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Best NBA Plays for No House Advantage’s $25,000 Slam Dunk Contest (1/27)

by Isaiah Sirois | @is_sirois | Featured Writer
Jan 27, 2021

If you haven’t checked out No House Advantage (NHA) yet, you’ve been missing out. The site combines prop betting with daily fantasy sports (DFS) — users select a designated number of player props each day, rank them, and receive points based on those rankings if the prop hits.

The website offers contests on a wide range of sports, including the NFL, NBA, MLB, and PGA. I started covering NHA’s NBA slates for FantasyPros during last August’s bubble, and my columns earned an overall 26-9 record on NBA bets, including three perfect lineups. Since then, the site has expanded dramatically, and tonight, they’ve put together a $25,000, 1,400-user tournament.

New users can sign up using the promo code “PROS” to receive a $20 free play and a first deposit match of up to $200!

Here are the plays I’m targeting for tonight’s 1,400-person $25,000 Slam Dunk contest.

New users can sign up using the promo code “PROS” to receive a $20 free play and a first deposit match of up to $200! >>

Identifying Value

It’s a bit difficult to find value early in the season, as we don’t have much head-to-head matchup data, but I use a three-part test to help me identify value:

  1. Per-Game Averages: How much the player averages of a given stat per game. I pull all of my player averages straight from Basketball Reference’s 2020-21 Player Stats: Totals.
  2. Defense vs. Position: How much of a given stat their opponent allows to their position per game. All figures are pulled from FantasyPros’ Defense vs. Position tool.
  3. Defense vs. Position Per Minute * Player’s Average Minutes Per Game: How much of a given stat a defense allows to a position per minute multiplied by the player’s average minutes per game. The rate in (3) is then balanced with (2) to correct for players who have rotational roles or don’t start. Data used in this step comes from the two above sources.

Once I have those numbers, I calculate the absolute value of the differences between them and the posted line. I then weigh that number differently based on the stat we’re looking at to prevent skew. Without that adjustment, point lines would always be at the top, and three-point lines would always be at the bottom.

Due to publishing deadlines, this chart excludes data from Tuesday’s slate of games.

The Model’s Recommended Props

For my first eight picks, I’ll stick to things the model likes.

  1. Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): OVER 1.5 Three-Pointers
    MPJ has gone over this total in all but one of his games this year — his limited return from a multi-week absence. He most recently sunk six three-pointers against the Mavericks.
  2. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): UNDER 42.5 Points and Rebounds
    While it’s hard to bet against a superstar like Giannis, his posted lines are well above his per-game averages. I’m a little wary of this play due to Toronto’s poor DvP rankings against power forwards, but if you expect the Bucks to blow out the Raptors, he may not get the minutes necessary to go over.
  3. Luka Doncic (DAL): UNDER 29.5 Points
    Again, it’s always hard to bet against stars. That said, the Utah Jazz have been strong against opposing point guards, and Doncic’s posted point total sits two above his per-game average.
  4. Trae Young (ATL): UNDER 10.5 Assists
    Young has cleared this total in just four of his 15 games. He probably won’t clear it tonight, either, as the Nets rank ninth in assists allowed to point guards.
  5. Anthony Davis (LAL): UNDER 25.5 Points
    Davis has gone over this total in only five of his 18 games, and he’s done it once in his last seven. Don’t expect him to right the ship against the Sixers, as they’ve been strong against opposing power forwards.
  6. Bradley Beal (WAS): UNDER 34.5 Points
    Beal may be averaging an absurd 34.5 points per game, but he just played 35 minutes against the Rockets last night, and he only mustered 33. The Pelicans play at the fifth-slowest pace, too, which may keep Beal from hitting the over.
  7. Kevin Durant (BKN): OVER 6.5 Rebounds
    The Hawks give up the second-most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards. With Durant averaging a full board above this total, he’s a safe option to target against Atlanta.
  8. Lonzo Ball (NOR): OVER 11.5 Points
    Ball’s per-game average sits a half-point above this total, and the Wizards give up the fourth-most points per game to opposing point guards.

Isaiah’s Recommended Props

I’ll round out this lineup with two plays that are stronger bets than my model suggests.

  1. James Harden (BKN): OVER 8.5 Assists
    Since the model works with season-long averages, it doesn’t adjust for the James Harden trade. Harden has averaged 11.3 assists per game since arriving in Brooklyn, and he’s failed to clear this total just once.
  2. Deandre Ayton (PHO): OVER 15.5 Points
    With Devin Booker out, the Suns will have to lean on Ayton and Chris Paul a bit more. I like Ayton’s points over here because the Oklahoma City Thunder may not have Al Horford, and even if they do, they’re still giving up the eighth-most points per game to centers. That said, if Horford dresses, consider pivoting to Paul’s points over. Both players cleared their posted totals when Booker missed Saturday’s game against the Nuggets.

New users can sign up using the promo code “PROS” to receive a $20 free play and a first deposit match of up to $200! >>

Beyond our daily fantasy basketball content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Basketball Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy basketball season.

Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.

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