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Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 6 (Fantasy Football)

Oct 9, 2018

Clay Matthews and the Packers should eat up the 49ers

I freakin’ love football. It seems like insane things happen every week. Tre’Quan Smith doesn’t get to keep the ball from his first career touchdown because it was also the play that earned Drew Brees the all-time passing yards record. Josh Gordon caught a long touchdown from Tom Brady in double coverage and suddenly it’s 2013 again when life was simple and radio stations wouldn’t stop playing Thrift Shop (did you know NFL Game Pass lets you watch every touchdown of Josh Gordon’s career every night before bed?). Marcus Maye recorded the longest non-TD interception return in NFL history, getting tackled on the 1-yard line after running from the opposite end zone. The top fantasy quarterbacks were Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady (crazy, right?). The Browns had yet another overtime game, and they won this time! Marshawn Lynch’s team decided not to hand him the ball on the 1-yard line, opting to throw an interception instead.

Show Me Your Ranks

Unlike weeks 4 and 5, it seems like there’s actually a decent number of good options this week. However, because several of the top options are actually good defenses (not just teams playing bad offenses), their ownership is pretty high. As always, I’m happy to answer questions on Twitter.

Rank Team Opponent O/U Spread PA Sack Turnovers TD FPTS Own%
The Start Them With Confidence Tier
1 MIN ARI 43 -10.5 16.25 2.45 1.51 0.15 8.01 86%
2 HOU BUF 43.5* -8.5 17.5 2.98 1.34 0.16 7.91 83%
3 LAC @CLE 44.5 -1 21.75 2.68 1.64 0.20 7.51 67%
4 GB SF 46.5 -9.5 18.5 2.54 1.42 0.14 7.22 52%
5 CHI @MIA 42 -3 19.5 1.83 1.54 0.22 7.03 92%
6 BAL @TEN 41 -3 19 2.07 1.35 0.20 6.84 39%
7 JAC @DAL 42.5 -3 19.75 2.24 1.28 0.20 6.76 99%
The Still a Fine Choice Tier
8 LAR @DEN 52.5 -7 22.75 2.34 1.60 0.17 6.75 100%
9 PHI @NYG 44 -3 20.5 2.30 1.36 0.19 6.74 94%
10 NYJ IND 45 -2.5 21.25 2.68 1.23 0.10 6.22 22%
The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier
11 SEA @OAK 47.5 -3 22.25 1.90 1.51 0.16 6.19 22%
12 MIA CHI 42 3 22.5 2.63 1.27 0.13 6.17 9%
13 NYG PHI 44 3 23.5 2.72 1.31 0.12 6.15 4%
14 CAR @WAS 45.5 -1 22.25 2.17 1.41 0.15 6.14 82%
15 BUF @HOU 43.5 8.5 26 2.77 1.47 0.13 6.12 2%
16 IND @NYJ 45 2.5 23.75 2.32 1.38 0.14 5.90 3%
17 OAK SEA 47.5 3 25.25 2.94 1.31 0.09 5.87 2%
18 DAL JAC 42.5 3 22.75 2.02 1.38 0.12 5.67 16%
19 ATL TB 57.5 -3.5 27 2.52 1.58 0.08 5.60 20%
20 WAS CAR 45.5 1 23.25 2.17 1.31 0.11 5.52 4%
21 TEN BAL 41 3 22 2.06 1.20 0.11 5.47 84%
22 CIN PIT 53 -2.5 25.25 2.15 1.33 0.13 5.34 34%
23 SF @GB 46.5 9.5 28 2.65 1.38 0.11 5.29 45%
24 CLE LAC 44.5 1 22.75 1.92 1.23 0.11 5.23 32%
25 ARI @MIN 43 10.5 26.75 2.18 1.24 0.10 4.73 17%
26 PIT @CIN 53 2.5 27.75 1.86 1.30 0.10 4.34 45%
27 NE KC 59 -3.5 27.75 2.07 1.21 0.07 4.20 70%
28 DEN LAR 52.5 7 29.75 2.16 1.20 0.08 3.88 81%
29 TB @ATL 57.5 3.5 30.5 2.19 1.17 0.10 3.78 1%
30 KC @NE 59 3.5 31.25 2.07 1.22 0.10 3.56 14%

 
*While Houston’s spread of -8.5 over Buffalo is real, there is no publicly available over-under. 43.5 is a guess on my part, based on the totals both teams have had so far this year. I will update this article when a total becomes available if it has a significant impact on my rankings. I would be very surprised if Houston dropped out of the top tier.

