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Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 19

Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Week 19

Despite receiving little help from the trade deadline, closing situations are starting to see some clarity in early August.

Many of the maddening committees frequenting the bottom of Andrew Seifter’s rankings throughout the season now, at the very least, have a front-runner for saves. I’ve taken the liberty of declaring five new closers, but only one of them moved significantly up the hierarchy. The others aren’t completely set in stone just yet, so there’s still risk of losing the role in short order.

Now that deadline deals aren’t looming over the field, a clear and elusive top tier has settled. For what it’s worth, however, I initially inserted Will Smith as my No. 8 closer entering August. Upon further review, my fellow Andrew was right to eschew the name recognition and credit San Francisco’s star stopper for his stellar season. This eight-man group seemed poised to eventually add another member, but he instead heads to the injured list.

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Team (Closer) Current Rank
Previous Rank +/-
Padres (Kirby Yates) 1 1  –
Brewers (Josh Hader) 2 2   –
Indians (Brad Hand) 3 3   –
Pirates (Felipe Vazquez) 4 4  –
Giants (Will Smith) 5 5   –
Astros (Roberto Osuna) 6 6   –
Yankees (Aroldis Chapman) 7 7   –
Dodgers (Kenley Jansen) 8 8   –
Nationals (Sean Doolittle) 9 10  +1
Blue Jays (Ken Giles) 10 15   +5
Mets (Edwin Diaz) 11 11   –
A’s (Liam Hendriks) 12 13 +1
Braves (Shane Greene) 13 12  -1
Phillies (Hector Neris) 14 17  +3
White Sox (Alex Colome) 15 16  +1
Reds (Raisel Iglesias) 16 20  +4
Cardinals (Carlos Martinez) 17 18  +1
Angels (Hansel Robles) 18 14  -4
Royals (Ian Kennedy) 19 20  +1
Twins (Taylor Rogers) 20 22  +2
Red Sox (Brandon Workman) 21 23  +2
Rangers (Jose Leclerc) 22 21  -1
Rockies (Scott Oberg) 23 29  +6
Rays (Committee) 24 26  +2
Dbacks (Archie Bradley) 25 24  -1
Mariners (Anthony Bass) 26 25  -1
Cubs (Committee) 27 9  -18
Tigers (Committee) 28 28  –
Marlins (Committee) 29 27   -2
Orioles (Committee) 30 30   –

 
Big Movers

Chicago Cubs
Those who patiently waited for Craig Kimbrel’s arrival were betrayed by a 5.68 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 12.2 messy innings. Before he could settle down, the 31-year-old went on the injured list with knee inflammation. This doesn’t seem like a significant injury, so Kimbrel could return in short order. Managers should stash him on the IL, and maybe keep him there a few days after activation to let him work off the rust some more.

Joe Maddon indicated that he will use a committee during Kimbrel’s short absence, so it’s only worth speculating on someone in NL-only and truly deep mixed leagues. The most likely replacement, Steve Cishek, served up two home runs in his last appearance. As for Kimbrel, giving up a bunch of home runs (four) and walks (eight) is a recipe for disaster. He’ll need to earn his place among the top 10 upon returning.

Colorado Rockies
The Rockies finally reached their breaking point when Wade Davis blew July 31’s save in spectacular fashion, squandering a 1-0 edge over the Dodgers by allowing five runs. Colorado officially removed him from the final frame in favor of Scott Oberg, who has permitted five runs since May 6. If the Rockies were willing to stick with Davis until his ERA ascended to 6.61, Oberg should get a lengthy leash. Then again, they might want to give the position back to their highly compensated reliever after he regains his confidence in lower-leverage situations.

Based on a 1.53 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 54 strikeouts in 53 innings, Oberg should slot higher into these rankings. But, although he has had no trouble navigating Coors Field so far, the unforgiving park is bound to claim another victim eventually.

Toronto Blue Jays
This says more about the other relievers in the 10-15 grouping than Ken Giles, whose elbow issues are a legitimate concern. He’s not yet cleared to pitch on back-to-back days, which cost him a save opportunity Monday. Two days later, he narrowly preserved a two-run lead after giving back two scores. But how many guys after him have the numbers or job security to fully trust? When on the mound, Giles has posted a superb 1.95 ERA and MLB’s fifth-best K-BB rate (32.7%) behind the studs ranked No. 1-4. I certainly won’t blame Seifter for bumping him right back down the rankings, as I’m prepared to do the same if he continues to show some lingering effects of the sore elbow.

Los Angeles Angels
As a Mets fan, I’ve seen too much. Hansel Robles has fooled me too many times before, and I still occasionally have nightmares of him pointing at a supposed a pop-up that was actually a fence-clearing moonshot. His 43.9% fly-ball rate is right in line with his 43.6% career clip, but his HR/FB rate has fallen from 11.1 to 6.3. That’s despite allowing fewer legitimate infield flys (6.6%) than ever before. He has created plenty of separation from Ty Buttrey as the Angels’ closer, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he pitches closer to his 4.00 SIERA than 2.86 ERA (and 3.16 FIP) going forward.

