While the corner infield spot across the diamond (1B) has suddenly become surprisingly shallow, the state of third base remains strong. It’s a position with two guys going in the first six picks of most fantasy drafts in Jose Ramirez and Nolan Arenado, a once and (perhaps) future MVP in Kris Bryant, and two of the game’s best prospects in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Nick Senzel.
A few elite hitters we covered in the shortstop primer — Manny Machado, Javier Baez, and Alex Bregman — also qualify here. Given the comparable strength of the shortstop position, it is not inconceivable that the Machado, Baez, or Bregman owner in your league will choose to use them at 3B more often than not. Adding these players to the mix further boosts the tremendous depth available at third base in 2019.
In terms of categories, third base is generally not the place to look for stolen bases, unless you’re lucky enough to draft Ramirez (or perhaps Baez or Wil Myers). The position also only supplied a single .300 hitter last year, Anthony Rendon. But when it comes to power, 3B is the place to go. There are more than a dozen third basemen with a realistic shot at 30+ home runs this season.
Despite the ample depth at the position, it is not unwise to invest an early round pick in one of the top-tier third basemen. The first six-to-eight third baseman are capable of providing balanced production across all five rotisserie league categories, whereas the third basemen going in later rounds tend to be HR and RBI specialists.
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The Cream Of The Crop: Nolan Arenado, Jose Ramirez
When it comes to elite production that you can bank on year in and year out, look no further than Arenado. Some people will quibble that his lack of steals makes him a four-category player, but that hasn’t stopped Arenado from producing four straight seasons as a top-10 overall hitter in standard 5×5 leagues. The only other knock on Arenado is that he is much better in the thin air of Coors Field, but fresh off a record-breaking contract extension, fantasy owners no longer need to worry about the possibility of a mid-season trade out of Colorado. You can write it down in marker that he will provide around 40 home runs, 100 runs, 110 RBIs, and a batting average in the .290 range, making Arenado a nice bargain at his average draft position (ADP) of 6.8.
Ramirez was the fourth-most valuable player in standard 5×5 leagues last season, according to Baseball Monster, trailing only J.D. Martinez, Christian Yelich, and Mookie Betts. And that was with a .270 batting average that was 15 points below Ramirez’s career .285 mark, due to an abnormally low .252 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). While Ramirez’s average is very likely to rise, his career-high 39 home runs and 34 stolen bases should go in the opposite direction. Still, we’re talking about a player who can produce a 30-20 season with a plus batting average. It’s hard to argue too much with his current ADP of third overall behind Betts and Mike Trout, although Arenado’s reliability gives him a very slight edge over Ramirez in my book.
More Elite Options: Manny Machado, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Alex Bregman
There’s no shame in being in the second tier at third base — these guys would all be considered among the “cream of the crop” at most other positions. In fact, Machado, Baez, and Bregman all made the top tier in my shortstop primer — and all finished as top-12 hitters last year in standard 5×5 leagues.
As for Bryant, he’s currently going outside the top-30 picks in fantasy drafts, which could well be the cheapest he’ll come at draft tables for a long time. Bryant appeared to be on the verge of establishing himself as a perennial first round fantasy pick following his MVP 2016 season. While his home run total dropped from 39 to 29 in 2017, it seemed like an outlier as his production remained otherwise excellent. But the bottom really fell out last season, as Bryant struggled through a shoulder injury while producing a paltry 13 homers over 102 games. Bryant’s strikeout rate grew and his hard contact rate declined, but at the end of the day he simply wasn’t healthy — he actually got off to a strong start before suffering the injury in mid-May. Bryant has pronounced himself fully healthy, and there are other good reasons for optimism as well. It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see him rocket back into the first round of fantasy drafts by this time next year.
Prime-Time Players: Anthony Rendon, Eugenio Suarez
Rendon and Suarez don’t have quite as much upside as the elite third basemen, but they were both top-30 hitters in 5×5 leagues last season and are both in the prime of their careers.
Rendon was the only third baseman to hit over .300 last season, and one of four third baseman to accomplish that feat in 2017. He’s as good a bet for batting average as it gets at the position, and he’s also fully capable of delivering 25 home runs with good run and RBI totals. His stolen base totals have evaporated over the last couple years, but that shouldn’t prevent him from again being a top-40 overall hitter in standard roto and categories leagues.
