DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy: Sunday (7/26)
This is my first MLB article of the season for FantasyPros and I can’t tell you how excited I am to get back to work. This is going to be the craziest season ever for DFS purposes and it’s a wonder how these teams are going to look in a 60-game sprint. There’s a lot to discuss with this Sunday slate, so, let’s get into it!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel
|Zack Greinke (HOU)||vs. SEA||$10,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Carlos Carrasco (CLE)||vs. KC||$8,600||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Vince Velasquez (PHI)||@ MIA||$6,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
Greinke is easily the best cash game play on the board. That’s clear when you see that he enters this matchup as a -305 favorite, facing a Seattle team who finished 20th in runs scored and 28th in K rate last season. He also threw 80 pitches in a sim game earlier in the week, indicating that he’s ready for a full workload.
Carrasco is very risky coming off of his leukemia but this is a dude who’s absurd when he’s right. We’re talking about a guy with a 3.21 xFIP and 25.3 percent K rate for his career. That’s scary for a Royals offense who has just three runs, nine hits and 25 strikeouts across their first two games of the season.
Velasquez allowed just one run and struck out six Yankees in his final Spring Training start, opening my eyes with his nasty stuff. If he can duplicate that form here, he should cruise against a Marlins team who ranked 29th or 30th in OBP, runs scored and OPS last season.
|Mitch Garver (MIN)||vs. CWS||$4,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Christian Vasquez (BOS)||vs. BAL||$4,300||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Mike Zunino (TB)||vs. TOR||$3,100||⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
Garver is easily the best option at catcher, facing a pitcher who regularly gets blown up. The Red Sox are one of the best stacks on the board, making Vasquez intriguing with the platoon advantage in his favor. Zunino is certainly risky but he has one of the best HR/rates of any catcher out there and gets to face a pitcher who hasn’t pitched above Double-A.
|Paul Goldschmidt (STL)||vs. PIT||$4,200||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Joey Votto (CIN)||vs. DET||$3,800||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Colin Moran (PIT)||@ STL||$2,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
I like these crafty veterans, with Goldy facing a pitcher who posted an ERA above 7.00 last year and Votto homering in each of his first two games. Moran is risky but paying $2,900 with the platoon advantage in his favor is worth the risk.
|Jose Altuve (HOU)||vs. SEA||$5,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Kolten Wong (STL)||vs. PIT||$3,700||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Michael Chavis (BOS)||vs. BAL||$2,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
Altuve had an OPS above 1.000 against lefties last season and is a key piece to our Houston stack. Wong has been hitting leadoff and gets to face a weak Mitch Keller while Chavis gets the platoon advantage for a lineup who’s projected for six runs against a terrible Wade LeBlanc.
|Alex Bregman (HOU)||vs. SEA||$5,100||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Mike Moustakas (CIN)||vs. DET||$4,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Todd Frazier (TEX)||vs. COL||$3,200||⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
Bregman is one of the best plays on the board, with his .742 SLG and 1.182 OPS against southpaws last season. Moose and Frazier are both good picks with the platoon advantage as well, facing weak pitchers like Spencer Turnbull and Kyle Freeland.
|Carlos Correa (HOU)||vs. SEA||$4,400||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Francisco Lindor (CLE)||vs. KC||$4,500||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Jonathan Villar (MIA)||vs. PHI||$3,900||⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
Let’s keep the righty Astros rolling against Kikuchi. Lindor is also a nice pick against Mike Montgomery and Villar could have success atop the Marlins lineup if Velasquez is having one of his bad days.
|George Springer (HOU)||vs. SEA||$5,300||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|J.D. Martinez (BOS)||vs. BAL||$5,000||⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
|Franmil Reyes (CLE)||vs. KC||$4,100||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Medium|
|Jordan Luplow (CLE)||vs. KC||$3,900||⭐⭐⭐⭐||High|
|Michael Brantley (HOU)||vs. SEA||$3,300||⭐⭐⭐⭐||Low|
Martinez and Springer can be seen below. Reyes and Luplow traditionally destroy lefties and are both nice values around $4,000. Brantley is left on left but it’s crazy that he’s just $3,300 in the heart of the best lineup on this slate.
5 Studs Worth Their Salary
- J.D. Martinez, BOS ($5,000): J.D. is probably the best play on the board of all the position players, posting an OPS north of 1.300 against lefties last season. LeBlanc won’t be able to slow him down.
- George Springer, HOU ($5,300): Springer has six hits in nine at-bats against Kikuchi and gets to hit atop one of the best lineups in baseball.
- Alex Bregman, HOU ($5,100): Bregman raked against lefties last year and should do damage in our Houston stack.
- Josh Bell, PIT ($4,900): Bell gets the platoon advantage against a weak Dakota Hudson.
- Zack Greinke, HOU ($10,900): Greinke is the highest-priced pitcher on the board and should roll as a -305 favorite.
5 Notable Players to Fade
- Jorge Soler, KC ($4,300): This has K’s written all over it against a guy like Carrasco.
- Shin-Soo Choo, TEX ($4,100): Choo never does well against lefties and may miss the lineup altogether.
- Nolan Arenado, COL ($4,900): Arenado is traditionally much worse on the road and could struggle against a righty like Corey Kluber.
- Miguel Sano, MIN ($4,800): Batting eighth worries me at such a high price.
- Ryan Braun, MIL ($4,700): Why is this guy $4,700? That’s crazy