Finding the right baseball site to play on is kind of like dating. Hear me out a second. You go on test drives with a few different sites, and the more you explore, the more you figure out what you like and don’t like. And, if you’re chivalrous, you end up paying for the date, maybe a little too much. Kind of sounds like buy-ins for fantasy baseball. Funny how that works.
You gradually figure out the quirks on each site, such as that CBS’s standard league is two catchers, and that Fantrax has Shohei Ohtani as a combination pitcher/utility player. Most importantly, each website will have different ADPs as a result of the rankings featured by that website’s experts, and some of the things that websites do to try and “differentiate” themselves. The good news is that you can play this to your advantage, by checking out FantasyPros’s Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) and comparing those ranks and ADPs to your website’s ADPs. You can quickly identify which players you can wait for on a certain website, as well as who you need to snatch up early if you really like a particular player.
Today, we will be looking at the “overrated” players on CBS. These are the guys that are getting drafted much earlier in CBS leagues relative to the average ADP, as compiled by FantasyPros. There are two caveats, though — since I said that CBS typically has two-catcher leagues, all catchers will be drafted above the average ADP. We’ll ignore catchers for that reason. Caveat numero dos — dynasty/keeper drafts seem to have a significant place in the market, given that Danny Jansen, Garrett Hampson, and Casey Mize are all being drafted in the top 200. We will ignore these young players for redrafting purposes.
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Early Rounds
Jose Altuve (2B – HOU)
ECR: 14, Consensus ADP: 15, CBS ADP: 8.08
I have previously written a piece on why Altuve should be considered in the first round if he stays on track in getting back from his knee injury. I even throw a special mention to the guys over at CBS for their profound love of the diminutive second baseman. As a result, Altuve’s ADP on CBS is substantially higher than the average ADP. I’ll let you comb through the Altuve player profile as to why Altuve deserves a first-round pick if he shows signs of life in spring training.
Second base is, arguably, the weakest position outside of catcher. It makes sense to grab Altuve early if you are concerned about position scarcity. I expect the experts to catch up to the guys at CBS as the regular season grows closer.
Corey Seager (SS – LAD)
ECR: 55, Consensus ADP: 75, CBS ADP: 60.64
Corey Seager had a couple injuries in 2018 that derailed his season. Most people know about Seager’s Tommy John surgery, but he also had hip surgery in August. Safe to say 2018 was not a fun year for him. However, he was being drafted at the second/third round wheel in 2018. This was justified, given his four-category prowess. Seager is currently participating in minor leagues and should be ready on Opening Day.
The FantasyPros’ ECR (which does not include the experts from CBS) is right in line with the CBS ADP. When the ECR and CBS ADP match up, that typically means you are getting good value, even if the site’s ADP is higher than the consensus ADP. Not only is the consensus ADP low, but he is going 10 picks after Jean Segura and 20 picks after Gleybar Torres. If you miss out on one of the elite shortstops, picking up Seager at the end of the fifth or beginning of the sixth round looks like a solid draft strategy.
Middle Rounds
Dee Gordon (2B/OF – SEA)
ECR: 112, Consensus ADP: 103, CBS ADP: 74.79
This is like finding the weirdest person on a dating app and taking her to a Michelin restaurant. It just does not make sense. After a floundering season, it seems that drafters over at CBS think that Gordon can rebound. The experts do NOT agree. Gordon is slated to bat near the bottom of the lineup, is coming off an injury which directly affected his speed, and will not hit .300 again, as he did in 2017. Gordon is going before guys like Daniel Murphy, Travis Shaw, and Robinson Cano. Even guys like Yoan Moncada, Nick Senzel, and Jonathan Schoop provide more upside. Fade him like a Kobe jumper.
Eloy Jimenez (OF – CWS)
ECR: 116, Consensus ADP: 136, CBS ADP: 77.84
As bad as the CBS drafters are doing on Gordon, they are doing just the opposite on Jimenez. If Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was not in the picture, there is a good chance that Jimenez would be hyped up in a similar fashion as him. Simply put, Jimenez is not being treated as the shiny new toy…except in CBS leagues. He is slated to produce in four categories when he gets called up in mid-to-late April, and should hit in the heart of an (if you squint) adequate White Sox lineup. While I wouldn’t draft him before guys like Marcell Ozuna or Joey Gallo, Jimenez belongs in the top 100 and should be drafted before Mallex Smith and Victor Robles.
