Is it better to get out on a player one year early or one year too late? Though you can’t disregard current production, I am a strong proponent of moving on too soon instead of too late.

Sometimes this thinking can come back to burn you, as anyone who traded away Larry Fitzgerald away after his age-31 2014 season did after he produced just 784 yards receiving yards. Several top-12 seasons later, Fitzgerald is still going, but he’s an outlier. Most players tend to see a regression in their skills and fantasy production as they age. Below, I’ll identify two such players at the running back position that you should be selling in dynasty fantasy football leagues.

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Devonta Freeman (RB – ATL)
Freeman has several factors working against him. First, he’s reaching the age cliff at his position. Excluding running backs who played less than 11 games in 2017, the average age of top-12 running backs was 24.4. The average age of the top-12 dropped to 23.4 years old in 2018. Just four (17%) of the top-12 running backs in 2017 and 2018 played in their age 27 or older season and Freeman just turned 27 on March 15 of this year.

Since finishing as the RB1 in 2015 with 21.1 fantasy points per game, his fantasy scoring has decreased every season since. His 17.8 points per game were sixth most in 2016, and in 2017 his scoring dropped to 14.3 points per game, 12th most for running backs who played at least 11 games. While an RB12 (or thereabouts) finish is still impressive, the decrease in fantasy scoring of almost seven points per game from 2015 to 2017 is alarming. Fantasy scoring isn’t the only area that Freeman has seen a steep decrease in either.

 
Freeman has seen a decrease in rushing attempts, receptions, targets, total touches, rushing attempts per game, targets per game, and touches per game every season since 2015. His rushing attempts have decreased by over 3.5 attempts per game since the 2015 season. Worse yet is how Freeman has gradually become a more marginalized part of the passing attack. As deftly pointed out by J.J. Zachariason a receiving target is more valuable than a rushing attempt in fantasy football. Any expectations for an increase in Freeman’s workload due to the departure of Tevin Coleman in free agency should be tempered with the knowledge that Ito Smith already understudied in the Tevin Coleman role and is ready to slide into that role again in 2019.

Lastly, Freeman was only able to suit up for two games in 2018, first due to a bone bruise to his foot and then hernia surgery. Just because Freeman hasn’t missed much time due to injury outside of last season, that doesn’t mean he is the picture of health. He’s dealt with a sprained PCL and MCL along with multiple concussions. His running style is not built on finesse, as he almost seems to invite contact and it’s hard to envision that changing now. As an aging running back who has seen a decrease in real-world and fantasy production, now may be your last opportunity to sell Freeman for a decent return. I suggest you do so before it’s too late.

Leonard Fournette (RB – JAC)
As someone who was expecting big things from Fournette when he entered the league, it pains me to realize I’ve done a total 180 on him. I’m probably not as pained as Jacksonville, who thought so little of him that they voided the guaranteed money in his final two seasons of his contract (pending appeal).

Admittedly, Fournette has been a success as far as fantasy when he gets on the field. Last season, his 15.1 points per game ranked 12th at the running back position. In 2017, his 17.7 points per game ranked seventh, so it’s hard to argue against his production. But his success is predicated on volume and volume alone.

The Jaguars configured their roster to ground and pound with an exceptional defense, allowing them to run a ball control, low volume-passing attack. Fournette’s 3.3 yards per attempt ranked 46th in 2018 for running backs with at least 100 carries, while his 133 (in only eight games) rushing attempts ranked 37th overall. That’s worse than Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Peyton Barber, and Alfred Blue among others. Frankly, that’s pitiful. His 3.9 yards per attempt in 2017 weren’t as bad, but certainly not elite and ranked 28th at the running back position.

What happens if the Jacksonville defense regresses and Fournette’s volume decreases based on the Jags needing to pass more? Jacksonville ranked fifth in yards per game allowed on defense last year with 311.4 per game, but that’s a relatively significant increase from 2017 when they ranked second overall, surrounding just 286.1 yards per game. They ranked second in the league allowing 16.8 points per game in 2017 while the 19.8 points per game allowed in 2018 ranked fourth in scoring defense. If the downward trend were to continue Jacksonville would slip to a middle of the pack defense as opposed to a shutdown defense.

After signing Nick Foles to what will be at least a guaranteed $50 million over the next three seasons, it’s reasonable to assume that the Jaguars will increase their passing volume that ranked 19th overall last season with 33.5 pass attempts per game. When your only saving grace is volume, it leaves a dangerously thin line from irrelevance. If Jacksonville ever decides to add a tight end or other large-bodied, goal-line receiving target, Fournette again would be adversely affected. Despite playing in only eight games last year, he still ranked 19th overall with 10 rushing attempts inside the five-yard line one season after ranking 10th in just 13 games played.

My final concern with Fournette is an extensive injury history going back to his days at LSU, where he missed five games in his final college season due to ankle injuries. These issues followed him to the NFL, and he missed three games his rookie season due to an ankle injury. Last season, he lost seven games due to hamstring issues and one game due to suspension.

His weight ballooned during his time away, which makes me question his commitment as well. Fournette is a volume dependent running back who can’t stay healthy that the Jaguars already regret investing in. The margins for his fantasy success are thinner than you think and I’m selling.

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Shane Manila is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Shane.