Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 6 (Fantasy Football)

I freakin’ love football. It seems like insane things happen every week. Tre’Quan Smith doesn’t get to keep the ball from his first career touchdown because it was also the play that earned Drew Brees the all-time passing yards record. Josh Gordon caught a long touchdown from Tom Brady in double coverage and suddenly it’s 2013 again when life was simple and radio stations wouldn’t stop playing Thrift Shop (did you know NFL Game Pass lets you watch every touchdown of Josh Gordon’s career every night before bed?). Marcus Maye recorded the longest non-TD interception return in NFL history, getting tackled on the 1-yard line after running from the opposite end zone. The top fantasy quarterbacks were Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady (crazy, right?). The Browns had yet another overtime game, and they won this time! Marshawn Lynch’s team decided not to hand him the ball on the 1-yard line, opting to throw an interception instead.

Show Me Your Ranks

Unlike weeks 4 and 5, it seems like there’s actually a decent number of good options this week. However, because several of the top options are actually good defenses (not just teams playing bad offenses), their ownership is pretty high. As always, I’m happy to answer questions on Twitter.

Rank	Team	Opponent	O/U	Spread	PA	Sack	Turnovers	TD	FPTS	Own%
The Start Them With Confidence Tier
1	MIN	ARI	43	-10.5	16.25	2.45	1.51	0.15	8.01	86%
2	HOU	BUF	43.5*	-8.5	17.5	2.98	1.34	0.16	7.91	83%
3	LAC	@CLE	44.5	-1	21.75	2.68	1.64	0.20	7.51	67%
4	GB	SF	46.5	-9.5	18.5	2.54	1.42	0.14	7.22	52%
5	CHI	@MIA	42	-3	19.5	1.83	1.54	0.22	7.03	92%
6	BAL	@TEN	41	-3	19	2.07	1.35	0.20	6.84	39%
7	JAC	@DAL	42.5	-3	19.75	2.24	1.28	0.20	6.76	99%
The Still a Fine Choice Tier
8	LAR	@DEN	52.5	-7	22.75	2.34	1.60	0.17	6.75	100%
9	PHI	@NYG	44	-3	20.5	2.30	1.36	0.19	6.74	94%
10	NYJ	IND	45	-2.5	21.25	2.68	1.23	0.10	6.22	22%
The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier
11	SEA	@OAK	47.5	-3	22.25	1.90	1.51	0.16	6.19	22%
12	MIA	CHI	42	3	22.5	2.63	1.27	0.13	6.17	9%
13	NYG	PHI	44	3	23.5	2.72	1.31	0.12	6.15	4%
14	CAR	@WAS	45.5	-1	22.25	2.17	1.41	0.15	6.14	82%
15	BUF	@HOU	43.5	8.5	26	2.77	1.47	0.13	6.12	2%
16	IND	@NYJ	45	2.5	23.75	2.32	1.38	0.14	5.90	3%
17	OAK	SEA	47.5	3	25.25	2.94	1.31	0.09	5.87	2%
18	DAL	JAC	42.5	3	22.75	2.02	1.38	0.12	5.67	16%
19	ATL	TB	57.5	-3.5	27	2.52	1.58	0.08	5.60	20%
20	WAS	CAR	45.5	1	23.25	2.17	1.31	0.11	5.52	4%
21	TEN	BAL	41	3	22	2.06	1.20	0.11	5.47	84%
22	CIN	PIT	53	-2.5	25.25	2.15	1.33	0.13	5.34	34%
23	SF	@GB	46.5	9.5	28	2.65	1.38	0.11	5.29	45%
24	CLE	LAC	44.5	1	22.75	1.92	1.23	0.11	5.23	32%
25	ARI	@MIN	43	10.5	26.75	2.18	1.24	0.10	4.73	17%
26	PIT	@CIN	53	2.5	27.75	1.86	1.30	0.10	4.34	45%
27	NE	KC	59	-3.5	27.75	2.07	1.21	0.07	4.20	70%
28	DEN	LAR	52.5	7	29.75	2.16	1.20	0.08	3.88	81%
29	TB	@ATL	57.5	3.5	30.5	2.19	1.17	0.10	3.78	1%
30	KC	@NE	59	3.5	31.25	2.07	1.22	0.10	3.56	14%

*While Houston’s spread of -8.5 over Buffalo is real, there is no publicly available over-under. 43.5 is a guess on my part, based on the totals both teams have had so far this year. I will update this article when a total becomes available if it has a significant impact on my rankings. I would be very surprised if Houston dropped out of the top tier.

