Players to Target for Stolen Bases (2019 Fantasy Baseball)

Noting MLB’s league-wide decline in stolen bases in hardly new terrain. Everyone already knows that steals are harder to find. The question is how drafters should process this information.

Only 11 players stole 30 or more bases last season, which actually marked a substantial improvement from 2017’s six. Yet the amount of 20-base stealers dipped from 29 to 28. With fewer steady contributors, drafters are driving up the prices on wholesale suppliers. Here’s a look at where last year’s 30-base stealers (eliminating the elite hitters taken inside the top 40) are going in NFBC drafts since Jan. 1.

 
For all the (often overrated) talk of positional scarcity, category scarcity is a bigger deal to consider. Limited steals should motivate drafters to seek early-round cornerstones who can produce on the basepaths. Based on these trends, Lorenzo Cain makes a strong early value for his rare blend of contact, speed, and run-scoring prowess. On the bright side, this decrease also makes it easier to stay competitive for those who can gradually collect steals throughout the draft.

Grabbing a few occasional runners, of course, isn’t always enough. While some game-changing speed remains available late, drafters must be willing to accept their shortcomings. If not pure one-trick acts, the following players come at lower costs because of playing time and/or batting order concerns. Beggars can’t be choosers, so consider these players, warts and all, if needing a late speed jolt.

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Amed Rosario (SS – NYM)
If only the Mets didn’t start trying. Written off remarkably early after a sluggish start, Rosario rebounded to bat .284 with five home runs and 15 steals in the final two months. Although he notched a subpar .299 wOBA when handed the leadoff role, he ran wild (16-of-21 stolen bases) in 58 games atop the lineup.

He won’t reclaim that spot to start 2019, as the Mets added Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos, and Robinson Cano to a lineup already boasting Brandon Nimmo, whose .404 OBP makes him a resoundingly better leadoff option. Manager Micky Callaway has already said he plans to bat Rosario eighth, where the shortstop mustered just two steals in 2018. Let’s hope that amounts to an insignificant small sample size incurred before he caught fire down the stretch.

The role dampens Rosario’s breakout appeal, and depreciated scoring opportunities should deter drafters from reaching. Yet his 150 consensus ADP reflects this concern, as the 23-year-old would represent a strong 10-30 candidate if setting the table. He could still swipe 20-25 bags, and there’s always the chance he ascends up the card because of strong performance and/or injuries. Rosario is still an alluring middle-infield target for drafters light on speed.

Billy Hamilton (OF – KC)
This could be the year to take Hamilton, who’s finally available well beyond the top-100 picks after stealing 34 bases with a .299 OBP last season. Although a terrible hitter, his glove should keep him starting in center field for the listless Royals. Only four teams attempted more stolen bases last year, and they’re the favorite to top the leaderboard with Hamilton and Adalberto Mondesi batting atop the order. Concerned about Hamilton falling to the bottom of the lineup card? Ned Yost inked Alcides Escobar into the No. 1 spot on their World Series squads despite a sub-.300 OBP.

Your draft needs to break a certain way to seek out Hamilton in the middle rounds, but he’s a relatively cheap and stable bet for 40 steals with a real shot of jumping back to the 55-60 range.

Byron Buxton (OF – MIN)
There’s not enough of a discount to comfortably stand by Buxton, who is still going around the pick-200 range despite recording a minus-3 wRC+ in 94 big league plate appearances this season. Even the most biased Twins fan should have given up hope of him morphing into the next Mike Trout, but perhaps he could still overcome an anemic average with power and elite speed like a peak version of Melvin Upton Jr.

Look, there’s no magic metric to suggest Buxton will improve at the plate enough to even maintain a starting job in 2019. This is just the case of chasing an elite talent’s sky-high upside. The former top prospect stole 29 bases in 2017, and his Statcast Sprint Speed (30.5 feet per second) led all big leaguers last season. For those in need of a late Hail Mary, there’s a timeline–albeit an increasingly unlikely scenario–where the 25-year-old swipes 40 bags with 20 homers. Just prepare to extend him a short leash, especially now that the Twins have another outfield insurance policy in the newly signed Marwin Gonzalez. And don’t overboard if a hot start to spring training gives drafters amnesia and shoots his price up again.

