Welcome to Week 9! Some teams are passed the halfway point of their season already, and I hope that your DFS ventures have been profitable so far. If not, you’ve still got some time to turn things around, and digging into rostership data is a great place to start.
Each week, I’ll break down the projected player roster percentages at the top DFS sites. These figures are generated based on numbers pulled from full-slate contests, so they won’t be perfectly accurate, but they give us a good measurement of who’s popular.
Check out our full Projected Roster % Report here
Quarterback
Josh Allen is close to chalk this week. Bet on him in cash leagues; bet against him in tournaments. The game has the highest projected point total on the slate (54.5 points), and Buffalo is expected to score 25.75 of them. The Seahawks give up the most FanDuel points per game (FDPPG) to opposing signal-callers, and that makes Allen a fantastic play at quarterback here.
Next up, we’ve got two quarterbacks in the 20-30% range: Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert. Murray has a winnable matchup against the Dolphins, but their defense ranks eighth-best against the position. He’s still a high-end QB1, but I don’t know if he’s worth his salary here. Herbert is a bit more of a bargain at his price point, and he should put up lots of points against the Raiders.
Of the guys in the 5-10% bracket, I’m a big fan of Derek Carr. Not only is he the lowest-priced of the bunch, but the Chargers also rank fourth-worst against quarterbacks, so he’s in a very exploitable matchup. If you need a bargain-bin option, he’s your guy.
Running Back, Wide Receiver, and Tight End
We’ve got a pair of cheap options in strong matchups at running back: David Montgomery and James Robinson. For Montgomery, the Titans rank 10th-worst against opposing rushers; for Robinson, the Texans rank third-worst. They’re both good bets for big points days, and they’ll let you stack up studs elsewhere.
Darren Waller also slots into the 30-40% range, and he’s functionally chalk at tight end here. You should bet on him in cash leagues and against him in tournaments. The Chargers are a pretty good matchup, as they rank ninth-worst against the position in terms of FDPPG, and he’s a smart stacking option with Derek Carr.
We only have two players in the 20-30% range, and both of them are running backs. But only of them, Dalvin Cook, will play this week.
I hate to break it to you all, but Austin Ekeler isn’t going to play this week. He’s eligible to return from IR, but there’s no reason to believe that the Chargers will activate him before playing the Raiders. Instead of Ekeler, I would roll with Justin Jackson ($5,900) because he’s cheaper and will actually play. The Raiders’ defense has been particularly exploitable on the ground, too, as they rank fifth-worst against the position.
There are a handful of plays worth noting in the 10-20% range. Julio Jones‘ rostership should skyrocket if Calvin Ridley is held out of Sunday’s game, and Tyler Lockett should be on a higher percentage of rosters since D.K. Metcalf will have to face Tre’Davious White. John Brown and Cole Beasley make smart bargain-bin picks against Seattle’s putrid defense.
Defense
The Atlanta Falcons look like an incredibly popular pick against the Broncos this week. I wouldn’t say that they’re chalk, but they’re close to it — they’re super cheap, and they’re facing a mistake-prone quarterback in Drew Lock.
Elsewhere, Pittsburgh should make a fantastic (albeit expensive) option against the Cowboys. The Steelers average a league-best 4.3 sacks per game, so they will score a ton of points here; the only question is whether you can fit them into your lineup at their current price point. It’s worth noting that a few key defensive playmakers for Baltimore and Houston could miss Sunday’s game due to the coronavirus, so you should keep a close eye on their lineups before you commit to either of them.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.