Random Musings

Arizona Diamondbacks
It seemed like Arizona never wanted to handcuff Archie Bradley to a ninth-inning role. As a result, Yoan Lopez and  Yoshihisa Hirano looked like better bets for saves in place of Greg Holland. Bradley, however, has since picked up the club’s last two saves. He hasn’t relinquished a run since June 22 and has accrued 64 strikeouts in 50 innings this season.

Why not move him higher up the rankings? Despite a recent hot streak, his 1.57 WHIP caused by an 11.8% walk rate is a major liability in any fantasy format. A 10.2% swinging-strike rate also doesn’t support his sudden strikeout uptick. He’s not the stud who notched a 1.73 ERA in 2017, but Bradley could work his way to the mid-tier options by staying hot and building up some job security. He won’t have to worry about Holland, who got designated for assignment on Wednesday.

Boston Red Sox
Remember when Nathan Eovaldi was supposed to return as Boston’s closer? He has surrendered seven runs in 7.2 innings since coming off the IL. His saves tally, for the season and his career, remains at zero. Brandon Workman only has seven in 2019, but the Red Sox have only manufactured five save opportunities in the second half.

Manager Alex Cora said he’s “comfortable” using Workman as the closer, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne. He boasts a 1.92 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 51.2 innings, so why not? Well, the 15.8% walk rate is alarming, and it means he’ll need to maintain a .116 opposing batting average and .188 BABIP to remain elite. The unenthusiastic ranking, however, has more to do with Boston showing no urgency to stick with one closer. Workman has already tied Ryan Brasier for the team lead in saves.

Minnesota Twins
Sam Dyson looked set to join a righty-lefty closing tandem with Taylor Rogers, but he surrendered three runs in each of his two outings with the Twins before going on the IL due to a shoulder injury. Another mid-season acquisition simply might take the role instead; Sergio Romo recorded a four-out save last Friday. Rogers, however, had pitched the previous two days.

Although I was reticent to name Rogers the full-time closer, he still has more saves than Giles or Robles. If this is a committee, it’s not the feared one of Minnesota solely playing the handedness splits. On the contrary, Rogers should get the bulk of the opportunities for a playoff contender. Committee or not, Rogers deserves the spotlight as a top-20 fantasy reliever. If ever given the official title, he could jump as high as No. 10.

New York Mets
The past two times I’ve filled in for Mr. Seifter, I moved Edwin Diaz up the board. This time, he should consider himself lucky to stand pat. Diaz continued an infuriating 2019 by allowing at least one run in four straight appearances. Even his so-called bounce-back outing consisted of a walk and hit batter. Yes, the 36.2% K rate remains superb. The 5.32 ERA and 1.45 WHIP? Not so much.

In typical Mets fashion, manager Mickey Callaway said Diaz is not guaranteed to remain the closer, only to backtrack on those comments the next day. It’s reasonable to wonder if one more home run — which would set a new career-high at 11 for Diaz — would cause Callaway to flip-flop again. After all, Seth Lugo hasn’t allowed a baserunner in 12.2 perfect innings since the All-Star break. He closed the door for a two-inning save in the second game of Monday’s doubleheader to improve his ERA to 2.59. Lugo is worth adding in all leagues just in case he usurps Diaz.

Seattle Mariners
Anthony Bass picked up Seattle’s first save since moving Hunter Strickland and Roenis Elias to Washington at the deadline. The 31-year-old righty now carries a 3.26 ERA in 30.1 innings while working eight consecutive frames without ceding a walk or run. That makes him worth a pick-up in most leagues, but just beware the 4.17 FIP and career 16.2% strikeout rate. He’s likely a serviceable reliever benefitting from a .225 BABIP more than a legitimate breakout option, so Bass is merely someone to chase for a few cheap saves.

Texas Rangers
Even after Shawn Kelley returned from a biceps injury, the Rangers are planning to keep Jose Leclerc as their closer. “The goal was to get Jose back to that role anyway,” manager Chris Woodward told The Athletic’s Levi Weaver (subscription required) Tuesday. “So I don’t think I’d pull the plug on it just because Kelley’s coming back.”

That makes Leclerc a must-own option in all mixed leagues. The upside is off the charts, as he concluded 2018 by compiling 29 strikeouts over 18 scoreless innings from August 1 onward. Just don’t assume you’re getting that version of the highly erratic hurler. While he has continued to pile up the punchouts, his 73 Ks come with a 4.44 ERA and 27 walks in 50.2 frames. He has looked lost on the mound far too often this season, so the 25-year-old still must reclaim the trust of Woodward and fantasy investors. There’s a strong chance he shoots up these rankings. He could also easily pitch himself out of the job once again.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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