Tell Me About The Top Picks

  1. MIN vs ARI: This is the second week in a row that our top choice has been the team facing Arizona. They only put up 22 points against a bad defense (San Francisco) last week, and now they have to face a much better (even if not as good as we thought they’d be in the preseason) Vikings defense.
  2. HOU vs BUF: After Arizona, Buffalo is the next best team to target, and they are also heavy underdogs on the road this week. Houston is a great play if you have them.
  3. LAC @ CLE: Even with the strides they’ve made this year, Cleveland is seriously handicapped by their play calling. They are also sack-happy – Cleveland has allowed more than 4 sacks per game this year, including 5 last week. The Chargers should be a high-floor play.
  4. GB vs SF: When the NFL scheduled this game for Monday Night Football, I imagine they expected it to be more competitive. With basically everyone injured, the 49ers now have to go to Lambeau and face the first team on this list that has a solid chance of being available in your league.
  5. CHI @ MIA: I’m always entertained by TV promos for NFL games, where they announce “<player name> and the <team> take on <player name> and the <team>,” especially when the player they decide to highlight is on the defensive side of the ball. They were already saying “Khalil Mack and the Bears” before he took a single snap for that team. Now they get to face Frank Gore (?) and the Dolphins, who are on a two-game losing streak where they’ve only scored 24 points, including only 7 against a Patriots defense that’s not nearly as good as the Bears (two games is a streak, right?).
  6. BAL @ TEN: There are a lot of road favorites this week. Despite how much the fantasy community wants Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis and Corey Davis to be good, the Titans offense has only surpassed 20 points once.
  7. JAC @ DAL: If you held onto Jacksonville through their visit with the greatest athlete of all time Patrick Mahomes, and you should have, they get another good matchup this week against a Dallas team with like, no receivers (it’s hard for Jacksonville’s defense to find a bad matchup).
  8. LAR @ DEN: This is the first team I don’t feel super confident about starting. The Rams defense has been disappointing over the last two weeks despite good-on-paper matchups. Fortunately, the Broncos are really bad. Last week they only put 16 points on the Jets. Before that the Chiefs – the worst defense in the league – held them to 23 points. Before that, they only scored 14 points against Baltimore. Denver is not a scary place.
  9. PHI @ NYG: Speaking of teams that don’t know how to draft quarterbacks, the Giants are a football team. The Eagles defense hasn’t been quite as good as last year, but they’re still good enough to take advantage of the Giants.
  10. NYJ vs IND: The Jets defense has been a pleasant surprise this season, and now they’re favorites at home against a Colts team for whom there’s a real possibility that Chester Rodgers is their #1 receiver.

How Did We Do Last Week?

We had a couple duds last week – San Francisco held Arizona to 22 points, but only earned 1 fantasy point for their trouble thanks to a lack of turnovers and sacks. The Rams allowed the Seahawks to get back on track to the tune of 31 points, and didn’t have any turnovers to make up for it. The rest of our starters met expectations though. Congratulations if you were there for the Benals’ two defensive touchdowns.

Rank Team Opponent O/U Spread Proj. FPTS Act. FPTS
The Start Them With Confidence Tier
1 SF ARI 41 -4.5 7.44 1
2 TEN @BUF 39 -3.5 7.36 7
3 BAL @CLE 47.5 -3 7.01 11
4 NYJ DEN 43 -2.5 6.99 7
5 CAR NYG 44.5 -7 6.96 12
6 LAR @SEA 50.5 -7 6.7 1
The Still a Fine Choice Tier
7 HOU DAL 45 -3.5 6.5 7
8 PHI MIN 44.5 -3 6.5 4
The Maybe You Can’t Find Something Better Tier
9 BUF TEN 39 3.5 6.38 12
10 DEN @NYJ 43 2.5 6.27 4
11 CIN MIA 50 -6 6.27 22
12 NO WAS 52.5 -6.5 6.22 8

 
Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.


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