Sleepers for RBIs (2020 Fantasy Baseball)

By now, most informed baseball enthusiasts know there’s more to a hitter’s worth than a lofty RBI tally. Largely dependent on his teammates and spot in the order, the imperfect stat is thankfully no longer the driving force in evaluating a batter.

And yet, in the standard fantasy league, it’s still one of five offensive categories that count.

An analytical whiz with an extensive spreadsheet worth of data still can’t ignore one of the game’s oldest barometers. While there’s no foolproof method to projecting RBIs, finding hitters batting third, fourth, or fifth in the lineup is a good start.

Some of my previously highlighted sleepers for home runs could qualify here as well. Ultimately, however, finding late value for such a volume-driven stat means projectable playing time beats out raw talent and upside. As a result, these “sleepers” are merely discounted veterans placed in the right environment to record 80-90 RBIs in 2020. All of them have a consensus ADP below 250, as of March 9.

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Starlin Castro (2B – WAS)
Why not start with a guy who just registered 86 RBIs last season?

Granted, Castro won’t play 162 games again. In fact, one of his competitors for playing time in Washington’s infield, Asdrubal Cabrera, bested him with 91 RBIs in 2019. The latter is going way cheaper (266 ADP) than the former (244 ADP).

Cabrera, however, is more likely to be relegated to a utility role than Castro, who exited 2019 with plenty of positives despite posting his worst wRC+ (91) since 2015. On a brighter note, he also improved his contact, strikeout, and swinging-strike rates to their best marks since 2015.

Castro turned on the jets after the All-Star break, batting .302/.334/.558 with 16 homers in 74 games. While splits can often be attributed to random streakiness, the middle infielder reconfigured his batted-ball profile by hitting fewer grounders.

 
Burying the lede (for this article’s purposes at least), Washington has a gaping void in the middle of its lineup. With Anthony Rendon out of D.C., Castro is vying for cleanup responsibilities against the likes of Cabrera, Eric Thames (versus righties), and Howie Kendrick (versus lefties). Even if Washington moves Trea Turner to third and has Victor Robles lead off, the fifth slot would remain open behind Juan Soto.

Castro could get first dibs at a major run-producing role if he carries over any of last summer’s power surge into 2020. That would sure make the career .280 hitter a late-round bargain.

Corey Dickerson (OF – MIA)
A vile Marlins lineup didn’t deter Castro from padding his numbers. Although not a direct replacement on the diamond, Dickerson will provide a steady veteran presence from the outfield. If spring training is any indication, he’s poised to open in the third slot.

Having only topped 550 plate appearances once, the 30-year-old doesn’t boast ideal durability for a wishful compiler. As a result, he’s never topped 70 RBIs in a single season. Dickerson, however, is also overlooked on a per-game basis.

The owner of a career 117 wRC+ has batted .293/.330/.499 over the last three years. He spent most of 2019 platooning for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, but the Marlins don’t quite possess the lineup depth to bench him against southpaws. Nor do they need to; last year’s 96 wRC+ was his worst against them since 2016.

Drafting Dickerson isn’t exciting. That’s especially true with Marlins Park capping his power capability. But how often can you get a No. 3 hitter who has hit .300 or better in back-to-back years around the pick-300 range?

Nick Markakis (OF – ATL)
Markakis tallied 258 RBIs from 2016 to 2018. He spent most of 2019 perched in the fifth slot before fracturing his wrist in late July. Before getting hit on the hand, the outfielder had missed 21 games in the past six seasons combined.

The case here is that the 26-year-old is healthy and tossed right back into the fifth slot. It’s reasonable, so long as he earns a starting role over Ender Inciarte. While the center fielder makes a strong case with his glove, he’s yet to offer league-average offense — defined by a 100 wRC+ — since joining the Braves in 2015. Markakis, meanwhile, enjoyed a late-career renaissance (116 wRC+) in 2018.

If everything goes according to plan, you’re still not looking at a viable piece in shallow leagues. After all, Markakis only offers gap power with next to no steals. Yet if deeper contests and points leagues, if already establishing a power foundation, take a cheap chance on a professional capable of batting in the .280s with a double-digit walk rate and 80-90 RBIs. He falls just outside the top-100 outfielders and top-400 overall in the consensus ADP.

Robinson Cano (2B – NYM)
As a Mets fan, I’m not sure I want this pick to pan out. The Mets would present a far more acceptable defensive alignment if they played Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis at second base and third base, respectively. Instead, they’re both likely to play out of position — and that’s hoping Davis gets a starting job in left field — to make room for the declining Cano.

Like it or not, Cano is going to play if healthy. The 37-year-old is set to pocket $24 million in each of the next four seasons, so the Mets aren’t going to sit the sunk cost while Jarred Kelenic blossoms into an A-list prospect for the Mariners.

It’s also unlikely they bury the eight-time All-Star down the lineup card. Last year, all but 12 of Cano’s 423 plate appearances came outside a No. 3-5 spot in the batting order. That could change after watching him sputter to a middling .256/.307/.428 slash line, but the more likely outcome is New York giving him every opportunity to rebound from a prominent position.

Cano delaying his downfall is far from an outlandish thought. A beacon of consistency before finally catching the injury bug in 2019, his wRC+ never veered below 112 for a decade prior to last year’s 93. Even in a down year, the expected Statcast metrics leave the door open for some reasonable optimism.

 
Unfortunately for the Mets, Michael Conforto went back to New York for further evaluation after tweaking his side. If this takes him out of commission on Opening Day, Cano suddenly has the inside track on a cleanup gig. That’s not particularly comforting for the Amazins, but it could lead to a hearty RBI output from the veteran second baseman. It would mark a return to the status quo for Cano, who totaled 200 RBIs in 2016 and 2017 and 50 in 80 games the following year. At a 332.4 ADP, right around the same range as Niko Goodrum, there’s no tariff based on name recognition.

Sleepers for Runs
Sleepers for Home Runs

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