Players to Fade on FanDuel: Week 11
Welcome to another edition of Players to Fade on FanDuel. It’s another week with six teams on BYE, which means another 10-game main slate awaits. DFS is harder than ever these days, and we need every edge we can get. It’s necessary to not only narrow it down to the best plays, but also be aware of who to avoid on a week-to-week basis. I’ll do my best each week to identify some of the players that could end up being landmines that sink our FanDuel lineups. Whether overpriced or in a bad spot, here’s a list of players I’m avoiding in Week 11. Let’s get to it!
Phillip Rivers (LAC): $8,100 vs. DEN
Quarterback pricing on FanDuel has been elevated for some time now. While Rivers is having a good season, I can’t endorse paying over $8,000 for him against the Broncos this week. Denver is allowing fewer points to QBs on the road than they are at home at 15.7 points per game. When you consider the way to beat the Broncos is on the ground, it’s a much better idea to look at his teammate, Melvin Gordon for exposure to this offense. You could get away with Tyrell or Mike Williams on the outside as the weakness of the Denver secondary is the perimeter. However, the Williams boys aren’t getting enough important targets this year. The only sure thing is Keenan Allen’s role, but more on that later…
Adrian Peterson (WAS): $6,300 vs. HOU
A.P. or A.D., whatever you want to call him, is nursing a shoulder injury that has had him limited at practice all week. He’s expected to play, but considering the matchup and the injuries, I can’t play Peterson this week. I say injuries because of how beat up Washington’s offensive line has been. This team has suffered injuries to three of their starting five and even lost Trent Williams’ backup last week as well. They’ve signed guys like Jonathan Cooper to fill the void, but he showed last week that he’s a bit rusty and it’ll take time for this line to be somewhat cohesive. The Texans boast the top-ranked DVOA run defense, giving up the second lowest yards per carry in the league. They’re giving up a stingy 8.8 fantasy points per game to opposing RB1s on the road and that’s ridiculously low, about half the league average. Too many reasons to stay away from the future HOFer.
Any Eagles Running Back
Just wanted to make a quick note to say that almost no one in the industry has a grasp on how this fantasy nightmare of a committee is going to play out. There are simply too many cooks in the backfield kitchen at this point and the matchup against the Saints elite run stopping defense is too much of a dart throw to even consider playing in tournaments, let alone cash games. Stay away! Don’t get cute, fade the Philly RBs completely and invested your DFS dollars elsewhere. After all, we saw what New Orleans did to Joe Mixon last week. Speaking of that…
Joe Mixon (CIN): $7,300 @ BAL
This is the second week in a row that Mixon ended up here. Last week, he was disappointing in a major way. This week, the matchup is just as tough against a Ravens team that completely took him out of the passing game in their first meeting this season. Stats show that the second meeting between two divisional opponents is typically lower scoring affairs that the previous encounter. I strongly believe in this trend and also view this week’s matchup between two offenses that have struggled mightily compared to the first month of the season when they were humming along and scoring points at an exciting clip. The Ravens run D checks in as the fifth-ranked DVOA unit and Mixon will need to score twice to pay off his salary. I don’t think he has the same success as he did (84 rush yards Week 2) the first time these teams met as he’s dealing with a knee injury as well.
A.J. Green (CIN): $8,000 @ BAL
Take everything I said about Mixon and those same reasons are why I’m not high on Green this week. As solid as the Ravens defense has been against the run this season, they’re even better at limiting opposing passing attacks. Green has historically blown up on the Ravens in the first meeting of the year and followed with an absolute dud in the rematch when he’s traditionally been higher-owned due to the recent history. This is a perfect example of how these divisional games end up being less productive from a fantasy standpoint. The price is simply too high for me with Green coming off his own injury. Head Coach Marvin Lewis was “hopeful” that he’d have Green this Sunday, but he’s not a lock to play. On FanDuel, we’d need to not only be hopeful but lucky to have Green pay off that price tag and another triple TD performance is simply improbable. That’s wishing and dreaming.
Keenan Allen (LAC): $7,600 vs. DEN
I mentioned how I’m fading Rivers and the Chargers passing game. The main reason is the high concentration of target market share being funneled to Allen makes it hard to play the secondary and tertiary options. This week could be tough sledding for Allen as he matches up against one of the NFL’s premier slot corners in Chris Harris. Some have portrayed WR-CB matchups to be a bit overblown of late, which I agree with to an extent. But in certain obvious situations like this, it’s bound to have a negative influence on the player’s performance. In the six meetings between Allen and Harris, the Chargers wideout does have four touchdowns, but he’s struggled considerably, posting an average of 39.5 yards per game. His best performance against Harris was a 9-73-1 effort in which Harris also intercepted Rivers in that same game, thwarting a drive and ruining the day for the Chargers.
Golden Tate (PHI): $6,600 @ NO
Tate’s departure from Detroit has left him in an uncertain role in an offense that is routinely getting off to slow starts and sputtering of late. The Eagles attempt to bolster the receiving corps is a bit puzzling considering the addition of Tate now gives them three slot WRs and Alshon Jeffery. While it’s not the worst scenario for Tate, it’s tough to see him having more than a couple big games in the second half of the season. His performance last week against Dallas was very indicative of what could likely be a muddled passing game. He’s the fourth option on this offense behind Zach Ertz who has been a target hog and a fantasy monster. I do expect Tate’s target share to increase very soon but not to the point where we’d pay this price for him. He’s priced as if he’s still in Detroit and even then I can’t spend this much for him. In a game with an implied total of 56 points, Tate offers some potential as a GPP flier, but by no means should you be playing him in cash games.
Eric Ebron (IND): $6,000 vs. TEN
Regression to the mean is in store for Eric Ebron. As a scorned Lions fan, it’s tough to see him be so productive for another team. In this tight end fantasy-friendly offense, it’s not a surprise he’s had success. That said, he’s on an incredibly unsustainable scoring pace. He caught three passes last week and ran in one of his three scores. Three-touchdown performances are few and far between for non-quarterbacks. Don’t get caught chasing the points from Week 10. The Colts run more plays per game than anyone in the league so their quick offense is always going to lend itself to more opportunities for Ebron. However, if you’re looking for exposure to the uptempo Colts, I’d rather play his teammate, Jack Doyle, at $600 less. You should also know that Tennessee has been lights out (2.7 PPG) against the TE position, so the Colts duo isn’t really viable in cash games this week.
Josh Dalley is a DFS correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, follow him on Twitter @JoshDalley72.