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By The Numbers: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tommy Pham, Josh Bell

By The Numbers: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tommy Pham, Josh Bell

Hyun-Jin Ryu has posted a 1.99 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 22 starts dating back to last season.

This season, the southpaw has submitted a ridiculous 45 strikeouts to two walks in 44.1 frames. Not allowing a free pass in any of his last three outings is especially impressive given the length of each turn. He has respectively worked seven, eight, and nine frames, culminating in Tuesday’s complete-game shutout against the Braves.

That gives him 98 punchouts and seven walks in 97 innings since returning from a groin tear that sidelined him for over three months last year. And it’s not like Ryu is some nobody succeeding out of nowhere. Only 10 active starting pitchers have a lower ERA than his 3.13 mark since joining the Dodgers in 2013.

Looking at his dominance from this season and last, it’s not crazy to wonder if Ryu is becoming the defending NL champion’s new staff ace.

Player (2018-19) ERA WHIP K% BB% FIP SIERA
Hyun-Jin Ryu 1.99 0.94 27.5 3.5 3.00 3.09
Clayton Kershaw 2.83 1.03 24.0 4.0 3.29 3.46
Walker Buehler 2.87 0.96 27.0 6.6 3.07 3.45

Before shooing Ryu too high up the rankings, remember that he’s a 32-year-old pitcher who has thrown just 258 combined major league innings since the start of 2015. The Dodgers, whose currently healthy rotation has no room for Ross Stripling and Julio Urias, will carefully micromanage their starters to avoid overexertion. Even if the oft-injured lefty avoids another ailment, he could have some starts skipped with a phantom IL sabbatical or even a brief bullpen move. Stripling and Kenta Maeda were both cruising before getting moved to relief roles last summer.

On a start-by-start basis, however, Ryu is looking like a top-20 ace who isn’t far off from his star teammates.

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Tommy Pham: .322/.433/.547
That’s Pham’s slash line in 74 games since joining the Rays last season. He has also graced his new squad with 12 home runs, 11 steals (five and six, respectively, this season), and 50 runs scored. Such stellar production is right in line with a breakout 2017 in which he batted .306/.411/.520 with 23 homers and 25 steals for the Cardinals.

Since the start of 2017, Pham is one of six players to tally at least 45 long balls and steals apiece. The others? Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, Jose Altuve, and Christian Yelich.

Don’t get too nervous about Pham’s 56.9% ground-ball rate; putting the ball in play is still advantageous for a speedy player. Besides, the 31-year-old has also made many sweeping improvements at the plate. His contact rate has ascended 8.2 points above his career norm to 84.5, and only Trout and Logan Forsythe have chased fewer pitches off the plate. As a result, Pham has one more walk (26) than strikeouts (25).

In addition to making more contact, he’s also hitting the ball harder. Despite his basement-low launch angle, he leads the majors with 60 batted balls hit at least 95 mph.

Pham is a rare five-category star who needs to be treated accordingly. He jumped to 40th in my overall rest-of-season rankings, and he may climb even higher if he keeps stuffing stat sheets.

Josh Bell: 472 Feet
On Wednesday afternoon, Bell deposited a 472-foot blast into the Allegheny River. Feeling a twinge of deja vu? That’s because this wasn’t even his longest home run of the young season. The Pirates first baseman also crushed a 474-foot bomb on April 7 that remains 2019’s second-longest deep fly behind Nomar Mazara’s 482-foot dinger. Bell’s latest submission ties Anthony Rizzo for third.

This now gives Bell an average distance of 428 feet on his nine home runs. Among the 11 players ahead of him on the leaderboard, only Mazara and Ronald Acuna Jr. (six HRs apiece) have cleared the fences at least five times.

Oh, by the way, Bell had just 12 home runs in 583 plate appearances last year. We’re witnessing a completely transformed slugger so far this season. His average exit velocity climbed 4.1 mph before Wednesday’s 115-mph moonshot, and he’s now midway to matching last year’s 28 barrels. The overlying problem throughout his career, his ground-ball rate, has evaporated from 48.5 to 38.0%. Most of those leftover batted balls have gone in the air despite slashing last season’s 9.2% infield-fly rate to 2.6.

Two seasons ago, he offered 26 homers in spite of a .441 xSLG. This year, however, a .581 xSLG enthusiastically endorses his early power surge. An afterthought in many 2019 drafts, Bell is well on his way to rounding the bases 30 times with a relatively high floor in batting average.

Matt Barnes: 1.07 xFIP
Ryan Brasier leads the Red Sox with six saves, but Barnes is clearly their best relief pitcher. In fact, he’s one of the best bullpen options in all of baseball.

Along with placing a tick behind Josh Hader for MLB’s lowest xFIP, an ERA estimator that uses a league-average HR/FB rate, Barnes’ 46.7% strikeout rate also only trails Milwaukee’s star closer.

Brasier, meanwhile, brandishes a 3.45 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, and 23.4 K% after yielding two runs in two of his past three outings. While Barnes possesses a top-notch .235 xwOBA, Brasier’s .354 xwOBA — tying Homer Bailey — calls for further regression from his .317 wOBA.

Barnes is clearly better, but it still might not matter from a fantasy perspective. Red Sox manager Alex Cora may continue to deploy his superior option in high-leverage spots before the final frame. While that means everyone must hold onto Brasier, there could come a point where Cora no longer feels comfortable using him in the ninth … or eighth. Either way, his teammate is an elite talent who may still deliver more value in the light portion of a saves split. If Barnes get the closer’s job for himself, he’s an instant top-10 choice.

Justin Turner: .833 OPS
Turner had one home run all season before going deep three times Tuesday and once more Wednesday. His OPS instantly jumped 109 points in the process, the difference between an underwhelming start and perfectly proficient play.

It’s still early. Have some patience when it comes to established stars.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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