When looking at an NFL DFS slate, I usually begin with these two steps:
- Examining Implied Team Totals and Game Over/Unders
- Identifying Teams to Target and Possible Stacks
Each week, I will share my findings with you after I have completed these first two steps. Throughout this piece, I will reference implied team totals, winning probabilities, and game over/unders that are acquired from our consensus odds collected over at BettingPros.
Games/Teams to Target
- Detroit at Atlanta (Over/Under 56.5)
- Atlanta Team Total: 29.5
- Detroit Team Total: 27.0
- Seattle at Arizona (Over/Under 56.5)
- Seattle Team Total: 30.0
- Arizona Team Total: 26.5
- Green Bay at Houston (Over/Under 56.0)
- Green Bay Team Total: 29.75
- Houston Team Total: 26.25
- Jacksonville at Los Angeles Chargers (Over/Under 49.0)
- Los Angeles Team Total: 28.25
- Jacksonville Team Total: 20.75
DFS Stacks to Target
All salaries are from FanDuel, but these stacks can be utilized on DraftKings as well.
Matthew Stafford (QB – DET): $7,300 / Kenny Golladay (WR – DET): $7,600
The Lions were in a smash-spot last week in Jacksonville against a Jaguars defense that has been getting torched through the air thus far in 2020. However, Jacksonville had an improved passing defense with the return of rookie cornerback C.J. Henderson and valuable coverage linebacker Myles Jack. In addition, the Lions jumped out to an early lead and the Jaguars offense failed to make the game competitive.
As a result, I think some DFS players have soured on Stafford and Golladay after a disappointing Week 6. I’m going right back to the Detroit stack as they prepare for a road matchup in Atlanta. Atlanta is still surrendering the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position after allowing quarterback Kirk Cousins and the Vikings to nearly mount a comeback in Week 6.
Though the Lions are underdogs, they still carry a 27.0 implied team total. The Falcons are much better against the run than they are against the pass, so I expect Stafford to be airing it out in a competitive dome matchup.
While Stafford was disappointing in Week 6, Golladay managed to haul in four receptions for 105 yards against Jacksonville. The Detroit wide receiver drew a pass interference call in the end zone and was also tackled at the one-yard line in Week 6. On the other side, we can bring it back with either WR Calvin Ridley ($8,400) or WR Julio Jones ($8,300) who have proven they can co-exist and both produce in the Atlanta passing game.
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI): $8,400 / DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI): $9,000
In an ugly Monday Night Football game in Week 6, the Cardinals completely embarrassed the Dallas Cowboys 38-10 in what was Andy Dalton‘s first start for America’s Team. As a result, the Cardinals were not forced to throw the ball too much in a game where Kyler Murray finished 9-of-24 passing. With an abysmal 37.5 completion percentage, it is no surprise that Murray only managed to score 28.92 FanDuel fantasy points. Wait. That can’t be right.
Talk about a floor. In a game in which the Cardinals have their lowest passing volume of the entire season and their quarterback cannot complete passes consistently, the second-year signal-caller still posts a great fantasy performance. I expect the Cardinals to need to showcase their passing game more often in Week 7, because, well, Russell Wilson is not Andy Dalton.
Hopkins carries the most expensive price tag out of all wide receivers on the main slate. He was disappointing in the Monday night contest, as he only recorded two receptions for 73 yards, one of which was a 60 yard gain on a crossing route. Hopkins did manage to haul in two of his quarterbacks nine completions on the night, and he had seen at least seven targets in every game prior. Seattle is also allowing the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
The Arizona stack seems like a clear opportunity to pay up to be contrarian. While the game could be popular with a 56.5 over/under, DFS players may try to save salary and look elsewhere. However, the Cardinals duo could prove to be worth the price. The obvious bring-back option is wide receiver D.K. Metcalf ($7,300), but wide receiver Tyler Lockett ($7,400) is a great leverage play who could be lower ownership after a disappointing two games heading into Seattle’s Week 6 bye.
Deshaun Watson (QB – HOU): $8,000 / Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU): $5,900
After a disappointing start to his 2020 season, Watson has rebounded nicely over the past couple of weeks. He delivered an impressive road performance in Week 6 against a Titans defense that is fourth-best at fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position. While the Green Bay matchup is not significantly easier, we did just see Tom Brady have success against a Packers team coming off a bye.
The game expects to see many points scored with an over/under of 56 points. The Texans will be indoors at home and have an above-average implied team total of 26.25 points. We have started to see Watson’s rushing floor emerge once again, as he has recorded 20+ rushing yards in his past two games. He has gone over 300 yards passing in his past three contests as well, averaging three passing TDs in each.
A full $1,000 cheaper in salary compared to teammate wide receiver Will Fuller, Cooks has seen nine and twelve targets in his past two games. While Fuller is being asked to stretch the field, Cooks has worked closer to the line of scrimmage, which allowed him to haul in all nine of his targets in Week 6 for 68 yards and a TD. A shorter average depth of target provides Cooks with a safer floor, but he has plenty of upside, as he displayed in Week 5 with eight receptions for 161 yards and a receiving TD.
If submitting multiple lineups, both quarterbacks, Cooks, Fuller, and Adams should be included in player pools. However, my favorite bring-it-back option for a Houston stack is Green Bay running back Aaron Jones ($8,500). The entire Packers offense was a tremendous disappointment on Sunday in a much-anticipated matchup between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. I expect the Packers offense to bounce-back, and Jones should be at the center of that against a Houston defense that is bottom five in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to the running back position.
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