Monday night delivers a nine-game slate in the Association. Now that players have started to settle into the rotation for their new clubs following the trade deadline, things have returned to be at least a little more predictable. Beware of the double-digit favorites on Monday’s slate with four games featuring blowout potential including the Raptors, Rockets, Bucks, and Nuggets. As such, I’m more interested in attacking some of the other games on the slate.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
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One Stud
Paul George (SF/PF – OKC): $10,300 vs. POR
On a slate with James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, it feels strange to bypass all of them but that is what I purpose you do on Monday night. Instead, I’d recommend trying to get two players from the next tier, headlined by Paul George. George has been putting up massive production and is coming off a game with 45 points and 11 rebounds. He has lit up the Trail Blazers in two previous meeting this season with 36.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, he gets a great game environment in a matchup that is projected to be fairly close with the highest Vegas total on the slate.
Monday night delivers a nine-game slate in the Association. Now that players have started to settle into the rotation for their new clubs following the trade deadline, things have returned to be at least a little more predictable. Beware of the double-digit favorites on Monday’s slate with four games featuring blowout potential including the Raptors, Rockets, Bucks, and Nuggets. As such, I’m more interested in attacking some of the other games on the slate.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
One Stud
Paul George (SF/PF – OKC): $10,300 vs. POR
On a slate with James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Giannis Antetokounmpo, it feels strange to bypass all of them but that is what I purpose you do on Monday night. Instead, I’d recommend trying to get two players from the next tier, headlined by Paul George. George has been putting up massive production and is coming off a game with 45 points and 11 rebounds. He has lit up the Trail Blazers in two previous meeting this season with 36.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, he gets a great game environment in a matchup that is projected to be fairly close with the highest Vegas total on the slate.
Core Plays
Karl-Anthony Towns (C – MIN): $10,000 vs. LAC
Saving a few bucks with the “one stud” should hopefully allow you to get a second five-digit salaried stud like Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns and the Timberwolves are in a game with probably the second-best scoring environment of the night with a close line and the second highest Vegas total on the docket. Towns has at least 26 points and eight rebounds in each of his last four games while putting up at least 49 DK points in each outing. He draws a very favorable matchup against the Clippers who have allowed increased production to opposing big men this season in points (+4.5%), rebounds (+8.1%), assists (+2.2%), and blocks (+25.9%).
Dennis Smith Jr. (PG – NYK): $6,400 @ CLE
Smith has been given the keys to the Knicks offense since his arrival. Over his last three games, he has put up 23.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 6.7 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Smith has topped 33 DK points in each of those outings which gives him a floor of five times his current salary. He gets a favorable matchup on Monday against the Cavaliers who have given up a small increase in production across the board to PGs this season.
Larry Nance Jr. (PF/C – CLE): $5,900 vs. NY
This spot was a toss-up between Larry Nance Jr. and Danilo Gallinari who are similarly priced. My only hesitation with Nance is the return of Kevin Love and how many minutes he may see on Monday. Love only played six minutes on Friday before sitting out Saturday’s game. As long as Love only get about 10 minutes or fewer on Monday, then I think Nance is a safe play in a plus matchup against the Knicks who have allowed increased points (+7.8%) and rebounds (+6.3%) to PFs this season. Nance has posted five straight double-doubles while putting up at least 30 DK points in each of those games.
Jabari Parker (SF/PF – WAS): $5,600 @ DET
Jabari Paker has fit right in with the Wizards since they acquired him at the deadline. In the last two games, Parker has averaged 13.5 points, 8.0 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game. He played 34 minutes in the last outing and should see 30-plus minutes going forward including Monday against the Pistons. That much playing time and his overall production sets him up for success as a mid-priced value play with some position flexibility.
Value Plays
Tim Hardaway Jr. (SG/SF – DAL): $5,000 @ HOU
I’m not sure that the deal is but I’m digging all of the “Juniors” on Monday slate as Tim Hardaway Jr. is my third recommend junior. This junior has begun to adapt to his new home in Dallas with 24 points in 32 minutes on Sunday. He’ll need a similar effort against the Rockets on Monday for the Mavericks to stay competitive as a double-digit dog. The Rockets have given up increased production in points (+5.9%) and rebounds (+5.4%) to SGs this season, so it could be another 20-plus point game for Hardaway Jr.
Collin Sexton (PG – CLE): $4,900 vs. NY
As long as DraftKings is going to keep pricing Collin Sexton under $5k, I’m going to keep rostering him. He has put up at least 27 DK points in three straight outings while still putting up 16 points, five rebounds, and four assists in a tough matchup against the Pacers on Saturday. He gets a much easier matchup on Monday with the Knicks coming to town who are a neutral scoring matchup but give up increased production in rebounds (+8.0%) and assists (+6.3%) to PGs this season. Sexton should get big minutes in a close game.
Dion Waiters (SG/SF – MIA): $4,100 @ DEN
With the Heat dealing away some of their guard depth at the deadline it has opened up playing time for Dion Waiters. Waiters played 41 minutes on Sunday and responded with 24 points including six three-pointers. Scoring is his main asset, but he should be able to continue to provide points against the Nuggets who have allowed a small uptick in scoring to SGs this season.
Nerlens Noel (C – OKC): $3,400 / Patrick Patterson (PF/C – OKC): $3,300 vs. POR
There could be some deep value at PF for the Thunder on Monday night if Jerami Grant misses the game. His absence would open up minutes for some combination of Patrick Patterson and Nerlens Noel at near minimum salary. Watch the news leading up to tipoff closely to see who get the start or what type of rotation the Thunder may use if Grant is out against the Blazers.
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Brad Richter is a Featured Writer and Correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.