Suarez was among the league leaders in hard contact rate last season, and the result was a career-high .283 batting average, 34 home runs, and 104 RBIs. His BABIP and HR/FB rate were a little inflated, so some regression should be expected to his both average and power output. Look for him to hit closer to his .264 career mark while hitting around 30 homers and again driving in plenty of runs in an improved Reds lineup. That would still be plenty useful in 10- and 12-team leagues.
The Youngsters: Vladimir Guerrero, Rafael Devers, Miguel Andujar, Nick Senzel
While third base is already in good shape, it could be even stronger in the years ahead as these guys come into their own.
Guerrero, in particular, profiles as a future superstar at the position. He was unstoppable across four minor league levels last season, hitting .381 with 20 home runs in just 95 games. The projection systems universally expect him to rake from day one in the Major Leagues, envisioning that he is capable of hitting close to .300 with 20-25 home runs even while missing the first few weeks of the season due to service time considerations. He won’t be good for more than a handful of stolen bases, but that hardly matters for a player who could someday soon lead the league in both batting average and home runs.
Senzel is the other intriguing rookie at third base, although he may only qualify at 2B in some formats. It also remains an open question whether he will make the Opening Day roster, and if so where — the Reds are currently giving him a look in centerfield. While he isn’t in the same league as Guerrero, Senzel has shown the ability to hit over .300 at every minor league level while also providing a bit of power and speed. Once he’s able to earn regular playing time, it’s not hard to see Senzel producing 20-25 homers and 10-15 steals over a full season, along with a solid batting average. He could follow a similar career trajectory to Rendon.
While the rookies are likely to get most of the attention, we shouldn’t forget about a couple of other young third basemen who have already had their first taste of the Big Leagues. Devers was somewhat disappointing in his first full Major League season, hitting just .240 and missing some time with a hamstring strain. But the low batting average was largely due to an unusually low .281 BABIP — his batted ball profile was nearly identical to his promising 2017 debut. He also managed to produce 21 homers and five steals in just 121 games, not too shabby for a guy who was just 21-years old. The full breakout could be coming this year.
While Devers’ 2018 season was a bit rocky, Andujar’s went as well as even the most optimistic Yankees fan could have hoped. His .297/83/27/92/2 line was good enough to make him the seventh-most valuable third baseman in standard 5×5 leagues. The 27 home runs feels like a high water mark, at least for this stage of his career, and the batting average in particular is probably due for a bit of a correction, although he can still be above average there thanks to some pretty good contact skills. Basically, fantasy owners should expect last season’s production as a best case scenario for Andujar, and be satisfied if he approaches a .280 average and 25 HRs, as most of the projection systems expect.
The Oldies But Goodies: Justin Turner, Josh Donaldson, Matt Carpenter
This trio have each finished as a top-eight roto league third baseman at least once in the last three seasons, and each is capable of doing it again this year — even though they’ll all be at least 33 years old on Opening Day.
Turner has played more than 130 games just once in his eight-year career, but he’s been consistently excellent when he’s on the field. If you pro-rate his stats over a full season, you are typically looking at 25 home runs and 90 RBIs. Most importantly, with a batting average of at least .312 in three of the last five seasons, Turner is on the very short list of players who are capable of winning the batting title. His value gets a big boost in leagues with daily lineups and/or multiple DL spots — he is highly underrated in those formats.
Donaldson was one of the very best hitters in fantasy in 2015 and 2016. A calf injury cost him a big chunk of the 2017 season, but he still hit 33 home runs in 113 games. Then, in 2018, calf and shoulder injuries limited Donaldson to 52 games — and had a huge impact on his performance while on the field. It’s possible that Donaldson’s body is falling apart and he’ll never be the same, but it’s also possible that he has one or two more big years left in the tank. That makes Donaldson a boom-or-bust pick, but the potential reward far outweighs the risk at his current ADP of 98.7.
