DraftKings DFS NBA Advice: Sunday (1/10)
We’re officially a week into 2021, and I hope that you’re sticking to your New Years’ resolutions. If you’re planning to avoid the Sunday scaries by watching some basketball and playing some DFS, I’ve got you covered.
Each week, I’ll be here to profile some strong value plays, studs, and duds for Sunday’s DraftKings slate. I’ll do my best to point you in the right direction, and if you have any questions, you can hit me up on Twitter at @is_sirois.
I. Value Plays
- Elfrid Payton and the Knicks will take on the Nuggets tonight, and they’re giving up the third-most DraftKings points per game (DKPPG) to point guards.
- Patty Mills is a bit of a contrarian play. The Spurs gave him 30 minutes last night, fewer minutes than most of their studs, and he could see some extra minutes tonight as a result.
- A depleted Celtics team will take on the Heat tonight, and Payton Pritchard should be in line for some extra work as a result.
- Malik Beasley scored 29 points in 40 minutes against the Spurs last night, and as long as he sees a similar usage rate, he should be in line for plenty of points again tonight. Because of his relatively affordable salary, he’s the only Spurs/T’Wolves player who saw a ton of run last night that I’m still targeting.
- Joe Harris and the Nets will take on the Thunder’s 13th-worst defense against shooting guards, and he should have an above-average day against them. For some perspective, he averages 25.1 DKPPG.
- The Golden State Warriors give up the sixth-most DKPPG to opposing small forwards and the 13th-most to opposing shooting guards, the two positions where Powell is eligible. Even if Powell has to come off the bench, he’s flashed some upside when given a chance.
- I’m targeting Raptors and Warriors in what should be a high-scoring game, and OG Anunoby is no exception. He’s fairly inexpensive against the Warriors’ sixth-worst defense against small forwards.
- Luguentz Dort is inexpensive for a starter. Sure, he’s averaging around 30 minutes per game, which could be better, but he averages 21.3 DKPPG and should hit value even on an average night.
- Like Mills, Jarrett Culver didn’t see a ton of minutes in last night’s game between the Spurs and T’Wolves, and he could see more run tonight.
- Darius Bazley has a pair of double-doubles in his last four games, and he has a solid chance to hit value at this price point with his average of 28.7 DKPPG.
- As I said, I’m targeting Warrior and Raptors, and I like Kelly Oubre’s chances to hit value at just $5,000. After a down series against the Clippers, he should bounce back and return to his 20-plus DKPPG pace.
- Jarred Vanderbilt may no longer have as much of a role with Karl-Anthony Towns back in the lineup, but I’m not sure if the T’Wolves will thrust KAT into the back half of a back-to-back, and Vanderbilt is one of their better-rested bigs right now.
- I usually don’t include studs in the value plays section, but it’s a Nikola Jokic kind of night. More on this below.
- If you’re trying to spend down at center, Montrezl Harrell makes a decent pivot against the Rockets, as Houston gives up the fourth-most DKPPG to the position.
II. Five Notable Players to Feature
- Nikola Jokic (DEN) $11,000 at NYK: The Knicks are giving up the fifth-most DKPPG to opposing centers. Jokic should keep feasting against them, and he should score close to his average of 60 DKPPG.
- Stephen Curry (GSW) $10,100 vs. TOR: As I said above, I’m targeting Raptors and Warriors — the 233-point projected total is the second-highest on the slate, and Curry should do a lot of the damage.
- Bam Adebayo (MIA) $8,800 at BOS: The Celtics won’t have most of their key offensive starters tonight. As long as Adebayo gets the minutes, he should dominate in the paint against Daniel Theis.
- Fred VanVleet (TOR) $8,500 at GSW: The Warriors allow the second-most three-pointers per game (14.9), which is right in FVV’s wheelhouse.
- Kyle Lowry (TOR) $8,300 at GSW: See above. Lowry has been extra efficient from deep this year, as he’s averaging 3.8 three-pointers per game, and he’s got a high ceiling tonight.
III. Five Notable Players to Fade
- James Harden (HOU) $10,800 vs. LAL: Nothing against Harden, but he isn’t worth the massive salary tonight against the Lakers’ defense.
- Anthony Davis (LAL) $9,700 at HOU: Davis is continuing to deal with an injury. He missed Los Angeles’ last game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they ease him back into the lineup.
- Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN) $9,800 vs. SAS: I’m avoiding the Spurs and T’Wolves starers who logged a ton of work last night. KAT played 37 minutes in his first game back, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that tick downward tonight.
- D’Angelo Russell (MIN) $8,200 vs. SAS: Russell played 38 minutes last night. While he’s young and healthy enough not to need rest this evening, I’d avoid him at this high-end salary.
- DeMar DeRozan (SAS) $7,700 at MIN: The 31-year-old DeRozan played 44 minutes last night, and I wouldn’t consider paying this much for a player who’s likely to see a reduced workload.
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