Pooling together rankings from dozens of experts helps fantasy gamers (and the participating analysts) optimize their order. Patterns will emerge. Overpays and bargains will materialize. Other times, however, the extra voices only lead to more strife.
At least the experts find common ground at the top. Everyone who has submitted rankings, as of March 3, has Mike Trout first, followed by Mookie Betts. That’s a good start, but chaos quickly follows. Then again, hearing different viewpoints is the benefit of collecting so many opinions.
Along with turning all of the rankings into a consensus (ECR), FantasyPros also provides a standard deviation for each player. For those who haven’t taken a statistics class in a while, a higher standard deviation indicates a wider range of value in the data set. Added health, performance, and category risks often create the most dissension among polarizing players.
Just about every catcher or closer also has a high standard deviation. Since those cases appear less about the individuals and more about diverging approaches to tackling the maddening positions, let’s look elsewhere to identify some of the most contentious rankings. In order to avoid end-of-draft dart throws, these lists are limited to players with a top-300 ECR.
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League-Winning Upside Hitters
Yasiel Puig (OF – CIN): 23.6
Adalberto Mondesi (2B/SS – KC): 24.2
David Dahl (OF – COL): 30.2
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B – TOR): 53.9
No shocking names here. I already discussed why I’m reticent to buy the inflated prices of Guerrero and Mondesi when identifying them as this year’s shiny new toys. Puig also fits that label, and the helium is expanding to gaudy heights as spring progresses. Four experts grabbed him inside the top 50 in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, so even his aggressive 67 ECR may prove too low to snag the Reds outfielder.
The experts cumulatively don’t like Dahl (94 ECR) nearly as much as his elevated 69 ADP in NFBC Draft Champions contests held this calendar year. While ECR participants are relatively split on him as a top-100 asset, he’s ranked as high as 57 and as low as 283. He has the skills to leverage Coors Field into 30 homers and 15 steals with a high batting average. Those stellar stats could also come with substantial counting numbers if batting in the heart of a Rockies lineup boasting Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy, and Nolan Arenado. Hold up before banking on that first-round upside. Injuries have limited him to 270 games (in the minors and majors) over the last three seasons, and a career .304 wOBA against southpaws makes him susceptible to a platoon. With a .305 wOBA on the road, investors might want to go a step further and swap him out of the lineup away from Coors. That’s a lot of attention to pay to such an expensive player.
Power/Speed Specialists
Whit Merrifield (1B/2B/OF – KC): 11.3
Matt Carpenter (1B/2B/3B – STL): 21.2
Joey Gallo (1B/OF – TEX): 26.5
Jose Peraza (SS – CIN): 28.6
Jonathan Villar (2B/SS – BAL): 29.6
Kyle Schwarber (OF – CHC): 38.3
Billy Hamilton (OF – KC) 43.5
Miguel Sano (1B/3B – MIN): 42.4
Jonathan Schoop (2B – MIN): 44.7
Burners and boppers are more divisive, and that even applies to elite speedsters who help across the board. Merrifield carries the highest standard deviation among the ECR’s top 45.
Although Merrifield went 15th overall in one TGFBI draft, his high rank (27) is 15 spots above his ECR. The Athletic’s Nando Da Fino has caused this wide discrepancy by placing last year’s stolen-base leader all the way down to 112. As he explained in a piece detailing his boldest rankings (subscription required), he believes the perceived lack of speed inflating Merrifield’s price is overblown. “It’s just that what he does – and what I think he’ll do this year – isn’t going to work on my fantasy team, because I can get what he does elsewhere cheaper.” Even so, few (if any) players deliver as high an average and speed floor as Merrifield, the only one of seven players with more than 30 steals (45) who also batted .300 ( .304).
The industry is also torn on some sluggers with contact woes. Drafters especially need to plan around taking Gallo, who’d need significant batted-ball luck just to hit .230. Those who have built a sturdy average foundation (or are punting the position altogether) can snag 40 dingers long after the other elite power bats get taken. Others who prefer a balanced approach will decide he isn’t worth the hassle.
Injuries
Josh Donaldson (3B – ATL): 20.6
Miguel Cabrera (1B – DET): 41.0
Shohei Ohtani (DH – LAA): 45.7
Gregory Polanco (OF – PIT): 46.5
Didi Gregorius (SS – NYY): 50.2
Yoenis Cespedes (OF – NYM): 64.8
Note that players with more recently developed injury concerns (Clayton Kershaw, Carlos Martinez, Mike Foltynewicz, Josh James) were excluded since the discrepancies still stem from rankings made before and after. The experts have had plenty of time to process these cases.
Cespedes believes he will return this season from his second surgery to remove a bone spur. Still, this is the Mets, and there’s no timetable. The best-case scenario is him returning around July or August and getting hot just in time for the fantasy playoffs. Most investors may give up and drop the outfielder by then anyway, so he’s not worth the hassle unless playing in a deep draft-and-hold or league with ample (or unlimited) IL slots.
Drafters can’t simply ignore Ohtani, who won’t be ready for Opening Day. The Angels won’t rush back the 23-year-old phenom from Tommy John surgery, and the two-way sensation is only available at the plate–with only utility eligibility–in 2019. Nevertheless, he showed immense five-category upside by batting .318 with 13 homers and eight steals from Aug. 1 onward. Just like last year, his stock could slide enough in March to turn the heavily hyped star into an intriguing mid-draft value.
Polarizing Pitchers
Jon Gray (SP – COL): 48.1
Jimmy Nelson (SP – MIL): 52.9
Tyler Skaggs (SP – LAA): 53.8
Alex Wood (SP – CIN): 54.6
Joe Musgrove (SP – PIT): 55.8
Dylan Bundy (SP – BAL): 57.6
Sonny Gray (SP – CIN): 62.2
Collin McHugh (RP – HOU): 67.9
Pitching’s volatility is evident among these borderline top-50 starters. Nobody is a sure thing, so this is the time of a draft to get your guy.
That guy is Skaggs for Pitcher List’s Nick Pollack, who ranks the Angels’ southpaw higher than any other participating expert at 151. In his SP rankings, Pollack noted Skaggs’ 2.62 ERA and 25.5% strikeout rate before an adductor strain sidelined him for the first of two times late last season. He also sees room for growth after the 27-year-old induced more whiffs (10.7%) on his four-seam fastball. Skaggs clearly has the Pitcher List stamp of approval, as Austin Bristow II is the second-highest at 162.
Pitchers don’t vary much more Freeland and Gray, but both Rockies teammates cause some consternation. While the former posted a 2.85 ERA in spite of a 4.35 SIERA, the latter’s 5.08 ERA ballooned well north of his 3.68 SIERA. Freeland navigated Coors Field masterfully (2,40 ERA), but Gray couldn’t prevent runs away from Colorado (5.34 ERA). Gray, however, still boasts a ceiling as high as his home park’s altitude because of his 24.6% strikeout rate. He’s a boom-or-bust gambit worth taking near his 197 ADP. Freeland has regression written all over him, but a 210 ECR driven by two ranks outside the 400 goes a bit overboard.
The secret is out on McHugh, who started the offseason buried down draft boards. Everyone has gradually realized that the 31-year-old will rejoin Houston’s rotation after a dominant season (1.99 ERA, 94 K in 72.1 IP) from the bullpen. He went much higher (212) than his ECR (254) in TGFBI drafts, so perhaps skeptical rankers owe the righty another look.
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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.
