Last week in my intro to this article, I ran through several patterns that were taking shape in the NFL, with respect to which QBs and teams are worth targeting for fantasy defenses. Several of those narratives were defied in Week 4. The Jets (with Zach Wilson), Giants (Daniel Jones), and Colts (Carson Wentz) all picked up their first win of the season, with their respective QBs giving their best performances to date. All three teams are certainly still on the list of teams to target, but I would be lying if I said my confidence wasn’t shaken, especially for the Giants. Similarly, Bears QB Justin Fields bounced back from a disastrous first NFL start in Week 3. He didn’t really do much in Week 4, but he did avoid repeating the incredible nine sacks he took in his debut as a starter.
Both the Texans and the Dolphins will be running out backup QBs for at least two more weeks until their starters get healthy. In the Texans’ case, that makes them the unequivocal best target for DSTs while they’re led by Davis Mills, who threw four interceptions in a shutout loss to the Bills last week. The Dolphins are in a better position with Jacoby Brissett, who is pretty good by backup QB standards. “Good by backup QB standards” is still not great in the wider context of the NFL, so the Dolphins will be a reasonable team to target, if not top-tier like the Texans. The Bears will also return to Andy Dalton as soon as he’s healthy. It could be sooner than Week 6, but I’m currently still expecting Justin Fields to start for the Bears this week.
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Ranks
Even though we don’t have teams on bye yet, the schedule lines up in a way that makes this week kind of rough for defenses. (Thanks to the new 18-week schedule, byes start in Week 6, compared to Week 4 in previous years.) There are still a couple of good options though, including Atlanta and Las Vegas at very low rostership. The rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | NE | @HOU | 39.5 | -9 | 15.25 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.13 | 8.96 | 58% |
| 2 | ATL | NYJ | 46 | -3.5 | 21.25 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.14 | 8.07 | 2% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 3 | LV | CHI | 45.5 | -5.5 | 20 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.09 | 6.71 | 11% |
| 4 | BAL | IND | 47 | -7 | 20 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.09 | 6.31 | 72% |
| 5 | DAL | NYG | 52 | -7 | 22.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 6.13 | 21% |
| 6 | TB | MIA | 48 | -10.5 | 18.75 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.08 | 5.86 | 96% |
| 7 | PIT | DEN | 40 | -1 | 19.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 5.84 | 69% |
| 8 | ARI | SF | 50 | -5.5 | 22.25 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 5.76 | 33% |
| 9 | TEN | @JAC | 48.5 | -4 | 22.25 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.13 | 5.74 | 73% |
| 10 | GB | @CIN | 49.5 | -3 | 23.25 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 5.72 | 37% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 11 | WAS | NO | 44.5 | 1.5 | 23 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.10 | 5.69 | 63% |
| 12 | CAR | PHI | 44.5 | -4 | 20.25 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.08 | 5.64 | 44% |
| 13 | PHI | @CAR | 44.5 | 4 | 24.25 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.10 | 5.52 | 4% |
| 14 | HOU | NE | 39.5 | 9 | 24.25 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.10 | 5.48 | 1% |
| 15 | MIN | DET | 49.5 | -7.5 | 21 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 5.33 | 16% |
| 16 | LAR | @SEA | 54.5 | -1.5 | 26.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.09 | 5.19 | 95% |
| 17 | DEN | @PIT | 40 | 1 | 20.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 5.05 | 88% |
| 18 | NYJ | @ATL | 46 | 3.5 | 24.75 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 5.05 | 1% |
| 19 | SEA | LAR | 54.5 | 1.5 | 28 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 4.94 | 7% |
| 20 | CLE | @LAC | 49.5 | -1 | 24.25 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 4.72 | 68% |
| 21 | JAC | TEN | 48.5 | 4 | 26.25 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 4.67 | 1% |
| 22 | NO | @WAS | 44.5 | -1.5 | 21.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.09 | 4.67 | 88% |
| 23 | CIN | GB | 49.5 | 3 | 26.25 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.09 | 4.66 | 65% |
| 24 | KC | BUF | 56.5 | -2.5 | 27 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.09 | 4.46 | 53% |
| 25 | SF | @ARI | 50 | 5.5 | 27.75 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.09 | 4.26 | 75% |
| 26 | LAC | CLE | 49.5 | 1 | 25.25 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.10 | 4.22 | 22% |
| 27 | CHI | @LV | 45.5 | 5.5 | 25.5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.09 | 4.12 | 50% |
| 28 | IND | @BAL | 47 | 7 | 27 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.08 | 3.93 | 49% |
| 29 | DET | @MIN | 49.5 | 7.5 | 28.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.09 | 3.78 | 3% |
| 30 | NYG | @DAL | 52 | 7 | 29.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.08 | 3.54 | 3% |
| 31 | MIA | @TB | 48 | 10.5 | 29.25 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.09 | 3.46 | 24% |
| 32 | BUF | @KC | 56.5 | 2.5 | 29.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.09 | 3.22 | 96% |
Takes
- NE @ HOU: Houston quarterback Davis Mills threw four interceptions last week. The third-string QB exceeded expectations in Weeks 2 and 3, but that isn’t saying much – expectations were extremely low. In Week 4 the wheels fell off. This is not a functional offense, as evidenced by the projection of just 15.25 points. A projection under 22 is generally worth targeting, but anything below 18 is true gold mine territory. Tyrod Taylor is eligible to return from IR in Week 6, but my understanding is that that would be an unlikely timetable for his strained hamstring.
