for 46. A large part of this comes down to Frank Reich’s offensive scheme, but also the fact that Andrew Luck was not throwing downfield often. Both suit Grant’s game much more, hence the Week 1 production. Expect more of the same in Week 2 with Grant potentially seeing double-digit targets in what should be a high-scoring game.
Final Prediction: 7 receptions, 78 yards, 1 TD
#8 Eli Manning will finish top 12 among QBs
Eli didn’t toss any touchdown passes in last week’s home loss to the Jaguars, but he didn’t look awful either, which is quite an accomplishment against a unit that gave up just 11.7 fantasy points per game to QBs last year. Manning’s Week 2 opponent, Dallas, allowed 45% more per game so don’t be surprised when he posts a big game with a now healthy Odell Beckham plus Saquon Barkley, who may be among the best running backs in football this year. The expert consensus has him down as the 27th best QB for the weekend, but he definitely has a chance to finish as a QB1.
Final Prediction: 331 pass yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 4 rush yards
#7 Duke Johnson will perform as a top 20 RB
Part of being an elite NFL team is that game scripts tend to lead them to the top of the leaderboard in RB receiving stats allowed. The Saints were no different last year, surrendering 84 receptions for 737 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns to running backs. Duke should eat in this game with an 8.5 point spread. The Browns didn’t utilize him as often as expected in Week 1, but part of that came down to awful weather conditions, while it didn’t help that the Steelers were among the best teams in football at preventing RB receiving fantasy points last year.
Final Prediction: 4 carries, 26 yards, 8 receptions, 72 yards, 1 TD
#6 Dede Westbrook will be a top 30 WR
Somehow no one was excited about clear-cut #1 receiver, Marqise Lee before his injury, but now that he is out for the year, everyone and their mom got on the Keelan Cole bandwagon. I loved Keelan even before the Lee injury, but the biggest beneficiary was actually Dede, who is the more similar type of player. In Week 1, Dede led the team with 6 targets and could see even more in what is expected to be a higher scoring game versus the Patriots. What’s more, is that Stephon Gilmore is likely to shadow Cole, essentially leaving him out of the picture.
Final Prediction: 8 receptions, 103 yards
#5 The Bears DST will not be a top 16 D/ST
Have we suddenly forgotten that Russell Wilson is one of the greatest quarterbacks in this generation? It matters little that Doug Baldwin is out, Wilson will get his verses an easier Week 2 opponent. Keep in mind, he tossed 3 touchdowns and for 298 yards last week against the Broncos so expect Seattle to put up points, and assuming Wilson can throw the ball to his own teammates, Chicago will have a difficult time racking up fantasy points to the disappointment of all the fantasy experts who have them in their top 6 D/STs this week.
Final Prediction: 3 sacks, 1 FR, 31 points allowed
#4 Marlon Mack will finish as an RB2 or better
Mack missed last week’s game because of a hammy issue, and while most expect the Colts to ease him back in as part of a timeshare with Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines, I am of the belief that they wouldn’t use him unless he was truly ready. Nor do I imagine him to be in a battle with Wilkins for the starting role, this is his job through and through. Expect him to take over full possession of the backfield after a big game versus a Washington front seven that allowed 1,792 rushing yards last season, which was just 5 away from the NFL lead.
Final Prediction: 13 carries, 74 yards, 3 receptions, 32 yards, 1 TD
#3 Benjamin Watson will end up a top 6 TE
Once again last year, the Cleveland Browns were top five in tight end fantasy points allowed. In route to “accomplishing” this, they allowed 11 top-12 tight end performances. Two of which, by the way, belonged to Watson himself while he was with Joe Flacco‘s Ravens. Now that Drew Brees is the man throwing Watson footballs, his prowess against the Browns should be multiplied. Don’t forget, Brees uses his tight ends more than any other quarterback in football.
Final Prediction: 4 receptions, 58 yards, 1 TD
#2 Sammy Watkins will find his way into the top 20 WRs
Frankly, you could make this prediction every single week regardless of matchup and it would both be considered bold and having a 25% chance of hitting. That is who Watkins is, but this week recency bias has this looking like an absurd claim. Rather, this may be his best chance in the season since the over/under in the Chiefs game against Pittsburgh is now at 52.5. Kansas City is going to score and it may not be all Tyreek Hill this time around.
Final Prediction: 5 receptions, 82 yards, 1 TD
#1 Deshaun Watson will finish outside the top 12 QBs again
The Titans’ offense was so abysmal last year that the only way for them to sneak into the playoffs was on the back of their defense. Mind you, their secondary was further improved this off-season. Watson appeared to be rusty last week coming off a significant injury and it certainly doesn’t help that Houston has the worst offensive line in football. Add in the fact that Tennessee was top 3 in football at limiting rushing yards for quarterbacks last season and you should be wary about trusting a bounceback for Deshaun in Week 2.
Final Prediction: 224 pass yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 29 rush yards
**Bonus Super Duper Bold Prediction**
Justin Hunter will end up a top 30 WR
As it stands now, Hunter’s expert consensus ranking is outside the top 100 at the position so this is without question super duper DUPER bold. Sign me up anytime you can find a receiver who had both 51 snaps in Week 1 and is playing in a game with what may end up the highest over/under on the season. After all, Hunter saw 67 air yards in Week 1 which was quite a bit more than even JuJu Smith-Schuster. He will fly under the radar in DFS this week, but may have a surprise outing.
Final Prediction: 4 receptions, 65 yards, 1 TD
Thanks for reading and happy football season!
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