Garrett Hampson (2B – COL)
If he had a starting job, Hampson would push closer to a top-100 ADP than 200. Competing with Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers for Colorado’s starting second-base gig, there’s enough uncertainty for him to fall through the seams in early drafts.

If he wins the Opening Day role, the 24-year-old would make a major mark. Described by Rockies manager Bud Black as a “gritty little gamer,” the 5’11”, 185-pound middle infielder stole 38 bases in 43 tries across all levels last year. That was after poaching 51 bags in Single-A the previous year. During his brief time in the majors, he recorded the eighth-fastest Statcast Sprint Speed (30.0 ft/second).

He’s not a one-trick pony either. Hampson has hit .315/.389/.457 in three minor league seasons, never once falling below a .300 average. He’d likely start at the bottom of Colorado’s batting order, but he possesses the skills to conceivably work his way up. As long as he’s slotted somewhere in the starting lineup, Hampson could bat .280 with 20 steals with room for much more.

Delino DeShields (OF – TEX)
Impressed by his promising debut, DeShields burned me bad in 2016. I nevertheless jumped back on board last year after he hit .269/.347/.367 with 29 steals in 2017. Allow Gob Bluth to tell you how that went.

It’s only human to avoid heartache after getting gashed twice. Yet instead of falling for the hype and paying full price for his ups, drafters can now pay pennies for a player who has tested everyone’s patience too many times. He’s going undrafted in most spots and holds a 382 ADP in NFBC drafts despite recent upticks for premium speedsters.

Sure, Deshields hit .216 with a 61 wRC+ last season. He also recorded 20 steals with a 10.9% walk rate, so the skills that have previously tempted drafters didn’t disintegrate. Although it didn’t yield any positive results, he even lowered his strikeouts (21.1%) while posting a career-high 81.1% contact rate. If his .280 BABIP improves closer to his career .319 clip, he could at least hit in the .240-.250 range. Because of his glove–Willie Calhoun certainly can’t handle center field–and batting eye, that might be enough for him to hold a starting job in Texas.

If everything breaks right, investors could snag 25-30 steals from DeShields at virtually no cost. Just remember not to spend an inflated price on a repeat next year.

Greg Allen, Leonys Martin, and Bradley Zimmer (OF – CLE)
I couldn’t choose one, so here’s Cleveland’s entire outfield. Keep in mind that Tyler Naquin will also contend for a starting spot, and there’s still time to sign a veteran (Adam Jones, Denard Span, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Gomez) off free agency. It seems absurd for a title contender not to address such a glaring area for improvement, but deep-league drafters could profit from the club’s frugality.

For someone who has a path to a starting job after stockpiling 21 steals in 91 games, Allen isn’t getting much attention. He doesn’t even have an ADP listed for ESPN, and NFBC drafters are taking the plunge at pick 328. The lack of interest is understandable, as he’s the quintessential one-category contributor. Allen hit .257 /.310/.343 with two homers, 36 runs, 20 RBI, a 75 wRC+, and 0.0 fWAR. He also batted .296 with 15 steals during the final two months, and good luck finding reasonable 20-steal candidates this late.

Currently projected to bat leadoff by Rosters Resource, Martin could contribute more across the board. Last year, he posted a 103 wRC+ with 11 homers and seven steals in 84 games. Although no longer a candidate for 30 steals, he poached 25 bags for Seattle’s Triple-A squad in 2017 and has now stolen 14 bases over his last 133 major league games. There’s sneaky 20-steal upside if Cleveland actually opens with him atop the lineup.

Zimmer has gone from a trendy sleeper to afterthought in a blink of an eye. His strikeout rate rose to untenable heights (38.6%) in 2018, but he only needed .a .307 OBP to steal 18 bases in 101 games as a rookie. NFBC and AL-only drafters should especially keep him in mind.

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