ThriveFantasy NBA Best Bets for February 12th, 2020
ThriveFantasy is one of the most intriguing and exciting names in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based offerings, ThriveFantasy offers a variety of attractive prop based contests. They have two exciting DFS contest types to choose from, the Contest Lobby and the Props Lobby.
Their Props Lobby allows DFS players to make an over/under prediction on two to four props to win cash. Two correct selections pay a 3.6x time multiplier, three correct predictions pay a 6.2x multiplier, and four correct picks pay an 11 times multiplier. In these contests, you are competing against yourself, and if all of your predictions hit, you win the corresponding amount.
The Contest Lobby is where things really get intriguing. The Contest Lobby’s prop contests for the NBA involve making predictions on 10 out of the 20 listed props. You will be required to make two additional picks to ensure fairness just in case one of your players fails to play. These backup picks are called ice picks.
Fantasy sports players, especially DFS players, have an edge when it comes to player prop betting. DFS players set lineups taking into account potential production when weighing competing options against each other. This is most pronounced with the NBA and the NFL DFS players. As such, diving into prop based DFS contests is a smart way to further monetize your knowledge. While the Contest Lobby requires you to select 10 different props, you can still make a return even if you do not get every over/under prediction right.
To identify whether to select the over or the under we will take a look at some recent trends and key stats. We will also take any injuries, and narratives into account. Finally, we will use lines at sportsbooks to identify whether the lines hold any immediate value. Let’s dig in.
Andrew Wiggins 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (o 90/u 110)
- Averaging 22.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game on the season (31.2 total)
- Averaging 21 points, two rebounds, and 3.5 assists as a Warrior (26.5 total)
- Averaging 21 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on the road (29.6 total)
- Averaging 22 points, four rebounds, and 3.5 assists in two contests vs. Suns (29.5 total)
- Over in one of two games with the Warriors
- Over in one of two contests versus Suns
- Over in two of last three
- Over in five of last nine contests
Andrew Wiggins landed in a great spot for his fantasy value as far as 2020 is concerned. Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry remain sidelined, which makes Wiggins the de facto number one for the Warriors. Wiggins has cleared the posted total in two of his last three contests and looks like a good bet to do so once again against a Suns team allowing opponents to shoot .500 from the field. The Suns give up 113.8 points per game (11th worst in NBA) and have had their struggles containing Wiggins this season, as he posted 23 points, four rebounds, and four assists (31 combined), and 21 points, four rebounds, and three assists (28 combined) in his two games against them this season. Most of his key averages and trends suggest an over play, and the points or juice is also on the over. Sportsbooks are more bullish on Wiggins’ potential output for this contest and have listed this prop at 30.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists. This suggests that there is value on the over, even if the juice is on the under 30.5 at the books. Opponent here is key, as the Suns allow opponents to shoot a high enough percentage, and have allowed Wiggins to clear this total once already this season while falling under by .5 in the other contest. Those games came when he was the second option for the Timberwolves. Punch Wiggins in for the over.
Pick: Andrew Wiggins 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (90 points)
Devin Booker 27.5 points (o 100/u 100)
- Averaging 32.5 points per game against Golden State this season
- Averaging 26.4 points per game on the season
- Averaging 24.9 points per game at home this season
- Averaged 31.3 points per game in January
- Shooting .407 in five February contests
- Over in both contests against Golden State this season
- Under in four of last five contests
- Over in 10 of last 15 contests
Devin Booker is in the midst of a career season and is averaging a superstar level 26.4 points per game. The line for this contest has been set at 27.5 due to tonight’s opponent being the Golden State Warriors. This line sits at 28.5 at sportsbooks, suggesting that there could be immediate value in this line. With that said, the juice is on the under at the books, so we need to dig a little deeper. A reason the under may be the popular play is the fact that Booker averages just 24.9 points per game at home compared to 28 ppg on the road. However, Booker has faced the Warriors twice already this season and has scored 32.5 points per game in those contests. He scored 31 points and 34 points against the Warriors in those two contests. Adding ammo to the over play is the fact that the Golden State Warriors boast the seventh-worst scoring defense in the league with 114.6 points allowed per game (on .497 shooting). Booker has cleared the total in 10 of his last 15 contests but has fallen under in four of his last five. With that being said, as DFS players we often target specific opponents, and the Warriors are one of them. Booker’s success against them this season is just icing on the cake. Booker over is the play.
Pick: Devin Booker over 27.5 points (100 points)
D’Angelo Russell 22.5 points (o 105/u 95)
- Averaging 23.6 points per game on the season
- Averaged 25.8 in January
- Scored 18 points against Charlotte
- Scored 22 points in Timberwolves debut
- Under in four straight contests
- Over in five of last nine
D’Angelo Russell should be in for a big game in his second game with the Timberwolves. The total for this prop was set at 22.5 points. This should be an easy clear. Russell scored 22 points versus the number two percentage-based defense, and the number five scoring defense in the Toronto Raptors. The Charlotte Hornets, on the other hand, allow their opponents to shoot .500 from the field. Russell managed just 18 points against the Hornets earlier this year, but he played just 24 minutes in that contest. Barring foul trouble, Russell is going to see at least 32 minutes against Charlotte tonight. D’Angelo has actually gone under 23 points in each of his last four games but cleared the posted total in five straight contests prior to that. The juice is currently on the under at sportsbooks as recent trends suggest the under is the smarter play. Russell has averaged 23.6 points per game on the season, but prop bettors may believe that as the 1b option at best that D’Angelo may not see as many scoring opportunities. That may be true from a more macro point of view, but against the Hornets, the over is still the easy play. Anyone who can score 22 on the Raptors is fully capable of scoring 25 on the Hornets. Take the plus points and the over.
Pick: D’Angelo Russell over 22.5 points (105 points)