Carpenter is coming off the best season of this group, but he’s also the one I’m most lukewarm on. He blew away his previous career high by hitting 36 home runs in 2018, but that was fueled by a 19.1 percent HR/FB rate that was far higher than he’s ever had before. To be fair, he did have the highest hard contact rate in MLB, so it’s not like the home run spike was a total fluke, but fantasy owners should generally be cautious when a player has an outlier season this late in their career. The odds are against Carpenter hitting 35+ home runs again, and while he regularly produces an excellent OBP, he is a bit of a drag in batting average and has little speed to speak of. He’s a much better pick in points leagues and leagues that reward OBP than he is in traditional 5×5 roto/categories leagues.
The Unsexy Stat Fillers: Wil Myers, Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas, Max Muncy, Matt Chapman
You probably won’t draw any oohs and ahhs when you select these guys during your fantasy draft, but that doesn’t mean they can’t help you win your league.
Myers will play the outfield in San Diego this year, but will carry over third base eligibility from last season, making him one of the very few options for speed at 3B. He averaged 29 home runs and 24 stolen bases between 2016 and 2017, and was on pace to again go 20-20 last year if not for missing nearly half the season due to a host of different injuries. You can’t expect Myers to do much better than his .253 career batting average, but his combination of power and speed makes him a sneaky contender to finish as a top-12 third baseman in roto/categories leagues if he can stay healthy.
Shaw and Moustakas are similar players who will now share an infield in Milwaukee, with Moustakas currently penciled in at second base after Shaw moved over there from third last year. Regardless of where they line up defensively, Shaw and Moustakas are both lefty sluggers who are good bets to deliver 30+ home runs and 90+ RBIs in the Miller Park bandbox. Neither is likely to be of much help in batting average or stolen bases, but they are useful players to own, especially considering they will have multi-position eligibility.
Muncy was a late bloomer, bouncing around the Athletics’ and Dodgers’ farm systems for six years before breaking out in a big way at 27 years old. In his first extended opportunity in the Big Leagues, Muncy smacked 35 home runs in just 395 at-bats. That was due in part to a 29.4 percent HR/FB ratio that was one of the highest in baseball, but Muncy was also among the league leaders in hard contact rate. Even if his HR/FB rate drops off, he can make up for it with more games played, making him a decent bet to again top 30 home runs. He won’t be an asset in batting average or stolen bases, but he is another example of a big-time power source you can acquire relatively cheaply.
Chapman didn’t hit quite as many homers in 2018 as fantasy owners may have hoped, after displaying 30-HR power in the minors. But he made up for it with much lower strikeout rate than he had in the minors, riding that and a .338 BABIP to a .278 batting average and even 100 runs scored. The high BABIP all but ensures that Chapman’s batting average will fall in 2019, but if he’s able to keep the strikeouts in check he could be more of a .260 hitter than a .240 one. He also still has clear 30 HR potential if he can just elevate the ball more — his 40.3 percent ground ball rate last year was much higher than he ever had in the minors.
Other Names Of Note: Carlos Santana, Kyle Seager, Jake Lamb, Eduardo Escobar, Miguel Sano, Maikel Franco, Ian Happ, Yuli Gurriel, Jung-Ho Kang
As you can see, there is no shortage of interesting fliers available here. Some may gripe that Santana belongs is a higher tier, and that’s true enough for points leagues. But at this poin,t Santana is just a fringe option in roto/categories formats that do not reward OBP.
Seager was a solid starting 3B in 12-team roto leagues from 2013-2016, but his numbers have been declining across the board over the last two seasons. He’s now on the wrong side of 30 and stuck in a rebuilding Mariners’ lineup, so it is hard to expect him to return to mixed league relevance. Escobar’s .272 average and 23 home runs represented a mini-breakout at age 29, but that is likely his ceiling and was still only good enough to barely sneak him into the top-12 third baseman in roto leagues last year.
Lamb and Sano completely imploded in 2018 after strong showings in 2017, while Franco and Happ have yet to put it all together despite showing some potential at times. They’re all worthy of putting on your “watch list” or perhaps even stashing in leagues with deep benches. Gurriel is severely lacking in upside but he can contribute a decent batting average and some solid run production thanks to the rest of the Astros’ lineup. Kang has some deep sleeper appeal for those who recall the potential he showed before he ran into legal troubles and visa issues.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
