Week 13 Running Back Snap Count Analysis (2019 Fantasy Football)

This week’s analysis of snap counts in various NFL backfields has a wet-blanket feel. Most of the situations analyzed this week create a high degree of uncertainty of what to expect during the most crucial weeks of the fantasy football season, the fantasy playoffs. Having said that, one situation was reconfirmed following the bye of the team in question.

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49ers last week at Ravens, this week at Saints

 
Matt Breida was inactive last week, so, no problem for Coleman, right? Not exactly. He was ineffective rushing for only six yards on five carries and securing his lone target for a nine-yard reception. Instead, Mostert steamrolled the Ravens. He rushed for 146 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries while hauling in both of his targets for eight receiving yards.

Mostert has some tantalizing measurables, as you can see on his PlayerProfiler page. The 27-year-old back has excelled whenever given an opportunity, averaging an eye-popping 6.3 yards per carry on 133 rushes in his career. On 92 rushes this year, he’s averaged 5.9 yards per carry.

After last week’s effort, Mostert’s a more desirable fantasy option than Coleman, but what about Breida? Breida could return this week, and he’s no slouch, either. Breida’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry on 109 rushes this year, and he’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry on 367 rushes in his career. Furthermore, Breida’s measurables are even tastier than Mostert’s. The only knock on Breida is his inability to stay healthy.

San Francisco’s embarrassment of riches in the backfield should award head coach Kyle Shanahan the opportunity to mix and match his backs, playing whoever is hot and shielding all of his backs from the punishment of carrying the load all by themselves. That’s great for the 49ers, but it’s a nightmare for fantasy gamers hoping to trust one of San Francisco’s backs. The efficiency exhibited by Breida and Mostert means they don’t necessarily need a lot of volume to contribute to fantasy squads, but their ceilings are reduced, and they’re both risky. Coleman can’t be trusted at this point.

Buccaneers last week at Jaguars, this week vs. Colts

 
What’s worse than a running-back-by-committee situation with a handful of supremely talented and efficient backs? One featuring less talented backs who are completely volume-dependent for value. Jones has flashed talent this year, but he found himself in the doghouse last week.

Yuck. Maybe Jones gets himself out of the doghouse, but head coach Bruce Arians’ quick trigger makes Jones a non-option for gamers.

Barber rushed 17 times for 44 rushing yards, two touchdowns, and he scored a two-point conversion. The fact he mustered just 2.59 yards per carry against a Jaguars defense that Football Outsiders (FO) ranked dead last in run defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) entering Week 13 was just further proof of Barber’s inefficiency as a runner. He’s averaged 3.7 yards per carry on 519 rushes in his career, and he’s averaging 3.2 yards per carry this year. He’s a dud in the passing attack, so his ability to contribute to fantasy squads is entirely reliant on falling into the end zone. No thanks. I’ll pass. Avoid this situation like the plague.

Colts last week vs. Titans, this week at Buccaneers

 
So much for Williams looking like the guy to use in fantasy while Marlon Mack is out. He rushed for just 14 yards on eight carries in the first half last week, and he didn’t carry the ball in the second half. Wilkins led the team with 47 rushing yards on 11 carries. Williams caught his only target for 11 yards, and Wilkins caught two of three targets for nine yards. Hines was a change-of-pace option who rushed four times for 22 yards and a touchdown, and he caught both of his targets for 18 yards.

This is a fluid situation as long as Mack is out, and Williams’ lack of involvement in the second half was a matter of head coach Frank Reich turning to the hotter hands of Wilkins and Hines. As if this wasn’t an undesirable enough fantasy situation, the Colts face a Buccaneers defense this week that ranks first in rush defense DVOA. None of the trio are even worth flex consideration this week in most leagues, but Wilkins is the best of a bad lot for desperate gamers in larger leagues.

Redskins last week at Panthers, this week vs. Packers

 
Washington ran the ball down Carolina’s throat in Week 13. Guice rumbled for 129 rushing yards and a pair of scores on 10 carries, and he hauled in two of three targets for eight yards. As impressive as his 12.9 yards per carry are, it was actually held back by both of his touchdown carries coming from just one yard away. He made the most of a cushy matchup against a run defense that FO ranked as the second-worst entering last week. The good news is that he faces another soft run defense this week, as FO ranks the Packers as the fifth-worst run defense.

There is bad news for gamers turning to — or potentially turning to — Guice, though. Peterson was also extremely effective last week, rushing for 99 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. Thompson is healthy now, too, and he’ll presumably handle most of the passing-down work as a top-notch pass-catching back. The BettingPros consensus line for this week is the Packers laying 13.5 points to the visiting Redskins. Maybe Washington can keep things close like they did in their upset win over the heavily favored Panthers last week, but if they fall behind multiple scores quickly, Guice is in danger of ceding much of the backfield work to Thompson.

Washington’s going nowhere, so they should get Guice valuable reps to see exactly what they have. As veteran gamers and long-time NFL fans know, however, what should happen and what does happen don’t always line up. Guice is a low-end RB2 or flex option, but his floor is low.

Cardinals last week vs. Rams, this week vs. Steelers

 
Coming out of the bye, the listless Cardinals were crushed by the Rams. Even after accounting for the fact this game was a rout out of the gates, Drake still commanded the lion’s share of the backfield snaps and touches. Drake rushed 13 times for 31 yards and caught two of five targets for 20 yards. Johnson, comparatively, rushed four times for 14 yards and caught both of his targets for nine yards. Edmonds returned, but his only playing time came on special teams. Drake’s firmly in the RB2 mix, and gamers (such as myself) holding out hope Johnson could carve out a semi-useful role out of the bye can cut bait. Edmonds can also be cut.

Seahawks last week vs. Vikings, this week at Rams

 
The Seahawks played in an entertaining back-and-forth affair on Monday night, ultimately securing a 37-30 victory. Gamers who’ve been relying on Carson all year should have mixed feelings about what took place in Week 13. On the plus side, Carson bounced back from a dreadful Week 12 effort. He toted the rock 23 times for 102 rushing yards and a touchdown while adding one reception on two targets for seven yards. Amassing 20-plus carries and more than 100 rushing yards is obviously fantastic, but he played under 55% of Seattle’s offensive snaps for the second week in a row after failing to exceed that mark just two times in his first 10 games (both times coming in the first three games of the year).

Penny thoroughly outplayed Carson in Week 12, and it appears to have earned him a nearly equal role in the offense. He was sharp again last week, too. Penny rushed 15 times for 74 yards and a touchdown, and he also reeled in four of five targets for 33 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Seattle’s run-heavy offense puts both Carson and Penny in the RB2 mix, but Carson’s stock has slipped of late while Penny’s is headed in the opposite direction. The BettingPros consensus line has the Seahawks favored by one point over the host Rams this week. If things play out as a close game like the line suggests, both Carson and Penny should have a crack at reaching the teens in carries. FO ranks the Rams as the third-best run defense, so the matchup is tough, but touch totals in the teens would keep Carson and Penny in RB2 territory even in a tough matchup.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.