- ATL vs NYJ: Zach Wilson and the Jets did surprisingly well against The Titans last week. Wilson had his first game with fewer than four sacks (suffering just one) and only threw one interception. Like the Titans, the Falcons aren’t a particularly strong defense, but one game is not enough to scare me away from targeting the Jets.
- LV vs CHI: Matt Nagy has said that Andy Dalton will take the starting QB job back from Justin Fields as soon as he’s healthy. It’s not yet clear if that will be this week – I’m currently operating under the assumption that Fields will start again. After a disasterous first career start in Week 3 where Fields took nine sacks, he was actually kind of OK last week. His true sack rate isn’t nine per game, but it’s not going to be one per game either. I’m happy to bet on it being high, and on Fields continuing to not throw touchdowns.
- BAL vs IND: Continuing the pattern of quarterbacks who played decently in Week 4 after a bad start to the season, Carson Wentz helped the Colts pick up their first win. I don’t really expect them to repeat the feat, especially given that Vegas projects them for just 20 points. While Wentz has kept the sacks to a moderate 2.5 per game this year, I think the upside of 5+ sack games that have been common in his career is still there.
- DAL vs NYG: Giants quarterback Daniel Jones also lead his team to their first win, in a rare zero-sack game. As with Wentz I don’t think this is a bad omen for defenses, Jones’ high career sack rate is still the main driver of my expectations for him going forward.
- TB vs MIA: Tua Tagovailoa is expected to return in Week 6, so we still have a couple more weeks of Jacoby Brissett, who is more competent than a typical backup. Brissett is not particularly turnover-prone, but he still has a high enough sack rate to be interesting for opposing defenses. Combined with a low team projection of under 19 points, I feel pretty good about starting Tampa Bay this week.
- PIT vs DEN: The Broncos’ 3-0 start said a lot more about their schedule than the Broncos themselves. Things came back down to earth against Baltimore last week, where Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos scored just 7 points. Like Brissett, Bridgewater has a low turnover rate and a moderate sack rate. That isn’t particularly appealing for a defense, but combined with a weak offense overall the Broncos are a fine team to target, especially when they’re on the road.
- ARI vs SF: Rookie QB Trey Lance took over for the 49ers last week and played pretty well. Garoppolo might still play this week, but if he doesn’t – which is my current expectation – I’m happy to start a strong defense like Arizona against a mostly unproven rookie like Lance.
- TEN @ JAC: Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence got things under control last week in the sense that he had his first game with no interceptions, but he didn’t throw any passing TDs either. (He did run for one, for what it’s worth) I still expect a lot of turnover potential until Lawrence can do this consistently, so this pick has plenty of upside.
- GB @ CIN: This is one of those weeks where there aren’t 10 teams I have a lot of confidence in. After taking five sacks in each of the first two weeks, Joe Burrow has played quite well in the past two. Despite the high points projection of 23.25 (high for the top 10, not in the league overall), the Bengals still get the nod as a low-end target thanks to Burrow’s high sack rate in his career so far.
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Jacob Herlin is a Data Scientist for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, check out his archive and follow him @jacoblawherlin.