Tell Me About The Top Picks

MIN vs ARI: This is the second week in a row that our top choice has been the team facing Arizona. They only put up 22 points against a bad defense (San Francisco) last week, and now they have to face a much better (even if not as good as we thought they’d be in the preseason) Vikings defense.
HOU vs BUF: After Arizona, Buffalo is the next best team to target, and they are also heavy underdogs on the road this week. Houston is a great play if you have them.
LAC @ CLE: Even with the strides they’ve made this year, Cleveland is seriously handicapped by their play calling. They are also sack-happy – Cleveland has allowed more than 4 sacks per game this year, including 5 last week. The Chargers should be a high-floor play.
GB vs SF: When the NFL scheduled this game for Monday Night Football, I imagine they expected it to be more competitive. With basically everyone injured, the 49ers now have to go to Lambeau and face the first team on this list that has a solid chance of being available in your league.
CHI @ MIA: I’m always entertained by TV promos for NFL games, where they announce “<player name> and the <team> take on <player name> and the <team>,” especially when the player they decide to highlight is on the defensive side of the ball. They were already saying “Khalil Mack and the Bears” before he took a single snap for that team. Now they get to face Frank Gore (?) and the Dolphins, who are on a two-game losing streak where they’ve only scored 24 points, including only 7 against a Patriots defense that’s not nearly as good as the Bears (two games is a streak, right?).
BAL @ TEN: There are a lot of road favorites this week. Despite how much the fantasy community wants Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis and Corey Davis to be good, the Titans offense has only surpassed 20 points once.
JAC @ DAL: If you held onto Jacksonville through their visit with the greatest athlete of all time Patrick Mahomes, and you should have, they get another good matchup this week against a Dallas team with like, no receivers (it’s hard for Jacksonville’s defense to find a bad matchup).
LAR @ DEN: This is the first team I don’t feel super confident about starting. The Rams defense has been disappointing over the last two weeks despite good-on-paper matchups. Fortunately, the Broncos are really bad. Last week they only put 16 points on the Jets. Before that the Chiefs – the worst defense in the league – held them to 23 points. Before that, they only scored 14 points against Baltimore. Denver is not a scary place.
PHI @ NYG: Speaking of teams that don’t know how to draft quarterbacks, the Giants are a football team. The Eagles defense hasn’t been quite as good as last year, but they’re still good enough to take advantage of the Giants.
NYJ vs IND: The Jets defense has been a pleasant surprise this season, and now they’re favorites at home against a Colts team for whom there’s a real possibility that Chester Rodgers is their #1 receiver.

How Did We Do Last Week?

We had a couple duds last week – San Francisco held Arizona to 22 points, but only earned 1 fantasy point for their trouble thanks to a lack of turnovers and sacks. The Rams allowed the Seahawks to get back on track to the tune of 31 points, and didn’t have any turnovers to make up for it. The rest of our starters met expectations though. Congratulations if you were there for the Benals’ two defensive touchdowns.

Rank	Team	Opponent	O/U	Spread	Proj. FPTS	Act. FPTS
The Start Them With Confidence Tier
1	SF	ARI	41	-4.5	7.44	1
2	TEN	@BUF	39	-3.5	7.36	7
3	BAL	@CLE	47.5	-3	7.01	11
4	NYJ	DEN	43	-2.5	6.99	7
5	CAR	NYG	44.5	-7	6.96	12
6	LAR	@SEA	50.5	-7	6.7	1
The Still a Fine Choice Tier
7	HOU	DAL	45	-3.5	6.5	7
8	PHI	MIN	44.5	-3	6.5	4
The Maybe You Can’t Find Something Better Tier
9	BUF	TEN	39	3.5	6.38	12
10	DEN	@NYJ	43	2.5	6.27	4
11	CIN	MIA	50	-6	6.27	22
12	NO	WAS	52.5	-6.5	6.22	8

Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.

NFL Tre’Quan Smith Drew Brees Josh Gordon Tom Brady Marcus Maye Aaron Rodgers Marshawn Lynch’s Khalil Mack Frank Gore Derrick Henry Dion Lewis Corey Davis Patrick Mahomes Chester Rodgers