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Strategy

In 2021, the fantasy football late-round quarterback strategy is quite mainstream. No longer are we drafting the top signal-callers in the first round of drafts. A growing awareness of the associated opportunity cost has rendered that notion unimaginable.

So we’re past that. But does it mean we should still sit out the first run of elite quarterbacks come draft day? In 2020, that would’ve been a losing strategy. That’s because, as TJ Hernandez of 4for4.com points out, QB ADP is more efficient now than it used to be. TJ points out that back in 2015, seven QBs drafted outside the top 12 wound up finishing as top 12 options. Last year, that number dropped to just three.

Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson were over drafted last season, but the next tier of dual threat QBs absolutely smashed — Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott (pre-injury). These were the names that we expected to be great for fantasy purposes, and their passing/rushing combo made it possible.

It’s critical to note that this is different than the way it once was. Pure pocket passers (who are considered elite) are more likely to “bust” given their dependance on touchdown rate, which is volatile year to year. Rushing production and an evolving number of analytically minded organizations (who are more aggressive on offense) combine to give the elite QBs a more predictable floor/ceiling combination.

Add in the fact that these upper-echelon QBs come with reasonable ADPs, and it’s suddenly okay to invest “early” in the position again. Additionally, using a pick on an elite quarterback likely means avoiding the Running Back Dead Zone as well. By no means do you have to secure a QB early, but hopefully the above data helps you realize it’s a perfectly fine strategy. Of course, if you miss out on Tier 1, it’s still encouraged to wait a bit before picking your starter.

Last point – the profiles for both Trey Lance and Justin Fields seem to align with those of the top tier. However, their acquisition cost is basically nothing since neither has been named the starter. I firmly believe that their ADPs would be much higher otherwise. Since I expect both to start early in the season, I view them as must-have targets in upcoming drafts, regardless of who you’ve taken at QB up to that point.

My '21 core FF philosophies

🏈 Regardless of how your first two picks go, start loading up on WRs from Rounds 3-7 ish (maybe mix in an elite TE or QB)

🏈 Regardless of what else you've done at QB by the later rounds, leave every draft with one of Trey Lance or Justin Fields

— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) August 26, 2021

Rankings and Notes

The esteemed Zachary Hanshew has already covered running backs and wide receivers in similar looking articles for us. You can check them out by clicking those links, and I recommend that you do. For quarterbacks, I’ve included my top-20 along with notes on each player.

Must-have targets: Trey Lance, Justin Fields

Players to avoid at ADP: Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford

Sleepers: Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence

Tight ends coming next week!

• The Ultimate Fantasy Football Guide to Running Backs
• The Ultimate Fantasy Football Guide to Wide Receivers

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Brendan Tuma is a featured writer at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, check out his archive and follow him @toomuchtuma.