Justin Turner (3B – LAD)
ECR: 81, Consensus ADP: 107, CBS ADP: 86.56
Similarly to Seager, it seems that the CBS drafters are aligned with ECR. Turner is often injured, but he produces at a near-elite clip when healthy. Turner is best in points leagues (his walk rate is almost better than his K rate), but you can bank on 20+ homers, a near-.300 batting average, and at least 160 combined runs and RBIs. Being drafted at virtually the same time as Travis Shaw and Miguel Andujar, Turner provides Anthony Rendon-lite production at half the price.
A.J. Pollock (OF – LAD)
ECR: 79, Consensus ADP: 106, CBS ADP: 86.83
CBS loves the Dodgers, apparently. Turner and Pollock are essentially back-to-back in ECR, consensus ADP, and CBS ADP. Keeping with this dating theme — they are very compatible, if often heart-broken injured. Pollock has had one dominant season all the way back in 2015. Sure, everyone likes a near-20/40 season, but he hasn’t approached those homers or steals totals since. He will be hitting leadoff or near the top of the order in the potent Dodgers’s lineup, but it doesn’t seem that his injury risk is fully baked into his CBS ADP, which is what the consensus ADP is saying. If you think his injuries have been fluky, then by all means, scoop him up in the seventh round.
Post-100 Players
Rougned Odor (2B – TEX)
ECR: 102; Consensus ADP: 141; CBS ADP: 125.1
Odor’s projections are all over the place. Ironically, the experts are the highest on him, followed by the CBS drafters. While his batted ball profile did show signs of life, the odds of us seeing a repeat of his peak in 2016 is minimal.
Getting 20 homers and double-digit steals is nothing to sneeze at, but you can certainly find a similar player with a better batting average going much later — say, Tim Anderson…50 picks later. If his average comes back up to leave average, and he starts hitting 30 homers again, then he is worth the price of his ADP-mission. Given that his expected homers are all below his actuals, don’t bank on that happening.
Rafael Devers (3B – BOS)
ECR: 119, Consensus ADP: 142, CBS ADP: 125.38
There is no shortage of third baseman this year, so it’s shocking to see CBS drafters reach so high for Devers. Devers is reportedly slimmer and ready to fully break out in his age-23 season. Devers’s infield fly ball rate (15%), soft-contact rate (20%), and line driver rate (15%) leave a lot to be desired, but he can certainly turn those numbers upside-down in his youth. Again, the CBS drafters seem to be smarter than the rest of the field. Third base really falls off after Devers, so maybe this ADP is a reaction to that cliff.
Dart Throws
Jose Martinez (OF – STL)
ECR: 229, Consensus ADP: 332, CBS ADP: 180.38
It’s pretty inexcusable to draft Martinez in the top 200 given that he will not be playing every day. He signed a two-year contract extension with the Cardinals, and the DH isn’t coming to the National League for at least another year. Yes, the .300 average and double-digit homers are nice, but his other counting stats leave much to be desired. There’s no reason to not pluck him in the last couple rounds of drafts, but this is too early for a guy who won’t play every day.
Shin-Soo Choo (OF – TEX)
ECR: 188, Consensus ADP: 244, CBS ADP: 215.08
Choo is an incredible source of runs and homers at a bargain-bin price, and it seems that CBS drafters have realized that. He has been doing his thing for a long time now, and he possesses the batted ball profile necessary to sustain his numbers. His 22% line drive rate, minuscule 3% infield fly ball rate, and 42% hard-hit rate are helpful to keep his average at or above league average. He is also slated to hit in the two-hole in the best hitters’ ballpark in the majors. The lineup isn’t the best, but his counting totals won’t be severely impacted hitting near the top of the lineup. He makes for a great final outfielder or utility preference in standard leagues.
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Carmen Maiorano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Carmen, check out his archive and follow him @cmaiorano3.
