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DraftKings DFS MLB Strategy: Sunday (7/26)

Jul 26, 2020
Carlos Carrasco

This is my first MLB article of the season for FantasyPros and I can’t tell you how excited I am to get back to work. This is going to be the craziest season ever for DFS purposes and it’s a wonder how these teams are going to look in a 60-game sprint. There’s a lot to discuss with this Sunday slate, so, let’s get into it!

If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel

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Value Plays

Pitcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Zack Greinke (HOU) vs. SEA $10,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) vs. KC $8,600 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
 Vince Velasquez (PHI) @ MIA $6,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 
Greinke is easily the best cash game play on the board. That’s clear when you see that he enters this matchup as a -305 favorite, facing a Seattle team who finished 20th in runs scored and 28th in K rate last season. He also threw 80 pitches in a sim game earlier in the week, indicating that he’s ready for a full workload.

Carrasco is very risky coming off of his leukemia but this is a dude who’s absurd when he’s right. We’re talking about a guy with a 3.21 xFIP and 25.3 percent K rate for his career. That’s scary for a Royals offense who has just three runs, nine hits and 25 strikeouts across their first two games of the season.

Velasquez allowed just one run and struck out six Yankees in his final Spring Training start, opening my eyes with his nasty stuff. If he can duplicate that form here, he should cruise against a Marlins team who ranked 29th or 30th in OBP, runs scored and OPS last season.

Catcher

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Mitch Garver (MIN) vs. CWS $4,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Christian Vasquez (BOS) vs. BAL $4,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Mike Zunino (TB) vs. TOR $3,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 
Garver is easily the best option at catcher, facing a pitcher who regularly gets blown up. The Red Sox are one of the best stacks on the board, making Vasquez intriguing with the platoon advantage in his favor. Zunino is certainly risky but he has one of the best HR/rates of any catcher out there and gets to face a pitcher who hasn’t pitched above Double-A.

First Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Paul Goldschmidt (STL) vs. PIT $4,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Joey Votto (CIN) vs. DET $3,800 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Colin Moran (PIT) @ STL $2,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 
I like these crafty veterans, with Goldy facing a pitcher who posted an ERA above 7.00 last year and Votto homering in each of his first two games. Moran is risky but paying $2,900 with the platoon advantage in his favor is worth the risk.

Second Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Jose Altuve (HOU) vs. SEA $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Kolten Wong (STL) vs. PIT $3,700 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Michael Chavis (BOS) vs. BAL $2,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 
Altuve had an OPS above 1.000 against lefties last season and is a key piece to our Houston stack. Wong has been hitting leadoff and gets to face a weak Mitch Keller while Chavis gets the platoon advantage for a lineup who’s projected for six runs against a terrible Wade LeBlanc.

Third Base

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Alex Bregman (HOU) vs. SEA $5,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Mike Moustakas (CIN) vs. DET $4,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Todd Frazier (TEX) vs. COL $3,200 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High

 
Bregman is one of the best plays on the board, with his .742 SLG and 1.182 OPS against southpaws last season. Moose and Frazier are both good picks with the platoon advantage as well, facing weak pitchers like Spencer Turnbull and Kyle Freeland.

Shortstop

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
Carlos Correa (HOU) vs. SEA $4,400 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Francisco Lindor (CLE) vs. KC $4,500 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Jonathan Villar (MIA) vs. PHI $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐ Medium

 
Let’s keep the righty Astros rolling against Kikuchi. Lindor is also a nice pick against Mike Montgomery and Villar could have success atop the Marlins lineup if Velasquez is having one of his bad days.

Outfield

NAME (TEAM) OPPONENT PRICE MATCHUP RISK
George Springer (HOU) vs. SEA $5,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
J.D. Martinez (BOS) vs. BAL $5,000 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low
Franmil Reyes (CLE) vs. KC $4,100 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Medium
Jordan Luplow (CLE) vs. KC $3,900 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ High
Michael Brantley (HOU) vs. SEA $3,300 ⭐⭐⭐⭐ Low

 
Martinez and Springer can be seen below. Reyes and Luplow traditionally destroy lefties and are both nice values around $4,000. Brantley is left on left but it’s crazy that he’s just $3,300 in the heart of the best lineup on this slate.

5 Studs Worth Their Salary

  • J.D. Martinez, BOS ($5,000): J.D. is probably the best play on the board of all the position players, posting an OPS north of 1.300 against lefties last season. LeBlanc won’t be able to slow him down.
  • George Springer, HOU ($5,300): Springer has six hits in nine at-bats against Kikuchi and gets to hit atop one of the best lineups in baseball.
  • Alex Bregman, HOU ($5,100): Bregman raked against lefties last year and should do damage in our Houston stack.
  • Josh Bell, PIT ($4,900): Bell gets the platoon advantage against a weak Dakota Hudson.
  • Zack Greinke, HOU ($10,900): Greinke is the highest-priced pitcher on the board and should roll as a -305 favorite.

5 Notable Players to Fade

  • Jorge Soler, KC ($4,300): This has K’s written all over it against a guy like Carrasco.
  • Shin-Soo Choo, TEX ($4,100): Choo never does well against lefties and may miss the lineup altogether.
  • Nolan Arenado, COL ($4,900): Arenado is traditionally much worse on the road and could struggle against a righty like Corey Kluber.
  • Miguel Sano, MIN ($4,800): Batting eighth worries me at such a high price.
  • Ryan Braun, MIL ($4,700): Why is this guy $4,700? That’s crazy

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