NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 6 (2021)
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Week 5 wasn’t quite as good as Week 4 when I had Cordarrelle Patterson (RB – ATL) as my top call, but overall not a bad week as I had Samaje Perine (RB – CIN), Damien Williams (RB – CHI), and Ricky Seals-Jones (TE – WAS) as some of my better calls. This week, there are a ton of injuries to monitor, so a lot can change from now until Sunday, but as I write this on Thursday night, these are my top values for Week 6…
Carson Wentz (QB – PHI): $5,400 vs. HOU
Coming off a 400-yard 2 touchdown performance against the Ravens on Monday night, Wentz gets the Monday misprice treatment as DraftKings releases their prices before the Monday night game. The Texan’s pass defense actually ranks in the top 10 in pass DVOA — but it’s fools gold — their run defense is so bad that it makes their pass defense seem better. Wentz at $5,400 is well worth the price for his upside.
Honorable Mention: Taylor Heinicke (QB – WAS):$5,800 vs. KC
Teddy Bridgewater (QB – DEN): $6,600 vs. LVR
Bridgewater currently ranks in the top seven in adjusted completion percentage (per FTNfantasy.com) — a stat that removes spikes, passes thrown away, batted balls, and passes while being hit. Some of the quarterbacks that rank above him are a who’s who of the elite guys like Kyler Murray (QB – ARI), Dak Prescott (QB – DAL), and Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC).
The Raiders blitz 15.2-percent of the time, the third-lowest in the league, and thus have one of the lowest Hurry-percentages at only 8.3-percent (per Pro-Football-Reference.com). In other words, Bridgewater should have plenty of time in the pocket and be his usually efficient self.
Honorable Mention: Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE): $6,800 vs. ARI
A.J. Dillon (RB – GB): $4,900 @ CHI
Dillon had 12 touches last week in Cincinnati after getting 16 touches the week previous. He has carved out a nice role for himself behind Aaron Jones (RB – GB), and he found pay dirt for the first time this year in Week 5. Dillon is the thunder to Jones’ lightning, and when they get in close, Dillon could be called on to hammer it in.
Chris Evans (RB – CIN): $4,000 @ DET
Samaje Perine is all but ruled out with a Covid designation, and Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) is likely to still be limited. Evans is a pass-catching running back, but could also get some carries with Mixon not at 100 percent. The Lions are 28th in rushing defense DVOA, and they are 32nd in passing defense DVOA against the running back position (per FootballOutsiders.com).
Honorable Mention: Darrel Williams (RB – KC): $4,900 @ WFT
Darrel Williams (RB – KC): $5,200 @ WAS
Truth be told, I’m not super high in Williams this week, but he will be a very chalky value play this week, so I felt I had to include him. He, of course, plays in one of the top offenses in the league, and just being on the field with the Chiefs gives you a good chance to score a touchdown. If Williams caught passes, I might be more interested, but the Chiefs may elect to give some of the passing down work to Jerick McKinnon (RB – KC).
Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI): $5,500 vs. GB
Herbert is the last man standing in the Bears backfield and thus becomes an excellent value. David Montgomery (RB – CHI) is on IR and Damien Williams was just placed on the Covid list and is very unlikely to be cleared in time to play. Herbert looked good last week with 18 carries for 75 yards. He also had two goal-to-go carries but wasn’t able to punch it in. Only three teams are worse than the Packers in rushing defense DVOA, the Chiefs, the Chargers, and the Texans.
Honorable Mention: A.J. Dillon (RB – GB): $5,400 @ CHI
Hunter Renfrow (WR – LV): $4,900 @ DEN
Renfrow has quietly had a really good season, scoring in double-digits in all five games so far this season. He has had at least six targets in every game, including eight targets in each of the last two games. A player like Renfrow is hard to keep from getting his catches with his short-area quickness from the slot. At $4,900, he gives you a solid floor for cash games but lacks the upside needed for a tournament.
Rondale Moore (WR – ARI): $4,600 @ CLE
Moore, for the first time this season, played the same number of total snaps as Christian Kirk (WR – ARI). Moore did play five snaps on special teams to get him equal to Kirk, but no matter, Moore’s snap percentage has continued to rise this season. The Browns are a good run defense, but rank 19th in passing defense DVOA.
Honorable Mention: Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET): $4,200 vs. CIN
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET): $5,200 vs. CIN
St. Brown has come on of late with eight targets in each of the last two games, scoring 13-plus points in both of those games. With the news that Quintez Cephus (WR – DET) will miss the rest of the season, St. Brown should see a few more targets come his way.
Honorable Mention: Terrace Marshall (WR – CAR): $4,900 vs. MIN
Mo Alie-Cox (TE – IND): $3,100 vs. HOU
Alie-Cox has 6 catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns over his last two games. The Texans are actually good at defending the pass, ranking ninth in DVOA, however, they are 28th in passing DVOA against the tight end position. Alie-Cox can find the end-zone again this week.
Honorable Mention: Ricky Seals-Jones (TE- WAS): $3,000 vs. KC
Evan Engram (TE – NYG): $5,000 vs. LAR
Engram has increased his yardage total in each of his three games this season after starting the season on the injured list. The Rams’ defense is one of the best in the league, but the way you attack the Rams is in the middle of the field. They rank 28th in DVOA against the tight end position, and with a few of the Giants pass catches likely to miss this game, Engram should continue to be involved in the offense.
Honorable Mention: Mo Alie-Cox (TE- IND): $5,000 vs. HOU
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